Use of hydroclimatic forecasts for improved water management in central Texas

Accurate seasonal to interannual streamflow forecasts based on climate information are critical for optimal management and operation of water resources systems. Considering most water supply systems are multipurpose, operating these systems to meet increasing demand under the growing stresses of climate variability and climate change, population and economic growth, and environmental concerns could be very challenging. This study was to investigate improvement in water resources systems management through the use of seasonal climate forecasts. Hydrological persistence (streamflow and precipitation) and large-scale recurrent oceanic-atmospheric patterns such as the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the Pacific North American (PNA), and customized sea surface temperature (SST) indices were investigated for their potential to improve streamflow forecast accuracy and increase forecast lead-time in a river basin in central Texas. First, an ordinal polytomous logistic regression approach is proposed as a means of incorporating multiple predictor variables into a probabilistic forecast model. Forecast performance is assessed through a cross-validation procedure, using distributions-oriented metrics, and implications for decision making are discussed. Results indicate that, of the predictors evaluated, only hydrologic persistence and Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature patterns associated with ENSO and PDO provide forecasts which are statistically better than climatology. Secondly, a class of data mining techniques, known as tree-structured models, is investigated to address the nonlinear dynamics of climate teleconnections and screen promising probabilistic streamflow forecast models for river-reservoir systems. Results show that the tree-structured models can effectively capture the nonlinear features hidden in the data. Skill scores of probabilistic forecasts generated by both classification trees and logistic regression trees indicate that seasonal inflows throughout the system can be predicted with sufficient accuracy to improve water management, especially in the winter and spring seasons in central Texas. Lastly, a simplified two-stage stochastic economic-optimization model was proposed to investigate improvement in water use efficiency and the potential value of using seasonal forecasts, under the assumption of optimal decision making under uncertainty. Model results demonstrate that incorporating the probabilistic inflow forecasts into the optimization model can provide a significant improvement in seasonal water contract benefits over climatology, with lower average deficits (increased reliability) for a given average contract amount, or improved mean contract benefits for a given level of reliability compared to climatology. The results also illustrate the trade-off between the expected contract amount and reliability, i.e., larger contracts can be signed at greater risk.

Comparison between two caller groups of a medical call centre in Switzerland

OBJECTIVES: The incidence distribution of triage advice in the medical call centre Medi24 and the pattern of service utilisation were analysed with respect to two groups of callers with different insurance schemes. Individuals having contracted insurance of the Medi24 model could use the telephone consultation service of the medical call centre Medi24 (mainly part of the mandatory basic health insurance) voluntarily and free of charge whereas individuals holding an insurance policy of the Telmed model (special contract within the mandatory basic health insurance with a premium discount ranging from 8% to 12%) were obliged to have a telephone consultation before arranging an appointment with a medical doctor. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was carried out in the medical call centre Medi24 based on all triage datasets of the Medi24 and Telmed groups collected during the one year period from July 1st 2005 to June 30th 2006. The distribution of the six different urgency levels within the two groups and their respective pattern of service utilisation was determined. In a multivariable logistic regression model the Odds Ratio for every enquiry originating from the Telmed group versus those originating from the Medi24 group was calculated. RESULTS: During a one-year period 48 388 triage requests reached the medical call centre Medi24, 56% derived from the Telmed group and 44% from the Medi24 group. Within the Medi24 group more than 25% of the individuals received self-care advice, within the Telmed group, on the other hand, only about 18% received such advice. In contrast, 27% of the Telmed triage requests but only 18% of the Medi24 triage requests resulted in the advice to make a routine appointment with a medical doctor. The probability that an individual of the Telmed group obtained the advice to go to the accident and emergency department was lower than for an individual of the Medi24 group (OR 0.77, 95% CI 0.60-0.99). Likewise, the probability of self-care advice was decreased in regard to the Medi24 group (OR 0.80, 95% CI 0.75-0.85). However, regarding the advice to make a routine appointment with a medical doctor, the Telmed group was represented more frequently than the Medi24 group (OR 1.36, 95% CI 1.28-1.44). CONCLUSION: In respect of the triage advice, the Telmed group differed significantly from the Medi24 group within all urgency levels. The differences between the two groups in respect of the advice given were still less pronounced than expected against the background of their different contract conditions and the disparate temporal pattern of utilisation. We interprete this finding with the fact that appraising the urgency of health problems appropriately seems to be very difficult for the majority of people seeking advice.

Systemic prokinetic pharmacologic treatment for postoperative adynamic ileus following abdominal surgery in adults

BACKGROUND: Postoperative adynamic bowel atony interferes with recovery following abdominal surgery. Prokinetic pharmacologic drugs are widely used to accelerate postoperative recovery. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the benefits and harms of systemic acting prokinetic drugs to treat postoperative adynamic ileus in patients undergoing abdominal surgery. SEARCH STRATEGY: Trials were identified by computerised searches of the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, MEDLINE, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Colorectal Cancer Group specialised register. The reference lists of included trials and review articles were tracked and authors contacted. SELECTION CRITERIA: Randomised controlled parallel-group trials (RCT) comparing the effect of systemically acting prokinetic drugs against placebo or no intervention. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Four reviewers independently extracted the data and assessed trial quality. Trial authors were contacted for additional information if needed. MAIN RESULTS: Thirty-nine RCTs met the inclusion criteria contributing a total of 4615 participants. Most trials enrolled a small number of patients and showed moderate to poor (reporting of) methodological quality, in particular regarding allocation concealment and intention-to-treat analysis. Fifteen systemic acting prokinetic drugs were investigated and ten comparisons could be summarized. Six RCTs support the effect of Alvimopan, a novel peripheral mu receptor antagonist. However, the trials do not meet reporting guidelines and the drug is still in an investigational stage. Erythromycin showed homogenous and consistent absence of effect across all included trials and outcomes. The evidence is insufficient to recommend the use of cholecystokinin-like drugs, cisapride, dopamine-antagonists, propranolol or vasopressin. Effects are either inconsistent across outcomes, or trials are too small and often of poor methodological quality. Cisapride has been withdrawn from the market due to adverse cardiac events in many countries. Intravenous lidocaine and neostigmine might show a potential effect, but more evidence on clinically relevant outcomes is needed. Heterogeneity among included trials was seen in 10 comparisons. No major adverse drug effects were evident. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Alvimopan may prove to be beneficial but proper judgement needs adherence to reporting standards. Further trials are needed on intravenous lidocaine and neostigmine. The remaining drugs can not be recommended due to lack of evidence or absence of effect.

Governor Forrest Anderson’s Leadership & Political Acumen -- Alec Hansen “In the Crucible of Change”

Montana Governor Forrest Anderson was perhaps the most experienced and qualified person ever to be elected as Governor of Montana. Having previously served as a county attorney, a member of the legislature, a Supreme Court Justice, and twelve years as Attorney General, Anderson roared to a large victory in 1968 over the Incumbent GOP Governor Tim Babcock. Though the progressive change period in Montana began a few years earlier, Anderson’s 1968 win catapulted progressive policy-making into the mainstream of Montana political and governmental affairs. He used his unique skills and leadership to craftily architect the reorganization of the executive branch which had been kept weak since statehood so that the peoples’ government would not be able to challenge corporations who so dominated Montana. Anderson, whose “Pay More, What For?” campaign slogan strongly separated him from Tim Babcock and the GOP on the sales tax issue, not only beat back the regressive sales tax in the 1968 election, but oversaw its demise at the polls in 1971, shaping politics in Montana for decades to come. Anderson also was a strong proponent of the concept of a new Montana Constitution and contributed strategically to its calling and passage. Anderson served only one term as Governor for health reasons, but made those four years a launch pad for progressive politics and government in Montana. In this film, Alec Hansen, Special Assistant to Governor Anderson, provides an insider’s perspective as he reflects on the unique way in which Governor Anderson got things done at this critical period “In the Crucible of Change.” Alec Hansen is best known in Montana political and governmental circles as the long-time chief of the Montana League of Cities and Towns, but he cut his teeth in public service with Governor Forrest Anderson. Alec was born in Butte in 1941, attended local schools graduating from Butte High in 1959. After several years working as a miner and warehouseman for the Anaconda Company in Butte, he attended UM and graduated in History and Political Science in 1966. He joined the U.S. Navy and served with amphibious forces in Vietnam. After discharge from the Navy in 1968, he worked as a news and sports reporter for The Montana Standard in Butte until in September of 1969 he joined Governor Anderson as a Special Assistant focused on press, communications and speech-writing. Alec has noted that drafts were turned into pure Forrest Anderson remarks by the man himself. He learned at the knee of “The Fox” for the rest of Anderson’s term and continued with Governor Tom Judge for two years before returning to Butte to work for the Anaconda Company as the Director of Communications for Montana operations. In 1978, after Anaconda was acquired by the Atlantic Richfield Company, Alec went to work in February for U.S. Senator Paul Hatfield in Washington D.C., leaving after Hatfield’s primary election loss in June 1978. He went back to work for Gov. Judge, remaining until the end of 1980. In 1981 Alec worked as a contract lobbyist and news and sports reporter for the Associated Press in Helena. In 1982, the Montana League of Cities and Towns hired him as Executive Director, a position he held until retirement in 2014. Alec and his wife Colleen, are the parents of two grown children, with one grandson.

3D Ultrasound imaging--a useful non-invasive tool to detect AV fistulas in transplanted kidneys

BACKGROUND: A precise, non-invasive, non-toxic, repeatable, convenient and inexpensive follow-up of renal transplants, especially following biopsies, is in the interest of nephrologists. Formerly, the rate of biopsies leading to AV fistulas had been underestimated. Imaging procedures suited to a detailed judgement of these vascular malformations are to be assessed. METHODS: Three-dimensional (3D) reconstruction techniques of ultrasound flow-directed and non-flow-directed energy mode pictures were compared with a standard procedure, gadolinium-enhanced nuclear magnetic resonance imaging angiography (MRA) using the phase contrast technique. RESULTS: Using B-mode and conventional duplex information, AV fistulas were localized in the upper pole of the kidney transplant of the index patient. The 3D reconstruction provided information about the exact localization and orientation of the fistula in relation to other vascular structures, and the flow along the fistula. The MRA provided localization and orientation information, but less functional information. Flow-directed and non-flow-directed energy mode pictures could be reconstructed to provide 3D information about vascular malformations in transplanted kidneys. CONCLUSION: In transplanted kidneys, 3D-ultrasound angiography may be equally as effective as MRA in localizing and identifying AV malformations. Advantages of the ultrasound method are that it is cheaper, non-toxic, non-invasive, more widely availability and that it even provides more functional information. Future prospective studies will be necessary to evaluate the two techniques further.

Stud.IP and ILIAS in an EU-Funded Project for the Middle East

In autumn 2005 InWEnt (Internationale Weiterbildung und Entwicklung/Capacity Building International gGmbH) on behalf of the EU invited to tender for three web based trainings (WBT). The precondition: either the open-source-platform Stud.IP or ILIAS should be used. The company data-quest decided not to offer the use of either Stud.IP or ILIAS, but both in combination - and won the contract. Several month later, the new learning environment with the combined powers of Stud.IP and ILIAS was ready to serve WBT-participants from all over the world. The following text describes the EU-Project "Efficient Management of Wastewater, its Treatment and Reuse in the Mediterranean Countries" (EMWater), the WBT concept and the experiences with the new Stud.IP-ILIAS-interface.

The Role of a Non-Governmental Organization in the Improvement of Employment in Finland: A Case Study

This study discusses one Non-Governmental Organization (NGO) as an alternative institution for the improvement of employment in a Finnish city. Empirical data was collected from 16 employees and from an official of the organization using questionnaires, interviews and participant observation. The data was analyzed qualitatively and the findings revealed that, the organization plays complementary role in cooperating with the government to provide social services to underprivileged groups of people, through which the organization is able to create jobs for long-term unemployed people in the city of Jyväskylä. However, the skill development training of the organization was found to be inadequate for boosting the employability of their employees in the open labour market, once the latter’s 1-2 year contract ended. The study concluded that for the organization to become a viable alternative institution for the improvement of employment in the city of Jyväskylä, it must improve the skill development training of their employees, as well as increase collaboration with other actors that are working towards the same goals.

The Role of a Non-Governmental Organization in the Improvement of Employment in Finland: A Case Study

This study discusses one Non-Governmental Organization (NGO) as an alternative institution for the improvement of employment in a Finnish city. Empirical data was collected from 16 employees and from an official of the organization using questionnaires, interviews and participant observation. The data was analyzed qualitatively and the findings revealed that, the organization plays complementary role in cooperating with the government to provide social services to underprivileged groups of people, through which the organization is able to create jobs for long-term unemployed people in the City of Jyväskylä. However, the skill development training of the organization was found to be inadequate for boosting the employability of their employees in the open labour market, once their 1-2 year contract ended. The study concluded that for the organization to become a viable alternative institution for the improvement of employment in the City of Jyväskylä, it must improve the skill development training of their employees, as well as increase collaboration with other actors that are working towards the same goals.

The Digital Economy Act in the dock: a proportionate ruling

The UK’s Digital Economy Act 2010 contains measures to enforce copyright on the Internet, specifically a two-tiered form of a graduated response.The Act was challenged in the High Court by two of the UK’s biggest Internet Service Providers (ISP), who obtained a Judicial Review of the copyright enforce- ment provisions. This paper is an overview of the case, based on the hearing of March 2011 and the ensuing judgement. It focuses on the two most hotly contested grounds for the challenge, namely an al- leged failure to notify the European Commission under the Technical Standards Directive, and the pro- portionality or otherwise of the contested provisions. It observes how the judgement accepted the defence argumentation of the government and the copyright owners as interested parties, and how the ISPs appeared to be put on the back foot.

Results of herd health management in veal calf production

The aim of this study was to document experience gained with herd health management in veal calf production and to describe the calves' most frequent health problems. Fifteen farms with an 'all-in-all-out' animal flow system and 20 farms with a continuous animal flow system were investigated and data on animal movements, housing, feeding, medical treatments, and management were collected. Cadavers underwent pathological examination, and data were recorded from the carcasses of slaughtered calves. On the 15 'all-in-all-out'-farms, 2'747 calves were clinically examined by the contract-veterinarian upon arrival at the farm, and 71,1 % of the calves showed at least one sign of illness. The main causes of death were with 54,9 % digestive disorders (a perforating abomasal ulcer being the most frequent diagnosis), followed by respiratory diseases (29,6 %, mainly pneumonia). The meat color of 25 % of the carcasses was red. Calves from farms with the continuous animal flow system, which recruit mainly animals originating from the same farm, showed significantly better results regarding antibiotic use, performance and carcass quality than those calves from farms with the 'all-in-all-out'-system.

Predictors for hospitalization and outpatient visits in patients with inflammatory bowel disease: results from the Swiss Inflammatory Bowel Disease Cohort Study

OBJECTIVES Patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) have a high resource consumption, with considerable costs for the healthcare system. In a system with sparse resources, treatment is influenced not only by clinical judgement but also by resource consumption. We aimed to determine the resource consumption of IBD patients and to identify its significant predictors. MATERIALS AND METHODS Data from the prospective Swiss Inflammatory Bowel Disease Cohort Study were analysed for the resource consumption endpoints hospitalization and outpatient consultations at enrolment [1187 patients; 41.1% ulcerative colitis (UC), 58.9% Crohn's disease (CD)] and at 1-year follow-up (794 patients). Predictors of interest were chosen through an expert panel and a review of the relevant literature. Logistic regressions were used for binary endpoints, and negative binomial regressions and zero-inflated Poisson regressions were used for count data. RESULTS For CD, fistula, use of biologics and disease activity were significant predictors for hospitalization days (all P-values <0.001); age, sex, steroid therapy and biologics were significant predictors for the number of outpatient visits (P=0.0368, 0.023, 0.0002, 0.0003, respectively). For UC, biologics, C-reactive protein, smoke quitters, age and sex were significantly predictive for hospitalization days (P=0.0167, 0.0003, 0.0003, 0.0076 and 0.0175 respectively); disease activity and immunosuppressive therapy predicted the number of outpatient visits (P=0.0009 and 0.0017, respectively). The results of multivariate regressions are shown in detail. CONCLUSION Several highly significant clinical predictors for resource consumption in IBD were identified that might be considered in medical decision-making. In terms of resource consumption and its predictors, CD and UC show a different behaviour.

In What Sense Are Emotions Evaluations?

Abstract: In this chapter, we first introduce the idea that emotions are evaluations. Next, we explore two approaches attempting to account for this idea in terms of attitudes that are alleged to become emotional when taking evaluative contents. According to the first approach, emotions are evaluative judgments. According to the second, emotions are perceptual experiences of evaluative properties. We explain why this theory remains unsatisfactory insofar as it shares with the evaluative judgement theory the idea that emotions are evaluations in virtue of their contents. We then outline an alternative – the attitudinal theory of emotions. It parts with current theorizing about the emotions in elucidating the fact that emotions are evaluations not in terms of what they represent, but in terms of the attitude subjects take towards what they represent. We explore what sorts of attitudes emotions are and claim that they are felt bodily attitudes.

EMPLOYMENT AND EXPOSURES IN THE PETROLEUM REFINING AND PETROCHEMICAL INDUSTRIES AND THE RISK OF LUNG CANCER (EPIDEMIOLOGY, ASSESSMENT)

This dissertation addresses the risk of lung cancer associated with occupational exposures in the petroleum refining and petrochemical industries. Earlier epidemiologic studies of this association did not adjust for cigarette smoking or have specific exposure classifications. The Texas EXposure Assessment System (TEXAS) was developed with data from a population-based, case-comparison study conducted in five southeast Texas counties between 1976 and 1980. The Texas Exposure Assessment System uses job and process categories developed by the American Petroleum Institute, as well as time-oriented variables to identify high risk groups.^ An industry-wide, increased risk for lung cancer was associated with jobs having low-level hydrocarbon exposure that also include other occupational inhalation exposures (OR = 2.0--adjusted for smoking and latency effects). The prohibition of cigarette smoking for jobs with high-level hydrocarbon exposure might explain part of the increased risk for jobs with low-level hydrocarbon exposures. Asbestos exposure comprises a large part of the risk associated with jobs having other inhalation exposures besides hydrocarbons. Workers in petroleum refineries were not shown to have an increased, occupational risk for lung cancer. The increased risk for lung cancer among petrochemical workers (OR = 3.1--smoking and latency adjusted) is associated with all jobs that involve other inhalation exposure characteristics (not only low-level hydrocarbon exposures). Findings for contract workers and workers exposed to specific chemicals were inconclusive although some hypotheses for future research were identified.^ The study results demonstrate that the predominant risk for lung cancer is due to cigarette smoking (OR = 9.8). Cigarette smoking accounts for 86.5% of the incident lung cancer cases within the study area. Workers in the petroleum industry smoke significantly less than persons employed in other industries (p << 0.001). Only 2.2% of the incident lung cancer cases may be attributed to petroleum industry jobs; lifestyle factors (e.g., nutrition) may be associated with the balance of the cases. The results from this study also suggest possible high risk time periods (OR = 3.9--smoking and occupation adjusted). Artifacts in time-oriented findings may result because of the latency interval for lung cancer, secular peaks in age-, sex-specific incidence rates, or periods of hazardous exposures in the petroleum industry. ^

Does culture really matter in sports participation? The impact of socio-cultural factors on sports behaviour in Switzerland

The physical activity of the Swiss population differs considerably depending on the linguistic region. German speakers are more often physically active than people living in the French or Italian-speaking part of Switzerland (Stamm & Lamprecht, 2011). This study analyses how socio-cultural factors correlate with sports participation for adolescents and young adults. In order to analyse this research question, Bourdieu’s concept of habitus (1984) has been adapted and used as a theoretical background. This sport-related concept of habitus considers culturally determined values, the attribution of meaning and patterns of action such as the understanding of sports, the importance of sports, body, health or leisure. On this basis, the sport-related habitus and the practical relevance of sports participation has been empirically reconstructed for adolescents and young adults aged 15 to 25 through a qualitative study including guideline-based interviews with German (n=6) and French (n=4) speaking adolescents and young adults, as well as a quantitative survey in a German (n=106) and a French (n=99) speaking commune of Switzerland. Initial findings reveal that young German speakers associate sports with self-discipline (χ²(1, N=205)= 8.223, p<.005, V=.200) and fitness (χ²(1, N=205)= 21.989, p<.005, V=.328) whereas young French speakers are more likely to relate health (χ²(1, N=205)= 9.455, p<.005, V=.215), effort and perspiration (χ²(1, N=205)= 18.835, p<.005, V=.303) to sports. Similarly, the understanding of body and health as well as the attitude towards leisure differs between the German and French speaking parts of Switzerland. This study illustrates that the concept of sports habitus is culturally shaped and therefore may be fruitful in further analyses. Bourdieu, P. (1984). Distinction. A Social Critique of the Judgement of Taste. Cambridge: Harvard University Press. Stamm, H. & Lamprecht, M. (2008). Swiss sports participation in an international perspective. European Journal for Sport and Society, 8 (1+2), 15-29.