Estimation of contribution of changes in classic risk factors to trends in coronary-event rates across the WHO MONICA Project populations

Background From the mid-1980s to mid-1990s, the WHO MONICA Project monitored coronary events and classic risk factors for coronary heart disease (CHD) in 38 populations from 21 countries. We assessed the extent to which changes in these risk factors explain the variation in the trends in coronary-event rates across the populations. Methods In men and women aged 35-64 years, non-fatal myocardial infarction and coronary deaths were registered continuously to assess trends in rates of coronary events. We carried out population surveys to estimate trends in risk factors. Trends in event rates were regressed on trends in risk score and in individual risk factors. Findings Smoking rates decreased in most male populations but trends were mixed in women; mean blood pressures and cholesterol concentrations decreased, body-mass index increased, and overall risk scores and coronary-event rates decreased. The model of trends in 10-year coronary-event rates against risk scores and single risk factors showed a poor fit, but this was improved with a 4-year time lag for coronary events. The explanatory power of the analyses was limited by imprecision of the estimates and homogeneity of trends in the study populations. Interpretation Changes in the classic risk factors seem to partly explain the variation in population trends in CHD. Residual variance is attributable to difficulties in measurement and analysis, including time lag, and to factors that were not included, such as medical interventions. The results support prevention policies based on the classic risk factors but suggest potential for prevention beyond these.

Effects of a program of intervention on parental distress following infant death

A longitudinal study of 144 patents (65 fathers, 79 mothers) was conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of a program of intervention in relieving the psychological distress of parents affected by infant death. Participants were assessed in terms of their psychiatric disturbance, depression, anxiety, physical symptoms, dyadic adjustment, and coping strategies. The experimental group (n = 84) was offered an intervention program comprising the use of specially designed resources and contact with a trained grief worker. A control group (n = 60) was given routine community care. Parental reactions were assessed at four to six weeks postloss (prior to the implementation of the intervention program), at six months postloss, and at 15 months postloss. A series of multivariate analyses of valiance revealed that the intervention was effective in reducing the distress of parents, particularly those assessed prior to the intervention as being at high-risk of developing mourning difficulties. Effects of the intervention were noted in terms of parents' overall psychiatric disturbance, marital quality, and paternal coping strategies.

High HIV incidence and prevalence among young women in rural South Africa: Developing a cohort for intervention trials

Objective: To measure prevalence and model incidence of HIV infection. Setting: 2013 consecutive pregnant women attending public sector antenatal clinics in 1997 in Hlabisa health district, South Africa. Historical seroprevalence data, 1992-1995. Methods: Serum remaining from syphilis testing was tested anonymously for antibodies to HIV to determine seroprevalence. Two models, allowing for differential mortality between HIV-positive and HIV-negative people, were used. The first used serial seroprevalence data to estimate trends in annual incidence. The second, a maximum likelihood model, took account of changing force of infection and age-dependent risk of infection, to estimate age-specific HIV incidence in 1997. Multiple logistic regression provided adjusted odds ratios (OR) for risk factors for prevalent HIV infection. Results: Estimated annual HIV incidence increased from 4% in 1992/1993 to 10% in 1996/1997. In 1997, highest age-specific incidence was 16% among women aged between 20 and 24 years. in 1997, overall prevalence was 26% (95% confidence interval [CI], 24%-28%) and at 34% was highest among women aged between 20 and 24 years. Young age (<30 years; odds ratio [OR], 2.1; p = .001), unmarried status (OR 2.2; p = .001) and living in less remote parts of the district (OR 1.5; p = .002) were associated with HIV prevalence in univariate analysis. Associations were less strong in multivariate analysis. Partner's migration status was not associated with HIV infection. Substantial heterogeneity of HIV prevalence by clinic was observed (range 17%-31%; test for trend, p = .001). Conclusions: This community is experiencing an explosive HIV epidemic. Young, single women in the more developed parts of the district would form an appropriate cohort to test, and benefit from, interventions such as vaginal microbicides and HIV vaccines.

A model for predicting the future incidence of coronary heart disease within percentiles of coronary heart disease risk

Background We present a method (The CHD Prevention Model) for modelling the incidence of fatal and nonfatal coronary heart disease (CHD) within various CHD risk percentiles of an adult population. The model provides a relatively simple tool for lifetime risk prediction for subgroups within a population. It allows an estimation of the absolute primary CHD risk in different populations and will help identify subgroups of the adult population where primary CHD prevention is most appropriate and cost-effective. Methods The CHD risk distribution within the Australian population was modelled, based on the prevalence of CHD risk, individual estimates of integrated CHD risk, and current CHD mortality rates. Predicted incidence of first fatal and nonfatal myocardial infarction within CHD risk strata of the Australian population was determined. Results Approximately 25% of CHD deaths were predicted to occur amongst those in the top 10 percentiles of integrated CHD risk, regardless of age group or gender. It was found that while all causes survival did not differ markedly between percentiles of CHD risk before the ages of around 50-60, event-free survival began visibly to differ about 5 years earlier. Conclusions The CHD Prevention Model provides a means of predicting future CHD incidence amongst various strata of integrated CHD risk within an adult population. It has significant application both in individual risk counselling and in the identification of subgroups of the population where drug therapy to reduce CHD risk is most cost-effective. J Cardiovasc Risk 8:31-37 (C) 2001 Lippincott Williams & Wilkins.

Mathematical models in percutaneous absorption

A number of mathematical models have been used to describe percutaneous absorption kinetics. In general, most of these models have used either diffusion-based or compartmental equations. The object of any mathematical model is to a) be able to represent the processes associated with absorption accurately, b) be able to describe/summarize experimental data with parametric equations or moments, and c) predict kinetics under varying conditions. However, in describing the processes involved, some developed models often suffer from being of too complex a form to be practically useful. In this chapter, we attempt to approach the issue of mathematical modeling in percutaneous absorption from four perspectives. These are to a) describe simple practical models, b) provide an overview of the more complex models, c) summarize some of the more important/useful models used to date, and d) examine sonic practical applications of the models. The range of processes involved in percutaneous absorption and considered in developing the mathematical models in this chapter is shown in Fig. 1. We initially address in vitro skin diffusion models and consider a) constant donor concentration and receptor conditions, b) the corresponding flux, donor, skin, and receptor amount-time profiles for solutions, and c) amount- and flux-time profiles when the donor phase is removed. More complex issues, such as finite-volume donor phase, finite-volume receptor phase, the presence of an efflux. rate constant at the membrane-receptor interphase, and two-layer diffusion, are then considered. We then look at specific models and issues concerned with a) release from topical products, b) use of compartmental models as alternatives to diffusion models, c) concentration-dependent absorption, d) modeling of skin metabolism, e) role of solute-skin-vehicle interactions, f) effects of vehicle loss, a) shunt transport, and h) in vivo diffusion, compartmental, physiological, and deconvolution models. We conclude by examining topics such as a) deep tissue penetration, b) pharmacodynamics, c) iontophoresis, d) sonophoresis, and e) pitfalls in modeling.

Blockade of vascular smooth muscle cell proliferation and intimal thickening after balloon injury by the sulfated oligosaccharide PI-88: Phosphomannopentaose sulfate directly binds FGF-2, blocks cellular signaling, and inhibits proliferation

Percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty is a frequently used interventional technique to reopen arteries that have narrowed because of atherosclerosis. Restenosis, or renarrowing of the artery shortly after angioplasty, is a major limitation to the success of the procedure and is due mainly to smooth muscle cell accumulation in the artery wall at the site of balloon injury. In the present study, we demonstrate that the antiangiogenic sulfated oligosaccharide, PI-88, inhibits primary vascular smooth muscle cell proliferation and reduces intimal thickening 14 days after balloon angioplasty of rat and rabbit arteries. PI-88 reduced heparan sulfate content in the injured artery wall and prevented change in smooth muscle phenotype. However, the mechanism of PI-88 inhibition was not merely confined to the antiheparanase activity of this compound. PI-88 blocked extracellular signal-regulated kinase-1/2 (ERK1/2) activity within minutes of smooth muscle cell injury. It facilitated FGF-2 release from uninjured smooth muscle cells in vitro, and super-released FGF-2 after injury while inhibiting ERK1/2 activation. PI-88 inhibited the decrease in levels of FGF-2 protein in the rat artery wall within 8 minutes of injury. PI-88 also blocked injury-inducible ERK phosphorylation, without altering the clotting time in these animals. Optical biosensor studies revealed that PI-88 potently inhibited (K-i 10.3 nmol/L) the interaction of FGF-2 with heparan sulfate. These findings show for the first time the capacity of this sulfated oligosaccharide to directly bind FGF-2, block cellular signaling and proliferation in vitro, and inhibit injury-induced smooth muscle cell hyperplasia in two animal models. As such, this study demonstrates a new role for PI-88 as an inhibitor of intimal thickening after balloon angioplasty. The full text of this article is available online at http://www.circresaha.org.