Modeling the age of tropical moist forest fragments in heavily-cleared lowland landscapes of Colombia

Increasingly, large areas of native tropical forests are being transformed into a mosaic of human dominated land uses with scattered mature remnants and secondary forests. In general, at the end of the land clearing process, the landscape will have two forest components: a stable component of surviving mature forests, and a dynamic component of secondary forests of different ages. As the proportion of mature forests continues to decline, secondary forests play an increasing role in the conservation and restoration of biodiversity. This paper aims to predict and explain spatial and temporal patterns in the age of remnant mature and secondary forests in lowland Colombian landscapes. We analyse the age distributions of forest fragments, using detailed temporal land cover data derived from aerial photographs. Ordinal logistic regression analysis was applied to model the spatial dynamics of mature and secondary forest patches. In particular, the effect of soil fertility, accessibility and auto-correlated neighbourhood terms on forest age and time of isolation of remnant patches was assessed. In heavily transformed landscapes, forests account for approximately 8% of the total landscape area, of which three quarters are comprised of secondary forests. Secondary forest growth adjacent to mature forest patches increases mean patch size and core area, and therefore plays an important ecological role in maintaining landscape structure. The regression models show that forest age is positively associated with the amount of neighbouring forest, and negatively associated with the amount of neighbouring secondary vegetation, so the older the forest is the less secondary vegetation there is adjacent to it. Accessibility and soil fertility also have a negative but variable influence on the age of forest remnants. The probability of future clearing if current conditions hold is higher for regenerated than mature forests. The challenge of biodiversity conservation and restoration in dynamic and spatially heterogeneous landscape mosaics composed of mature and secondary forests is discussed. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Treatment of falciparum malaria in the age of drug-resistance

The growing problem of drug resistance has greatly complicated the treatment for falciparum malaria. Whereaschloroquine and sulfadoxine/ pyrimethamine could once cure most infections, this is no longer true and requiresexamination of alternative regimens. Not all treatment failures are drug resistant and other issues such asexpired antimalarials and patient compliance need to be considered. Continuation of a failing treatment policyafter drug resistance is established suppresses infections rather than curing them, leading to increasedtransmission of malaria, promotion of epidemics and loss of public confidence in malaria control programs.Antifolate drug resistance (i.e. pyrimethamine) means that new combinations are urgently needed particularlybecause addition of a single drug to an already failing regimen is rarely effective for very long. Atovaquone/proguanil and mefloquine have been used against multiple drug resistant falciparum malaria with resistance toeach having been documented soon after drug introduction. Drug combinations delay further transmission ofresistant parasites by increasing cure rates and inhibiting formation of gametocytes. Most currentlyrecommended drug combinations for falciparum malaria are variants of artemisinin combination therapy wherea rapidly acting artemisinin compound is combined with a longer half-life drug of a different class. Artemisininsused include dihydroartemisinin, artesunate, artemether and companion drugs include mefloquine, amodiaquine,sulfadoxine/ pyrimethamine, lumefantrine, piperaquine, pyronaridine, chlorproguanil/dapsone. The standard ofcare must be to cure malaria by killing the last parasite. Combination antimalarial treatment is vital not only tothe successful treatment of individual patients but also for public health control of malaria.

Employment services in an age of e-government

The increasing use of information and communications technologies among government departments and non-government agencies has fundamentally changed the implementation of employment services policy in Australia. The administrative arrangements for governing unemployment and unemployed people are now constituted by a complex contractual interplay between government departments as ‘purchasers’ and a range of small and large private organizations as ‘providers’. Assessing, tracking and monitoring the activities of unemployed people through the various parts of the employment services system has been made possible by developments in information technology and tailored computer programs. Consequently, the discretionary capacity that is traditionally associated with ‘street-level bureaucracy’ has been partly transformed into more prescriptive forms of ‘screen-level bureaucracy’. The knowledge embedded in these new computer-based technologies is considered superior because it is based on ‘objective calculations’, rather than subjective assessments of individual employees. The relationship between the sociopolitical context of unemployment policy and emerging forms of e-government is explored using illustrative findings from a qualitative pilot study undertaken in two Australian sites. The findings suggest that some of the new technologies in the employment services system are welcomed, while other applications are experienced as contradictory to the aims of delivering a personalized and respectful service.

Birth weight and age at menopause in Australian female twin pairs: exploration of the fetal origin hypothesis

In a twin sample where duration of gestation can be controlled, a specific example of the fetal origins hypothesis concerning association between low birth weight and early age at menopause is explored. The hypothesis is based on the physiologically plausible path from intrauterine growth retardation and reduced numbers of primary follicles to an earlier menopause. The sample comprised 323 Australian female twin pairs where both co-twins had reached menopause naturally and reported on their weight at birth. Regression analysis showed no linear association between the two variables (P = 0.371, r(2) = 0.0009). Intra-pair differences in age at menopause were investigated in the context of relative birth weight of co-twins. In 265 pairs an intra-pair birth a eight difference was reported. In monozygotic (MZ) pairs (n = 168) this allowed for control of genetic effects as well as gestation duration. No significant differences dependent on birth weight relative to co-twin were found for age at natural menopause in either MZ or dizygotic (DZ) twin pairs, even in pairs whose birth weights differed markedly. There was some indication that twins with premature ovarian failure were heavier at birth than twins with normal or later menopausal age. We conclude that the hypothesis that lower birth weight is associated with earlier menopause is not supported by our data.