Volt-e likviditási válság? Volatilitás és likviditás kapcsolatának vizsgálata (Was there a liquidity crisis? Analysis the relationship between volatility and liquidity)

Széleskörűen alátámasztott, empirikus tény, hogy önmagában a nagyobb volatilitás csökkenti a piac likviditását, vagyis változékonyabb piacokon várhatóan nagyobb lesz egy-egy tranzakció áreltérítő hatása. Kutatásomban azt a kérdést vizsgáltam, hogy a Budapesti Értéktőzsdén az OTP-részvény piacán a 2007/2008-as válságban tapasztalható, átmeneti likviditáscsökkenés betudható volt-e egyszerűen a megnövekedett volatilitásnak, vagy ezen túl abban más tényezők (pl. a szereplők körének és viselkedésének drasztikus megváltozása, általános forráscsökkenés stb.) is szerepet játszhattak-e. A volatilitást a loghozamok szórásával, illetve a tényleges ársávval, míg az illikviditást a Budapesti Likviditási Mértékkel (BLM) reprezentáltam. Egyrészt azt állapítottam meg, hogy az OTP esetében a tényleges ársáv szorosabban korrelál a BLM-mel, mint a szórás. Másrészt az is egyértelmű, hogy a válság előtti kapcsolat a volatilitás és a likviditás között a válságban és azután már jelentősen megváltozott. Válságban az illikviditás jóval nagyobb volt, mint amit a volatilitás növekedése alapján vártunk, a válság lecsengése után azonban megfordult ez a reláció. _________ It is a widely supported empirical fact, that the greater volatility in itself decreases the liquidity of the market, namely more volatile a market is, the higher a transaction’s price impact will be. I have examined in my paper the question, whether the decrease of liquidity during the crisis of 2007/2008 in case of the OTP stock – traded on the Budapest Stock Exchange – was the consequence of the increased volatility, or other factors had an effect on the illiquidity as well (e.g.: the drastic change of market participants’ behaviour; reduction of fi nancing sources; etc.). I have represented volatility with the standard deviation of the logreturns, and with the true range, while the illiquidity with the Budapest Liquidity Measure (BLM). On one hand I have identifi ed, that in case of the OTP, the true range has a stronger relationship with the BLM than the standard deviation has. On the other hand it was clear, that the relationship between volatility and liquidity has changed notably during and after the crisis. During crisis the illiquidity was greater than what I have estimated based on the volatility increase, but after the crisis this relation has changed.

Az agilis szemlélet első két évtizede (First two decades of agility)

Az agilitás az elmúlt húsz év egyik fontos fogalma, amelyet több területen (gyártás, szoftverfejlesztés és projektmenedzsment) is több-kevesebb eredménnyel alkalmaztak. A hazai akadémiai diskurzus eddig mostohagyermekként kezelte e témákat, holott az érintett szakmák gyakorlati művelői számos alkalommal foglalkoztak velük. A szerző rövid áttekintést ad e területek fontosabb gondolatairól, majd ezek közül néhányat a vezetés-szervezés általánosabb tárgyalásmódjával vizsgál. Az agilis szemlélet mögött rejlő alapgondolatok egy része nem nevezhető újnak. A cikk az agilitás témájának pozicionálásával zárul. _____ The agility of is an important concept of the last twenty years, which is applied with more or less results in several areas (manufacturing, software development and project management) as well. The author gives a brief overview of the main ideas from these areas, and examines some of these with general aspects of leadership and management. The article concludes with the theme of the positioning of agility.

Stratégiai paradigmaváltás szervezeti verseny(képesség) és az Operations management központi szerepe (Central role of strategic paradigm change, corporate competitiveness and operations management)

Az elmúlt két évtized folyamán a menedzserek megtanultak a megújult szabályok szerint játszani. Tudatosították, hogy a vállalatuk eredményes navigálásához folyamatosan figyelniük és adaptálniuk kell a legújabb módszereket, elméleteket. Jelen tanulmányával a szerző ezt a folyamatot kívánja segíteni, valamint arra az alapvető kérdésre keresi a választ, hogy érdemes-e a rendkívül gyorsan változó világban hosszabb távú célok meghatározásával foglalkozni, és ha igen, akkor mire összpontosítsák a vállalatok erőfeszítéseiket. Milyen részletezettséggel, milyen módon határozzák meg az elképzeléseiket úgy, hogy közben megőrizzék a vállalat flexibilitását, a változások idején nélkülözhetetlen agilitást. A szerző arra vállalkozik, hogy feltárja a stratégiai paradigmaváltás fejlődését, a termelési stratégia, az operations management központi meghatározó szereppé válását, valamint áttekintse a termelési és szolgáltatási rendszervezetés (OM) elveinek, eszközeinek, módszereinek fejlődését, kölcsönhatását, összefüggéseit. _______ Change of paradigm has taken place in strategic planning. Fight for position turned into a fight of movement. Companies strive to achieve individual, not copyable organizational performance, as well as to realize their business strategies by means of value generating, proactive approach. Operative management now placed in the focus of production strategy is becoming the compass, the driving force of leadership. The management of production and service systems has grown into independent scientific disciplines. It yielded such principles, tools and methods which are present as world-renowned blueprints (scientific tools) in the field of maintaining and developing corporate performance. In the present study the author specifies and discusses the tools of operative management as criteria of value generation aiming at quality and cost efficiency. He analyses the backto- back character, interrelationship of quality, TQM (Total Quality Management), TPS (Toyota Production System) and JIT (Just in Time). He examines the effects thereof on corporate performance where significant and strong relationship can be demonstrated in case there is an ability to plan and develop new products. The current new OM (Operations Management) techniques increasingly rely upon the quality of human resources, the permanent improvement of procedures as well as focusing on tight cooperation with suppliers/customers. Supply chain management, core competence management, service management now represent a “new generation” of the OM methods, processes, serving at the same time as basis and starting point for expectable future techniques as well.

Implicit rating: A potential new method to alert crisis on the interbank lending market

A new measure called “implicit rating” is introduced which might be a component of an early warning system. The proposed methodology relies on the aggregation of experts’ knowledge hidden in the transactional data of the interbank market of unsecured loans. Banks are simultaneously assessing the creditworthiness of each other which is reflected in the partner limits and in the interest rates. In the Hungarian interbank market the overall trading volume and the average interest rate did not show any negative trends before the crisis of 2008, however the average implicit partner limit started to decrease several months earlier, hence it might serve as a stress indicator.

Marketing practices and their effectiveness in Taiwan's colleges of technology

The main purpose of this study was to investigate marketing practices in Taiwan's institutions of higher education and their relationship with students' college choice behaviors and attitudes. The study was conducted in 11 Taiwan's colleges of technology. It employed a multistrand conversion mixed model design, consisting of a qualitative and a quantitative strand. Funnel-sequenced interviews were conducted with 19 college administrators and the results were content analyzed using a constant-comparative method. The administrator interview data were also quantitized and used in cluster analysis of the institutions. Questionnaire data were collected from 1474 freshmen students, and analyzed using several univariate and multivariate statistical techniques including factor analysis, MANOVA, and correspondence analysis. ^ Analyses indicated that a weak relationship existed between institutions' marketing intensity and students' college choice. Students did not consider institutions' recruitment activities useful in their college searching process. They also reported little knowledge of their current school when they were deciding to enroll. Data analysis also revealed that students were practically oriented in their college selection. Academic resources, employability after graduation, and tuition were the most important attributes in students' college selection. Parents and students' social network such as friends and high school teachers were significant personal sources in enrollment decisions while institutions' representatives (i.e., recruiters) were considered the least influential. ^ Using cluster analysis, institutions were divided into three groups based on intensity of marketing efforts. Multivariate analysis of variance did not reveal significant differences between the college choice behaviors and attitudes of students who entered these three types of institutions. ^ Content analysis of the administrators' interviews indicated that the majority of them practiced passive marketing. This was primarily as a result of resistance to active marketing, lack of leadership commitment, insufficient financial and human resources, little faculty involvement, and inexperience in marketing. In comparison to public institutions, private institutions showed a more favorable attitude towards marketing concepts. They were well advanced in their recruitment activities while public schools were relatively hesitant to use marketing. Curriculum issues were not well represented in marketing activities and did not seem to be impacted by marketing needs. Based on the analysis of qualitative and quantitative data, it can be concluded that in these colleges, curriculum was more driven by commercial and industrial interest than by students' demands. ^ Theoretical, policy, and methodological implementation of the results were discussed. ^

A case study: Perceptions of the induction process of intern principals in Broward County Public Schools

The case study is a qualitative study of the perceptions of a purposeful sample of intern principal participants in Broward County Public School's 2001-2003 principal leadership induction program through survey, interview and document analysis of their experiences concerning their success or failure in achieving the position of principal. The study focused on constructs of professional and organizational socialization and instructional leadership that research suggests are vital and integrated components of the effective development of aspiring instructional leaders. ^ The findings revealed that purposeful mentoring, a variety of site placement, hands on practical experiences, in addition to the quality of experience measured by the number of years prior experience are positively reported to affect the degrees of success perceived by intern principals. The study validated the interrelatedness of the three constructs professional and organizational socialization and instructional leadership as components that are realized in the development process through formal and informal characteristics of socialization. The data gathered would be of benefit to principal leadership program designers to assist in their understanding of participants' successes and failures that influence individual needs based on their experience as perceived by this group. ^ Implications for further study are the need for better understanding of leadership development, continued reinforcement of best practices such as mentoring, site shadowing and coaching, clarification of the administrator's role, data analysis, curriculum implementation and student achievement. Organizations need to implement a common set of expectations, reasoning, attitudes, and understanding of purpose that guide behaviors. Recommendations are to design leadership induction programs to meet individual strengths and weaknesses not a one-size-fits-all program including a constructive and prescriptive two-way feedback system, select and assign mentors based on their expertise and candidate needs, varied site placements, develop skills to build collaborative relationships, and a standards based monitoring and assessment system to document program mastery and completion. ^

Spirituality and transformational leadership in education

The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationship between school principals' self-reported spirituality and their transformational leadership behaviors. The relationship between spirituality and transactional leadership behaviors was also explored. The study used Bass and Avolio's (1984) Full Range Leadership Model as the theoretical framework conceptualizing transformational leadership. Data were collected using online surveys. Overall, six principals and sixty-nine teachers participated in the study. Principal surveys contained three parts: the Multifactor Leadership Questionnaire (MLQ Form-5X Short), the modified Spirituality Well-Being Scale (SWBS) and demographic information. Teacher surveys included two parts: the MLQ-5X and demographic information. The MLQ-5X was used to identify the degree of principals' transformational and transactional leadership behaviors. The modified SWBS (Existential Well Being) was used to determine principals' degree of spirituality. The correlation coefficients for the transformational leadership styles of inspirational motivation and idealized behavioral influence were significantly related to principals' spirituality. In addition, a multiple regression analysis including the five measures of transformational leadership as predictors suggested that spirituality is positively related to an individual's transformational leadership behaviors. A multiple regression analysis utilizing a linear combination of all transformational leadership and transactional measures was predictive of spirituality. Finally, it appears that the inspirational motivation measure of transformational leadership accounts for a significant amount of unique variance independent of the other seven transformational and transactional leadership measures in predicting spirituality. Based on the findings from this study, the researcher proposed a modification of Bass and Avolio's (1985) Full Range Leadership Model. An additional dimension, spirituality, was added to the continuum of leadership styles. The findings from this study imply that principals' self-reported levels of spirituality was related to their being perceived as displaying transformational leadership behaviors. Principals who identified themselves as "spiritual", were more likely to be characterized by the transformational leadership style of inspirational motivation.

The market value implications of pension asset allocation

Pension funds have been part of the private sector since the 1850's. Defined Benefit pension plans [DB], where a company promises to make regular contributions to investment accounts held for participating employees in order to pay a promised lifelong annuity, are significant capital markets participants, amounting to 2.3 trillion dollars in 2010 (Federal Reserve Board, 2013). In 2006, Statement of Financial Accounting Standards No.158 (SFAS 158), Employers' Accounting for Defined Benefit Pension and Other Postemployment Plans, shifted information concerning funding status and pension asset/liability composition from disclosure in the footnotes to recognition in the financial statements. I add to the literature by being the first to examine the effect of recent pension reform during the financial crisis of 2008-09. This dissertation is comprised of three related essays. In my first essay, I investigate whether investors assign different pricing multiples to the various classes of pension assets when valuing firms. The pricing multiples on all classes of assets are significantly different from each other, but only investments in bonds and equities were value-relevant during the recent financial crisis. Consistent with investors viewing pension liabilities as liabilities of the firm, the pricing multiples on pension liabilities are significantly larger than those on non-pension liabilities. The only pension costs significantly associated with firm value are actual rate of return and interest expense. In my second essay, I investigate the role of accruals in predicting future cash flows, extending the Barth et al. (2001a) model of the accrual process. Using market value of equity as a proxy for cash flows, the results of this study suggest that aggregate accounting amounts mask how the components of earnings affect investors' ability to predict future cash flows. Disaggregating pension earnings components and accruals results in an increase in predictive power. During the 2008-2009 financial crisis, however, investors placed a greater (and negative) weight on the incremental information contained in the individual components of accruals. The inferences are robust to alternative specifications of accruals. Finally, in my third essay I investigate how investors view under-funded plans. On average, investors: view deficits arising from under-funded plans as belonging to the firm; reward firms with fully or over-funded pension plans; and encourage those funds with unfunded pension plans to become funded. Investors also encourage conservative pension asset allocations to mitigate firm risk, and smaller firms are perceived as being better able to handle the risk associated with underfunded plans. During the financial crisis of 2008-2009 underfunded status had a lower negative association with market value. In all three models, there are significant differences in pre- and post- SFAS 158 periods. These results are robust to various scenarios of the timing of the financial crisis and an alternative measure of funding.

When Poverty Becomes Profitable: A Critical Discourse Analysis of Microfinancial Development in Haiti

For the past thirty years, policymakers have lauded microfinance for its promises to reduce poverty and empower women in developing nations. First conceived by the Bangladeshi economist Muhammed Yunus and the bank he founded, microfinance has been hailed as a visionary project that promises to advance the economic interests of the poor by engaging them directly. Conventional studies by political scientists explore the place of microfinance in the global development architecture of international financial institutions, governments, and NGOs. Economic studies of its effectiveness are contributing to a crisis of legitimacy since they reveal that thousands of clients in developing nations continue to default on their loans due to predatory lending practices. Drawing on discourse analysis methodology, this article seeks to explain how microfinance, an industry embedded in the financialization of development, is now concerned with high financial returns for investments, not the social goals promised by its original raison d'être. Treating microfinance as a discourse, I argue that there is a fundamental tension between the short-term social goals promised by microfinance and the long-term financial objectives of sustainability of investors.

The relationships between elementary school principals' emotional intelligence, leadership style and school culture

The role of the principal in school settings and the principal's perceived effect on student achievement have frequently been considered vital factors in school reform. The relationships between emotional intelligence, leadership style and school culture have been widely studied. The literature reveals agreement among scholars regarding the principal's vital role in developing and fostering a positive school culture. The purpose of this study was to explore the relationships between elementary school principals' emotional intelligence, leadership style and school culture. ^ The researcher implemented a non-experimental ex post facto research design to investigate four specific research hypotheses. Utilizing the Qualtrics Survey Software, 57 elementary school principals within a large urban school district in southeast Florida completed the Emotional Quotient Inventory (EQ-i), and 850 of their faculty members completed the Multifactor Leadership Questionnaire (MLQ Form 5X). Faculty responses to the school district's School Climate Survey retrieved from the district's web site were used as the measure of school culture. ^ Linear regression analyses revealed significant positive associations between emotional intelligence and the following leadership measures: Idealized Influence-Attributes (β = .23, p = < .05), Idealized Influence-Behaviors (β = .34, p = < .01), Inspirational Motivation (β = .39, p = < .01) and Contingent Reward (β = .33, p = < .01). Hierarchical regression analyses revealed positive associations between school culture and both transformational and transactional leadership measures, and negative associations between school culture and passive-avoidant leadership measures. Significant positive associations were found between school culture and the principals' emotional intelligence over and above leadership style. Hierarchical linear regressions to test the statistical hypothesis developed to account for alternative explanations revealed significant associations between leadership style and school culture over and above school grade. ^ These results suggest that emotional intelligence merits consideration in the development of leadership theory. Practical implications include suggestions that principals employ both transformational and transactional leadership strategies, and focus on developing their level of emotional intelligence. The associations between emotional intelligence, transformational leadership, Contingent Reward and school culture found in this study validate the role of the principal as the leader of school reform.^

La respuesta liberal de Edmund Burke a la crisis de legitimidad política del siglo XVIII

Edmund Burke is both the greatest and the most underrated political thinker of the last three hundred years. We could not agree more with this assertion of Jesse Norman. Very few political-statesmen have attainted the enormous repercussion both in politics and in history that Burke had deployed over the last centuries. Nevertheless, Burke remains unfairly unknown for a wider public. And what it is more, the vast majority tend to think of him as a conservative, if not a liberal-conservative. A prior precision has to be made before continuing regarding the term liberal for the sake of accuracy. Burke was a prominent Whig, what in Spanish language we describe as a liberal, in the sense that both Hayek and Milton Friedman uttered, far from the meaning “kidnapped” of the word liberal by the Anglo-Saxon left. The object of this thesis is to investigate the non-solved controversy on Burke`s figure and the liberal answer he provided with to the political crisis of legitimacy of the 18th century. There is an existing shared opinion by the academia that prior to the Reflections on the Revolution of France, his masterpiece, he was an outstanding and prominent Whig. Champion of liberty, justice and good governance, guardian of liberal virtues and the authentic developer of the efficient policy put in place by the Marquis of Rockingham in order to curb the corruption and influence emanating from the court of George the Third and his double cabinet.

Crisis and Welfare Society in Spain

Some arguments are briefly presented about the negative consequences of the deep global economic and financial crisis of 2008 on the economic activity and the social situation in Spain. Reformulation, sustainability and financial viability of social welfare in Spain require a new management through resource efficiency, increasing market presence and initiative of stakeholders as a whole. In this sense, the main credible argument of the welfare social in Spain depends on a new perspective on socialization and generosity of social protection system. Specifically, the solution to the crisis must come through economic growth, increased productivity, employment and competitiveness and not by the way of increasing levels of social protection.

Leader's reflections on knowledge, knowing and not knowing: an analysis of change over time

One commonality across the leadership and knowledge related literature is the apparent neglect of the leaders own knowledge. This thesis sought to address this issue through conducting exploratory research into the content of leader’s personal knowledge and the process of knowing it. The empirical inquiry adopted a longitudinal approach, with interviews conducted at two separate time periods with an extended time-interval between each. The findings from this research contrast with images of leadership which suggest leaders are in control of what they know, that they own their own knowledge. The picture that emerges is one of individuals struggling to keep abreast of the knowledge required to deal with the dynamics and uncertainties of organisational life. Much knowledge is tacit, provisional and perishable and the related process of knowing more organic, evolutionary and informal than any structured or orchestrated approach. The collective nature of knowing is a central feature, with these leaders embedded in networks of uncontrollable relationships. In view of the indeterminate nature of knowing, the boundary between what is known and what one needs to know is both amorphous and ephemeral, and the likelihood of knowledge-absences is escalated. A significant finding in this regard is the identification of two critical points where not-knowing is most likely (entry and exit from role) and the differing implications of each. Overtime the knowledge that is legitimised or prioritised is significantly altered as these leaders replace the dogmas that were previously held in high esteem with the lessons from their own experience. This experience brings increased self-knowledge and a deeper appreciation of the values and morals instilled in their early lives. In view of the above findings, this study makes theoretical contribution to a number of core literatures: authentic leadership, role transition and knowledge-absences. In terms of leadership development, the findings point to the necessity to prepare leaders for the challenges they will encounter at the pivotal stages of the leadership role.

Weathering the crisis? Managing democracy at a national broadcaster

With post-2008 political and economic crises as its backdrop, this inquiry into the political roles and functions of public service broadcasting (PSB) in Ireland is principally concerned with examining the capacities for and actuality of critical and counter-hegemonic professional journalistic and institutional mediations of crisis. Recognising the diversity of influences on the normative identity of Irish PSB, the dissertation adopts a sociological approach that acknowledges the systemic embedding of media institutions in the broader field of power. An initial tracing of the formative impacts of endogenous and exogenous forces on the democratic horizons of PSB suggests that the present crisis conjuncture does not represent promising terrain for engendering critical crisis and recovery imaginaries. A methodologically diverse intra-institutional empirical research agenda aims to explore at close hand Irish PSB’s contingent navigation of crisis, encompassing ethnographic observation in the newsroom, practitioner interviews and textual analysis of broadcast output. These methods afford close analysis of practices of journalistic production and reflexivity, self-conceptions of the journalistic habitus, and ideological affinities of crisis framings in broadcast output. These analyses are supplemented by a participant observation study of the possibilities for public agenda-building in a key institutional venue of public participation in broadcasting governance. The findings offer an evidential basis for the arguments that the crisis has prompted only minimal changes to professional norms and practices of representation and inclusion; that journalistic crisis framings tend toward effecting hegemonic repair by lending support to neoliberal crisis and recovery imaginaries; and that the institutional openings for the building of public counterpower are highly constrained. The overall conclusion is made that the normative democratic orientation embedded in the professional and institutional projects of public service broadcasting help render it ill-equipped to act as a re-democratising countervailing power against the democratic regressions engendered by the present crisis of democratic capitalism.

José Aricó y la "crisis de civilización" : La búsqueda de una imbricación democrático-socialista para un desarrollo de la "dilatación de la subjetividad" (1979-1986)

Moviéndonos entre la sociología política y la historia intelectual, abordaremos en este trabajo aspectos de la obra del "gramsciano argentino" José María Aricó (1931-1991). Con una reconocida actividad político-intelectual desarrollada en su país durante tres décadas, el golpe militar de 1976 obliga a Aricó a marchar al exilio. Anclado en México, la temática de la transición a la democracia, acuciante en distintos países de América Latina y de Europa, lo hace desembocar en una serie de estudios sobre vínculos entre la tradición democrática y la socialista, sobre la noción de progreso y sobre el preocupante divorcio que entre cultura y política se viene profundizando desde los tiempos de la Segunda Guerra Mundial. Siempre con los escritos de Gramsci latiendo en el núcleo de sus preocupaciones, Aricó regresa a la Argentina en 1983. Considerando que ni el liberalismo, ni el marxismo-leninismo, ni el populismo, ni la socialdemocracia pueden ya contribuir al montaje de un "pensamiento fuerte" de expectativas emancipatorias, profundizando además en la temática de la "dilatación de la subjetividad" y en un manejo desprejuiciado de la obra del intelectual reaccionario alemán Carl Schmitt, Aricó ensaya un recorrido inédito, estimulado por la idea-fuerza de una "democracia social avanzada", capaz de dar respuestas ambiciosas a aquello que viene señalando como una crisis de civilización.