Cities’ low carbon plans in an ‘age of austerity’: an analysis of UK local authority actions, attitudes and responses

Background: Cities play a significant role globally in creating carbon emissions but, as centers of major population, innovation and social practice, they also offer important opportunities to tackle climate change. The new challenges faced by cities in an ‘age of austerity’ and decentralist agendas present substantial challenges for coordinated multilevel governance. Results: Based on research carried out in 2011–2012, this paper examines the attitudes and responses of sustainability and climate change officers in UK cities that have prepared low carbon and climate change plans, in the context of these challenges. Using a conceptual framework that analyses ‘awareness’, ‘analysis’ and ‘actions’ (in the context of spending cuts and a new ‘decentralized’ policy agenda) this research suggests that progress on low-carbon futures for cities continues to be fragmented, with increased funding constraints, short-termism and lack of leadership acting as key barriers to progress. Conclusion: Recent UK national policies (including localism, austerity measures and new economic incentives) have not only created further uncertainties, but also scope for cities’ local innovation through policy leverage and self-governing actions.

Executive project management structure and the challenges acing its adoption in the Nigerian construction industry

Project management (PM) is a globally recognized discipline and has been widely adopted within the construction industry. Despite advancements in the PM discipline, the ineffective traditional management system, typical of the non-executive PM structure, is still widely used in the Nigerian construction industry. The aim of this paper is thus to explore the challenges facing the adoption of the executive PM structure in Nigeria. The paper first assesses the level of growth of PM in Nigeria using UK best practices as a benchmark and identifies the key PM characteristics in the two countries. Focus group interviews were used to collect the primary data for the study and content analysis was used to present the results in a thematic format. The study revealed the key barriers to the adoption of an executive PM structure in Nigeria as a lack of proper awareness, unfavorable policies, skill shortages, the traditional culture of stakeholders and the absence of a regulatory body. It is recommended that the government, as a major player/client in the Nigerian construction industry, should lead the campaign to change the traditional industry approach to project management. This is necessary if construction stakeholders in Nigeria are to be educated and encouraged towards adopting and putting into practice effective PM.

A decadal view of biodiversity informatics: challenges and priorities

Biodiversity informatics plays a central enabling role in the research community's efforts to address scientific conservation and sustainability issues. Great strides have been made in the past decade establishing a framework for sharing data, where taxonomy and systematics has been perceived as the most prominent discipline involved. To some extent this is inevitable, given the use of species names as the pivot around which information is organised. To address the urgent questions around conservation, land-use, environmental change, sustainability, food security and ecosystem services that are facing Governments worldwide, we need to understand how the ecosystem works. So, we need a systems approach to understanding biodiversity that moves significantly beyond taxonomy and species observations. Such an approach needs to look at the whole system to address species interactions, both with their environment and with other species.It is clear that some barriers to progress are sociological, basically persuading people to use the technological solutions that are already available. This is best addressed by developing more effective systems that deliver immediate benefit to the user, hiding the majority of the technology behind simple user interfaces. An infrastructure should be a space in which activities take place and, as such, should be effectively invisible.This community consultation paper positions the role of biodiversity informatics, for the next decade, presenting the actions needed to link the various biodiversity infrastructures invisibly and to facilitate understanding that can support both business and policy-makers. The community considers the goal in biodiversity informatics to be full integration of the biodiversity research community, including citizens' science, through a commonly-shared, sustainable e-infrastructure across all sub-disciplines that reliably serves science and society alike.

Introducing matrix management within a children's services setting - personal reflections

This article reflects on the introduction of ‘matrix management’ arrangements for an Educational Psychology Service (EPS) within a Children’s Service Directorate of a Local Authority (LA). It seeks to demonstrate critical self-awareness, consider relevant literature with a view to bringing insights to processes and outcomes, and offers recommendations regarding the use of matrix management. The report arises from an East Midland’s LA initiative: ALICSE − Advanced Leadership in an Integrated Children’s Service Environment. Through a literature review and personal reflection, the authors consider the following: possible tensions within the development of matrix management arrangements; whether matrix management is a prerequisite within complex organizational systems; and whether competing professional cultures may contribute barriers to creating complementary and collegiate working. The authors briefly consider some research paradigms, notably ethnographic approaches, soft systems methodology, activity theory and appreciative inquiry. These provide an analytic framework for the project and inform this iterative process of collaborative inquiry. Whilst these models help illuminate otherwise hidden processes, none have been implemented following full research methodologies, reflecting the messy reality of local authority working within dynamic organizational structures and shrinking budgets. Nevertheless, this article offers an honest reflection of organizational change within a children’s services environment.

Sensitivity of a hydraulic model to changes in channel erosion during extreme flooding

Recent research into flood modelling has primarily concentrated on the simulation of inundation flow without considering the influences of channel morphology. River channels are often represented by a simplified geometry that is implicitly assumed to remain unchanged during flood simulations. However, field evidence demonstrates that significant morphological changes can occur during floods to mobilise the boundary sediments. Despite this, the effect of channel morphology on model results has been largely unexplored. To address this issue, the impact of channel cross-section geometry and channel long-profile variability on flood dynamics is examined using an ensemble of a 1D-2D hydraulic model (LISFLOOD-FP) of the 1:2102 year recurrence interval floods in Cockermouth, UK, within an uncertainty framework. A series of hypothetical scenarios of channel morphology were constructed based on a simple velocity based model of critical entrainment. A Monte-Carlo simulation framework was used to quantify the effects of channel morphology together with variations in the channel and floodplain roughness coefficients, grain size characteristics, and critical shear stress on measures of flood inundation. The results showed that the bed elevation modifications generated by the simplistic equations reflected a good approximation of the observed patterns of spatial erosion despite its overestimation of erosion depths. The effect of uncertainty on channel long-profile variability only affected the local flood dynamics and did not significantly affect the friction sensitivity and flood inundation mapping. The results imply that hydraulic models generally do not need to account for within event morphodynamic changes of the type and magnitude modelled, as these have a negligible impact that is smaller than other uncertainties, e.g. boundary conditions. Instead morphodynamic change needs to happen over a series of events to become large enough to change the hydrodynamics of floods in supply limited gravel-bed rivers like the one used in this research.

From harmonisation to better, smart and fit food law

As the European Union (EU) approaches its 60th anniversary, it is worth assessing progress towards a key objective – the abolition of barriers to the marketing of food in the EU. Food has always created particular problems for the EU as national differences in diets, culture and geography make standardisation impossible. Early attempts focussed on direct measures to harmonise requirements or, later, to create an ‘internal market’. Subsequently a changed emphasis brought about the need to focus more clearly on the harmonisation of food safety. More widely, the recent recognition that too much legislation can itself create barriers has led legislators to attempt to consider more carefully the impact of their efforts. This paper reflects on the various stages in the creation of harmonised food controls and considers how case law has impacted the process. Today there are still differences and complete barrier-free trade seems some way off.

Microbes central to human reproduction

As studies uncover the breadth of microbes associated with human life, opportunities will emerge to manipulate and augment their functions in ways that improve health and longevity. From involvement in the complexities of reproduction and fetal/infant development, to delaying the onset of disease, and indeed countering many maladies, microbes offer hope for human well-being. Evidence is emerging to suggest that microbes may play a beneficial role in body sites traditionally viewed as being sterile. Although further evidence is required, we propose that much of medical dogma is about to change significantly through recognition and understanding of these hitherto unrecognized microbe–host interactions. A meeting of the International Scientific Association for Probiotics and Prebiotics held in Aberdeen, Scotland (June 2014), presented new views and challenged established concepts on the role of microbes in reproduction and health of the mother and infant. This article summarizes some of the main aspects of these discussions.

Towards a framework for managing IT-enabled change, sourcing and governance

In the resource-based view, organisations are represented by the sum of their physical, human and organisational assets, resources and capabilities. Operational capabilities maintain the status quo and allow an organisation to execute their existing business. Dynamic capabilities, otherwise, allow an organisation to change this status quo including a change of the operational ones. Competitive advantage, in this context, is an effect of continuously developing and reconfiguring these firm-specific assets through dynamic capabilities. Deciding where and how to source the core operational capabilities is a key success factor. Furthermore, developing its dynamic capabilities allows an organisation to effectively manage change its operational capabilities. Many organisations are asserted to have a high dependency on - as well as a high benefit from - the use of information technology (IT), making it a crucial and overarching resource. Furthermore, the IT function is assigned the role as a change enabler and so IT sourcing affects the capability of managing business change. IT sourcing means that organisations need to decide how to source their IT capabilities. Outsourcing of parts of the IT function will also outsource some of the IT capabilities and therefore some of the business capabilities. As a result, IT sourcing has an impact on the organisation's capabilities and consequently on the business success. And finally, a turbulent and fast moving business environment challenges organisations to effectively and efficiently managing business change. Our research builds on the existing theory of dynamic and operational capabilities by considering the interdependencies between the dynamic capabilities of business change and IT sourcing. Further it examines the decision-making oversight of these areas as implemented through IT governance. We introduce a new conceptual framework derived from the existing theory and extended through an illustrative case study conducted in a German bank. Under a philosophical paradigm of constructivism, we collected data from eight semi-structured interviews and used additional sources of evidence in form of annual accounts, strategy papers and IT benchmark reports. We applied an Interpretative Phenomenological Analysis (IPA), which emerged the superordinate themes for our tentative capabilities framework. An understanding of these interdependencies enables scholars and professionals to improve business success through effectively managing business change and evaluating the impact of IT sourcing decisions on the organisation's operational and dynamic capabilities.

Climate change and infectious disease: time for a new normal?

At present, there is a clarion call for action on climate change across the global health landscape. At the recent WHO-sponsored conference on health and climate (held in Geneva, Switzerland, on Aug 27–29, 2014) and the UN Climate Summit (New York, USA, on Sept 23, 2014), participants were encouraged to act decisively to change the current trajectory of climate disruption. Health inequalities, including those related to infectious diseases, have now been pushed to centre stage. This approach represents a step-change in thinking. But as we are urged toward collective action, is it time to rethink our approach to research, especially in relation to climate change and infectious disease?

A causal role for posterior medial prefrontal cortex in choice-induced preference change

After a person chooses between two items, preference for the chosen item will increase and preference for the unchosen item will decrease because of the choice made. In other words, we tend to justify or rationalize our past behavior by changing our attitude. This phenomenon of choice-induced preference change has been traditionally explained by cognitive dissonance theory. Choosing something that is disliked or not choosing something that is liked are both cognitively inconsistent, and in order to reduce this inconsistency, people tend to change their subsequently stated preference in accordance with their past choices. Previously, neuroimaging studies identified posterior medial frontal cortex (pMFC) as a key brain region involved in cognitive dissonance. However, it still remains unknown whether the pMFC plays a causal role in inducing preference change following cognitive dissonance. Here, we demonstrate that 25-min 1-Hz repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) applied over the pMFC significantly reduces choice-induced preference change compared to sham stimulation, or control stimulation over a different brain region, demonstrating a causal role for the pMFC.

Missing steps in a staircase: a qualitative study of the perspectives of key stakeholders on the use of adaptive designs in confirmatory trials

Background Despite the promising benefits of adaptive designs (ADs), their routine use, especially in confirmatory trials, is lagging behind the prominence given to them in the statistical literature. Much of the previous research to understand barriers and potential facilitators to the use of ADs has been driven from a pharmaceutical drug development perspective, with little focus on trials in the public sector. In this paper, we explore key stakeholders’ experiences, perceptions and views on barriers and facilitators to the use of ADs in publicly funded confirmatory trials. Methods Semi-structured, in-depth interviews of key stakeholders in clinical trials research (CTU directors, funding board and panel members, statisticians, regulators, chief investigators, data monitoring committee members and health economists) were conducted through telephone or face-to-face sessions, predominantly in the UK. We purposively selected participants sequentially to optimise maximum variation in views and experiences. We employed the framework approach to analyse the qualitative data. Results We interviewed 27 participants. We found some of the perceived barriers to be: lack of knowledge and experience coupled with paucity of case studies, lack of applied training, degree of reluctance to use ADs, lack of bridge funding and time to support design work, lack of statistical expertise, some anxiety about the impact of early trial stopping on researchers’ employment contracts, lack of understanding of acceptable scope of ADs and when ADs are appropriate, and statistical and practical complexities. Reluctance to use ADs seemed to be influenced by: therapeutic area, unfamiliarity, concerns about their robustness in decision-making and acceptability of findings to change practice, perceived complexities and proposed type of AD, among others. Conclusions There are still considerable multifaceted, individual and organisational obstacles to be addressed to improve uptake, and successful implementation of ADs when appropriate. Nevertheless, inferred positive change in attitudes and receptiveness towards the appropriate use of ADs by public funders are supportive and are a stepping stone for the future utilisation of ADs by researchers.

Behavioral economics, wearable devices, and cooperative games: results from a population-based intervention to increase physical activity

Background: Health care literature supports the development of accessible interventions that integrate behavioral economics, wearable devices, principles of evidence-based behavior change, and community support. However, there are limited real-world examples of large scale, population-based, member-driven reward platforms. Subsequently, a paucity of outcome data exists and health economic effects remain largely theoretical. To complicate matters, an emerging area of research is defining the role of Superusers, the small percentage of unusually engaged digital health participants who may influence other members. Objective: The objective of this preliminary study is to analyze descriptive data from GOODcoins, a self-guided, free-to-consumer engagement and rewards platform incentivizing walking, running and cycling. Registered members accessed the GOODcoins platform through PCs, tablets or mobile devices, and had the opportunity to sync wearables to track activity. Following registration, members were encouraged to join gamified group challenges and compare their progress with that of others. As members met challenge targets, they were rewarded with GOODcoins, which could be redeemed for planet- or people-friendly products. Methods: Outcome data were obtained from the GOODcoins custom SQL database. The reporting period was December 1, 2014 to May 1, 2015. Descriptive self-report data were analyzed using MySQL and MS Excel. Results: The study period includes data from 1298 users who were connected to an exercise tracking device. Females consisted of 52.6% (n=683) of the study population, 33.7% (n=438) were between the ages of 20-29, and 24.8% (n=322) were between the ages of 30-39. 77.5% (n=1006) of connected and active members met daily-recommended physical activity guidelines of 30 minutes, with a total daily average activity of 107 minutes (95% CI 90, 124). Of all connected and active users, 96.1% (n=1248) listed walking as their primary activity. For members who exchanged GOODcoins, the mean balance was 4,000 (95% CI 3850, 4150) at time of redemption, and 50.4% (n=61) of exchanges were for fitness or outdoor products, while 4.1% (n=5) were for food-related items. Participants were most likely to complete challenges when rewards were between 201-300 GOODcoins. Conclusions: The purpose of this study is to form a baseline for future research. Overall, results indicate that challenges and incentives may be effective for connected and active members, and may play a role in achieving daily-recommended activity guidelines. Registrants were typically younger, walking was the primary activity, and rewards were mainly exchanged for fitness or outdoor products. Remaining to be determined is whether members were already physically active at time of registration and are representative of healthy adherers, or were previously inactive and were incentivized to change their behavior. As challenges are gamified, there is an opportunity to investigate the role of superusers and healthy adherers, impacts on behavioral norms, and how cooperative games and incentives can be leveraged across stratified populations. Study limitations and future research agendas are discussed.

The global-scale impacts of climate change: the QUEST-GSI project

This paper introduces the special issue of Climatic Change on the QUEST-GSI project, a global-scale multi-sectoral assessment of the impacts of climate change. The project used multiple climate models to characterise plausible climate futures with consistent baseline climate and socio-economic data and consistent assumptions, together with a suite of global-scale sectoral impacts models. It estimated impacts across sectors under specific SRES emissions scenarios, and also constructed functions relating impact to change in global mean surface temperature. This paper summarises the objectives of the project and its overall methodology, outlines how the project approach has been used in subsequent policy-relevant assessments of future climate change under different emissions futures, and summarises the general lessons learnt in the project about model validation and the presentation of multi-sector, multi-region impact assessments and their associated uncertainties to different audiences.

Concordant Phylogeographies of 2 Malaria Vectors Attest to Common Spatial and Demographic Histories

The phylogeography of South American lineages is a topic of heated debate. Although a single process is unlikely to describe entire ecosystems, related species, which incur similar habitat limitations, can inform the history for a subsection of assemblages. We compared the phylogeographic patterns of the cytochrome oxidase I marker from Anopheles triannulatus (N = 72) and previous results for A. darlingi (N = 126) in a broad portion of their South American distributions. Both species share similar population subdivisions, with aggregations northeast of the Amazon River, in southern coastal Brazil and 2 regions in central Brazil. The average (ST) between these groups was 0.39 for A. triannulatus. Populations northeast of the Amazon and in southeastern Brazil are generally reciprocally monophyletic to the remaining groups. Based on these initial analyses, we constructed the a priori hypothesis that the Amazon and regions of high declivity pose geographic barriers to dispersal in these taxa. Mantel tests confirmed that these areas block gene flow for more than 1000 km for both species. The efficacy of these impediments was tested using landscape genetics, which could not reject our a priori hypothesis but did reject simpler scenarios. Results form summary statistics and phylogenetics suggest that both lineages originated in central Amazonia (south of the Amazon River) during the late Pleistocene (579 000 years ago) and that they followed the same paths of expansion into their contemporary distributions. These results may have implications for other species sharing similar ecological limitations but probably are not applicable as a general paradigm of Neotropical biogeography.

Opinion dynamics of learning agents: does seeking consensus lead to disagreement?

We study opinion dynamics in a population of interacting adaptive agents voting on a set of issues represented by vectors. We consider agents who can classify issues into one of two categories and can arrive at their opinions using an adaptive algorithm. Adaptation comes from learning and the information for the learning process comes from interacting with other neighboring agents and trying to change the internal state in order to concur with their opinions. The change in the internal state is driven by the information contained in the issue and in the opinion of the other agent. We present results in a simple yet rich context where each agent uses a Boolean perceptron to state their opinion. If the update occurs with information asynchronously exchanged among pairs of agents, then the typical case, if the number of issues is kept small, is the evolution into a society torn by the emergence of factions with extreme opposite beliefs. This occurs even when seeking consensus with agents with opposite opinions. If the number of issues is large, the dynamics becomes trapped, the society does not evolve into factions and a distribution of moderate opinions is observed. The synchronous case is technically simpler and is studied by formulating the problem in terms of differential equations that describe the evolution of order parameters that measure the consensus between pairs of agents. We show that for a large number of issues and unidirectional information flow, global consensus is a fixed point; however, the approach to this consensus is glassy for large societies.