Trade of Heilongjiang Province (China) with Russia

Local trade between the Far East region of the USSR and the Northeast region of the People’s Republic of China started in 1957, arranged by the public trade organizations in the respective borderlands. Heilongjiang Province of China has been the main actor in trade with the Far East region of the USSR, and more recently, Russia. After 1957, Heilongjiang Province’s trade with the Russian Far East developed rapidly until 1993, except a period of interruption (1967-1982). Thereafter, the Heilongjiang Province’s trade with the Russian Far East underwent a stagnation period (1994-1998), a recovery period (1999-2001), a rapid development period (2002-2007) and a period of change of tendencies and radical decrease (2008-2009). Heilongjiang Province’s trade with the Russian Far East consists of three main forms: general trade, Chinese-style border trade (Bianjing Trade which includes Bianjing Small Trade and trade between private persons (Hushi Trade)) and Travel Trade. The rapid increase of Heilongjiang Province’s trade with the Russian Far East from 2002 to 2007 is mainly attributable to the increase in the export of ordinary consumer goods, especially textile clothing and footwear, and to Bianjing Small Trade.

Domestic, vertical, and horizontal multinationals : a general equilibrium approach using the "knowledge capital model"

One of the key factors behind the growth in global trade in recent decades is an increase in intermediate input as a result of the development of vertical production networks (Feensta, 1998). It is widely recognized that the formation of production networks is due to the expansion of multinational enterprises' (MNEs) activities. MNEs have been differentiated into two types according to their production structure: horizontal and vertical foreign direct investment (FDI). In this paper, we extend the model presented by Zhang and Markusen (1999) to include horizontal and vertical FDI in a model with traded intermediates, using numerical general equilibrium analysis. The simulation results show that horizontal MNEs are more likely to exist when countries are similar in size and in relative factor endowments. Vertical MNEs are more likely to exist when countries differ in relative factor endowments, and trade costs are positive. From the results of the simulation, lower trade costs of final goods and differences in factor intensity are conditions for attracting vertical MNEs.

Food safety control system of Chinese eel exports and its challenges

This paper analyzes factors associated with the rejection of products at ports of importer countries and remedial actions taken by producers in China. As an example, it uses one of the most competitive agro-food products of China: live and processed eels. This paper provides an overview of eel production and trade trends in China. In addition, it identifies the causes of port rejection of Chinese eel products as veterinary drug residues by examining the detailed case studies of export firms and the countermeasures taken by the government and firms.

The water footprint of olives and olive oil in Spain

This paper evaluates the water footprint of Spanish olives and olive oil over the period 1997-2008. In particular, it analyses the three colour components of the water footprint: green (rainwater stored in the soil), blue (surface and groundwater) and grey (freshwater required to assimilate load of pollutants). Apparent water productivity and virtual water embedded in olive oil exports have also been studied. Results show more than 99.5% of the water footprint of one liter of bottled olive oil is related to the olive production, whereas less than 0.5% is due to the other components such as bottle, cap and label. Over the studied period, the green water footprint in absolute terms of Spanish olive oil production represents about 72% in rainfed systems and just 12% in irrigated olive orchards. Blue and grey water footprints represent 6% and 10% of the national water footprint, respectively. It is shown that olive production is concentrated in regions with the smallest water footprint per unit of product. However, the increase of groundwater consumption in the main olive producing region (Andalusia), from 98 to 378 Mm3 between 1997 and 2008, has added significant pressure in the upstream Guadalquivir basin. This raises questions about the sustainability of irrigated olive orchards for export from the region. Finally, the virtual water related to olive oil exports illustrate the importance of green water footprint of rainfed olives amounting to about 77% of the total virtual water exports.

Parametric analysis on bridge reinforced concrete elevated pile-cap foundations

Current design practices recommend to comply with the capacity protection principle, which pays special attention to ensuring an elastic response of the foundations under ground motion events. However, in cases such as elevated reinforced concrete (RC) pile-cap foundation typologies, this design criterion may lead to conservative designs, with excessively high construction costs. Reinforced concrete elevated pile-cap foundations is a system formed by a group of partially embedded piles connected through an aboveground stayed cap and embedded in soil. In the cases when they are subjected to ground motions, the piles suffer large bending moments that make it difficult to maintain their behavior within the elastic range of deformations. Aiming to make an in-depth analysis of the nonlinear behavior of elevated pile-cap foundations, a cyclic loading test was performed on a concrete 2x3 pile configuration specimen of elevated pile-cap foundation. Two results of this test, the failure mechanism and the ductile behavior, were used for the calibration of a numerical model built in OpenSees framework, by using a pushover analysis. The calibration of the numerical model enabled an in-depth study of the seismic nonlinear response of this kind of foundations. A parametric analysis was carried for this purpose, aiming to study how sensitive RC elevated pile-cap foundations are, when subjected to variations in the diameter of piles, reinforcement ratios, external loads, soil density or multilayer configurations. This analysis provided a set of ductility factors that can be used as a reference for design practices and which correspond to each of the cases analyzed.

A multi-scale analysis of transforming agricultural markets in the context of globalization: implications for natural resources, food prices and rural poverty in Latin America

Vivimos una época en la que el mundo se transforma aceleradamente. La globalización está siguiendo un curso imparable, la población mundial así como la población urbana siguen creciendo, y en los países emergentes los ingresos promedios aumentan, resultando en un cambio también acelerado de las dietas y hábitos alimentarios. En conjunto esos factores están causando un aumento fundamental de la demanda de alimentos. Junto con la apertura de los mercados agrícolas, estos procesos han provocado un crecimiento del comercio internacional de alimentos durante la última década. Dado que muchos países de América Latina están dotados de abundancia de recursos naturales, estas tendencias han producido un crecimiento rápido de las exportaciones de bienes primarios desde América Latina al resto del mundo. En sólo 30 años la participación en el mercado agrícola de América Latina casi se ha duplicado, desde 10% en 1980 a 18% en 2010. Este aumento del comercio agrícola ha dado lugar a un debate sobre una serie de cuestiones cruciales relacionadas con los impactos del comercio en la seguridad alimentaria mundial, en el medio ambiente o en la reducción de la pobreza rural en países en desarrollo. Esta tesis aplica un marco integrado para analizar varios impactos relacionados con la transformación de los mercados agrícolas y los mercados rurales debidos a la globalización y, en particular, al progresivo aumento del comercio internacional. En concreto, la tesis aborda los siguientes temas: En primer lugar, la producción mundial de alimentos tendrá que aumentar considerablemente para poder satisfacer la demanda de una población mundial de 9000 millones personas en 2050, lo cual plantea grandes desafíos sobre los sistemas de la producción de alimentos. Alcanzar este logro, sin comprometer la integridad del medio ambiente en regiones exportadoras, es un reto aún mayor. En este contexto, la tesis analiza los efectos de la liberalización del comercio mundial, considerando distintas tecnologías de producción agraria, sobre unos indicadores de seguridad alimentaria en diferentes regiones del mundo y sobre distintos indicadores ambientales, teniendo en cuenta escalas diferentes en América Latina y el Caribe. La tesis utiliza el modelo “International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT)” – un modelo dinámico de equilibrio parcial del sector agrícola a escala global – para modelar la apertura de los mercados agrícolas así como diferentes escenarios de la producción hasta el año 2050. Los resultados del modelo están vinculados a modelos biofísicos para poder evaluar los cambios en la huella hídrica y la calidad del agua, así como para cuantificar los impactos del cambio en el uso del suelo sobre la biodiversidad y los stocks de carbono en 2050. Los resultados indican que la apertura de los mercados agrícolas es muy importante para mejorar la seguridad alimentaria a nivel mundial, sin embargo, produce también presiones ambientales indeseables en algunas regiones de América Latina. Contrastando dos escenarios que consideran distintas modos de producción, la expansión de la tierra agrícola frente a un escenario de la producción más intensiva, se demuestra que las mejoras de productividad son generalmente superiores a la expansión de las tierras agrícolas, desde un punto de vista económico e ambiental. En cambio, los escenarios de intensificación sostenible no sólo hacen posible una mayor producción de alimentos, sino que también generan menos impactos medioambientales que los otros escenarios futuros en todas sus dimensiones: biodiversidad, carbono, emisiones de nitratos y uso del agua. El análisis muestra que hay un “trade-off” entre el objetivo de alcanzar la sostenibilidad ambiental y el objetivo de la seguridad alimentaria, independiente del manejo agrícola en el futuro. En segundo lugar, a la luz de la reciente crisis de los precios de alimentos en los años 2007/08, la tesis analiza los impactos de la apertura de los mercados agrícolas en la transmisión de precios de los alimentos en seis países de América Latina: Argentina, Brasil, Chile, Colombia, México y el Perú. Para identificar las posibles relaciones de cointegración entre los índices de precios al consumidor de alimentos y los índices de precios de agrarios internacionales, sujetos a diferentes grados de apertura de mercados agrícolas en los seis países de América Latina, se utiliza un modelo simple de corrección de error (single equation error correction). Los resultados indican que la integración global de los mercados agrícolas ha dado lugar a diferentes tasas de transmisión de precios en los países investigados. Sobre todo en el corto plazo, las tasas de transmisión dependen del grado de apertura comercial, mientras que en el largo plazo las tasas de transmisión son elevadas, pero en gran medida independientes del régimen de comercio. Por lo tanto, durante un período de shocks de precios mundiales una mayor apertura del comercio trae consigo más inestabilidad de los precios domésticos a corto plazo y la resultante persistencia en el largo plazo. Sin embargo, estos resultados no verifican necesariamente la utilidad de las políticas comerciales, aplicadas frecuentemente por los gobiernos para amortiguar los shocks de precios. Primero, porque existe un riesgo considerable de volatilidad de los precios debido a cambios bruscos de la oferta nacional si se promueve la autosuficiencia en el país; y segundo, la política de proteccionismo asume el riesgo de excluir el país de participar en las cadenas de suministro de alto valor del sector agrícola, y por lo tanto esa política podría obstaculizar el desarrollo económico. Sin embargo, es indispensable establecer políticas efectivas para reducir la vulnerabilidad de los hogares a los aumentos repentinos de precios de alimentos, lo cual requiere una planificación gubernamental precisa con el presupuesto requerido disponible. En tercer lugar, la globalización afecta a la estructura de una economía y, por medios distintos, la distribución de los ingreso en un país. Perú sirve como ejemplo para investigar más profundamente las cuestiones relacionadas con los cambios en la distribución de los ingresos en zonas rurales. Perú, que es un país que está cada vez más integrado en los mercados mundiales, consiguió importantes descensos en la pobreza extrema en sus zonas rurales, pero a la vez adolece de alta incidencia de pobreza moderada y de desigualdad de los ingresos en zonas rural al menos durante el periodo comprendido entre 2004 y 2012. Esta parte de la tesis tiene como objetivo identificar las fuerzas impulsoras detrás de estas dinámicas en el Perú mediante el uso de un modelo de microsimulación basado en modelos de generación de ingresos aplicado a nivel los hogares rurales. Los resultados indican que la fuerza principal detrás de la reducción de la pobreza ha sido el crecimiento económico general de la economía, debido a las condiciones macroeconómicas favorables durante el periodo de estudio. Estos efectos de crecimiento beneficiaron a casi todos los sectores rurales, y dieron lugar a la disminución de la pobreza rural extrema, especialmente entre los agricultores de papas y de maíz. En parte, estos agricultores probablemente se beneficiaron de la apertura de los mercados agrícolas, que es lo que podría haber provocado un aumento de los precios al productor en tiempos de altos precios mundiales de los alimentos. Sin embargo, los resultados también sugieren que para una gran parte de la población más pobre existían barreras de entrada a la hora de poder participar en el empleo asalariado fuera de la agricultura o en la producción de cultivos de alto valor. Esto podría explicarse por la falta de acceso a unos activos importantes: por ejemplo, el nivel de educación de los pobres era apenas mejor en 2012 que en 2004; y también las dotaciones de tierra y de mano de obra, sobre todo de los productores pobres de maíz y patata, disminuyeron entre 2004 y 2012. Esto lleva a la conclusión de que aún hay margen para aplicar políticas para facilitar el acceso a estos activos, que podría contribuir a la erradicación de la pobreza rural. La tesis concluye que el comercio agrícola puede ser un importante medio para abastecer una población mundial creciente y más rica con una cantidad suficiente de calorías. Para evitar adversos efectos ambientales e impactos negativos para los consumidores y de los productores pobres, el enfoque debe centrarse en las mejoras de la productividad agrícola, teniendo en cuenta los límites ambientales y ser socialmente inclusivo. En este sentido, será indispensable seguir desarrollando soluciones tecnológicas que garanticen prácticas de producción agrícola minimizando el uso de recursos naturales. Además, para los pequeños pobres agricultores será fundamental eliminar las barreras de entrada a los mercados de exportación que podría tener efectos indirectos favorables a través de la adopción de nuevas tecnologías alcanzables a través de mercados internacionales. ABSTRACT The world is in a state of rapid transition. Ongoing globalization, population growth, rising living standards and increasing urbanization, accompanied by changing dietary patterns throughout the world, are increasing the demand for food. Together with more open trade regimes, this has triggered growing international agricultural trade during the last decade. For many Latin American countries, which are gifted with relative natural resource abundance, these trends have fueled rapid export growth of primary goods. In just 30 years, the Latin American agricultural market share has almost doubled from 10% in 1980 to 18% in 2010. These market developments have given rise to a debate around a number of crucial issues related to the role of agricultural trade for global food security, for the environment or for poverty reduction in developing countries. This thesis uses an integrated framework to analyze a broad array of possible impacts related to transforming agricultural and rural markets in light of globalization, and in particular of increasing trade activity. Specifically, the following issues are approached: First, global food production will have to rise substantially by the year 2050 to meet effective demand of a nine billion people world population which poses major challenges to food production systems. Doing so without compromising environmental integrity in exporting regions is an even greater challenge. In this context, the thesis explores the effects of future global trade liberalization on food security indicators in different world regions and on a variety of environmental indicators at different scales in Latin America and the Caribbean, in due consideration of different future agricultural production practices. The International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) –a global dynamic partial equilibrium model of the agricultural sector developed by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)– is applied to run different future production scenarios, and agricultural trade regimes out to 2050. Model results are linked to biophysical models, used to assess changes in water footprints and water quality, as well as impacts on biodiversity and carbon stocks from land use change by 2050. Results indicate that further trade liberalization is crucial for improving food security globally, but that it would also lead to more environmental pressures in some regions across Latin America. Contrasting land expansion versus more intensified agriculture shows that productivity improvements are generally superior to agricultural land expansion, from an economic and environmental point of view. Most promising for achieving food security and environmental goals, in equal measure, is the sustainable intensification scenario. However, the analysis shows that there are trade-offs between environmental and food security goals for all agricultural development paths. Second, in light of the recent food price crisis of 2007/08, the thesis looks at the impacts of increasing agricultural market integration on food price transmission from global to domestic markets in six Latin American countries, namely Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru. To identify possible cointegrating relationships between the domestic food consumer price indices and world food price levels, subject to different degrees of agricultural market integration in the six Latin American countries, a single equation error correction model is used. Results suggest that global agricultural market integration has led to different levels of price path-through in the studied countries. Especially in the short-run, transmission rates depend on the degree of trade openness, while in the long-run transmission rates are high, but largely independent of the country-specific trade regime. Hence, under world price shocks more trade openness brings with it more price instability in the short-term and the resulting persistence in the long-term. However, these findings do not necessarily verify the usefulness of trade policies, often applied by governments to buffer such price shocks. First, because there is a considerable risk of price volatility due to domestic supply shocks if self-sufficiency is promoted. Second, protectionism bears the risk of excluding a country from participating in beneficial high-value agricultural supply chains, thereby hampering economic development. Nevertheless, to reduce households’ vulnerability to sudden and large increases of food prices, effective policies to buffer food price shocks should be put in place, but must be carefully planned with the required budget readily available. Third, globalization affects the structure of an economy and, by different means, the distribution of income in a country. Peru serves as an example to dive deeper into questions related to changes in the income distribution in rural areas. Peru, a country being increasingly integrated into global food markets, experienced large drops in extreme rural poverty, but persistently high rates of moderate rural poverty and rural income inequality between 2004 and 2012. The thesis aims at disentangling the driving forces behind these dynamics by using a microsimulation model based on rural household income generation models. Results provide evidence that the main force behind poverty reduction was overall economic growth of the economy due to generally favorable macroeconomic market conditions. These growth effects benefited almost all rural sectors, and led to declines in extreme rural poverty, especially among potato and maize farmers. In part, these farmers probably benefited from policy changes towards more open trade regimes and the resulting higher producer prices in times of elevated global food price levels. However, the results also suggest that entry barriers existed for the poorer part of the population to participate in well-paid wage-employment outside of agriculture or in high-value crop production. This could be explained by a lack of sufficient access to important rural assets. For example, poor people’s educational attainment was hardly better in 2012 than in 2004. Also land and labor endowments, especially of (poor) maize and potato growers, rather decreased than increased over time. This leads to the conclusion that there is still scope for policy action to facilitate access to these assets, which could contribute to the eradication of rural poverty. The thesis concludes that agricultural trade can be one important means to provide a growing and richer world population with sufficient amounts of calories. To avoid adverse environmental effects and negative impacts for poor food consumers and producers, the focus should lie on agricultural productivity improvements, considering environmental limits and be socially inclusive. In this sense, it will be crucial to further develop technological solutions that guarantee resource-sparing agricultural production practices, and to remove entry barriers for small poor farmers to export markets which might allow for technological spill-over effects from high-value global agricultural supply chains.

DNA double-strand break repair proteins are required to cap the ends of mammalian chromosomes

Recent findings intriguingly place DNA double-strand break repair proteins at chromosome ends in yeast, where they help maintain normal telomere length and structure. In the present study, an essential telomere function, the ability to cap and thereby protect chromosomes from end-to-end fusions, was assessed in repair-deficient mouse cell lines. By using fluorescence in situ hybridization with a probe to telomeric DNA, spontaneously occurring chromosome aberrations were examined for telomere signal at the points of fusion, a clear indication of impaired end-capping. Telomeric fusions were not observed in any of the repair-proficient controls and occurred only rarely in a p53 null mutant. In striking contrast, chromosomal end fusions that retained telomeric sequence were observed in nontransformed DNA-PKcs-deficient cells, where they were a major source of chromosomal instability. Metacentric chromosomes created by telomeric fusion became even more abundant in these cells after spontaneous immortalization. Restoration of repair proficiency through transfection with a functional cDNA copy of the human DNA-PKcs gene reduced the number of fusions compared with a negative transfection control. Virally transformed cells derived from Ku70 and Ku80 knockout mice also displayed end-to-end fusions. These studies demonstrate that DNA double-strand break repair genes play a dual role in maintaining chromosomal stability in mammalian cells, the known role in repairing incidental DNA damage, as well as a new protective role in telomeric end-capping.

Translation initiation of ornithine decarboxylase and nucleocytoplasmic transport of cyclin D1 mRNA are increased in cells overexpressing eukaryotic initiation factor 4E.

The structure of m7GpppN (where N is any nucleotide), termed cap, is present at the 5' end of all eukaryotic cellular mRNAs (except organellar). The eukaryotic initiation factor 4E (eIF-4E) binds to the cap and facilitates the formation of translation initiation complexes. eIF-4E is implicated in control of cell growth, as its overexpression causes malignant transformation of rodent cells and deregulates HeLa cell growth. It was suggested that overexpression of eIF-4E results in the enhanced translation of poorly translated mRNAs that encode growth-promoting proteins. Indeed, enhanced expression of several proteins, including cyclin D1 and ornithine decarboxylase (ODC), was documented in eIF-4E-overexpressing NTH 3T3 cells. However, the mechanism underlying this increase has not been elucidated. Here, we studied the mode by which eIF-4E increases the expression of cyclin D1 and ODC. We show that the increase in the amount of cyclin D1 and ODC is directly proportional to the degree of eIF-4E overexpression. Two mechanisms, which are not mutually exclusive, are responsible for the increase. In eIF-4E-overexpressing cells the rate of translation initiation of ODC mRNA was increased inasmuch as the mRNA sedimented with heavier polysomes. For cyclin D1 mRNA, translation initiation was not increased, but rather its amount in the cytoplasm increased, without a significant increase in total mRNA. Whereas, in the parental NIH 3T3 cell line, a large proportion of the cyclin D1 mRNA was confined to the nucleus, in eIF-4E-overexpressing cells the vast majority of the mRNA was present in the cytoplasm. These results indicate that eIF-4E affects directly or indirectly mRNA nucleocytoplasmic transport, in addition to its role in translation initiation.

Joint interpretation of magnetotelluric, seismic, and well-log data in Hontomín (Spain)

Acknowledgements. This work is dedicated to the memory of Andrés Pérez-Estaún, brilliant scientist, colleague, and friend. The authors sincerely thank Ian Ferguson and an anonymous reviewer for their useful comments on the manuscript. Xènia Ogaya is currently supported in the Dublin Institute for Advanced Studies by a Science Foundation Ireland grant IRECCSEM (SFI grant 12/IP/1313). Juan Alcalde is funded by NERC grant NE/M007251/1, on interpretational uncertainty. Juanjo Ledo, Pilar Queralt and Alex Marcuello thank Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad and EU Feder Funds through grant CGL2014- 54118-C2-1-R. Funding for this Project has been partially provided by the Spanish Ministry of Industry, Tourism and Trade, through the CIUDEN-CSIC-Inst. Jaume Almera agreement (ALM-09-027: Characterization, Development and Validation of Seismic Techniques applied to CO2 Geological Storage Sites), the CIUDEN-Fundació Bosch i Gimpera agreement (ALM-09-009 Development and Adaptation of Electromagnetic techniques: Characterisation of Storage Sites) and the project PIERCO2 (Progress In Electromagnetic Research for CO2 geological reservoirs CGL2009-07604). The CIUDEN project is co-financed by the European Union through the Technological Development Plant of Compostilla OXYCFB300 Project (European Energy Programme for Recovery).

Local community perception towards bats (Mammalia: Chiroptera) in Caves in South central Mindanao, Philippines: Threats and Implication for conservation

In the tropics, bats are an essential component of many native ecosystems, through providing various ecological services including pollination and insect pest control, in addition to seed dispersal. Many Philippine bat species roost in caves and underground habitats. However, many caves are disturbed by people, to exploit resources for food, recreation, and mineral and guano extraction. The misunderstanding of the importance of bats to the ecosystem is also considered a threat to many cave roosting species. Understanding the conflicts between humans and ecosystems which provide essential services is important to maintain ecosystem service provision. A total of 100 local respondents from the village of Pisan, Kabacan North Cotabato in south central Mindanao were interviewed through semi-structured interviews and focus group discussions. Respondents were asked about their views, levels of knowledge, use, interaction, and awareness towards both the caves and bats in their locality. Our survey found that most of the respondents are aware of the presence of bats from the caves in their locality. Unfortunately, a large proportion of the respondents noted that bats are hunted in caves for bush meat and trade, and most people perceived bats as pest to fruit crops such as durian. These factors are among the main factors of the execution of many bat colonies in caves of south central Mindanao. In general, cave bats are under appreciated species in caves. The unregulated tourism, hunting for bush meat and trade, and guano extraction are among the alarming threats occurring for both caves and bats in the locality and possibly to other localities in the country. Furthermore, the establishment of strong and effective model conservation education programs and the strengthening the participation of local government, academic, and community are essential steps to preserve the current state of cave bats in the area.

Scenarios for the Agricultural Sector in the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean. MEDPRO Report No. 4, March 2013

The paper builds predictive scenarios for the agricultural sector of eleven southern and eastern Mediterranean countries (SEMCs), namely Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Palestine, Syria, Tunisia and Turkey. First, it assesses the performance trends of the SEMCs’ agricultural sector, with a focus on production, consumption and trade patterns, incentives, trade protection policies and trade relations with the EU, productivity dynamics and their determinants. Second, it presents four scenarios based on the main value chains of the SEMCs’ agriculture sector: animal products, fruit and vegetables, sugar and edible oils, cereals, fish and other sea products. The four scenarios are: business as usual, Mediterranean – one global player, the EU-Mediterranean area under threat and the EU and SEMCs as regional players on the global stage.

Will improved access to capital dampen the need for more agricultural land? A CGE analysis of agricultural capital markets and world-wide biofuel policies. Factor Markets Working Paper No. 48, May 2013

This paper analyses the consequences of enhanced biofuel production in regions and countries of the world that have announced plans to implement or expand on biofuel policies. The analysis considers biofuel policies implemented as binding blending targets for transportation fuels. The chosen quantitative modelling approach is two-fold: it combines the analysis of biofuel policies in a multi-sectoral economic model (MAGNET) with systematic variation of the functioning of capital and labour markets. This paper adds to existing research by considering biofuel policies in the EU, the US and various other countries with considerable agricultural production and trade, such as Brazil, India and China. Moreover, the application multi-sectoral modelling system with different assumptions on the mobility of factor markets allows for the observation of changes in economic indicators under different conditions of how factor markets work. Systematic variation of factor mobility indicates that the ‘burden’ of global biofuel policies is not equally distributed across different factors within agricultural production. Agricultural land, as the pre-dominant and sector-specific factor, is, regardless of different degrees of inter-sectoral or intra-sectoral factor mobility, the most important factor limiting the expansion of agricultural production. More capital and higher employment in agriculture will ease the pressure on additional land use – but only partly. To expand agricultural production at global scale requires both land and mobile factors adapted to increase total factor productivity in agriculture in the most efficient way.

Assessment of Socio-Economic and Climate Change Effects on Water Resources and Agriculture in Southern and Eastern Mediterranean countries. MEDPRO Technical Paper No. 28/March 2013

This study aims at assessing the socio-economic and environmental effects of different societal and human development scenarios and climate change in the water-scarce southern and eastern Mediterranean. The study develops a two-stage modelling methodology that includes an econometric analysis for the southern and eastern Mediterranean region as a whole and a detailed, integrated socioecological assessment focusing on Jordan, Syria and Morocco. The results show that water resources will be under increasing stress in future years. In spite of country differences, a future path of sustainable development is possible in the region. Water withdrawals could decrease, preserving renewable water resources and reversing the negative effects on agricultural production and rural society. This, however, requires a combination across the region of technical, managerial, economic, social and institutional changes that together foster a substantive structural change. A balanced implementation of water supply-enhancing and demand-management measures along with improved governance are key to attaining a cost-effective sustainable future in which economic growth, a population increase and trade expansion are compatible with the conservation of water resources.

Trade policy in a dynamic Heckscher-Ohlin model

The Import Substitution Process in Latin Amer ica was an attempt to enhance GDP growth and productivity by rising trade barriers upon capital-intensive products. Our main goal is to analyze how an increase in import tariff on a particular type of good affects the production choices and trade pattern of an economy. We develop an extension of the dynamic Heckscher-Ohlin model – a combination of a static two goods, two-factor Heckscher-Ohlin model and a two-sector growth model – allowing for import tariff. We then calibrate the closed economy model to the US. The results show that the economy will produce less of both consumption and investment goods under autarky for low and high levels of capital stock per worker. We also find that total GDP may be lower under free trade in comparison to autarky.

Calcium carbonate contents and oxygen and carbon isotopic compositions of planktic and benthic foraminifera in sediments at DSDP Site 85-575

Data on the composition of benthic foraminiferal faunas at Deep Sea Drilling Project Site 575 in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean were combined with benthic and planktonic carbon- and oxygen-isotope records and CaCO3 data. Changes in the composition of the benthic foraminiferal faunas at Site 575 predated the middle Miocene period of growth of the Antarctic ice cap and cooling of the deep ocean waters by about 2 m.y., and thus were not caused by this cooling (as has been proposed). The benthic faunal changes may have been caused by increased variability in corrosivity of the bottom waters, possibly resulting from enhanced productivity in the surface waters.