Cluster recognition in spatial-temporal sequences: The case of forest fires

Forest fire sequences can be modelled as a stochastic point process where events are characterized by their spatial locations and occurrence in time. Cluster analysis permits the detection of the space/time pattern distribution of forest fires. These analyses are useful to assist fire-managers in identifying risk areas, implementing preventive measures and conducting strategies for an efficient distribution of the firefighting resources. This paper aims to identify hot spots in forest fire sequences by means of the space-time scan statistics permutation model (STSSP) and a geographical information system (GIS) for data and results visualization. The scan statistical methodology uses a scanning window, which moves across space and time, detecting local excesses of events in specific areas over a certain period of time. Finally, the statistical significance of each cluster is evaluated through Monte Carlo hypothesis testing. The case study is the forest fires registered by the Forest Service in Canton Ticino (Switzerland) from 1969 to 2008. This dataset consists of geo-referenced single events including the location of the ignition points and additional information. The data were aggregated into three sub-periods (considering important preventive legal dispositions) and two main ignition-causes (lightning and anthropogenic causes). Results revealed that forest fire events in Ticino are mainly clustered in the southern region where most of the population is settled. Our analysis uncovered local hot spots arising from extemporaneous arson activities. Results regarding the naturally-caused fires (lightning fires) disclosed two clusters detected in the northern mountainous area.

The effect of combined polymorphisms in chemokines and chemokine receptors on the clinical course of HIV-1 infection in a Brazilian population

Polymorphisms in genes that encode chemokines or their receptors can modulate susceptibility to human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection and disease progression. The objective of this study was to assess the frequency of polymorphisms CCR5-Δ32, CCR2-64I, CCR5-59029A and SDF1-3'A and their role in the course of HIV infection in a Southern Brazilian population. Clinical data were obtained from 249 patients for an average period of 6.4 years and genotypes were determined by standard polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and PCR-restriction fragment length polymorphism. Survival analyses were conducted for three outcomes: CD4+ T-cell counts below 200 cells/µL, acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) or death. The frequency of the polymorphisms CCR5-Δ32, CCR2-64I, CCR5-59029A and SDF1-3'A were 0.024, 0.113, 0.487 and 0.207, respectively. CCR5-Δ32 was associated with a reduction in the risk for CD4+ T-cell depletion and with an increased risk for death after AIDS diagnosis. CCR2-64I was associated with a reduction in the risk for developing AIDS. SDF1-3'A was also associated with decreased risk for AIDS, but its effect was only evident when CCR2-64I was present as well. These results highlight the possibility of using these markers as indicators for the prognosis of disease progression and provide evidence for the importance of analysing the effects of gene polymorphisms in a combined fashion.

Long-term risk of incident type 2 diabetes and measures of overall and regional obesity: the EPIC-InterAct case-cohort study

BACKGROUND Waist circumference (WC) is a simple and reliable measure of fat distribution that may add to the prediction of type 2 diabetes (T2D), but previous studies have been too small to reliably quantify the relative and absolute risk of future diabetes by WC at different levels of body mass index (BMI). METHODS AND FINDINGS The prospective InterAct case-cohort study was conducted in 26 centres in eight European countries and consists of 12,403 incident T2D cases and a stratified subcohort of 16,154 individuals from a total cohort of 340,234 participants with 3.99 million person-years of follow-up. We used Prentice-weighted Cox regression and random effects meta-analysis methods to estimate hazard ratios for T2D. Kaplan-Meier estimates of the cumulative incidence of T2D were calculated. BMI and WC were each independently associated with T2D, with WC being a stronger risk factor in women than in men. Risk increased across groups defined by BMI and WC; compared to low normal weight individuals (BMI 18.5-22.4 kg/m(2)) with a low WC (<94/80 cm in men/women), the hazard ratio of T2D was 22.0 (95% confidence interval 14.3; 33.8) in men and 31.8 (25.2; 40.2) in women with grade 2 obesity (BMI≥35 kg/m(2)) and a high WC (>102/88 cm). Among the large group of overweight individuals, WC measurement was highly informative and facilitated the identification of a subgroup of overweight people with high WC whose 10-y T2D cumulative incidence (men, 70 per 1,000 person-years; women, 44 per 1,000 person-years) was comparable to that of the obese group (50-103 per 1,000 person-years in men and 28-74 per 1,000 person-years in women). CONCLUSIONS WC is independently and strongly associated with T2D, particularly in women, and should be more widely measured for risk stratification. If targeted measurement is necessary for reasons of resource scarcity, measuring WC in overweight individuals may be an effective strategy, since it identifies a high-risk subgroup of individuals who could benefit from individualised preventive action.

Prospective, multicenter validation of prediction scores for major bleeding in elderly patients with venous thromboembolism.

BACKGROUND: The Outpatient Bleeding Risk Index (OBRI) and the Kuijer, RIETE and Kearon scores are clinical prognostic scores for bleeding in patients receiving oral anticoagulants for venous thromboembolism (VTE). We prospectively compared the performance of these scores in elderly patients with VTE. METHODS: In a prospective multicenter Swiss cohort study, we studied 663 patients aged ≥ 65 years with acute VTE. The outcome was a first major bleeding at 90 days. We classified patients into three categories of bleeding risk (low, intermediate and high) according to each score and dichotomized patients as high vs. low or intermediate risk. We calculated the area under the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve, positive predictive values and likelihood ratios for each score. RESULTS: Overall, 28 out of 663 patients (4.2%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.8-6.0%) had a first major bleeding within 90 days. According to different scores, the rate of major bleeding varied from 1.9% to 2.1% in low-risk, from 4.2% to 5.0% in intermediate-risk and from 3.1% to 6.6% in high-risk patients. The discriminative power of the scores was poor to moderate, with areas under the ROC curve ranging from 0.49 to 0.60 (P = 0.21). The positive predictive values and positive likelihood ratios were low and varied from 3.1% to 6.6% and from 0.72 to 1.59, respectively. CONCLUSION: In elderly patients with VTE, existing bleeding risk scores do not have sufficient accuracy and power to discriminate between patients with VTE who are at a high risk of short-term major bleeding and those who are not.

Malnutrition prevalence in hospitalized elderly diabetic patients.

Background & aims: Malnutrition prevalence is unknown among elderly patients with diabetes mellitus. Our objectives were to determine malnutrition prevalence in elderly in patients with diabetes, and to describe their impact on prognosis. Methods: An observational multicenter study was conducted in 35 Spanish hospitals. Malnutrition was assessed with the Mini Nutritional Assessment (MNA) tool. Patients were followed until discharge. Results: 1,090 subjects were included (78 ± 7.1 years; 50% males). 39.1% had risk of malnutrition, and 21.2% malnutrition. A 15.5% of the malnourished subjects and 31.9 % of those at risk had a BMI =?30 kg/m2. In multivariate analysis, female gender (OR = 1.38; 95% CI: 1.19- 1.11), age (OR = 1.04; 95% CI: 1.02-1.06) and presence of diabetic complications (OR = 1.97; 95% CI: 1.52-2.56) were associated with malnutrition. Length of stay (LOS) was longer in at-risk and malnourished patients than in well-nourished (12.7 ± 9.9 and 15.7 ± 12.8 days vs 10.7 ± 9.9 days; p < 0.0001). After adjustment by age and gender, MNA score (OR = 0.895; 95% CI 0.814-0.985) and albumin (OR = 0.441; 95% CI 0.212-0.915) were associated with mortality. MNA score was associated with the probability of home discharge (OR = 1.150; 95% CI 1.084-1.219). Conclusion: A high prevalence of malnutrition among elderly in patients with diabetes was observed, regardless of BMI. Malnutrition, albumin, and MNA score were related to LOS, mortality and home discharge.

Effects of a lifestyle intervention on adiposity and fitness in overweight or low fit preschoolers (Ballabeina).

OBJECTIVE: Overweight (OW) and low fit children represent cardiovascular high-risk groups. A multidimensional school-based lifestyle intervention performed in 652 preschoolers reduced skinfold thickness and waist circumference, and improved fitness, but did not affect BMI. The objective of this study is to examine whether the intervention was equally effective in OW (≥90th national percentile) and/or low fit (lowest sex- and age-adjusted quartile of aerobic fitness) children compared to their normal weight and normal fit counterparts. DESIGN AND METHODS: Cluster randomized controlled single blinded trial, conducted in 2008/09 in 40 randomly selected preschool classes in Switzerland. The intervention included a playful physical activity program and lessons on nutrition, media use and sleeps. Primary outcomes were BMI and aerobic fitness; secondary outcomes included sum of four skinfolds, waist circumference and motor agility. Modification of intervention effects by BMI-group and fitness-group was tested by interaction terms. RESULTS: Compared to their counterparts, OW children (n = 130) had more beneficial effects on waist circumference (p for interaction = 0.001) and low fit children (n = 154) more beneficial effects on all adiposity outcomes (p for interaction ≤0.03). The intervention effects on both fitness outcomes were not modified by BMI- or fitness-group (all p for interaction ≥0.2). Average intervention effect sizes for BMI were -0.12, -0.05, -0.26 and -0.02 kg/m(2) and for aerobic fitness were 0.40, 0.30, 0.12 and 0.36 stages for OW, normal weight, low fit and normal fit children, respectively. Conclusions: This multidimensional intervention was equally and for some adiposity measures even more effective in high-risk preschoolers and represents a promising option for these children.

Prophylactic isolated limb perfusion for localized, high-risk limb melanoma: results of a multicenter randomized phase III trial. European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer Malignant Melanoma Cooperative Group Protocol 18832, the World Health Organization Melanoma Program Trial 15, and the North American Perfusion Group Southwest Oncology Group-8593.

PURPOSE: Patients with primary cutaneous melanoma > or = 1.5 mm in thickness are at high risk of having regional micrometastases at the time of initial surgical treatment. A phase III international study was designed to evaluate whether prophylactic isolated limb perfusion (ILP) could prevent regional recurrence and influence survival. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A total of 832 assessable patients from 16 centers entered the study; 412 were randomized to wide excision (WE) only and 420 to WE plus ILP with melphalan and mild hyperthermia. Median age was 50 years, 68% of patients were female, 79% of melanomas were located on a lower limb, and 47% had a thickness > or = 3 mm. RESULTS: Median follow-up duration is 6.4 years. There was a trend for a longer disease-free interval (DFI) after ILP. The difference was significant for patients who did not undergo elective lymph node dissection (ELND). The impact of ILP was clearly on the occurrence-as first site of progression - of in-transit metastases (ITM), which were reduced from 6.6% to 3.3%, and of regional lymph node (RLN) metastases, with a reduction from 16.7% to 12.6%. There was no benefit from ILP in terms of time to distant metastasis or survival. Side effects were higher after ILP, but transient in most patients. There were two amputations for limb toxicity after ILP. CONCLUSION: Prophylactic ILP with melphalan cannot be recommended as an adjunct to standard surgery in high-risk primary limb melanoma.

RNA interference screening identifies a novel role for autocrine fibroblast growth factor signaling in neuroblastoma chemoresistance.

Chemotherapeutic drug resistance is one of the major causes for treatment failure in high-risk neuroblastoma (NB), the most common extra cranial solid tumor in children. Poor prognosis is typically associated with MYCN amplification. Here, we utilized a loss-of-function kinome-wide RNA interference screen to identify genes that cause cisplatin sensitization. We identified fibroblast growth factor receptor 2 (FGFR2) as an important determinant of cisplatin resistance. Pharmacological inhibition of FGFR2 confirmed the importance of this kinase in NB chemoresistance. Silencing of FGFR2 sensitized NB cells to cisplatin-induced apoptosis, which was regulated by the downregulation of the anti-apoptotic proteins BCL2 and BCLXL. Mechanistically, FGFR2 was shown to activate protein kinase C-δ to induce BCL2 expression. FGFR2, as well as the ligand fibroblast growth factor-2, were consistently expressed in primary NB and NB cell lines, indicating the presence of an autocrine loop. Expression analysis revealed that FGFR2 correlates with MYCN amplification and with advanced stage disease, demonstrating the clinical relevance of FGFR2 in NB. These findings suggest a novel role for FGFR2 in chemoresistance and provide a rational to combine pharmacological inhibitors against FGFR2 with chemotherapeutic agents for the treatment of NB.

Interpretation and use of FRAX in clinical practice.

The introduction of the WHO FRAX® algorithms has facilitated the assessment of fracture risk on the basis of fracture probability. Its use in fracture risk prediction has strengths, but also limitations of which the clinician should be aware and are the focus of this review INTRODUCTION: The International Osteoporosis Foundation (IOF) and the International Society for Clinical Densitometry (ISCD) appointed a joint Task Force to develop resource documents in order to make recommendations on how to improve FRAX and better inform clinicians who use FRAX. The Task Force met in November 2010 for 3 days to discuss these topics which form the focus of this review. METHODS: This study reviews the resource documents and joint position statements of ISCD and IOF. RESULTS: Details on the clinical risk factors currently used in FRAX are provided, and the reasons for the exclusion of others are provided. Recommendations are made for the development of surrogate models where country-specific FRAX models are not available. CONCLUSIONS: The wish list of clinicians for the modulation of FRAX is large, but in many instances, these wishes cannot presently be fulfilled; however, an explanation and understanding of the reasons may be helpful in translating the information provided by FRAX into clinical practice.

Disaster Risk, Livelihoods and Natural Barriers, Strengthening Decision-Making Tools for Disaster Risk Reduction: A case study from northern Pakistan

The goal of this interdisciplinary study is to better understand the land use factors that increase vulnerability of mountain areas in northern Pakistan. The study will identify and analyse the damages and losses caused by the October 2005 earthquake in two areas of the same valley: one "low-risk" watershed with sound natural resources management, the other, "high-risk" in an ecologically degraded watershed. Secondly, the study will examine natural and man-made causes of secondary hazards in the study area, especially landslides; and third it will evaluate the cost of the earthquake damage in the study areas on the livelihoods of local communities and the sub-regional economy. There are few interdisciplinary studies to have correlated community land use practices, resources management, and disaster risk reduction in high-risk mountain areas. By better understanding these linkages, development- humanitarian- and donor agencies focused on disaster reduction can improve their risk reduction programs for mountainous regions.

Randomized observation periods for the compound Poisson risk model: Dividends

In the framework of the classical compound Poisson process in collective risk theory, we study a modification of the horizontal dividend barrier strategy by introducing random observation times at which dividends can be paid and ruin can be observed. This model contains both the continuous-time and the discrete-time risk model as a limit and represents a certain type of bridge between them which still enables the explicit calculation of moments of total discounted dividend payments until ruin. Numerical illustrations for several sets of parameters are given and the effect of random observation times on the performance of the dividend strategy is studied.

Influence of a lifestyle intervention in preschool children on physiological and psychological parameters (Ballabeina): study design of a cluster randomized controlled trial.

Childhood obesity and physical inactivity are increasing dramatically worldwide. Children of low socioeconomic status and/or children of migrant background are especially at risk. In general, the overall effectiveness of school-based programs on health-related outcomes has been disappointing. A special gap exists for younger children and in high risk groups. This paper describes the rationale, design, curriculum, and evaluation of a multicenter preschool randomized intervention study conducted in areas with a high migrant population in two out of 26 Swiss cantons. Twenty preschool classes in the German (canton St. Gallen) and another 20 in the French (canton Vaud) part of Switzerland were separately selected and randomized to an intervention and a control arm by the use of opaque envelopes. The multidisciplinary lifestyle intervention aimed to increase physical activity and sleep duration, to reinforce healthy nutrition and eating behaviour, and to reduce media use. According to the ecological model, it included children, their parents and the teachers. The regular teachers performed the majority of the intervention and were supported by a local health promoter. The intervention included physical activity lessons, adaptation of the built infrastructure; promotion of regional extracurricular physical activity; playful lessons about nutrition, media use and sleep, funny homework cards and information materials for teachers and parents. It lasted one school year. Baseline and post-intervention evaluations were performed in both arms. Primary outcome measures included BMI and aerobic fitness (20 m shuttle run test). Secondary outcomes included total (skinfolds, bioelectrical impedance) and central (waist circumference) body fat, motor abilities (obstacle course, static and dynamic balance), physical activity and sleep duration (accelerometry and questionnaires), nutritional behaviour and food intake, media use, quality of life and signs of hyperactivity (questionnaires), attention and spatial working memory ability (two validated tests). Researchers were blinded to group allocation. The purpose of this paper is to outline the design of a school-based multicenter cluster randomized, controlled trial aiming to reduce body mass index and to increase aerobic fitness in preschool children in culturally different parts of Switzerland with a high migrant population. Trial Registration: (clinicaltrials.gov) NCT00674544.

Maternal side-effects after multiple courses of antenatal corticosteroids (MACS): the three-month follow-up of women in the randomized controlled trial of MACS for preterm birth study.

OBJECTIVE: A single course of antenatal corticosteroids (ACS) is associated with a reduction in respiratory distress syndrome and neonatal death. Multiple Courses of Antenatal Corticosteroids Study (MACS), a study involving 1858 women, was a multicentre randomized placebo-controlled trial of multiple courses of ACS, given every 14 days until 33+6 weeks or birth, whichever came first. The primary outcome of the study, a composite of neonatal mortality and morbidity, was similar for the multiple ACS and placebo groups (12.9% vs. 12.5%), but infants exposed to multiple courses of ACS weighed less, were shorter, and had smaller head circumferences. Thus for women who remain at increased risk of preterm birth, multiple courses of ACS (every 14 days) are not recommended. Chronic use of corticosteroids is associated with numerous side effects including weight gain and depression. The aim of this postpartum assessment was to ascertain if multiple courses of ACS were associated with maternal side effects. METHODS: Three months postpartum, women who participated in MACS were asked to complete a structured questionnaire that asked about maternal side effects of corticosteroid use during MACS and included the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale. Women were also asked to evaluate their study participation. RESULTS: Of the 1858 women randomized, 1712 (92.1%) completed the postpartum questionnaire. There were no significant differences in the risk of maternal side effects between the two groups. Large numbers of women met the criteria for postpartum depression (14.1% in the ACS vs. 16.0% in the placebo group). Most women (94.1%) responded that they would participate in the trial again. CONCLUSION: In pregnancy, corticosteroids are given to women for fetal lung maturation and for the treatment of various maternal diseases. In this international multicentre randomized controlled trial, multiple courses of ACS (every 14 days) were not associated with maternal side effects, and the majority of women responded that they would participate in such a study again.

Long-term follow-up of European APL 2000 trial, evaluating the role of cytarabine combined with ATRA and Daunorubicin in the treatment of nonelderly APL patients.

All-trans retinoic acid (ATRA) combined to anthracycline-based chemotherapy is the reference treatment of acute promyelocytic leukemia (APL). Whereas, in high-risk patients, cytarabine (AraC) is often considered useful in combination with anthracycline to prevent relapse, its usefulness in standard-risk APL is uncertain. In APL 2000 trial, patients with standard-risk APL [i.e., with baseline white blood cell (WBC) count <10,000/mm(3) ] were randomized between treatment with ATRA with Daunorubicin (DNR) and AraC (AraC group) and ATRA with DNR but without AraC (no AraC group). All patients subsequently received combined maintenance treatment. The trial had been prematurely terminated due to significantly more relapses in the no AraC group (J Clin Oncol, (24) 2006, 5703-10), but follow-up was still relatively short. With long-term follow-up (median 103 months), the 7-year cumulative incidence of relapses was 28.6% in the no AraC group, compared to 12.9% in the AraC group (P = 0.0065). In standard-risk APL, at least when the anthracycline used is DNR, avoiding AraC may lead to an increased risk of relapse suggesting that the need for AraC is regimen-dependent.

Prediction of myocardial infarction size using the SYNTAX score in patients treated with primary percutaneous coronary intervention for acute ST- segment elevation myocardial infarction

Objectives The relevance of the SYNTAX score for the particular case of patients with acute ST- segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PPCI)  has previously only been studied in the setting of post hoc analysis of large prospective randomized clinical trials. A "real-life" population approach has never been explored before. The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of the SYNTAX score for the prediction of the myocardial infarction size, estimated by the creatin-kinase (CK) peak value, using the SYNTAX score in patients treated with primary coronary intervention for acute ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction. Methods The primary endpoint of the study was myocardial infarction size as measured by the CK peak value. The SYNTAX score was calculated retrospectively in 253 consecutive patients with acute ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PPCI) in a large tertiary referral center in Switzerland, between January 2009 and June 2010. Linear regression analysis was performed to compare myocardial infarction size with the SYNTAX score. This same endpoint was then stratified according to SYNTAX score tertiles: low <22 (n=178), intermediate [22-32] (n=60), and high >=33 (n=15). Results There were no significant differences in terms of clinical characteristics between the three groups. When stratified according to the SYNTAX score tertiles, average CK peak values of 1985 (low<22), 3336 (intermediate [22-32]) and 3684 (high>=33) were obtained with a p-value <0.0001. Bartlett's test for equal variances between the three groups was 9.999 (p-value <0.0067). A moderate Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient (r=0.4074) with a high statistical significance level (p-value <0.0001) was found. The coefficient of determination (R^2=0.1660) showed that approximately 17% of the variation of CK peak value (myocardial infarction size) could be explained by the SYNTAX score, i.e. by the coronary disease complexity. Conclusion In an all-comers population, the SYNTAX score is an additional tool in predicting myocardial infarction size in patients treated with primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PPCI). The stratification of patients in different risk groups according to SYNTAX enables to identify a high-risk population that may warrant particular patient care.