Self-organized vegetation patterning as a fingerprint of climate and human impact on semi-arid ecosystems

Spatially periodic vegetation patterns are well known in arid and semi-arid regions around the world. Mathematical models have been developed that attribute this phenomenon to a symmetry-breaking instability. Such models are based on the interplay between competitive and facilitative influences that the vegetation exerts on its own dynamics when it is constrained by arid conditions, but evidence for these predictions is still lacking. Moreover, not all models can account for the development of regularly spaced spots of bare ground in the absence of a soil prepattern. We applied Fourier analysis to high-resolution, remotely sensed data taken at either end of a 40-year interval in southern Niger. Statistical comparisons based on this textural characterization gave us broad-scale evidence that the decrease in rainfall over recent decades in the sub-Saharan Sahel has been accompanied by a detectable shift from homogeneous vegetation cover to spotted patterns marked by a spatial frequency of about 20 cycles km-1. Wood cutting and grazing by domestic animals have led to a much more marked transition in unprotected areas than in a protected reserve. Field measurements demonstrated that the dominant spatial frequency was endogenous rather than reflecting the spatial variation of any pre-existing heterogeneity in soil properties. All these results support the use of models that can account for periodic vegetation patterns without invoking substrate heterogeneity or anisotropy, and provide new elements for further developments, refinements and tests. This study underlines the potential of studying vegetation pattern properties for monitoring climatic and human impacts on the extensive fragile areas bordering hot deserts. Explicit consideration of vegetation self-patterning may also improve our understanding of vegetation and climate interactions in arid areas. © 2006 The Authors.

Temporal variations of IEEE 802.11b signal strengths in an in-building environment

Recent popularity of the IEEE 802.11b Wireless Local Area Networks (WLANs) in a host of current-day applications has instigated a suite of research challenges. The 802.11b WLANs are highly reliable and wide spread. In this work, we study the temporal characteristics of RSSI in the real-working environment by conducting a controlled set of experiments. Our results indicate that a significant variability in the RSSI can occur over time. Some of this variability in the RSSI may be due to systematic causes while the other component can be expressed as stochastic noise. We present an analysis of both these aspects of RSSI. We treat the moving average of the RSSI as the systematic causes and the noise as the stochastic causes. We give a reasonable estimate for the moving average to compute the noise accurately. We attribute the changes in the environment such as the movement of people and the noise associated with the NIC circuitry and the network access point as causes for this variability. We find that the results of our analysis are of primary importance to active research areas such as location determination of users in a WLAN. The techniques used in some of the RF-based WLAN location determination systems, exploit the characteristics of the RSSI presented in this work to infer the location of a wireless client in a WLAN. Thus our results form the building blocks for other users of the exact characteristics of the RSSI.

Quantifying data quality for clinical trials using electronic data capture.

BACKGROUND: Historically, only partial assessments of data quality have been performed in clinical trials, for which the most common method of measuring database error rates has been to compare the case report form (CRF) to database entries and count discrepancies. Importantly, errors arising from medical record abstraction and transcription are rarely evaluated as part of such quality assessments. Electronic Data Capture (EDC) technology has had a further impact, as paper CRFs typically leveraged for quality measurement are not used in EDC processes. METHODS AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The National Institute on Drug Abuse Treatment Clinical Trials Network has developed, implemented, and evaluated methodology for holistically assessing data quality on EDC trials. We characterize the average source-to-database error rate (14.3 errors per 10,000 fields) for the first year of use of the new evaluation method. This error rate was significantly lower than the average of published error rates for source-to-database audits, and was similar to CRF-to-database error rates reported in the published literature. We attribute this largely to an absence of medical record abstraction on the trials we examined, and to an outpatient setting characterized by less acute patient conditions. CONCLUSIONS: Historically, medical record abstraction is the most significant source of error by an order of magnitude, and should be measured and managed during the course of clinical trials. Source-to-database error rates are highly dependent on the amount of structured data collection in the clinical setting and on the complexity of the medical record, dependencies that should be considered when developing data quality benchmarks.

Identification and assessment of potential wind energy project sites in the State of Maryland

Gemstone Team Renewables

Hostile attributional bias and aggressive behavior in global context.

We tested a model that children's tendency to attribute hostile intent to others in response to provocation is a key psychological process that statistically accounts for individual differences in reactive aggressive behavior and that this mechanism contributes to global group differences in children's chronic aggressive behavior problems. Participants were 1,299 children (mean age at year 1 = 8.3 y; 51% girls) from 12 diverse ecological-context groups in nine countries worldwide, followed across 4 y. In year 3, each child was presented with each of 10 hypothetical vignettes depicting an ambiguous provocation toward the child and was asked to attribute the likely intent of the provocateur (coded as benign or hostile) and to predict his or her own behavioral response (coded as nonaggression or reactive aggression). Mothers and children independently rated the child's chronic aggressive behavior problems in years 2, 3, and 4. In every ecological group, in those situations in which a child attributed hostile intent to a peer, that child was more likely to report that he or she would respond with reactive aggression than in situations when that same child attributed benign intent. Across children, hostile attributional bias scores predicted higher mother- and child-rated chronic aggressive behavior problems, even controlling for prior aggression. Ecological group differences in the tendency for children to attribute hostile intent statistically accounted for a significant portion of group differences in chronic aggressive behavior problems. The findings suggest a psychological mechanism for group differences in aggressive behavior and point to potential interventions to reduce aggressive behavior.

Experimental measurement of preferences in health care using best-worst scaling (BWS): theoretical and statistical issues.

For optimal solutions in health care, decision makers inevitably must evaluate trade-offs, which call for multi-attribute valuation methods. Researchers have proposed using best-worst scaling (BWS) methods which seek to extract information from respondents by asking them to identify the best and worst items in each choice set. While a companion paper describes the different types of BWS, application and their advantages and downsides, this contribution expounds their relationships with microeconomic theory, which also have implications for statistical inference. This article devotes to the microeconomic foundations of preference measurement, also addressing issues such as scale invariance and scale heterogeneity. Furthermore the paper discusses the basics of preference measurement using rating, ranking and stated choice data in the light of the findings of the preceding section. Moreover the paper gives an introduction to the use of stated choice data and juxtaposes BWS with the microeconomic foundations.

Evaluación de atributos del suelo para su utilización como indicadores de calidad y sostenibilidad en Entre Ríos

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A case based model to assist in the design process in the manufacture of furniture products

This paper describes progress on a project to utilise case based reasoning methods in the design and manufacture of furniture products. The novel feature of this research is that cases are represented as structures in a relational database of products, components and materials. The paper proposes a method for extending the usual "weighted sum" over attribute similarities for a ·single table to encompass relational structures over several tables. The capabilities of the system are discussed, particularly with respect to differing user objectives, such as cost estimation, CAD, cutting scheme re-use, and initial design. It is shown that specification of a target case as a relational structure combined with suitable weights can fulfil several user functions. However, it is also shown that some user functions cannot satisfactorily be specified via a single target case. For these functions it is proposed to allow the specification of a set of target cases. A derived similarity measure between individuals and sets of cases is proposed.

Feeding of Calanus finmarchicus and Oithona similis on the microplankton assemblage in the Irminger Sea, North Atlantic

The present investigation reviews published data on the feeding rates and prey selection of Oithona similis females, Calanus finmarchicus nauplii and females in the Irminger Sea in April/May and July/August 2002. Our aim was to examine how the feeding rates and prey selection of these three copepod stages respond to concomitant changes in microplankton community composition and prey abundance. Copepods typically ingested prey overall according to its ambient concentration although significant species and stage-specific differences in prey-type ingestion and selection were apparent. Despite being of comparable weight, the ingestion rates of C. finmarchicus nauplii were always higher than those of the O. similis females. Moreover, C. finmarchicus nauplii and O. similis females fed preferentially on diatoms and ciliates respectively, whereas adult female C. finmarchicus showed limited prey selectivity. Copepod grazing impact on total and on ciliates/dinoflagellates standing stock was <0.5 and <2%, respectively. We attribute this result to a combination of low grazing rates, low copepod abundance and low microplankton biomass, all of which are indicative of the non-bloom conditions under which these experiments were conducted. The differences in copepod feeding rates and prey selection we report reflect species and stage-specific eco-physiological adaptations, which may act as important driving forces for marine ecosystem structuring and functioning.

Large bio-geographical shifts in the north-eastern Atlantic Ocean: From the subpolar gyre, via plankton, to blue whiting and pilot whales

Pronounced changes in fauna, extending from the English Channel in the south to the Barents Sea in the north-east and off Greenland in the north-west, have occurred in the late 1920s, the late 1960s and again in the late 1990s. We attribute these events to exchanges of subarctic and subtropical water masses in the north-eastern North Atlantic Ocean, associated with changes in the strength and extent of the subpolar gyre. These exchanges lead to variations in the influence exerted by the subarctic or Lusitanian biomes on the intermediate faunistic zone in the north-eastern Atlantic. This strong and persistent bottom-up bio-physical link is demonstrated using a numerical ocean general circulation model and data on four trophically connected levels in the food chain – phytoplankton, zooplankton, blue whiting, and pilot whales. The plankton data give a unique basin-scale depiction of these changes, and a long pilot whale record from the Faroe Islands offers an exceptional temporal perspective over three centuries. Recent advances in simulating the dynamics of the subpolar gyre suggests a potential for predicting the distribution of the main faunistic zones in the north-eastern Atlantic a few years into the future, which might facilitate a more rational management of the commercially important fisheries in this region.

Black-legged kittiwakes as indicators of environmental change in the North Sea; evidence from long-term studies

Top predators, particularly seabirds, have repeatedly been suggested as indicators of marine ecosystem status. One region currently under pressure from human fisheries and climate change is the North Sea. Standardized seabird monitoring data have been collected on the Isle of May, an important seabird colony in the northwestern North Sea, over the last 10–20 years. Over this period oceanographic conditions have varied markedly, and between 1990 and 1999 a major industrial fishery for sandlance (Ammodytes marinus), the main prey of most seabird species, was prosecuted nearby. Sandlance fishing grounds close to seabird colonies down the east coast of the UK were closed in 2000 in an attempt to improve foraging opportunities for breeding seabirds, particularly black-legged kittiwakes (Rissa tridactyla). Initially this closure seemed to be beneficial for kittiwakes with breeding success recovering to pre-fishery levels. However, despite the ban continuing, kittiwakes and many other seabird species in the North Sea suffered severe breeding failures in 2004. In this paper, we test the predictive power of four previously established correlations between kittiwake breeding success and climatic/trophic variables to explain the observed breeding success at the Isle of May in 2004. During the breeding season, kittiwakes at this colony switch from feeding on 1+ group to 0 group sandlance, and results up until 2003 indicated that availability of both age classes had a positive effect on kittiwake breeding success. The low breeding success of kittiwakes in 2004 was consistent with the late appearance and small body size of 0 group sandlance, but at odds with the two variables likely to operate via 1 group availability (lagged winter sea surface temperature and larval sandlance cohort strength in 2003). The reason for the discrepancy is currently unknown, but analysis of 1 group sandlance body composition indicated that lipid content in 2004 was extremely low, and thus fish eaten by kittiwakes during pre-breeding and early incubation were likely to be of poor quality. Monitoring of reproductive success of kittiwakes, although useful, was clearly not sufficient to tease apart the complex causation underlying the 2004 event. Monitoring programs such as this, therefore, need to be complemented by detailed research to identify the mechanisms involved, and to attribute and predict the effects of natural and human-induced environmental change.

Are Fast Responses More Random? Testing the Effect of Response Time on Scale in an Online Choice Experiment

Scepticism over stated preference surveys conducted online revolves around the concerns over “professional respondents” who might rush through the questionnaire without sufficiently considering the information provided. To gain insight on the validity of this phenomenon and test the effect of response time on choice randomness, this study makes use of a recently conducted choice experiment survey on ecological and amenity effects of an offshore windfarm in the UK. The positive relationship between self-rated and inferred attribute attendance and response time is taken as evidence for a link between response time and cognitive effort. Subsequently, the generalised multinomial logit model is employed to test the effect of response time on scale, which indicates the weight of the deterministic relative to the error component in the random utility model. Results show that longer response time increases scale, i.e. decreases choice randomness. This positive scale effect of response time is further found to be non-linear and wear off at some point beyond which extreme response time decreases scale. While response time does not systematically affect welfare estimates, higher response time increases the precision of such estimates. These effects persist when self-reported choice certainty is controlled for. Implications of the results for online stated preference surveys and further research are discussed.

Marine biodiversity and ecosystem function relationships:the potential for practical monitoring applications

There is an increasing demand for environmental assessments of the marine environment to include ecosystem function. However, existing schemes are predominantly based on taxonomic (i.e. structural) measures of biodiversity. Biodiversity and Ecosystem Function (BEF) relationships are suggested to provide a mechanism for converting taxonomic information into surrogates of ecosystem function. This review assesses the evidence for marine BEF relationships and their potential to be used in practical monitoring applications (i.e. operationalized). Five key requirements were identified for the practical application of BEF relationships: (1) a complete understanding of strength, direction and prevalence of marine BEF relationships, (2) an understanding of which biological components are influential within specific BEF relationships, (3) the biodiversity of the selected biological components can be measured easily, (4) the ecological mechanisms that are the most important for generating marine BEF relationships, i.e. identity effects or complementarity, are known and (5) the proportion of the overall functional variance is explained by biodiversity, and hence BEF relationships, has been established. Numerous positive and some negative BEF relationships were found within the literature, although many reproduced poorly the natural species richness, trophic structures or multiple functions of real ecosystems (requirement 1). Null relationships were also reported. The consistency of the positive and negative relationships was often low that compromised the ability to generalize BEF relationships and confident application of BEF within marine monitoring. Equally, some biological components and functions have received little or no investigation. Expert judgement was used to attribute biological components using spatial extent, presence and functional rate criteria (requirement 2). This approach highlighted the main biological components contributing the most to specific ecosystem functions, and that many of the particularly influential components were found to have received the least amount of research attention. The need for biodiversity to be measureable (requirement 3) is possible for most biological components although difficult within the functionally important microbes. Identity effects underpinned most marine BEF relationships (requirement 4). As such, processes that translated structural biodiversity measures into functional diversity were found to generate better BEF relationships. The analysis of the contribution made by biodiversity, over abiotic influences, to the total expression of a particular ecosystem function was rarely measured or considered (requirement 5). Hence it is not possible to determine the overall importance of BEF relationships within the total ecosystem functioning observed. In the few studies where abiotic factors had been considered, it was clear that these modified BEF relationships and have their own direct influence on functional rate. Based on the five requirements, the information required for immediate ‘operationalization’ of BEF relationships within marine functional monitoring is lacking. However, the concept of BEF inclusion within practical monitoring applications, supported by ecological modelling, shows promise for providing surrogate indicators of functioning.

Female-biased sex ratios in marine pelagic copepods: comment on Gusmao et al

Gusmão et al. (2013; Mar Ecol Prog Ser 482:279-298) review causes of sex ratio skew in pelagic copepods and in doing so repeatedly dispute the paper of Hirst et al. (2010) ‘Does predation control adult sex ratios and longevities in marine pelagic copepods?’ Here we respond to some important errors in their citation of our paper and briefly highlight where future work is needed in order to attribute the causes of strong sex ratio skew seen in some copepod families.

Assessing non-market benefits of seagrass restoration in the Gulf of Gdańsk

Seagrass meadows (Zostera marina) are an important ecosystem in the coastal environment of the Baltic Sea. This study employs a discrete choice experiment to value a set of non-market benefits provided by seagrass meadows in the Gulf of Gdańsk, Poland. The benefits valued in this study are a reduction of filamentous algae in the water and on the beach; access to seagrass meadows for boaters and divers; and improved water clarity. Results show significant willingness to pay for each attribute and differences of value estimates across different groups of survey respondents. It is discussed how to link choice attributes and estimated values with established ecosystem benefit categories in order to facilitate value transfer.