Tests of sunspot number sequences: 3. Effects of regression procedures on the calibration of historic sunspot data

We use sunspot group observations from the Royal Greenwich Observatory (RGO) to investigate the effects of intercalibrating data from observers with different visual acuities. The tests are made by counting the number of groups RB above a variable cut-off threshold of observed total whole-spot area (uncorrected for foreshortening) to simulate what a lower acuity observer would have seen. The synthesised annual means of RB are then re-scaled to the full observed RGO group number RA using a variety of regression techniques. It is found that a very high correlation between RA and RB (rAB > 0.98) does not prevent large errors in the intercalibration (for example sunspot maximum values can be over 30 % too large even for such levels of rAB). In generating the backbone sunspot number (RBB), Svalgaard and Schatten (2015, this issue) force regression fits to pass through the scatter plot origin which generates unreliable fits (the residuals do not form a normal distribution) and causes sunspot cycle amplitudes to be exaggerated in the intercalibrated data. It is demonstrated that the use of Quantile-Quantile (“Q  Q”) plots to test for a normal distribution is a useful indicator of erroneous and misleading regression fits. Ordinary least squares linear fits, not forced to pass through the origin, are sometimes reliable (although the optimum method used is shown to be different when matching peak and average sunspot group numbers). However, other fits are only reliable if non-linear regression is used. From these results it is entirely possible that the inflation of solar cycle amplitudes in the backbone group sunspot number as one goes back in time, relative to related solar-terrestrial parameters, is entirely caused by the use of inappropriate and non-robust regression techniques to calibrate the sunspot data.

The impact of variable sea ice roughness on changes in Arctic Ocean surface stress: a model study

The Arctic sea ice cover is thinning and retreating, causing changes in surface roughness that in turn modify the momentum flux from the atmosphere through the ice into the ocean. New model simulations comprising variable sea ice drag coefficients for both the air and water interface demonstrate that the heterogeneity in sea ice surface roughness significantly impacts the spatial distribution and trends of ocean surface stress during the last decades. Simulations with constant sea ice drag coefficients as used in most climate models show an increase in annual mean ocean surface stress (0.003 N/m2 per decade, 4.6%) due to the reduction of ice thickness leading to a weakening of the ice and accelerated ice drift. In contrast, with variable drag coefficients our simulations show annual mean ocean surface stress is declining at a rate of -0.002 N/m2 per decade (3.1%) over the period 1980-2013 because of a significant reduction in surface roughness associated with an increasingly thinner and younger sea ice cover. The effectiveness of sea ice in transferring momentum does not only depend on its resistive strength against the wind forcing but is also set by its top and bottom surface roughness varying with ice types and ice conditions. This reveals the need to account for sea ice surface roughness variations in climate simulations in order to correctly represent the implications of sea ice loss under global warming.

Sensitivity of OMI SO2 measurements to variable eruptive behaviour at Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat

Since 2004, the satellite-borne Ozone Mapping Instrument (OMI) has observed sulphur dioxide (SO2) plumes during both quiescence and effusive eruptive activity at Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat. On average, OMI detected a SO2 plume 4-6 times more frequently during effusive periods than during quiescence in the 2008-2010 period. The increased ability of OMI to detect SO2 during eruptive periods is mainly due to an increase in plume altitude rather than a higher SO2 emission rate. Three styles of eruptive activity cause thermal lofting of gases (Vulcanian explosions; pyroclastic flows; a hot lava dome) and the resultant plume altitudes are estimated from observations and models. Most lofting plumes from Soufrière Hills are derived from hot domes and pyroclastic flows. Although Vulcanian explosions produced the largest plumes, some produced only negligible SO2 signals detected by OMI. OMI is most valuable for monitoring purposes at this volcano during periods of lava dome growth and during explosive activity.

The multiple team formation problem using sociometry

The Team Formation problem (TFP) has become a well-known problem in the OR literature over the last few years. In this problem, the allocation of multiple individuals that match a required set of skills as a group must be chosen to maximise one or several social positive attributes. Speci�cally, the aim of the current research is two-fold. First, two new dimensions of the TFP are added by considering multiple projects and fractions of people's dedication. This new problem is named the Multiple Team Formation Problem (MTFP). Second, an optimization model consisting in a quadratic objective function, linear constraints and integer variables is proposed for the problem. The optimization model is solved by three algorithms: a Constraint Programming approach provided by a commercial solver, a Local Search heuristic and a Variable Neighbourhood Search metaheuristic. These three algorithms constitute the first attempt to solve the MTFP, being a variable neighbourhood local search metaheuristic the most effi�cient in almost all cases. Applications of this problem commonly appear in real-life situations, particularly with the current and ongoing development of social network analysis. Therefore, this work opens multiple paths for future research.

Physical and sensory properties of regular and reduced-fat pound cakes with added amaranth flour

The sum of wheat flour and corn starch was replaced by 10, 20, or 30% whole amaranth flour in both conventional (C) and reduced fat (RF) pound cakes. and the effects on physical and sensory properties of the cakes were investigated. RF presented 33% fat reduction. The increasing amaranth levels darkened crust and crumb of cakes, which decreased color acceptability. Fresh amaranth-containing cakes had similar texture characteristics to (he controls, evaluated both instrumentally and sensorially. Sensory evaluation revealed that replacement by 30% amaranth flour decreased C cakes overall acceptability scores, clue to its lower specific volume and darker color. Amaranth flour levels had no significant effect on overall acceptability of RF cakes. Hence, the sum of wheat flour and corn starch could be successfully replaced by up to 20% amaranth flour in C and up to 30% in RF pound cakes without negatively affecting sensory quality in fresh cakes. Moisture losses for all the cakes were similar, approximate to 1% per day during storage. After six days of storage, both C and RF amaranth-containing cakes had higher hardness and chewiness values than control cakes. Further experiments involving sensory evaluation during storage are necessary to determine the exact limit of amaranth flour replacement.

Physical properties of goat milk powder with soy lecithin added before spray drying

P>In this study, physical characteristics of goat milk powder produced with the addition of soy lecithin at levels of 0 (control), 0.4, 0.8 and 1.0 g lecithin/100 g of total solids in concentrated milk before the spray drying process were investigated. Goat milk was pasteurised, concentrated at 40% of total solids, spray dried and packed in plastic bags under vaccum conditions. Lecithin addition decreased the wetting time of milk powders, although no influence was observed on dispersibility, water sorption, water activity and particle size distribution of the powders. Powders with higher levels of lecithin showed significantly lower brightness, with a greater intensity of yellow colour. It was concluded that lecithin addition before spray drying process at the minimal proportion in concentrated milk of 0.4 g lecithin/100 g of total solids in concentrated milk is useful for achieving more rapid wetting time of goat milk powder.

Variable phenotypic manifestations of a K44N mutation in the TGIF gene

The etiologies and clinical spectra of HPE are extremely heterogeneous. Here, we report a Brazilian boy with lobar holoprosencephaly who was ascertained in a sample of 60 patients with HPE and HPE-like phenotypes and screened for molecular analysis of the major HPE causative genes: SHH, PTCH, SIX3, GLI2, and TGIF This boy presented a p.K44N (c.132G > T) mutation in exon 2 of the TGIF gene which was inherited from his phenotypically normal mother. This mutation leads to lysine to arginine amino acid change and is predicted to be a damaging mutation. Clinical aspects involving variable phenotypical manifestations in different mutations of TGIF are discussed. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A two-armed pattern in flickering maps of the nova-like variable UU aquarii

We report the analysis of a uniform sample of 31 light curves of the nova-like variable UU Aqr with eclipse-mapping techniques. The data were combined to derive eclipse maps of the average steady-light component, the long-term brightness changes, and the low- and high-frequency flickering components. The long-term variability responsible for the ""low-brightness`` and ""high-brightness`` states is explained in terms of the response of a viscous disk to changes of 20%-50% in the mass transfer rate from the donor star. Low- and high-frequency flickering maps are dominated by emission from two asymmetric arcs reminiscent of those seen in the outbursting dwarf nova IP Peg, and they are similarly interpreted as manifestations of a tidally induced spiral shock wave in the outer regions of a large accretion disk. The asymmetric arcs are also seen in the map of the steady light aside from the broad brightness distribution of a roughly steady-state disk. The arcs account for 25% of the steady-light flux and are a long-lasting feature in the accretion disk of UU Aqr. We infer an opening angle of 10 degrees +/- 3 degrees for the spiral arcs. The results suggest that the flickering in UU Aqr is caused by turbulence generated after the collision of disk gas with the density-enhanced spiral wave in the accretion disk.

ON THE NATURE OF THE PROTOTYPE LUMINOUS BLUE VARIABLE AG CARINAE. II. WITNESSING A MASSIVE STAR EVOLVING CLOSE TO THE EDDINGTON AND BISTABILITY LIMITS

We show that the significantly different effective temperatures (T(eff)) achieved by the luminous blue variable AG Carinae during the consecutive visual minima of 1985-1990 (T(eff) similar or equal to 22,800 K) and 2000-2001 (T(eff) similar or equal to 17,000 K) place the star on different sides of the bistability limit, which occurs in line-driven stellar winds around T(eff) similar to 21,000 K. Decisive evidence is provided by huge changes in the optical depth of the Lyman continuum in the inner wind as T(eff) changes during the S Dor cycle. These changes cause different Fe ionization structures in the inner wind. The bistability mechanism is also related to the different wind parameters during visual minima: the wind terminal velocity was 2-3 times higher and the mass-loss rate roughly two times smaller in 1985-1990 than in 2000-2003. We obtain a projected rotational velocity of 220 +/- 50 km s(-1) during 1985-1990 which, combined with the high luminosity (L(star) = 1.5 x 10(6) L(circle dot)), puts AG Car extremely close to the Eddington limit modified by rotation (Omega Gamma limit): for an inclination angle of 90 degrees, Gamma(Omega) greater than or similar to 1.0 for M(circle dot) less than or similar to 60. Based on evolutionary models and mass budget, we obtain an initial mass of similar to 100 M(circle dot) and a current mass of similar to 60-70 M(circle dot) for AG Car. Therefore, AG Car is close to, if not at, the Omega Gamma limit during visual minimum. Assuming M = 70 M(circle dot), we find that Gamma(Omega) decreases from 0.93 to 0.72 as AG Car expands toward visual maximum, suggesting that the star is not above the Eddington limit during maximum phases.

Permanent Genetic Resources added to Molecular Ecology Resources Database 1 May 2009-31 July 2009

This article documents the addition of 512 microsatellite marker loci and nine pairs of Single Nucleotide Polymorphism (SNP) sequencing primers to the Molecular Ecology Resources Database. Loci were developed for the following species: Alcippe morrisonia morrisonia, Bashania fangiana, Bashania fargesii, Chaetodon vagabundus, Colletes floralis, Coluber constrictor flaviventris, Coptotermes gestroi, Crotophaga major, Cyprinella lutrensis, Danaus plexippus, Fagus grandifolia, Falco tinnunculus, Fletcherimyia fletcheri, Hydrilla verticillata, Laterallus jamaicensis coturniculus, Leavenworthia alabamica, Marmosops incanus, Miichthys miiuy, Nasua nasua, Noturus exilis, Odontesthes bonariensis, Quadrula fragosa, Pinctada maxima, Pseudaletia separata, Pseudoperonospora cubensis, Podocarpus elatus, Portunus trituberculatus, Rhagoletis cerasi, Rhinella schneideri, Sarracenia alata, Skeletonema marinoi, Sminthurus viridis, Syngnathus abaster, Uroteuthis (Photololigo) chinensis, Verticillium dahliae, Wasmannia auropunctata, and Zygochlamys patagonica. These loci were cross-tested on the following species: Chaetodon baronessa, Falco columbarius, Falco eleonorae, Falco naumanni, Falco peregrinus, Falco subbuteo, Didelphis aurita, Gracilinanus microtarsus, Marmosops paulensis, Monodelphis Americana, Odontesthes hatcheri, Podocarpus grayi, Podocarpus lawrencei, Podocarpus smithii, Portunus pelagicus, Syngnathus acus, Syngnathus typhle,Uroteuthis (Photololigo) edulis, Uroteuthis (Photololigo) duvauceli and Verticillium albo-atrum. This article also documents the addition of nine sequencing primer pairs and sixteen allele specific primers or probes for Oncorhynchus mykiss and Oncorhynchus tshawytscha; these primers and assays were cross-tested in both species.

Comparing methods for sampling large- and medium-sized mammals: camera traps and track plots

Activities involving fauna monitoring are usually limited by the lack of resources; therefore, the choice of a proper and efficient methodology is fundamental to maximize the cost-benefit ratio. Both direct and indirect methods can be used to survey mammals, but the latter are preferred due to the difficulty to come in sight of and/or to capture the individuals, besides being cheaper. We compared the performance of two methods to survey medium and large-sized mammal: track plot recording and camera trapping, and their costs were assessed. At Jatai Ecological Station (S21 degrees 31`15 ``- W47 degrees 34`42 ``-Brazil) we installed ten camera traps along a dirt road directly in front of ten track plots, and monitored them for 10 days. We cleaned the plots, adjusted the cameras, and noted down the recorded species daily. Records taken by both methods showed they sample the local richness in different ways (Wilcoxon, T=231; p;;0.01). The track plot method performed better on registering individuals whereas camera trapping provided records which permitted more accurate species identification. The type of infra-red sensor camera used showed a strong bias towards individual body mass (R(2)=0.70; p=0.017), and the variable expenses of this method in a 10-day survey were estimated about 2.04 times higher compared to track plot method; however, in a long run camera trapping becomes cheaper than track plot recording. Concluding, track plot recording is good enough for quick surveys under a limited budget, and camera trapping is best for precise species identification and the investigation of species details, performing better for large animals. When used together, these methods can be complementary.

Autoimmunity in common variable immunodeficiency

immunodeficiency (CVID), the most common symptomatic primary immunodeficiency in adulthood. Different authors report high prevalences of autoimmune diseases in CVID, and several mechanisms have been proposed to explain this apparent paradox. Genetic predisposition, under current surveillance, innate and adaptive immunity deficiencies leading to persistent/recurrent infections, variable degrees of immune dysregulation, and possible failure in central and peripheral mechanisms of tolerance induction or maintenance may all contribute to increased autoimmunity. Conclusions Data on the clinical/immunological profile of affected patients and treatment are available mostly concerning autoimmune cytopenias, the most common autoimmune diseases in CVID. Treatment is based on conventional alternatives, in association with short experience with new agents, including rituximab and infliximab. Benefits of early immunoglobulin substitutive treatment and hypothetical premature predictors of autoimmunity are discussed as potential improvements to CVID patients` follow-up.

Leptin and the Immune Response An Active Player or an Innocent Bystander?

Leptin is involved in the control of energy storage by the body. Low serum leptin levels, as seen in starvation, are associated with impaired inflammatory T cell responses that can be reversed by exogenous leptin. Common variable immunodeficiency (CVID) is characterized by hypogammaglobulinemia and recurrent infections. Several defects in T cell function have also been described, and allergy, autoimmune disease, and lymphomas or other malignancies can be present. Previous studies in Brazilian CVID patients have shown that, in contrast with mononuclear cells from healthy controls, CVID cells cultured with phytohemagglutinin and added leptin increased the proliferative response and decreased activation-induced apoptosis. Interleukin (IL)-2 and especially IL-4 production also increased significantly, although the effects of exposure to leptin were not observed uniformly in CVID patients. The majority, however, responded in some degree, and some exhibited completely restored values of the four parameters. These remarkable results indicate leptin could be used to improve immune function in these patients. On the other hand, we found no specific correlation between serum leptin levels and the number of infectious events over a 24-month period, presence of autoimmunity, allergies, or cancer in these patients. The results suggest that the absolute value of serum leptin does not determine the clinical behavior of patients or responses to leptin in vitro. Of note is the divergence between serum leptin, response to leptin in vitro, and the presence of autoimmunity, indicating the need to identify the cellular and molecular players involved in the regulation of the immune response by leptin in CVID.

Slower rescue of ER homeostasis by the unfolded protein response pathway associated with common variable immunodeficiency

Common variable immunodeficiency (CVID) is a primary immunodeficiency characterized by hypogammaglobulinemia and recurrent infections. Herein we addressed the role of unfolded protein response (UPR) in the pathogenesis of the disease. Augmented unspliced X-box binding protein 1 (XBP-1) mRNA concurrent with co-localization of IgM and BiP/GRP78 were found in one CVID patient. At confocal microscopy analysis this patient`s cells were enlarged and failed to present the typical surface distribution of IgM, which accumulated within an abnormally expanded endoplasmic reticulum. Sequencing did not reveal any mutation on XBP-1, neither on IRE-1 alpha that could potentially prevent the splicing to occur. Analysis of spliced XBP-1, IRE-1 alpha and BiP messages after LPS or Brefeldin A treatment showed that, unlike healthy controls that respond to these endoplasmic reticulum (ER) stressors by presenting waves of transcription of these three genes, this patient`s cells presented lower rates of transcription, not reaching the same level of response of healthy subjects even after 48 h of ER stress. Treatment with DMSO rescued IgM and IgG secretion as well as the expression of spliced XBP-1. Our findings associate diminished splicing of XBP-1 mRNA with accumulation of IgM within the ER and lower rates of chaperone transcription, therefore providing a mechanism to explain the observed hypogammaglobulinemia. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Reduced frequency of CD4(+)CD25(HIGH)FOXP3(+) cells and diminished FOXP3 expression in patients with Common Variable Immunodeficiency: A link to autoimmunity?

Common Variable Immunodeficiency (CVID) is a primary immunodeficiency disease characterized by defective immunoglobulin production and often associated with autoimmunity. We used flow cytometry to analyze CD4(+)CD25(HIGH)FOXP3(+) T regulatory (Treg) cells and ask whether perturbations in their frequency in peripheral blood could underlie the high incidence of autoimmune disorders in CVID patients. In this study, we report for the first time that CVID patients with autoimmune disease have a significantly reduced frequency of CD4(+)CD25(HIGH)FOXP3(+) cells in their peripheral blood accompanied by a decreased intensity of FOXP3 expression. Notably, although CVID patients in whom autoimmunity was not diagnosed had a reduced frequency of CD4(+)CD25(HIGH)FOXP3(+) cells, FOXP3 expression levels did not differ from those in healthy controls. In conclusion, these data suggest compromised homeostasis of CD4(+)CD25(HIGH)FOXP3(+) cells in a subset of CVID patients with autoimmunity, and may implicate Treg cells in pathological mechanisms of CVID. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.