994 resultados para crop yield forecast
Resumo:
Maize is one of the most important crops in the world. The products generated from this crop are largely used in the starch industry, the animal and human nutrition sector, and biomass energy production and refineries. For these reasons, there is much interest in figuring the potential grain yield of maize genotypes in relation to the environment in which they will be grown, as the productivity directly affects agribusiness or farm profitability. Questions like these can be investigated with ecophysiological crop models, which can be organized according to different philosophies and structures. The main objective of this work is to conceptualize a stochastic model for predicting maize grain yield and productivity under different conditions of water supply while considering the uncertainties of daily climate data. Therefore, one focus is to explain the model construction in detail, and the other is to present some results in light of the philosophy adopted. A deterministic model was built as the basis for the stochastic model. The former performed well in terms of the curve shape of the above-ground dry matter over time as well as the grain yield under full and moderate water deficit conditions. Through the use of a triangular distribution for the harvest index and a bivariate normal distribution of the averaged daily solar radiation and air temperature, the stochastic model satisfactorily simulated grain productivity, i.e., it was found that 10,604 kg ha(-1) is the most likely grain productivity, very similar to the productivity simulated by the deterministic model and for the real conditions based on a field experiment.
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DISTRIBUTION OF NITROGEN AMMONIUM SULFATE (N-15) SOIL-PLANT SYSTEM IN A NO-TILLAGE CROP SUCCESSION The N use by maize (Zea mays, L.) is affected by N-fertilizer levels. This study was conducted using a sandy-clay texture soil (Hapludox) to evaluate the efficiency of N use by maize in a crop succession, based on N-15-labeled ammonium sulfate (5.5 atom %) at different rates, and to assess the residual fertilizer effect in two no-tillage succession crops (signalgrass and corn). Two maize crops were evaluated, the first in the growing season 2006, the second in 2007, and brachiaria in the second growing season. The treatments consisted of N rates of 60, 120 and 180 kg ha(-1) in the form of labeled N-15 ammonium sulfate. This fertilizer was applied in previously defined subplots, only to the first maize crop (growing season 2006). The variables total accumulated N; fertilizer-derived N in corn plants and pasture; fertilizer-derived N in the soil; and recovery of fertilizer-N by plants and soil were evaluated. The highest uptake of fertilizer N by corn was observed after application of 120 kg ha(-1) N and the residual effect of N fertilizer on subsequent corn and Brachiaria was highest after application of 180 kg ha(-1) N. After the crop succession, soil N recovery was 32, 23 and 27 % for the respective applications of 60, 120 and 180 kg ha(-1) N.
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Recently high spectral resolution sensors have been developed, which allow new and more advanced applications in agriculture. Motivated by the increasing importance of hyperspectral remote sensing data, the need for research is important to define optimal wavebands to estimate biophysical parameters of crop. The use of narrow band vegetation indices (VI) derived from hyperspectral measurements acquired by a field spectrometer was evaluated to estimate bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) grain yield, plant height and leaf area index (LAI). Field canopy reflectance measurements were acquired at six bean growth stages over 48 plots with four water levels (179.5; 256.5; 357.5 and 406.2 mm) and tree nitrogen rates (0; 80 and 160 kg ha-1) and four replicates. The following VI was analyzed: OSNBR (optimum simple narrow-band reflectivity); NB_NDVI (narrow-band normalized difference vegetation index) and NDVI (normalized difference index). The vegetation indices investigated (OSNBR, NB_NDVI and NDVI) were efficient to estimate LAI, plant height and grain yield. During all crop development, the best correlations between biophysical variables and spectral variables were observed on V4 (the third trifoliolate leaves were unfolded in 50 % of plants) and R6 (plants developed first flowers in 50 % of plants) stages, according to the variable analyzed.
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Studies addressing the estimation of genetic parameters in soybean have not emphasized the epistatic effects. The purpose of this study was to estimate the significance of these effects on soybean grain yield, based on the Modified Triple Test Cross design. Thirty-two inbred lines derived from a cross between two contrasting lines were used, which were crossed with two testers (L1 and L2). The experiments were carried out at two locations, in 10 x 10 triple lattice designs with 9 replications, containing 32 lines (Pi ), 64 crosses (32 Pi x L1 and 32 Pi x L2 ) and controls. The variation between ( ͞L1i + ͞L2i - ͞Pi ) revealed the presence of epistasis, as well as an interaction of epistasis x environment. Since the predominant component of epistasis in autogamous species is additive x additive (i type), we suggest postponing the selection for grain yield to later generations of inbreeding in order to exploit the beneficial effects of additive x additive epistasis.
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Fusarium Head Blight (FHB) is a worldwide cereal disease responsible of significant yield reduction, inferior grain quality, and mycotoxin accumulation. Fusarium graminearum and F. culmorum are the prevalent causal agents. FHB has been endemic in Italy since 1995, while there are no records about its presence in Syria. Forty-eight and forty-six wheat kernel samples were collected from different localities and analyzed for fungal presence and mycotoxin contamination. Fusarium strains were identified morphologically but the molecular confirmation was performed only for some species. Further differentiation of the chemotypes for trichothecene synthesis by F. graminearum and F. culmorum strains was conducted by PCR assays. Fusarium spp. were present in 62.5% of Syrian samples. 3Acetyl-Deoxynivalenol and nivalenol chemotypes were found in F. culmorum whilst all F. graminearum strains belonged to NIV chemotype. Italian samples were infected with Fusarium spp for 67.4%. 15Ac-DON was the prevalent chemotype in F. graminearum, while 3Ac-DON chemotype was detected in F. culmorum. The 60 Syrian Fusarium strains tested for mycotoxin production by HPLC-MS/MS have shown the prevalence of zearalenone while the emerging mycotoxins were almost absent. The analysis of the different Syrian and Italian samples of wheat kernels for their mycotoxin content showed that Syrian kernels were mainly contaminated with storage mycotoxins, aflatoxins and ochratoxin whilst Italian grains with mainly Fusarium mycotoxins. The aggressiveness of several Syrian F. culmorum isolates was estimated using three different assays: floret inoculation in growth chamber, ear inoculation in the field and a validated new Petri-dish test. The study of the behaviour of different Syrian wheat cultivars, grown under different conditions, has revealed that Jory is a FHB Syrian tolerant cultivar. This is the first study in Syria on Fusarium spp. associated to FHB, Fusarium mycotoxin producers and grain quality.
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Switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) is a perennial grass holding great promise as a biofuel resource. While Michigan’s Upper Peninsula has an appropriate land base and climatic conditions, there is little research exploring the possibilities of switchgrass production. The overall objectives of this research were to investigate switchgrass establishment in the northern edge of its distribution through: investigating the effects of competition on the germination and establishment of switchgrass through the developmental and competitive characteristics of Cave-in-Rock switchgrass and large crabgrass (Digitaria sanguinalis L.) in Michigan’s Upper Peninsula; and, determining the optimum planting depths and timing for switchgrass in Michigan’s Upper Peninsula. For the competition study, a randomized complete block design was installed June 2009 at two locations in Michigan’s Upper Peninsula. Four treatments (0, 1, 4, and 8 plants/m2) of crabgrass were planted with one switchgrass plant. There was a significant difference between switchgrass biomass produced in year one, as a function of crabgrass weed pressure. There was no significant difference between the switchgrass biomass produced in year two versus previous crabgrass weed pressure. There is a significant difference between switchgrass biomass produced in year one and two. For the depth and timing study, a completely randomized design was installed at two locations in Michigan’s Upper Peninsula on seven planting dates (three fall 2009, and four spring 2010); 25 seeds were planted 2 cm apart along 0.5 m rows at depths of: 0.6 cm, 1.3 cm, and 1.9 cm. Emergence and biomass yields were compared by planting date, and depths. A greenhouse seeding experiment was established using the same planting depths and parameters as the field study. The number of seedlings was tallied daily for 30 days. There was a significant difference in survivorship between the fall and spring planting dates, with the spring being more successful. Of the four spring planting dates, there was a significant difference between May and June in emergence and biomass yield. June planting dates had the most percent emergence and total survivorship. There is no significant difference between planting switchgrass at depths of 0.6 cm, 1.3 cm, and 1.9 cm. In conclusion, switchgrass showed no signs of a legacy effect of competition from year one, on biomass production. Overall, an antagonistic effect on switchgrass biomass yield during the establishment period has been observed as a result of increasing competing weed pressure. When planting switchgrass in Michigan’s Upper Peninsula, it should be done in the spring, within the first two weeks of June, at any depth ranging from 0.6 cm to 1.9 cm.
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Orphan- or understudied-crops are mostly staple food crops in developing world. They are broadly classified under cereals, legumes, root crops, fruits and vegetables. These under-researched crops contribute to the diet of a large portion of resource-poor consumers and at the same time generate income for small-holder farmers in developing countries, particularly in Africa. In addition, they perform better than major crops of the world under extreme soil and climatic conditions. However, orphan crops are not without problems. Due to lack of scientific investigation, most of them produce low yields while others have a variety of toxins that affect the health of consumers. Here, we present some highlights on the status and future perspectives of the Tef Biotechnology Project that employs modern improvement technique in order to genetically improve tef (Eragrostis tef), one of the most important orphan crop in Africa. A reverse genetics approach known as TILLING (Targeting Induced Local Lesions IN Genome) is implemented in order to tackle lodging, the major yield limiting factor in tef.Key words: Orphan crops, underresearched crops, Eragrostis tef, TILLING, semi-dwarf.
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Organic management is one of the most popular strategies to reduce negative environmental impacts of intensive agriculture. However, little is known about benefits for biodiversity and potential worsening of yield under organic grasslands management across different grassland types, i.e. meadow, pasture and mown pasture. Therefore, we studied the diversity of vascular plants and foliage-living arthropods (Coleoptera, Araneae, Heteroptera, Auchenorrhyncha), yield, fodder quality, soil phosphorus concentrations and land-use intensity of organic and conventional grasslands across three study regions in Germany. Furthermore, all variables were related to the time since conversion to organic management in order to assess temporal developments reaching up to 18 years. Arthropod diversity was significantly higher under organic than conventional management, although this was not the case for Araneae, Heteroptera and Auchenorrhyncha when analyzed separately. On the contrary, arthropod abundance, vascular plant diversity and also yield and fodder quality did not considerably differ between organic and conventional grasslands. Analyses did not reveal differences in the effect of organic management among grassland types. None of the recorded abiotic and biotic parameters showed a significant trend with time since transition to organic management, except soil organic phosphorus concentrations which decreased with time. This implies that permanent grasslands respond slower and probably weaker to organic management than crop fields do. However, as land-use intensity and inorganic soil phosphorus concentrations were significantly lower in organic grasslands, overcoming seed and dispersal limitation by re-introducing plant species might be needed to exploit the full ecological potential of organic grassland management. We conclude that although organic management did not automatically increase the diversity of all studied taxa, it is a reasonable and useful way to support agro-biodiversity.
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Economic comparisons of income on highly erodible land (HEL) in Adams County were made utilizing five years of grazing data collected from a 13- paddock intensive-rotational grazing system and a four-paddock rotational-grazing system and four years of data collected from an 18-paddock intensive-rotational grazing system, all at the Adams County CRP Research and Demonstration Farm near Corning. Net income from the average grazing weight-gain of Angus-sired calves nursing crossbred cows was compared to the net income from grazing yearling steers, to the net income of eight NRCS-recommended crop rotations, and to the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) option. Results of these comparisons show the 13-paddock intensive rotational grazing system with cow-calf pairs to be the most profitable alternative, with a net return of $19.86 per acre per year. The second most profitable alternative is the CRP option, with a net return of $13.09 per acre, and the third most profitable option is the fourpaddock rotation with cows and calves with a net return of $12.53 per acre. An 18-paddock system returned a net income of $2.47 per acre per year with cows and calves in 1993, but lost an average of $107.69 per acre each year in 1994 and 1995 with yearling steers. Each year, the steers were purchased high and sold low, contributing to the large loss per acre. The following recommended crop rotations all show net losses on these 9-14 % slope, Adair-Shelby Complex soils (ApD3): continuous corn; corn-soybean rotation; corn-soybean rotation with a farm program deficiency payment; corn-corn-corn-oats-meadow-meadow rotation with grass headlands; continuous corn to “T” with grass headlands and buffer strips; continuous corn to “T” with grass headlands, buffer strips, and a deficiency payment; corn-corn-oats-meadow rotation to “T”; and corn-soybeans-oats-meadow-meadow-meadow-meadow rotation to “T”. Per-acre yield assumptions of 90 bushels for corn, 30 bushels for soybeans, 45 bushels for oats, and four tons for alfalfa were used, with per-bushel prices of $2.40 on corn, $5.50 on soybeans, and $1.50 on oats. Alfalfa hay was priced at $40.00 per ton and grass hay at $33.33 per ton. The calf weight-gain in the cow/ calf systems was valued at $.90 per pound. All crop expenses except land costs were calculated from ISU publication Fm 1712, “Estimated Costs of Crop Production in Iowa - 1995.” Land costs were determined by using an opportunity cost and actual property tax figures for the land at the grazing site. In preparation for the end of the CRP beginning in 1996, further economic comparisons will be made after additional grazing seasons and data collection. This project is an interagency cooperative effort sponsored by the Southern Iowa Forage and Livestock Committee which has special permission from the USDA Farm Service Agency (FSA) to use CRP land for research and demonstration.
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One non bt-corn hybrid (Pioneer 3489) and three btcorn hyrids (Pioneer 34RO7, Novartis NX6236, and Novartis N64-Z4) were planted in replicated 7.1-acre fields. After grain harvest, fields were stocked with 3 mature cows in midgestation to be strip-grazed as four paddocks over 126 days. Six similar cows were allotted to replicated drylots. All cows were fed hay as necessary to maintain a condition score of 5 on a 9-point scale. Cows were condition-scored biweekly and weighed monthly. Forage yield and weathering losses were determined by sampling one 4-m2 location per grazed or ungrazed paddock in each field with a minimum total of 2 locations of grazed or ungrazed forage per field. To measure forage selection during grazing, samples of grazed forage were collected from the rumen of one fistulated steer that grazed for 2 hours after ruminal evacuation. Non-bt-corn hybrids had greater (P<.05) infestation of corn borers in the upper stalk, lower stalk and ear shank than bt-corn hybrids. However, there were no differences in grain yields or dropped grain between hybrids. Crop residue dry matter, organic matter and in vitro digestible dry matter yields at the initiation of grazing did not differ between corn hybrids. Dry matter, organic matter and in vitro digestible dry matter losses tended (P<.10) to be greater from the NX6236 and N64-Z4 hybrids than from the 3489 and 34RO7 hybrids and were greater (P<.05) from grazed than non-grazed areas of the fields. At the initiation of grazing, dry matter concentrations of the crop residues from the NX6236 and N64-Z4 hybrids tended to be lower than those from the 3489 and 34RO7 hybrids. Crop residues from the NX6236 and N64-74 hybrids had lower concentrations of acid detergent fiber (P<.05) and acid detergent lignin (P=.07) and higher concentrations of in vitro digestible organic matter than the 3489 and 34RO7 hybrids. Over the grazing season, corn hybrid did not affect mean rates of change in forage composition. The concentration of in vitro digestible organic matter in forage selected by steers after two weeks of grazing did not differ. However, steers grazing corn crop residues consumed forage with higher (P<.05) concentrations of neutral detergent fiber, acid detergent fiber, and acid detergent insoluble nitrogen than steers fed hay. The acid detergent fiber concentration of forage selected by steers grazing the 3489 and N64-Z4 hybrids was lower (P < .05) than concentrations from the 34RO7 and NX6236 hybrids. In order to maintain similar body condition score changes, cows grazing crop residues from the 3489, 34RO7, NX6236, and N64-Z4 hybrids required 650, 628, 625, and 541 kg hay DM/cow compared with a hay requirement of 1447 kg hay DM/cow for cows maintained in a drylot.
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In the fall of 1994, mature Charolais cross cows in midgestation were allotted to duplicate 15 acre fields containing corn crop residues or a 2-to-1 mixture of corn crop residues and berseem clover planted in 3 strips at an allowance of 2.5 acres/cow for a 140 day wintering season. Similar cows were allotted duplicate drylots. All cows were fed hay as necessary to maintain a body condition score of 5. Cows grazing corn crop residues with or without berseem clover required 2596 pounds less hay per cow than cows maintained in a drylot. There was no difference in the amounts of hay required by cows grazing corn crop residues alone or with berseem clover. Initial organic matter yield of berseem clover was nearly that of corn crop residues and did not decrease as rapidly as corn crop residues. Berseem clover had a higher organic matter digestibility than corn crop residues at the initiation of grazing. Organic matter digestibility of berseem clover, however, decreased more rapidly than corn crop residues because of weathering during the winter.
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Conventional risk assessments for crop protection chemicals compare the potential for causing toxicity (hazard identification) to anticipated exposure. New regulatory approaches have been proposed that would exclude exposure assessment and just focus on hazard identification based on endocrine disruption. This review comprises a critical analysis of hazard, focusing on the relative sensitivity of endocrine and non-endocrine endpoints, using a class of crop protection chemicals, the azole fungicides. These were selected because they are widely used on important crops (e.g. grains) and thereby can contact target and non-target plants and enter the food chain of humans and wildlife. Inhibition of lanosterol 14α-demethylase (CYP51) mediates the antifungal effect. Inhibition of other CYPs, such as aromatase (CYP19), can lead to numerous toxicological effects, which are also evident from high dose human exposures to therapeutic azoles. Because of its widespread use and substantial database, epoxiconazole was selected as a representative azole fungicide. Our critical analysis concluded that anticipated human exposure to epoxiconazole would yield a margin of safety of at least three orders of magnitude for reproductive effects observed in laboratory rodent studies that are postulated to be endocrine-driven (i.e. fetal resorptions). The most sensitive ecological species is the aquatic plant Lemna (duckweed), for which the margin of safety is less protective than for human health. For humans and wildlife, endocrine disruption is not the most sensitive endpoint. It is concluded that conventional risk assessment, considering anticipated exposure levels, will be protective of both human and ecological health. Although the toxic mechanisms of other azole compounds may be similar, large differences in potency will require a case-by-case risk assessment.
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Food security is the main concern in Africa as the production and productivity of crops are under continuous threat. Indigenous crops also known as orphan- or as underutilized- crops provide key contributions to food security under the present scenario of increasing world population and changing climate. Hence, these crops which belong to the major categories of cereals, legumes, fruits and root crops play a key role in the livelihood of the resource-poor farmers and consumers since they perform better than the major world crops under extreme soil and climate conditions prevalent in the continent. These indigenous crops have the major advantage that they fit well into the general socio-economic and ecological context of the region. However, despite their huge importance, African crops have generally received little attention by the global scientific community. With the current production systems, only a fraction of yield potential was achieved for most of these crops. In order to devise strategies towards boosting crop productivity in Africa, the current production constraints should be investigated and properly addressed. Key traits known to increase productivity and/or improve nutrition and diverse conventional and modern crop improvement techniques need to be implemented. Commitments in the value-chain from the research, production, marketing to distribution of improved seeds are required by relevant national and international institutions as well as African governments to promote food security in a sustainable manner. The review also presents major achievements and suggestions for stakeholders interested in African agriculture.
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Background Tef [Eragrostis tef (Zucc.) Trotter] is the major cereal crop of Ethiopia where it is annually cultivated on more than three million hectares of land by over six million small-scale farmers. It is broadly grouped into white and brown-seeded type depending on grain color, although some intermediate color grains also exist. Earlier breeding experiments focused on white-seeded tef, and a number of improved varieties were released to the farming community. Thirty-six brown-seeded tef genotypes were evaluated using a 6 × 6 simple lattice design at three locations in the central highlands of Ethiopia to assess the productivity, heritability, and association among major pheno-morphic traits. Results The mean square due to genotypes, locations, and genotype by locations were significant (P < 0.01) for all traits studied. Genotypic and phenotypic coefficients of variations ranged from 2.5 to 20.3 % and from 4.3 to 21.7 %, respectively. Grain yield showed significant (P < 0.01) genotypic correlation with shoot biomass and harvest index, while it had highly significant (P < 0.01) phenotypic correlation with all the traits evaluated. Besides, association of lodging index with biomass and grain yield was negative and significant at phenotypic level while it was not significant at genotypic level. Cluster analysis grouped the 36 test genotypes into seven distinct classes. Furthermore, the first three principal components with eigenvalues greater than unity extracted 78.3 % of the total variation. Conclusion The current study, generally, revealed the identification of genotypes with superior grain yield and other desirable traits for further evaluation and eventual release to the farming community.
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Six years ago the Northwest Iowa On-Farm Research Project was started to cooperate with local farmers to compare crop production methods on a field scale size. Through this project, over 300 replicated comparisons have been done. Beginning in 2012, the Northwest Iowa On-Farm Research project will be recognized as a part of Iowa State University Farmer Assisted Research and Management (FARM) program. This program will also expand to southwest Iowa, north central Iowa, and central Iowa.