A fast and robust statistical test based on likelihood ratio with Bartlett correction to identify Granger causality between gene sets

We propose a likelihood ratio test ( LRT) with Bartlett correction in order to identify Granger causality between sets of time series gene expression data. The performance of the proposed test is compared to a previously published bootstrapbased approach. LRT is shown to be significantly faster and statistically powerful even within non- Normal distributions. An R package named gGranger containing an implementation for both Granger causality identification tests is also provided.

A robust Bayesian approach to null intercept measurement error model with application to dental data

Measurement error models often arise in epidemiological and clinical research. Usually, in this set up it is assumed that the latent variable has a normal distribution. However, the normality assumption may not be always correct. Skew-normal/independent distribution is a class of asymmetric thick-tailed distributions which includes the Skew-normal distribution as a special case. In this paper, we explore the use of skew-normal/independent distribution as a robust alternative to null intercept measurement error model under a Bayesian paradigm. We assume that the random errors and the unobserved value of the covariate (latent variable) follows jointly a skew-normal/independent distribution, providing an appealing robust alternative to the routine use of symmetric normal distribution in this type of model. Specific distributions examined include univariate and multivariate versions of the skew-normal distribution, the skew-t distributions, the skew-slash distributions and the skew contaminated normal distributions. The methods developed is illustrated using a real data set from a dental clinical trial. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Bayesian Analysis for the Generalized Lognormal Distribution Applied to Failure Time Analysis

There are several versions of the lognormal distribution in the statistical literature, one is based in the exponential transformation of generalized normal distribution (GN). This paper presents the Bayesian analysis for the generalized lognormal distribution (logGN) considering independent non-informative Jeffreys distributions for the parameters as well as the procedure for implementing the Gibbs sampler to obtain the posterior distributions of parameters. The results are used to analyze failure time models with right-censored and uncensored data. The proposed method is illustrated using actual failure time data of computers.

Axial ligand influence on geometries, charge distributions and electronic structures of iron tetraazamacrocycle [Fe((II))TIM(X)(Y)](2+) complexes assessed by Density Functional Theory

We employed the Density Functional Theory along with small basis sets, B3LYP/LANL2DZ, for the study of FeTIM complexes with different pairs of axial ligands (CO, H(2)O, NH(3), imidazole and CH(3)CN). These calculations did not result in relevant changes of molecular quantities as bond lengths, vibrational frequencies and electronic populations supporting any significant back-donation to the carbonyl or acetonitrile axial ligands. Moreover, a back-donation mechanism to the macrocycle cannot be used to explain the observed changes in molecular properties along these complexes with CO or CH(3)CN. This work also indicates that complexes with CO show smaller binding energies and are less stable than complexes with CH(3)CN. Further, the electronic band with the largest intensity in the visible region (or close to this region) is associated to the transition from an occupied 3d orbital on iron to an empty pi* orbital located at the macrocycle. The energy of this Metal-to-Ligand Charge Transfer (MLCT) transition shows a linear relation to the total charge of the macrocycle in these complexes as given by Mulliken or Natural Population Analysis (NPA) formalisms. Finally, the macrocycle total charge seems to be influenced by the field induced by the axial ligands. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Abstract types and distributions in independent private value auctions

In this note, in an independent private values auction framework, I discuss the relationship between the set of types and the distribution of types. I show that any set of types, finite dimensional or not, can be extended to a larger set of types preserving incentive compatibility constraints, expected revenue and bidder’s expected utilities. Thus for example we may convexify a set of types making our model amenable to the large body of theory in economics and mathematics that relies on convexity assumptions. An interesting application of this extension procedure is to show that although revenue equivalence is not valid in general if the set of types is not convex these mechanism have underlying distinct allocation mechanism in the extension. Thus we recover in these situations the revenue equivalence.

Changes in test scores distribution for students of the fourth grade in Brazil: a relative distribution analysis for the years 1997 to 2005

To assess the quality of school education, much of educational research is concerned with comparisons of test scores means or medians. In this paper, we shift this focus and explore test scores data by addressing some often neglected questions. In the case of Brazil, the mean of test scores in Math for students of the fourth grade has declined approximately 0,2 standard deviation in the late 1990s. But what about changes in the distribution of scores? It is unclear whether the decline was caused by deterioration in student performance in upper and/or lower tails of the distribution. To answer this question, we propose the use of the relative distribution method developed by Handcock and Morris (1999). The advantage of this methodology is that it compares two distributions of test scores data through a single distribution and synthesizes all the differences between them. Moreover, it is possible to decompose the total difference between two distributions in a level effect (changes in median) and shape effect (changes in shape of the distribution). We find that the decline of average-test scores is mainly caused by a worsening in the position of all students throughout the distribution of scores and is not only specific to any quantile of distribution.

Bank dividends and signaling to information-sensitive depositors

Esta tese investiga se a composição do endividamento dos bancos afeta sua política de dividendos. Identificou-se que investidores sensíveis a informações (investidores institucionais) são alvos de sinalização através de dividendos por parte dos bancos. Utilizando uma base de dados exclusiva de bancos brasileiros, foi possível identificar vários tipos de credores, especificamente, investidores institucionais, empresas não financeiras e pessoas físicas, que são alvos potenciais de sinalização por dividendos. Adicionalmente, a existência de vários bancos de capital fechado, controlados e geridos por um pequeno grupo de acionistas, em que a sinalização direcionada a acionistas é implausível, permite inferir que bancos que utilizam mais fundos de investidores sensíveis a informações (institucionais) pagam mais dividendos, controlando por diversas características. Durante a crise financeira, este comportamento foi ainda mais pronunciado. Esta relação reforça o papel dos dividendos como uma forma custosa e crível de comunicar sobre a qualidade dos ativos dos bancos. A hipótese de que os dividendos podem ser utilizados como uma forma de expropriação dos depositantes por parte dos acionistas é refutada, uma vez que, se fosse esse o caso, observar-se-ia esse maiores dividendos em bancos com depositantes menos sensíveis a informação. Além disso, foi verificada uma relação negativa entre o pagamento de dividendos e o custo de captação (juros pagos em certificados de depósito bancário) e uma relação positiva de dividendos com o tamanho e com os lucros passados, e que os bancos de capital fechado pagam mais dividendos do que os de capital aberto, uma descoberta que também se alinha com a ideia de que os depositantes seriam os alvos da sinalização por dividendos. Finalmente, encontrou-se também uma relação negativa entre dividendos e adequação de capital do bancos, o que indica que pressões regulatórias podem induzir os bancos a pagar menos dividendos e que o pagamento de dividendos é negativamente relacionado com o crescimento da carteira de crédito, o que é consistente com a ideia de que os bancos com maiores oportunidades de investimento retêm seus lucros para aumentar seu patrimônio líquido e sua capacidade de conceder crédito.

Exploratory study of corporate social responsibility: blogs as a communication tool to enhance company-stakeholders relationships

O conceito de responsabilidade social corporativa (RSE) evoluiu gradualmente do objetivo de satisfazer as expectativas dos acionistas para o cumprimento das expectativas das partes interessadas. Tornou-se um conceito amplamente aceitado e promovido como as empresas enfrentam maiores pressões de atores internos e externos para cumprir objetivos sociais maiores. Assim, elas cada vez mais comunicam sobre os esforços de responsabilidade social delas, a fim de fomentar a confiança e o envolvimento dos stakeholders. Mas o aumento da cidadania global e as novas tecnologias de informação e de comunicação – como as mídias sociaias – está criando uma paisagem desafiador para a comunicação RSE, se traduzindo em escrutínio e ceticismo do público. No entanto, também está criando novas oportunidades para as empresas compartilhar e interagir com as partes interessadas. O estudo analisa especificamente como os blogs corporativos dedicados à comunicação RSE conseguem melhorar as relações entre as empresas e as partes interessadas. Esta pesquisa exploratória da estrutura e das mensagens de 9 blogs corporativos, é baseada em um quadro de análise sobre comunicação RSE em plataformas de mídias sociais desenvolvido por Gomez e Chalmeta (2013). O quadro está melhorado e adaptado para blogs graças à literatura sobre comunicação RSE, mídias sociais e blogs corporativos. Os resultados demonstram que o uso de características de blogs como apresentação, conteúdo e interatividade, é diversificado e reflete estratégias diferentes de comunicação RSE. Blogs permitem às empresas aumentar a visibilidade da comunicação RSE, melhorar a credibilidade e a legitimidade dos esforços de responsabilidade social, e também trazer discussões com os stakeholders. No entanto, demonstramos que as características e recursos dos blogs raramente são totalmente desenvolvidos, sugerindo avenidas para a melhoria no campo da comunicação nas mídias sociais. Especificamente, o uso da interatividade para criar relações baseadas em diálogo entre empresas e stakeholders está até atrasado em relação à extensão das oportunidades oferecidas pelos blogs. Além disso, o grau de utilização das ferramentas de blogs determina a eficácia da comunicação de RSE 2.0 das empresas na criação de relações empresa-stakeholder.

Why merger talks collapse: an exploratory study about contributing factors to ‘wedding cold feet' and deal making failure in mergers and acquisitions from the perspective of active deal making professionals in Brazil

Why merger talks collapse: an exploratory study about contributing factors behind ‘wedding cold feet' and deal making failure in Mergers and Acquisitions from the perspective of active deal making professionals in Brazil. One basic question encouraged this study: after all the effort, expectations and money usually invested in dealmaking, why are so many transactions simply abandoned, even when the benefits are clear for the business, shareholders, customers and employees?

Undersampled Critical Branching Processes on Small-World and Random Networks Fail to Reproduce the Statistics of Spike Avalanches

The power-law size distributions obtained experimentally for neuronal avalanches are an important evidence of criticality in the brain. This evidence is supported by the fact that a critical branching process exhibits the same exponent t~3=2. Models at criticality have been employed to mimic avalanche propagation and explain the statistics observed experimentally. However, a crucial aspect of neuronal recordings has been almost completely neglected in the models: undersampling. While in a typical multielectrode array hundreds of neurons are recorded, in the same area of neuronal tissue tens of thousands of neurons can be found. Here we investigate the consequences of undersampling in models with three different topologies (two-dimensional, small-world and random network) and three different dynamical regimes (subcritical, critical and supercritical). We found that undersampling modifies avalanche size distributions, extinguishing the power laws observed in critical systems. Distributions from subcritical systems are also modified, but the shape of the undersampled distributions is more similar to that of a fully sampled system. Undersampled supercritical systems can recover the general characteristics of the fully sampled version, provided that enough neurons are measured. Undersampling in two-dimensional and small-world networks leads to similar effects, while the random network is insensitive to sampling density due to the lack of a well-defined neighborhood. We conjecture that neuronal avalanches recorded from local field potentials avoid undersampling effects due to the nature of this signal, but the same does not hold for spike avalanches. We conclude that undersampled branching-process-like models in these topologies fail to reproduce the statistics of spike avalanches.

Spontaneous Interblink Time Distributions in Patients with Graves' Orbitopathy and Normal Subjects

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Spatial variations at different observational scales and the seasonal distributions of stream macroalgae in a Brazilian subtropical region

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Levenberg-Marquardt application to two-phase nonlinear parameter estimation for finned-tube coil evaporators

A procedure for calculation of refrigerant mass flow rate is implemented in the distributed numerical model to simulate the flow in finned-tube coil dry-expansion evaporators, usually found in refrigeration and air-conditioning systems. Two-phase refrigerant flow inside the tubes is assumed to be one-dimensional, unsteady, and homogeneous. In themodel the effects of refrigerant pressure drop and the moisture condensation from the air flowing over the external surface of the tubes are considered. The results obtained are the distributions of refrigerant velocity, temperature and void fraction, tube-wall temperature, air temperature, and absolute humidity. The finite volume method is used to discretize the governing equations. Additionally, given the operation conditions and the geometric parameters, the model allows the calculation of the refrigerant mass flow rate. The value of mass flow rate is computed using the process of parameter estimation with the minimization method of Levenberg-Marquardt minimization. In order to validate the developed model, the obtained results using HFC-134a as a refrigerant are compared with available data from the literature.

Parturition intervals and distributions of parturitions by months of buffalo in Southern and South-eastern Brazil

Reproductive rate is an important component of economic success in livestock production. Parturition interval (IEP) is a direct measure of the productivity of the animal. Long IEP reduce the number of calves produced per year. The objective this study was to determine the distribution of parturitions across month and to evaluate factors affecting IEP. The data included 7,588 parturitions of Murrah, Mediterranean and Carabobo buffalo from 10 herds in Southern and South-eastern Brazil. The analysis of distribution of parturitions evaluated the effects of month, year and their interaction on birth date of calves by using a Chi-Square test in SAS PROC FREQ (SAS Institute, Cary, NC, USA). Parturition intervals (n = 2,630) were evaluated using analysis of variance in SAS PROC GLM. The model for IEP included the fixed effects of season (December to May = 1, June to November = 2), year, season x year, sex of the preceding parturition, age of weaning of the previous calf, and herd. All sources of variation were significant (P<0.0001) except sex of the preceding parturition (P <0.85). The mean IEP was 446.7 +/- 10.4 days, for seasons 1 and 2 IEP were 419.8 +/- 11.3 and 473.6 +/- 40.7 days, respectively, a difference of 54 days. As weaning age increased there was a lengthening of IEP. Buffalo in Brazil showed seasonal parturition with calving concentrated from January to April, although the frequency by month differed across years (P<0.0001). These months also had the lowest calving interval.

Association of haplotypes in the IL8 gene with susceptibility to chronic periodontitis in a Brazilian population

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)