Essays on Development Policy and the Political Economy of Conflict

Electoral Rules and Leader Selection: Experimental Evidence from Ugandan Community Groups. Despite a large body of work documenting how electoral systems affect policy outcomes, less is known about their impact on leader selection. We study this by comparing two types of participatory decision making in Ugandan community groups: (i) vote by secret ballot and (ii) open discussion with consensus. Random assignment allows us to estimate the causal impact of the rules on leader types and social service delivery. Vote groups are found to elect leaders more similar to the average member while discussion group leaders are positively selected on socio-economic characteristics. Further, dropout rates are significantly higher in discussion groups, particularly for poorer members. After 3.5 years, vote groups are larger in size and their members save less and get smaller loans. We conclude that the secret ballot vote creates more inclusive groups while open discussion groups favor the already economically successful. Preparing for Genocide: Community Meetings in Rwanda. How do political elites prepare the civilian population for participation in violent conflict? We empirically investigate this question using data from the Rwandan Genocide in 1994. Every Saturday before 1994, Rwandan villagers had to meet to work on community infrastructure. The practice was highly politicized and, according to anecdotal evidence, regularly used by the political elites for spreading propaganda in the years before the genocide. This paper presents the first quantitative evidence of this abuse of the community meetings. To establish causality, we exploit cross-sectional variation in meeting intensity induced by exogenous weather fluctuations. We find that an additional rainy Saturday resulted in a five percent lower civilian participation rate in genocide violence. Selection into Borrowing: Survey Evidence from Uganda. In this paper, I study how changes to the standard credit contract affect loan demand and selection into borrowing, using a representative sample of urban micro enterprises, most with no borrowing experience. Hypothetical loan demand questions are used to test whether firm owners respond to changes in loans' contractual terms and whether take-up varies by firms' risk type and other firm owner characteristics. The results indicate that contracts with lower interest rates and less stringent collateral requirements attract less risky borrowers, suggesting that there is scope for improvement of standard financial contract terms. Credit Contract Structure and Firm Growth: Evidence from a Randomized Control Trial. We study the effects of credit contract structure on firm outcomes among small and medium sized firms. A randomized control trial was carried out to distinguish between some of the key constraints to efficient credit use connected to the firms' business environment and production function, namely (i) backloaded returns (ii) uncertain returns and (iii) indivisible fixed costs. Each firm was followed for the 1-year loan cycle. We describe the experiment and present preliminary results from the first 754 out of 2,340 firms to have completed the loan cycle. Firms offered a grace period have higher profits and higher household income than firms receiving a rebate later on as well as the control group. They also increased the number of paid employees  and reduced the number of unpaid employees, an effect also found among firms that received a cash subsidy at the beginning of the loan cycle. We discuss potential mechanisms behind these effects.

The causal relationship between information and communication technology and foreign direct investment

This paper investigates the simultaneous causal relationship between investments in information and communication technology (ICT) and flows of foreign direct investment (FDI), with reference to its implications on economic growth. For the empirical analysis we use data from 23 major countries with heterogeneous economic development for the period 1976-99. Our causality test results suggest that there is a causal relationship from ICT to FDI in developed countries, which means that a higher level of ICT investment leads to an increase inflow of FDI. ICT may contribute to economic growth indirectly by attracting more FDI. Contrarily, we could not find significant causality from ICT to FDI in developing countries. Instead, we have partial evidence of opposite causality relationship: the inflow of FDI causes further increases in ICT investment and production capacity. © United Nations University 2006.

The UK productivity gap in the service sector: do management practices matter?

Purpose – This paper aims to contribute to the debate on the drivers of the productivity gap that exists between the UK and its major international competitors. Design/methodology/approach – From the macro perspective the paper explores the quantitative evidence on the productivity differentials and how they are measured. From the micro perspective, the article explores the quantitative evidence on the role of management practices claimed to be a key determinant in promoting firm competitiveness and in bridging the UK gap. Findings – This study suggests that management practices are an ambiguous driver of firm productivity and higher firm performance. On the methodological side, qualitative and subjective measures of either management practices or firm performance are often used. This makes the results not comparable across studies, across firms or even within firms over time. Productivity and profitability are often and erroneously interchangeably used while productivity is only one element of firm performance. On the other hand, management practices are multi-dimensional constructs that generally do not demonstrate a straightforward relationship with productivity variables. To assume that they are the only driver of higher productivity may be misleading. Moreover, there is evidence of an inverse causal relationship between management practices and firm performance. This calls into question most empirical results of the extant literature based on the unidirectional assumption of direct causality between management practices and firm performance. Research limitations/implications – These and other issues suggest that more research is needed to deepen the understanding of the UK productivity gap and more quantitative evidence should be provided on the way in which management practices contribute to the UK competitiveness. Their impact is not easily measurable due to their complexity and their complementary nature and this is a fertile ground for further research. Originality/value – This paper brings together the evidence on the UK productivity gap and its main drivers, provided by the economics, management and performance measurement literature. This issue scores very highly in the agenda of policy makers and academics and has important implications for practitioners interested in evaluating the impact of managerial best practices.

Intelligent execution monitoring and error analysis in planning involving processes

An intelligent agent, operating in an external world which cannot be fully described in its internal world model, must be able to monitor the success of a previously generated plan and to respond to any errors which may have occurred. The process of error analysis requires the ability to reason in an expert fashion about time and about processes occurring in the world. Reasoning about time is needed to deal with causality. Reasoning about processes is needed since the direct effects of a plan action can be completely specified when the plan is generated, but the indirect effects cannot. For example, the action `open tap' leads with certainty to `tap open', whereas whether there will be a fluid flow and how long it might last is more difficult to predict. The majority of existing planning systems cannot handle these kinds of reasoning, thus limiting their usefulness. This thesis argues that both kinds of reasoning require a complex internal representation of the world. The use of Qualitative Process Theory and an interval-based representation of time are proposed as a representation scheme for such a world model. The planning system which was constructed has been tested on a set of realistic planning scenarios. It is shown that even simple planning problems, such as making a cup of coffee, require extensive reasoning if they are to be carried out successfully. The final Chapter concludes that the planning system described does allow the correct solution of planning problems involving complex side effects, which planners up to now have been unable to solve.

Openness and economic growth

The themes of this thesis are that international trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) are closely related and that they have varying impacts on economic growth in countries at different stages of development. The thesis consists of three empirical studies. The first one examines the causal relationship between FDI and trade in China. The empirical study is based on a panel of bilateral data for China and 19 home countries/regions over the period 1984-98. The specific feature of the study is that econometric techniques designed specially for panel data are applied to test for unit roots and causality. The results indicate a virtuous procedure of development for China. The growth of China’s imports causes growth in inward FDI from a home country/region, which in turn causes the growth of exports from China to the home country/region. The growth of exports causes the growth of imports. This virtuous procedure is the result of China’s policy of opening to the outside world. China has been encouraging export-oriented FDI and reducing trade barriers. Such policy instruments should be further encouraged in order to enhance economic growth. In the second study, an extended gravity model is constructed to identify the main causes of recent trade growth in OECD countries. The specific features include (a) the explicit introduction of R&D and FDI as two important explanatory variables into an augmented gravity equation; (b) the adoption of a panel data approach, and (c) the careful treatment of endogeneity. The main findings are that the levels and similarities of market size, domestic R&D stock and inward FDI stock are positively related to the volume of bilateral trade, while the geographical distance, exchange rate and relative factor endowments, has a negative impact. These findings lend support to new trade, FDI and economic growth theories. The third study evaluates the impact of openness on growth in different country groups. This research distinguishes itself from many existing studies in three aspects: first, both trade and FDI are included in the measurement of openness. Second, countries are divided' into three groups according to their development stages to compare the roles of FDI and trade in different groups. Third, the possible problems of endogeneity and multicollinearity of FDI and trade are carefully dealt with in a panel data setting. The main findings are that FDI and trade are both beneficial to a country's development. However, trade has positive effects on growth in all country groups but FDI has positive effects on growth only in the country groups which have had moderate development. The findings suggest FDI and trade may affect growth under different conditions.

On a distinction between casual and formative variable models:theoretical issues and practical implications for organizational researchers

Formative measurement has seen increasing acceptance in organizational research since the turn of the 21st Century. However, in more recent times, a number of criticisms of the formative approach have appeared. Such work argues that formatively-measured constructs are empirically ambiguous and thus flawed in a theory-testing context. The aim of the present paper is to examine the underpinnings of formative measurement theory in light of theories of causality and ontology in measurement in general. In doing so, a thesis is advanced which draws a distinction between reflective, formative, and causal theories of latent variables. This distinction is shown to be advantageous in that it clarifies the ontological status of each type of latent variable, and thus provides advice on appropriate conceptualization and application. The distinction also reconciles in part both recent supportive and critical perspectives on formative measurement. In light of this, advice is given on how most appropriately to model formative composites in theory-testing applications, placing the onus on the researcher to make clear their conceptualization and operationalisation.

Trade balance and real exchange rate:new evidence from Mauritius-UK trade

Two main questions are addressed here: is there a long-run relationship between trade balance and real exchange rate for the bilateral trade between Mauritius and UK? Does a J-curve exist for this bilateral trade? Our findings suggest that the real exchange rate is cointegrated with the trade balance and we find evidence of a J-curve effect. We also find bidirectional causality between the trade balance and the real exchange rate in the long-run. The real exchange rate also causes the trade balance in the short-run. In an out-of-sample forecasting experiment, we also find that real exchange rate contains useful information that can explain future movements in the trade balance.

Controlling feeding practices:cause or consequence of early child weight?

INTRODUCTION. The exertion of control during child feeding has been associated with both underweight and overweight during childhood. What is as-yet unclear is whether controlling child feeding practices causally affect child weight or whether the use of control may be a reactive response to concerns about high or low child weight. The aims of this study were to explore the direction of causality in these relationships during infancy. METHODS. Sixty-two women gave informed consent to take part in this longitudinal study that spanned from birth to 2 years of child age. Mothers completed the Child Feeding Questionnaire at 1 year, and their children were weighed at 1 and 2 years of age. Child weight scores were converted into standardized z scores that accounted for child age and gender. RESULTS. Controlling for child weight at 1 year, the use of pressure to eat and restriction at 1 year significantly predicted lower child weight at 2 years. CONCLUSIONS. Controlling feeding practices in infancy have an impact on children's weight at 2 years. The use of restrictive child feeding practices during infancy predicts lower child weight at age 2 years, which may reinforce mothers' use of this strategy in the longer term despite its potential association with disinhibition and greater child weight in later childhood.

How HR can inspire the teamwork that allows innovation to flourish

Innovation is vital if organisations are to deal effectively with social and economic change. Yet few studies have looked at the relationship between teamworking and innovation – or, indeed, other organisational outcomes. Our research aimed to fill this gap by exploring the extent to which team-based working in small- and medium- sized manufacturing organisations predicted product innovation. The results show that levels of innovation are higher in organisations using work-based teams than in those with alternative structural arrangements. We also found that effective HRM practices, such as sophisticated selection, induction, appraisal, training and remuneration management, created an environment that allowed teams to excel. The study drew on a variety of sources, including data on organisational-level innovation gathered through a postal survey. Respondents gave estimates of the number of new or adapted products developed in the past two years. They also detailed the percentage of production workers involved in making the new products; sales turnover accounted for by these products; and how far production processes had been changed to accommodate the innovations. We measured HRM effectiveness and the extent of teamworking via interviews with the relevant HR or production manager. We then rated each organisation on a scale of one to five, according to how effective its HRM practices were. We also examined the percentage of staff at management and shopfloor levels engaged in teamworking. The research design was longitudinal, in that the data on product innovation was collected six months to a year after the main questionnaire on teamworking was conducted. Other studies addressing these questions have tended to be cross-sectional, measuring both variables at the same time. Longitudinal studies generally make a stronger case for causality. Perhaps of most theoretical significance is the finding that teamworking combined with effective HR systems explains more of the variance for product innovation than teamworking alone. This is in line with J Richard Hackman (1990), who argued that organisational context affected team performance in various ways – for example, through offering a framework for the administration of reward and the exchange of knowledge and through promoting learning-oriented beliefs. Our work supports these ideas. This study also has practical implications. Increasing the number of teams may be an important step in determining the extent to which they can innovate on a sustained basis. Organisations should therefore consider what HRM practices are most likely to foster team innovation. They might, for example, explore how helpful it would be to develop team-based appraisal and better designed teamworking training. Developing support structures that enable teams to achieve outstanding performance may present a challenge, but our results suggest that such an approach will be worth the effort. Key points: • The greater the percentage of staff working in teams, the higher the level of innovation. • This applies to both management and production teams. • Where sophisticated and effective HRM practices are in place, the relationship between team-based working and product innovation becomes more pronounced. • Both cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses show strong relationships between team-based working and product innovation.

Burden or benefit? Regulation as a dynamic influence on small business performance

This article contributes to contemporary debates concerning the impact of regulation on small business performance. Reassessing previous studies, we build our insights on their useful, but partial, approaches. Prior studies treat regulation principally as a static and negative influence, thereby neglecting the full range of regulatory effects on business performance. This study adopts a more nuanced approach, one informed by critical realism, that conceptualises social reality as stratified, and social causality in terms of the actions of human agents situated within particular social-structural contexts. We theorise regulation as a dynamic force, enabling as well as constraining performance, generating contradictory performance effects. Such regulatory effects flow directly from adaptations to regulation, and indirectly via relationships with the wide range of close and distant stakeholders with whom small businesses interact. Future research should examine these contradictory regulatory influences on small business performance.

Causal relationship between HRM policies and organisational performance:evidence from the Greek manufacturing sector

Blending insights from the contingency theory, the resource-based view, and the AMO theory, the purpose of this paper is to investigate the HRM-performance causal relationship in the Greek context. The empirical research is based on a sample of 178 organisations operating in the Greek manufacturing sector. Using structural equation modelling the results of the study revealed that the ability to perform (resourcing and development), motivation to perform (compensation and incentives), and opportunity to perform (involvement and job design) HRM policy domains are moderated by business strategies (cost, quality, innovation), and additionally, the motivation to perform is further moderated by managerial style and organisational culture. Further, the results indicate that the impact of HRM policies on organisational performance is fully mediated by employee skills, attitudes, and behaviour. The paper concludes that although the motivation to perform HRM policy domain causes organisational performance, through employee attitudes, it may be supported that organisational performance positively moderates the effectiveness of this HRM policy domain, raising thus the question of reverse causality.

Interpreting adverse signals in diabetes drug development programs

Detection and interpretation of adverse signals during preclinical and clinical stages of drug development inform the benefit-risk assessment that determines suitability for use in real-world situations. This review considers some recent signals associated with diabetes therapies, illustrating the difficulties in ascribing causality and evaluating absolute risk, predictability, prevention, and containment. Individual clinical trials are necessarily restricted for patient selection, number, and duration; they can introduce allocation and ascertainment bias and they often rely on biomarkers to estimate long-term clinical outcomes. In diabetes, the risk perspective is inevitably confounded by emergent comorbid conditions and potential interactions that limit therapeutic choice, hence the need for new therapies and better use of existing therapies to address the consequences of protracted glucotoxicity. However, for some therapies, the adverse effects may take several years to emerge, and it is evident that faint initial signals under trial conditions cannot be expected to foretell all eventualities. Thus, as information and experience accumulate with time, it should be accepted that benefit-risk deliberations will be refined, and adjustments to prescribing indications may become appropriate. © 2013 by the American Diabetes Association.

Maternal core beliefs and children's feeding problems

Background: Although maternal mental health problems have been implicated in the exacerbation of childhood feeding difficulties, little research has assessed the contribution of broader maternal cognitions to these problems. The current study examined gender differences in the relationships between mothers' core beliefs and children's feeding problems. Methods: One hundred and three mothers of girls and 93 mothers of boys (age range, 7-64 months) completed the Young Schema Questionnaire and the Child Feeding Assessment Questionnaire. Results: While controlling for child age, a clear link between maternal core beliefs and perceived feeding difficulties emerged for mothers of girls. In particular, abandonment, failure to achieve, dependence and incompetence, enmeshment and defectiveness, and shame beliefs were associated with increased reports of feeding problems in girls. In contrast, emotional deprivation and subjugation beliefs were associated with maternal reports of food fussiness and food refusal in boys. Conclusions: There appears to be a clear role for maternal core beliefs in the reporting of feeding difficulties in children, and the specificity of these links differs depending on the gender of the child. Further research is required to establish the direction of causality and the specificity of these relationships. © 2005 by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Material and efficient cause interpretations of the formative model:resolving misunderstandings and clarifying conceptual language

This paper presents a causal explanation of formative variables that unpacks and clarifies the generally accepted idea that formative indicators are ‘causes’ of the focal formative variable. In doing this, we explore the recent paper by Diamantopoulos and Temme (AMS Review, 3(3), 160-171, 2013) and show that the latter misunderstand the stance of Lee, Cadogan, and Chamberlain (AMS Review, 3(1), 3-17, 2013; see also Cadogan, Lee, and Chamberlain, AMS Review, 3(1), 38-49, 2013). By drawing on the multiple ways that one can interpret the idea of causality within the MIMIC model, we then demonstrate how the continued defense of the MIMIC model as a tool to validate formative indicators and to identify formative variables in structural models is misguided. We also present unambiguous recommendations on how formative variables can be modelled in lieu of the formative MIMIC model.

Perceptions of a changing world induce hope and promote peace in intractable conflicts

The importance of hope in promoting conciliatory attitudes has been asserted in the field of conflict resolution. However, little is known about conditions inducing hope, especially in intractable conflicts, where reference to the outgroup may backfire. In the current research, five studies yielded convergent support for the hypothesis that hope for peace stems from a general perception of the world as changing. In Study 1, coders observed associations between belief in a changing world, hope regarding peace, and support for concessions. Study 2 revealed the hypothesized relations using self-reported measures. Studies 3 and 4 established causality by instilling a perception of the world as changing (vs. unchanging) using narrative and drawing manipulations. Study 5 compared the changing world message with a control condition during conflict escalation. Across studies, although the specific context was not referred to, the belief in a changing world increased support for concessions through hope for peace.