Nonlinear prediction based on score function

The linear prediction coding of speech is based in the assumption that the generation model is autoregresive. In this paper we propose a structure to cope with the nonlinear effects presents in the generation of the speech signal. This structure will consist of two stages, the first one will be a classical linear prediction filter, and the second one will model the residual signal by means of two nonlinearities between a linear filter. The coefficients of this filter are computed by means of a gradient search on the score function. This is done in order to deal with the fact that the probability distribution of the residual signal still is not gaussian. This fact is taken into account when the coefficients are computed by a ML estimate. The algorithm based on the minimization of a high-order statistics criterion, uses on-line estimation of the residue statistics and is based on blind deconvolution of Wiener systems [1]. Improvements in the experimental results with speech signals emphasize on the interest of this approach.

Prediction of Complications After Pancreaticoduodenectomy: Validation of a Postoperative Complication Score.

OBJECTIVES: Pancreatic surgery remains associated with important morbidity. Efforts are most commonly concentrated on decreasing postoperative morbidity, but early detection of patients at risk could be another valuable strategy. A simple prognostic score has recently been published. This study aimed to validate this score and discuss possible clinical implications. METHODS: From 2000 to 2012, 245 patients underwent a pancreaticoduodenectomy. Complications were graded according to the Dindo-Clavien Classification. The Braga score is based on American Society of Anesthesiologists score, pancreatic texture, Wirsung duct diameter, and blood loss. An overall risk score (0-15) can be calculated for each patient. Score discriminant power was calculated using a receiver operating characteristic curve. RESULTS: Major complications occurred in 31% of patients compared with 17% in Braga's data. Pancreatic texture and blood loss were independently statistically significant for increased morbidity. Areas under the curve were 0.95 and 0.99 for 4-risk categories and for individual scores, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The Braga score discriminates well between minor and major complications. Our validation suggests that it can be used as a prognostic tool for major complications after pancreaticoduodenectomy. The clinical implications, that is, whether postoperative treatment strategies should be adapted according to the patient's individual risk, remain to be elucidated.

Measurement Properties of the Smartphone-Based B-B Score in Current Shoulder Pathologies.

NlmCategory="UNASSIGNED">This study is aimed at the determination of the measurement properties of the shoulder function B-B Score measured with a smartphone. This score measures the symmetry between sides of a power-related metric for two selected movements, with 100% representing perfect symmetry. Twenty healthy participants, 20 patients with rotator cuff conditions, 23 with fractures, 22 with capsulitis, and 23 with shoulder instabilities were measured twice across a six-month interval using the B-B Score and shoulder function questionnaires. The discriminative power, responsiveness, diagnostic power, concurrent validity, minimal detectable change (MDC), minimal clinically important improvement (MCII), and patient acceptable symptom state (PASS) were evaluated. Significant differences with the control group and significant baseline-six-month differences were found for the rotator cuff condition, fracture, and capsulitis patient groups. The B-B Score was responsive and demonstrated excellent diagnostic power, except for shoulder instability. The correlations with clinical scores were generally moderate to high, but lower for instability. The MDC was 18.1%, the MCII was 25.2%, and the PASS was 77.6. No floor effect was observed. The B-B Score demonstrated excellent measurement properties in populations with rotator cuff conditions, proximal humerus fractures, and capsulitis, and can thus be used as a routine test to evaluate those patients.

Vid Z. Topelius jordfästning (en gammel koralmelodi)

Soitinnus: sekakuoro.

Discrete distributions when modeling the disability severity score of motor victims

Many European states apply score systems to evaluate the disability severity of non-fatal motor victims under the law of third-party liability. The score is a non-negative integer with an upper bound at 100 that increases with severity. It may be automatically converted into financial terms and thus also reflects the compensation cost for disability. In this paper, discrete regression models are applied to analyze the factors that influence the disability severity score of victims. Standard and zero-altered regression models are compared from two perspectives: an interpretation of the data generating process and the level of statistical fit. The results have implications for traffic safety policy decisions aimed at reducing accident severity. An application using data from Spain is provided.

External Validation of the Prestroke Independence, Sex, Age, National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (ISAN) Score for Predicting Stroke-Associated Pneumonia in the Athens Stroke Registry.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The Prestroke Independence, Sex, Age, National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (ISAN) score was developed recently for predicting stroke-associated pneumonia (SAP), one of the most common complications after stroke. The aim of the present study was to externally validate the ISAN score. METHODS: Data included in the Athens Stroke Registry between June 1992 and December 2011 were used for this analysis. Inclusion criteria were the availability of all ISAN score variables (prestroke independence, sex, age, National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score). Receiver operating characteristic curves and linear regression analyses were used to determine the discriminatory power of the score and to assess the correlation between actual and predicted pneumonia in the study population. Separate analyses were performed for patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS) and intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). RESULTS: The analysis included 3204 patients (AIS: 2732, ICH: 472). The ISAN score demonstrated excellent discrimination in patients with AIS (area under the curve [AUC]: .83 [95% confidence interval {CI}: .81-.85]). In the ICH group, the score was less effective (AUC: .69 [95% CI: .63-.74]). Higher-risk groups of ISAN score were associated with an increased relative risk of SAP; risk increase was more prominent in the AIS population. Predicted pneumonia correlated very well with actual pneumonia (AIS group: R(2) = .885; β-coefficient = .941, P < .001; ICH group: R(2) = .880, β-coefficient = .938, P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: In our external validation in the Athens Stroke Registry cohort, the ISAN score predicted SAP very accurately in AIS patients and demonstrated good discriminatory power in the ICH group. Further validation and assessment of clinical usefulness would strengthen the score's utility further.

Trabecular bone score in type 1 diabetes--a cross-sectional study.

UNLABELLED: Trabecular bone score (TBS) seems to provide additive value on BMD to identify individuals with prevalent fractures in T1D. TBS did not significantly differ between T1D patients and healthy controls, but TBS and HbA1c were independently associated with prevalent fractures in T1D. A TBS cutoff <1.42 reflected prevalent fractures with 91.7 % sensitivity and 43.2 % specificity. INTRODUCTION: Type 1 diabetes (T1D) increases the risk of osteoporotic fractures. TBS was recently proposed as an indirect measure of bone microarchitecture. This study aimed at investigating the TBS in T1D patients and healthy controls. Associations with prevalent fractures were tested. METHODS: One hundred nineteen T1D patients (59 males, 60 premenopausal females; mean age 43.4 ± 8.9 years) and 68 healthy controls matched for gender, age, and body mass index (BMI) were analyzed. The TBS was calculated in the lumbar region, based on two-dimensional (2D) projections of DXA assessments. RESULTS: TBS was 1.357 ± 0.129 in T1D patients and 1.389 ± 0.085 in controls (p = 0.075). T1D patients with prevalent fractures (n = 24) had a significantly lower TBS than T1D patients without fractures (1.309 ± 0.125 versus 1.370 ± 0.127, p = 0.04). The presence of fractures in T1D was associated with lower TBS (odds ratio = 0.024, 95 % confidence interval (CI) = 0.001-0.875; p = 0.042) but not with age or BMI. TBS and HbA1c were independently associated with fractures. The area-under-the curve (AUC) of TBS was similar to that of total hip BMD in discriminating T1D patients with or without prevalent fractures. In this set-up, a TBS cutoff <1.42 discriminated the presence of fractures with a sensitivity of 91.7 % and a specificity of 43.2 %. CONCLUSIONS: TBS values are lower in T1D patients with prevalent fractures, suggesting an alteration of bone strength in this subgroup of patients. Reliable TBS cutoffs for the prediction of fracture risk in T1D need to be determined in larger prospective studies.

Fast and Rigorous Computation of Gene and Pathway Scores from SNP-Based Summary Statistics.

Integrating single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) p-values from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) across genes and pathways is a strategy to improve statistical power and gain biological insight. Here, we present Pascal (Pathway scoring algorithm), a powerful tool for computing gene and pathway scores from SNP-phenotype association summary statistics. For gene score computation, we implemented analytic and efficient numerical solutions to calculate test statistics. We examined in particular the sum and the maximum of chi-squared statistics, which measure the strongest and the average association signals per gene, respectively. For pathway scoring, we use a modified Fisher method, which offers not only significant power improvement over more traditional enrichment strategies, but also eliminates the problem of arbitrary threshold selection inherent in any binary membership based pathway enrichment approach. We demonstrate the marked increase in power by analyzing summary statistics from dozens of large meta-studies for various traits. Our extensive testing indicates that our method not only excels in rigorous type I error control, but also results in more biologically meaningful discoveries.

Predictors of trabecular bone score in school children.

UNLABELLED: Trabecular bone score (TBS) is a DXA-based tool that assesses bone texture and reflects microarchitecture. It has been shown to independently predict the risk of osteoporotic fracture in the elderly. In this study, we investigated the determinants of TBS in adolescents. INTRODUCTION: TBS is a gray-level textural measurement derived from lumbar spine DXA images. It appears to be an index of bone microarchitecture that provides skeletal information additional to the standard BMD measurement and clinical risk factors. Our objectives were to characterize the relationship between TBS and both age and pubertal stages and identify other predictors in adolescents. METHODS: We assessed TBS by reanalyzing spine DXA scan images obtained from 170 boys and 168 girls, age range 10-17 years, gathered at study entry and at 1 year, using TBS software. The results are from post hoc analyses obtained using data gathered from a prospective randomized vitamin D trial. Predictors of TBS were assessed using t test or Pearson's correlation and adjusted using regression analyses, as applicable. RESULTS: The mean age of the study population was 13.2 ± 2.1 years, similar between boys and girls. Age, height, weight, sun exposure, spine BMC and BMD, body BMC and BMD, and lean and fat mass are all significantly correlated with TBS at baseline (r = 0.20-0.75, p < 0.035). Correlations mostly noted in late-pubertal stages. However, after adjustment for BMC, age remained an independent predictor only in girls. CONCLUSIONS: In univariate exploratory analyses, age and pubertal stages were determinants of TBS in adolescents. Studies to investigate predictors of TBS and to investigate its value as a prognostic tool of bone fragility in the pediatric population are needed.

A prognostic score to identify low-risk outpatients with acute deep vein thrombosis in the upper extremity.

BACKGROUND: No studies have identified which patients with upper-extremity deep vein thrombosis (DVT) are at low risk for adverse events within the first week of therapy. METHODS: We used data from Registro Informatizado de la Enfermedad TromboEmbólica to explore in patients with upper-extremity DVT a prognostic score that correctly identified patients with lower limb DVT at low risk for pulmonary embolism, major bleeding, or death within the first week. RESULTS: As of December 2014, 1135 outpatients with upper-extremity DVT were recruited. Of these, 515 (45%) were treated at home. During the first week, three patients (0.26%) experienced pulmonary embolism, two (0.18%) had major bleeding, and four (0.35%) died. We assigned 1 point to patients with chronic heart failure, creatinine clearance levels 30-60 mL min(-1) , recent bleeding, abnormal platelet count, recent immobility, or cancer without metastases; 2 points to those with metastatic cancer; and 3 points to those with creatinine clearance levels < 30 mL min(-1) . Overall, 759 (67%) patients scored ≤ 1 point and were considered to be at low risk. The rate of the composite outcome within the first week was 0.26% (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.004-0.87) in patients at low risk and 1.86% (95% CI 0.81-3.68) in the remaining patients. C-statistics was 0.73 (95% CI 0.57-0.88). Net reclassification improvement was 22%, and integrated discrimination improvement was 0.0055. CONCLUSIONS: Using six easily available variables, we identified outpatients with upper-extremity DVT at low risk for adverse events within the first week. These data may help to safely treat more patients at home.

Use of the nutritional risk score by surgeons and nutritionists.

BACKGROUND: The Nutritional Risk Score (NRS) is a validated tool to identify patients who should benefit of nutritional interventions. Nutritional screening however has not yet been widely adopted by surgeons. Furthermore, the question about reliability of nutritional assessment performed by surgeons is still unanswered. METHODS: Data was obtained from a recent randomised trial including 146 patients with an NRS ≥3 as assessed by the surgeons. Additional detailed nutritional assessment was performed for all patients by nutritional specialists and entered prospectively in a dedicated database. In this retrospective, surgeons' scoring of NRS and its components was compared to the assessment by nutritionists (considered as gold standard). RESULTS: Prospective NRS scores by surgeons and nutritionists were available for 141 patients (97%). Surgeons calculated a NRS of 7, 6, 5, 4 and 3 in 2, 8, 38, 21 and 72 patients respectively. Nutritionists calculated a NRS of 6, 5, 4, 3 and 2 in 8, 26, 47, 57, 3 patients, respectively. Surgeons' assessment was entirely correct in 56 patients (40%), while at least the final score was consistent in 63 patients (45%). Surgeons overrated the NRS in 21% of patients and underestimated the score in 29%. Evaluation of the nutritional status showed most of the discrepancies (54%). CONCLUSION: Surgeon's assessment of nutritional status is modest at best. Close collaboration with nutritional specialists should be recommended in order to avoid misdiagnosis and under-treatment of patients at nutritional risk.