On the quantitative importance of wage bargaining models

Four general equilibrium search models are compared quantitatively. Thebaseline framework is a calibrated macroeconomic model of the US economydesigned for a welfare analysis of unemployment insurance policy. Theother models make three simple and natural specification changes,regarding tax incidence, monopsony power in wage determination, and therelevant threat point. These specification changes have a major impacton the equilibrium and on the welfare implications of unemploymentinsurance, partly because search externalities magnify the effects ofwage changes. The optimal level of unemployment insurance dependsstrongly on whether raising benefits has a larger impact on searcheffort or on hiring expenditure.

North-South convergence and the allocation of CO2 emissions

We postulate a two-region world, comprised of North (calibrated after the US) and South(calibrated after China). Our optimization results show the compatibility of the following threedesiderata:(1) Global CO2 emissions follow a conservative path that leads to the stabilizationof concentrations at 450 ppm.(2) North and South converge to a path of sustained growth at 1% per year (28.2%per generation) in 2075.(3) During the transition to the steady state, North also grows at 1% per year whileSouth s rates of growth are markedly higher.The transition paths require a drastic reduction of the share of emissions allocated to North,large investments in knowledge, both in North and South, as well as very large investments ineducation in South. Surprisingly, in order to sustain North s utility growth rate, some output mustbe transferred from South to North during the transition.Although undoubtedly subject to many caveats, our results support a degree of optimism byproviding prima facie evidence of the possibility of tackling climate change in a way that is fairboth across generations and across regions while allowing for positive rates of humandevelopment.

Automated quantitative pupillometry for the prognostication of coma after cardiac arrest.

BACKGROUND: Sedation and therapeutic hypothermia (TH) delay neurological responses and might reduce the accuracy of clinical examination to predict outcome after cardiac arrest (CA). We examined the accuracy of quantitative pupillary light reactivity (PLR), using an automated infrared pupillometry, to predict outcome of post-CA coma in comparison to standard PLR, EEG, and somato-sensory evoked potentials (SSEP). METHODS: We prospectively studied over a 1-year period (June 2012-June 2013) 50 consecutive comatose CA patients treated with TH (33 °C, 24 h). Quantitative PLR (expressed as the % of pupillary response to a calibrated light stimulus) and standard PLR were measured at day 1 (TH and sedation; on average 16 h after CA) and day 2 (normothermia, off sedation: on average 46 h after CA). Neurological outcome was assessed at 90 days with Cerebral Performance Categories (CPC), dichotomized as good (CPC 1-2) versus poor (CPC 3-5). Predictive performance was analyzed using area under the ROC curves (AUC). RESULTS: Patients with good outcome [n = 23 (46 %)] had higher quantitative PLR than those with poor outcome [n = 27; 16 (range 9-23) vs. 10 (1-30) % at day 1, and 20 (13-39) vs. 11 (1-55) % at day 2, both p < 0.001]. Best cut-off for outcome prediction of quantitative PLR was <13 %. The AUC to predict poor outcome was higher for quantitative than for standard PLR at both time points (day 1, 0.79 vs. 0.56, p = 0.005; day 2, 0.81 vs. 0.64, p = 0.006). Prognostic accuracy of quantitative PLR was comparable to that of EEG and SSEP (0.81 vs. 0.80 and 0.73, respectively, both p > 0.20). CONCLUSIONS: Quantitative PLR is more accurate than standard PLR in predicting outcome of post-anoxic coma, irrespective of temperature and sedation, and has comparable prognostic accuracy than EEG and SSEP.

Unemployment insurance with endogenous search intensity and precautionary saving

A welfare analysis of unemployment insurance (UI) is performed in a generalequilibrium job search model. Finitely-lived, risk-averse workers smooth consumption over time by accumulating assets, choose search effort whenunemployed, and suffer disutility from work. Firms hire workers, purchasecapital, and pay taxes to finance worker benefits; their equity is the assetaccumulated by workers. A matching function relates unemployment, hiringexpenditure, and search effort to the formation of jobs. The model is calibrated to US data; the parameters relating job search effort to the probability of job finding are chosen to match microeconomic studies ofunemployment spells. Under logarithmic utility, numerical simulation shows rather small welfaregains from UI. Even without UI, workers smooth consumption effectivelythrough asset accumulation. Greater risk aversion leads to substantiallylarger welfare gains from UI; however, even in this case much of its welfareimpact is due not to consumption smoothing effects, but rather to decreased work disutility, or to a variety of externalities.

Will EMU increase eurosclerosis?

In this paper we study the relationship between labor market institutions and monetary policy. We use a simple macroeconomic framework to show how optimal monetary policy rules depend on labor institutions (labor adjustment costs, and nominal and real wage rigitidy) and social preferences regarding inflation, employment, and real wages. We also calibrate our model tocompute how the change in social welfare brought about by giving up monetary policy as a result of joining the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) depends on institutions and preferences. We then use the calibrated model to analyze how EMU affects the incentives for labor market reform, both for reformsthat increase the economy's adjustment potential and for those that affect the long-run unemployment rate.

Perceptual and semantic contributions to repetition priming of environmental sounds.

Repetition of environmental sounds, like their visual counterparts, can facilitate behavior and modulate neural responses, exemplifying plasticity in how auditory objects are represented or accessed. It remains controversial whether such repetition priming/suppression involves solely plasticity based on acoustic features and/or also access to semantic features. To evaluate contributions of physical and semantic features in eliciting repetition-induced plasticity, the present functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) study repeated either identical or different exemplars of the initially presented object; reasoning that identical exemplars share both physical and semantic features, whereas different exemplars share only semantic features. Participants performed a living/man-made categorization task while being scanned at 3T. Repeated stimuli of both types significantly facilitated reaction times versus initial presentations, demonstrating perceptual and semantic repetition priming. There was also repetition suppression of fMRI activity within overlapping temporal, premotor, and prefrontal regions of the auditory "what" pathway. Importantly, the magnitude of suppression effects was equivalent for both physically identical and semantically related exemplars. That the degree of repetition suppression was irrespective of whether or not both perceptual and semantic information was repeated is suggestive of a degree of acoustically independent semantic analysis in how object representations are maintained and retrieved.

A dynamic analysis of human welfare in a warming planet

Climate science indicates that climate stabilization requires low GHG emissions. Is thisconsistent with nondecreasing human welfare?Our welfare or utility index emphasizes education, knowledge, and the environment. Weconstruct and calibrate a multigenerational model with intertemporal links provided by education,physical capital, knowledge and the environment.We reject discounted utilitarianism and adopt, first, the Pure Sustainability Optimization (orIntergenerational Maximin) criterion, and, second, the Sustainable Growth Optimization criterion,that maximizes the utility of the first generation subject to a given future rate of growth. We applythese criteria to our calibrated model via a novel algorithm inspired by the turnpike property.The computed paths yield levels of utility higher than the level at reference year 2000 for allgenerations. They require the doubling of the fraction of labor resources devoted to the creation ofknowledge relative to the reference level, whereas the fractions of labor allocated to consumptionand leisure are similar to the reference ones. On the other hand, higher growth rates requiresubstantial increases in the fraction of labor devoted to education, together with moderate increasesin the fractions of labor devoted to knowledge and the investment in physical capital.

Sampling and TDR probe insertion in the determination of the volumetric soil water content

Volumetric soil water content (theta) can be evaluated in the field by direct or indirect methods. Among the direct, the gravimetric method is regarded as highly reliable and thus often preferred. Its main disadvantages are that sampling and laboratory procedures are labor intensive, and that the method is destructive, which makes resampling of a same point impossible. Recently, the time domain reflectometry (TDR) technique has become a widely used indirect, non-destructive method to evaluate theta. In this study, evaluations of the apparent dielectric number of soils (epsilon) and samplings for the gravimetrical determination of the volumetric soil water content (thetaGrav) were carried out at four sites of a Xanthic Ferralsol in Manaus - Brazil. With the obtained epsilon values, theta was estimated using empirical equations (thetaTDR), and compared with thetaGrav derived from disturbed and undisturbed samples. The main objective of this study was the comparison of thetaTDR estimates of horizontally as well as vertically inserted probes with the thetaGrav values determined by disturbed and undisturbed samples. Results showed that thetaTDR estimates of vertically inserted probes and the average of horizontally measured layers were only slightly and insignificantly different. However, significant differences were found between the thetaTDR estimates of different equations and between disturbed and undisturbed samples in the thetaGrav determinations. The use of the theoretical Knight et al. model, which permits an evaluation of the soil volume assessed by TDR probes, is also discussed. It was concluded that the TDR technique, when properly calibrated, permits in situ, nondestructive measurements of q in Xanthic Ferralsols of similar accuracy as the gravimetric method.

Single Subject Finger Somatotopy Mapping at 7T.

Introduction: The primary somatosensory cortex (SI) contains Brodmann areas (BA) 1, 2, 3a, and 3b. Research in non-human primates showed that BAs 3b, 1, and 2 each contain one full representation of the hand with separate representations for each finger. This research also showed that the finger representation in BA3b has larger and clearer finger somatotopy than BA1 and 2. Although several efforts to map finger somatotopy in SI by fMRI have been made at 1.5 and 3T these studies have yielded variable results and were not able to detect single subject finger somatotopy, probably due to the limited spatial extent of the cortical areas representing a digit (close to the resolution in most fMRI experiments), complications due to acquisition of consistent maps for individual subjects (Schweizer et al 2008), or inter-individual variability in sulcal anatomy impeding group studies. Here, we used 7T fMRI to investigate finger somatotopy in SI, some of its functional characteristics, and its reproducibility. Methods: Eight right-handed male subjects were scanned on a 7T scanner (Siemens Medical, Germany) with an 8-channel Tx/Rx rf-coil (Rapid Biomedical, Germany). 1.3x1.3x1.3mm3 resolution fMRI data were acquired using a sinusoidal readout EPI sequence (Speck et al, 2008) and FOV=210mm, TE/TR=27ms/2.5s, GRAPPA=2. Each volume contained 28 transverse slices covering SI. A single EPI volume with 64 slices was acquired to aid coregistration. 1x1x1mm3 anatomical data were acquire using the MP2RAGE sequence (Marques et al, 2009; TE/TR/TI1,2/TRmprage=2.63ms/7.2ms/0.9,3.2s/5s). Subjects were positioned supine in the scanner with their right arm comfortably against the magnet bore. An experimenter was positioned at the entrance of the bore where he could easily reach and stroke successively the two distal phalanxes of each digit. The order of stroked digit was D1 (thumb)-D3-D5-D2-D4, with 20s ON, 10s OFF alternated. This sequence was repeated four times per run and two functional runs were acquired per subject. Realignment, smoothing (FWHM 2 mm), coregistration of the anatomical to the fMRI data and calculation of t-statistics were done using SPM8. An SI mask was obtained via an F-contrast (p<0.001) over all digits. Within the mask, voxels were labeled with the number of the digit demonstrating the highest t-value for that particular voxel. Results: For all subjects, areas corresponding to the five digits were identified in contralateral SI. BA3b showed the most consistent somatotopic finger representation (see an example in Fig.1). The five digits were localized in a consecutive order in the cortex, with D1 most anterior, inferior and distal and D5, most posterior, superior and medial (mean distance between centres of mass of digit representations ±stderr: 4.2±0.7mm; see Fig. 2). The analysis of average beta values within each finger representation region revealed the specificity of the somatotopic region to the tactile input for each tested finger (except digit 4 and 5). Five of these subjects also presented an orderly and consecutive representation of the five digits in BA1 and 2. Conclusions: Our data reveal that the increased BOLD sensitivity at 7T and the high spatial resolution used in this study allow consistent somatotopic mapping using human touch as a stimulus and that human SI contains at least three separate regions that contain five separate representations of all single contralateral fingers. Moreover, adjacent fingers were represented at adjacent cortical regions across the three SI regions. The spatial organization of SI as reflected in individual subject topography corresponds well with previous electrophysiological data in non-human primates. The small distance between digit representations highlights the need for the high spatial resolution available at 7T.

Period-Luminosity-Colour distribution and classification of Galactic oxygen-rich LPVs I. Luminosity calibrations

The absolute K magnitudes and kinematic parameters of about 350 oxygen-rich Long-Period Variable stars are calibrated, by means of an up-to-date maximum-likelihood method, using HIPPARCOS parallaxes and proper motions together with radial velocities and, as additional data, periods and V-K colour indices. Four groups, differing by their kinematics and mean magnitudes, are found. For each of them, we also obtain the distributions of magnitude, period and de-reddened colour of the base population, as well as de-biased period-luminosity-colour relations and their two-dimensional projections. The SRa semiregulars do not seem to constitute a separate class of LPVs. The SRb appear to belong to two populations of different ages. In a PL diagram, they constitute two evolutionary sequences towards the Mira stage. The Miras of the disk appear to pulsate on a lower-order mode. The slopes of their de-biased PL and PC relations are found to be very different from the ones of the Oxygen Miras of the LMC. This suggests that a significant number of so-called Miras of the LMC are misclassified. This also suggests that the Miras of the LMC do not constitute a homogeneous group, but include a significant proportion of metal-deficient stars, suggesting a relatively smooth star formation history. As a consequence, one may not trivially transpose the LMC period-luminosity relation from one galaxy to the other.

Calibration of high-resolution geophysical data with tracer test measurements to improve hydrological predictions

Relationships between porosity and hydraulic conductivity tend to be strongly scale- and site-dependent and are thus very difficult to establish. As a result, hydraulic conductivity distributions inferred from geophysically derived porosity models must be calibrated using some measurement of aquifer response. This type of calibration is potentially very valuable as it may allow for transport predictions within the considered hydrological unit at locations where only geophysical measurements are available, thus reducing the number of well tests required and thereby the costs of management and remediation. Here, we explore this concept through a series of numerical experiments. Considering the case of porosity characterization in saturated heterogeneous aquifers using crosshole ground-penetrating radar and borehole porosity log data, we use tracer test measurements to calibrate a relationship between porosity and hydraulic conductivity that allows the best prediction of the observed hydrological behavior. To examine the validity and effectiveness of the obtained relationship, we examine its performance at alternate locations not used in the calibration procedure. Our results indicate that this methodology allows us to obtain remarkably reliable hydrological predictions throughout the considered hydrological unit based on the geophysical data only. This was also found to be the case when significant uncertainty was considered in the underlying relationship between porosity and hydraulic conductivity.

Applicability of a distributed watershed pollution model in a data-poor environment in Santa Catarina State, Brazil

Intensification of agricultural production without a sound management and regulations can lead to severe environmental problems, as in Western Santa Catarina State, Brazil, where intensive swine production has caused large accumulations of manure and consequently water pollution. Natural resource scientists are asked by decision-makers for advice on management and regulatory decisions. Distributed environmental models are useful tools, since they can be used to explore consequences of various management practices. However, in many areas of the world, quantitative data for model calibration and validation are lacking. The data-intensive distributed environmental model AgNPS was applied in a data-poor environment, the upper catchment (2,520 ha) of the Ariranhazinho River, near the city of Seara, in Santa Catarina State. Steps included data preparation, cell size selection, sensitivity analysis, model calibration and application to different management scenarios. The model was calibrated based on a best guess for model parameters and on a pragmatic sensitivity analysis. The parameters were adjusted to match model outputs (runoff volume, peak runoff rate and sediment concentration) closely with the sparse observed data. A modelling grid cell resolution of 150 m adduced appropriate and computer-fit results. The rainfall runoff response of the AgNPS model was calibrated using three separate rainfall ranges (< 25, 25-60, > 60 mm). Predicted sediment concentrations were consistently six to ten times higher than observed, probably due to sediment trapping along vegetated channel banks. Predicted N and P concentrations in stream water ranged from just below to well above regulatory norms. Expert knowledge of the area, in addition to experience reported in the literature, was able to compensate in part for limited calibration data. Several scenarios (actual, recommended and excessive manure applications, and point source pollution from swine operations) could be compared by the model, using a relative ranking rather than quantitative predictions.

Two-stage prograde and retrograde Variscan metamorphism of glaucophane-eclogites, blueschists and greenschists from Ile de Groix (Brittany, France)

On Ile de Groix, Variscan metamorphic former tholeiitic and alkaline basalts occur as glaucophane-eclogites, blueschists and greenschists in isolated lenses and layers within metapelites. Whole-rock delta O-18(SMOW) values of the metabasites show limited variations (10.4-12.0 parts per thousand) and no systematic differences among rock types and metamorphic grades. This provides no argument for large-scale blueschist-to-greenschist transformation driven by infiltration of externally derived fluids. Metamorphic mineralogical changes should have been triggered by internal fluids. Element variations in interlayered blue- and greenschists can be attributed to magmatic fractionation. Assemblages with garnet, clinopyroxene and glaucophane of a high-pressure/low-temperature (HP-LT) metamorphism M1, and NaCa-amphiboles (barroisite, magnesiohornblende, actinolite) of a medium-pressure/medium-temperature metamorphism M2 crystallized during deformation Dl. Detailed core-rim zonation profiles display increasing and then decreasing Al-IV in glaucophane of M1. NaCa-amphiboles of M2, mantling glaucophane and crystallized in porphyroblasts, show first increasing, then decreasing, Al-IV and Al-IV. Empirically calibrated thermobarometers allowed P-T path reconstructions. In glaucophane-eclogites of a metamorphic zone I, a prograde evolution to M1 peak conditions at 400-500 degreesC/10-12 kbar was followed by a retrograde P-T path within the glaucophane stability field. The subsequent M2 evolution was again prograde up to > 600 degreesC at 8 kbar and then retrograde. Similarly, in metamorphic zones II and III, prograde and retrograde paths of MI and M2 at lower maximal temperatures and pressures exist. The almost complete metamorphic cycle during M2 signalizes that the HP-LT rocks escaped from an early erosion by a moderate second burial event and explains the longlasting slow uplift with low average cooling rates.

Resting-state temporal synchronization networks emerge from connectivity topology and heterogeneity.

Spatial patterns of coherent activity across different brain areas have been identified during the resting-state fluctuations of the brain. However, recent studies indicate that resting-state activity is not stationary, but shows complex temporal dynamics. We were interested in the spatiotemporal dynamics of the phase interactions among resting-state fMRI BOLD signals from human subjects. We found that the global phase synchrony of the BOLD signals evolves on a characteristic ultra-slow (<0.01Hz) time scale, and that its temporal variations reflect the transient formation and dissolution of multiple communities of synchronized brain regions. Synchronized communities reoccurred intermittently in time and across scanning sessions. We found that the synchronization communities relate to previously defined functional networks known to be engaged in sensory-motor or cognitive function, called resting-state networks (RSNs), including the default mode network, the somato-motor network, the visual network, the auditory network, the cognitive control networks, the self-referential network, and combinations of these and other RSNs. We studied the mechanism originating the observed spatiotemporal synchronization dynamics by using a network model of phase oscillators connected through the brain's anatomical connectivity estimated using diffusion imaging human data. The model consistently approximates the temporal and spatial synchronization patterns of the empirical data, and reveals that multiple clusters that transiently synchronize and desynchronize emerge from the complex topology of anatomical connections, provided that oscillators are heterogeneous.

Optimal fiscal policy in overlapping generations models

[eng] This paper provides, from a theoretical and quantitative point of view, an explanation of why taxes on capital returns are high (around 35%) by analyzing the optimal fiscal policy in an economy with intergenerational redistribution. For this purpose, the government is modeled explicitly and can choose (and commit to) an optimal tax policy in order to maximize society's welfare. In an infinitely lived economy with heterogeneous agents, the long run optimal capital tax is zero. If heterogeneity is due to the existence of overlapping generations, this result in general is no longer true. I provide sufficient conditions for zero capital and labor taxes, and show that a general class of preferences, commonly used on the macro and public finance literature, violate these conditions. For a version of the model, calibrated to the US economy, the main results are: first, if the government is restricted to a set of instruments, the observed fiscal policy cannot be disregarded as sub optimal and capital taxes are positive and quantitatively relevant. Second, if the government can use age specific taxes for each generation, then the age profile capital tax pattern implies subsidizing asset returns of the younger generations and taxing at higher rates the asset returns of the older ones.