Reporting and managing risk:a look at current practice at Tesco, RBS, local and central government

These case studies from CIMA highlight the need to embed risk management within more easily understood behaviours, consistent with the overall organisational culture. In each case, some form of internal audit team provides either an oversight function or acts as an expert link in that feedback loop. Frontline staff, managers and specialists should be completely aligned on risk, in part just to ensure that there is a consistency of approach. They should understand instinctively that good performance includes good risk management. Tesco has continued to thrive during the recession and remains a robust and efficient group of businesses despite the emergence of potential threats around consumer spending and the supply chain. RBS, by contrast, has suffered catastrophic and very public failures of risk management despite a large in-house function and stiff regulation of risk controls. Birmingham City Council, like all local authorities, is adapting to more commercial modes of operation and is facing diverse threats and opportunities emerging as a result of social change. And DCMS, like many other public sector organisations, has to handle an incredibly complex network of delivery partners within the context of a relatively recent overhaul of central government risk management processes. Key Findings: •Risk management is no longer solely a financial discipline, nor is it simply a concern for the internal control function. •Where organisations retain a discrete risk management cadre – often specialists at monitoring and evaluating a range of risks – their success is dependent on embedding risk awareness in the wider culture of the enterprise. •Risk management is most successful when it is explicitly linked to operational performance. •Clear leadership, specific goals, excellent influencing skills and open-mindedness to potential threats and opportunities are essential for effective risk management. •Bureaucratic processes and systems can hamper good risk management – either as a result of a ‘box-ticking mentality’ or because managers and staff believe they do not need to consider risk themselves.

On the Lp-Norm Regression Models for Estimating Value-at-Risk

Analysis of risk measures associated with price series data movements and its predictions are of strategic importance in the financial markets as well as to policy makers in particular for short- and longterm planning for setting up economic growth targets. For example, oilprice risk-management focuses primarily on when and how an organization can best prevent the costly exposure to price risk. Value-at-Risk (VaR) is the commonly practised instrument to measure risk and is evaluated by analysing the negative/positive tail of the probability distributions of the returns (profit or loss). In modelling applications, least-squares estimation (LSE)-based linear regression models are often employed for modeling and analyzing correlated data. These linear models are optimal and perform relatively well under conditions such as errors following normal or approximately normal distributions, being free of large size outliers and satisfying the Gauss-Markov assumptions. However, often in practical situations, the LSE-based linear regression models fail to provide optimal results, for instance, in non-Gaussian situations especially when the errors follow distributions with fat tails and error terms possess a finite variance. This is the situation in case of risk analysis which involves analyzing tail distributions. Thus, applications of the LSE-based regression models may be questioned for appropriateness and may have limited applicability. We have carried out the risk analysis of Iranian crude oil price data based on the Lp-norm regression models and have noted that the LSE-based models do not always perform the best. We discuss results from the L1, L2 and L∞-norm based linear regression models. ACM Computing Classification System (1998): B.1.2, F.1.3, F.2.3, G.3, J.2.

Balancing push and pull information management within the supply chain

The aim of this paper is to explore the management of information in an aerospace manufacturer's supply chain by analysing supply chain disruption risks. The social network perspective will be used to examine the flows of information in the supply chain. The examination of information flows will also be explored in terms of push and pull information management. The supply chain risk management (SCRM) strategy is to assess the management of information that allows companies to gather information which will allow them to mitigate that risk before any disruption to the supply chain occurs. There is a shortage of models in analysing the supply chain risk associated with information flows, possibly due to the omission of appropriate modelling techniques in this area (Tang and Nurmaya, 2011). This paper uses an exploratory case study consisting of a multi method qualitative approach using fifteen interviews and four focus groups.

Interactively developed capabilities:evidence from dyadic servitization relationships

Purpose – The paper challenges the focal firm perspective of much resource/capability research, identifying how a dyadic perspective facilitates identification of capabilities required for servitization. Design/methodology/approach – Exploratory study consisting of seven dyadic relationships in five sectors. Findings – An additional dimension of capabilities should be recognised; whether they are developed independently or interactively (with another actor). The following examples of interactively developed capabilities are identified: knowledge development, where partners interactively communicate to understand capabilities; service enablement, manufacturers work with suppliers and customers to support delivery of new services; service development, partners interact to optimise performance of existing services; risk management, customers work with manufacturers to manage risks of product acquisition/operation. Six propositions were developed to articulate these findings. Research implications/limitations – Interactively developed capabilities are created when two or more actors interact to create value. Interactively developed capabilities do not just reside within one firm and, therefore, cannot be a source of competitive advantage for one firm alone. Many of the capabilities required for servitization are interactive, yet have received little research attention. The study does not provide an exhaustive list of interactively developed capabilities, but demonstrates their existence in manufacturer/supplier and manufacturer/customer dyads. Practical implications – Manufacturers need to understand how to develop capabilities interactively to create competitive advantage and value and identify other actors with whom these capabilities can be developed. Originality/value – Previous research has focused on relational capabilities within a focal firm. This study extends existing theories to include interactively developed capabilities. The paper proposes that interactivity is a key dimension of actors’ complementary capabilities.

Development of risk based treatability and engineering measures for reducing exposure to lead contaminated media in the Miami inner city, Florida

A major consequence of contamination at the local level’s population as it relates to environmental health and environmental engineering is childhood lead poisoning. Environmental contamination is one of the pressing environmental concerns facing the world today. Current approaches often focus on large contaminated industrial size sites that are designated by regulatory agencies for site remediation. Prior to this study, there were no known published studies conducted at the local and smaller scale, such as neighborhoods, where often much of the contamination is present to remediate. An environmental health study of local lead-poisoning data in Liberty City, Little Haiti and eastern Little Havana in Miami-Dade County, Florida accounted for a disproportionately high number of the county’s reported childhood lead poisoning cases. An engineering system was developed and designed for a comprehensive risk management methodology that is distinctively applicable to the geographical and environmental conditions of Miami-Dade County, Florida. Furthermore, a scientific approach for interpreting environmental health concerns, while involving detailed environmental engineering control measures and methods for site remediation in contained media was developed for implementation. Test samples were obtained from residents and sites in those specific communities in Miami-Dade County, Florida (Gasana and Chamorro 2002). Currently lead does not have an Oral Assessment, Inhalation Assessment, and Oral Slope Factor; variables that are required to run a quantitative risk assessment. However, various institutional controls from federal agencies’ standards and regulation for contaminated lead in media yield adequate maximum concentration limits (MCLs). For this study an MCL of .0015 (mg/L) was used. A risk management approach concerning contaminated media involving lead demonstrates that the linkage of environmental health and environmental engineering can yield a feasible solution.

Managing Risk: Identifying and Controlling Losses and Assuming Risks From Perils

Financial survival in the hotel and restaurant business can depend upon a mastery of the basic principles of risk management. This article explains the series of steps leading to the successful implementation of the risk management techniques most appropriate for a given hotel or restaurant.

Proposta de modelo de gestão de riscos para uma IFES visando a realização de auditoria baseada em riscos

Organizations are susceptible to the occurrence of many events that may affect the achievement of their objectives. As a result, Brazilian Public Administration supervisory bodies have required institutions to adopt risk management policies. Given the large number of recommendations issued by Federal Audit Court (TCU) to various Federal Institutions of Higher Education (IFES) in this area, it is proposed a risk management model for Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte (UFRN). This is an applied, exploratory and qualitative study. Regarding to technical procedures, it is characterized as documentary analysis, bibliographical research, case study and action research. The bibliographical research was used to support the elaboration of the Risk Management Guide for Federal Institutions of Higher Education (GERIFES). The documentary analysis, in turn, was used with the aim of knowing the organizational structure and the university´s macroprocesses. The author works in the university internal auditing department and shares the same problem. This characterizes the work as an action research. The case study supported both the elaboration of the guide and the simulation of the specific functionality for the university information system, demonstrated through the User Manual Module "Risk Management" proposed for the Integrated System of Property, Administration and Contracts (SIPAC). This manual has been prepared in order to facilitate the use of this tool if it will be incorporated into the university information system. As research results, a risk management model for UFRN was elaborated and a simulation of an informational tool, which is able to manage risks related to events that may affect the achievement of institutional objectives, was provided to the university administration.

Utilizing ICT to prevent loneliness and social isolation of the elderly. A literature review

Ageing of the population is a worldwide phenomenon. Numerous ICT-based solutions have been developed for elderly care but mainly connected to the physiological and nursing aspects in services for the elderly. Social work is a profession that should pay attention to the comprehensive wellbeing and social needs of the elderly. Many people experience loneliness and depression in their old age, either as a result of living alone or due to a lack of close family ties and reduced connections with their culture of origin, which results in an inability to participate actively in community activities (Singh & Misra, 2009). Participation in society would enhance the quality of life. With the development of information technology, the use of technology in social work practice has risen dramatically. The aim of this literature review is to map out the state of the art of knowledge about the usage of ICT in elderly care and to figure out research-based knowledge about the usability of ICT for the prevention of loneliness and social isolation of elderly people. The data for the current research comes from the core collection of the Web of Science and the data searching was performed using Boolean? The searching resulted in 216 published English articles. After going through the topics and abstracts, 34 articles were selected for the data analysis that is based on a multi approach framework. The analysis of the research approach is categorized according to some aspects of using ICT by older adults from the adoption of ICT to the impact of usage, and the social services for them. This literature review focused on the function of communication by excluding the applications that mainly relate to physical nursing. The results show that the so-called ‘digital divide’ still exists, but the older adults have the willingness to learn and utilise ICT in daily life, especially for communication. The data shows that the usage of ICT can prevent the loneliness and social isolation of older adults, and they are eager for technical support in using ICT. The results of data analysis on theoretical frames and concepts show that this research field applies different theoretical frames from various scientific fields, while a social work approach is lacking. However, a synergic frame of applied theories will be suggested from the perspective of social work.

Welke 'acteur' neemt de controllerrol als extraverte business partner?

Which 'actor' takes the management accountant role as an extravert business partner? Does a relation between the personal trait Extraversion and fulfilling a management accountant role as a business partner exist? Open Universiteit Nederland End thesis MSc Management, Accounting & Finance Support 1: Prof. dr. A.C.N. van de Ven RA Support 2: dr. P.C.M. Claes Examinator: dr. P. Kamminga Date of approval: September 3, 2014 student: P.R. van der Wal (studentnumber 839104017 email petervanderwal2003@yahoo.com The main question of this research is: Does a relation between the personal trait Extraversion and fulfilling a management accountant role as a business partner exist? This research is based on the dataset obtained by the controller survey 2013, executed in commission of the 'Open Universiteit' (Bork & van der Wal, 2014). From the literature review it is clear: among other management accountant roles we need business partners. And there is a relation between the personal trait Extraversion and fulfilling the role as business partner. At the same time a lack of necessary personal traits for this role has been noticed, among which is Extraversion. The factor- and cluster analyses reported by Bork & van der Wal (2014) resulted in the identification of two types of management accountant roles. In this extended research TYPE II is identified as a business partner because (s)he practices activity-combinations which are related to strategy, analyzing, supporting management in decision making, advisory, change-agency and representing the organization. 36% of the population of Dutch management accountants with a master degree (or similar) meet with the role of the business partner. Although the fulfillment of the role (TYPE II) is not purely business partnering. E.g. reporting and scorekeeping are still activities executed by TYPE II and it is not clear to what extent. Apart from that, role TYPE I executes change management and risk-management activities, which are (according to the definition) activities that belong to the business partner. The role as business partner is practiced but not that optimal as defined in theory. The logistic regression analyses on the survey-data show that Extraversion among three other triggers is significant for the prediction of the fulfillment of the management accountant role (Bork & van der Wal, 2014). A more extravert personal trait predicts a preference for TYPE II, which relates to the business partner. This 'in depth research' concentrated on the relation between the Big Five personal traits and the six activity-combinations (factors) instead of on the two clusters (I and II). The statistic analyses confirm the predicting influence of Extraversion on the business partner role. Although, except for one factor, no extra significance has been found in this additional research. The essential question can be confirmed positively: the management accountant role business partner exists in practice, some management accountants are more extravert then others, and there is a positive relation between extraversion and fulfilling the business partner role. Some formulated research limitations are related to the statistical weakness of some prediction outcomes and to interpretation differences that might occur. Further research can e.g. concentrate on the other personal traits and the significance for role-differentiation in education programs. The management accountant survey 2013 Management accountant roles in 2013 in the Netherlands Open Universiteit Nederland End thesis MSc Management, Accounting & Finance Support 1: Prof. dr. A.C.N. van de Ven RA Support 2: dr. P.C.M. Claes Examinator: dr. P. Kamminga Date of approval: September 3, 2014 student: P.R. van der Wal and H.J. Bork studentnumber: 839104017 and 838532340) email: petervanderwal2003@yahoo.com and hjbork@hotmail.com This paper describes the conceptual model and results of the 'management accountants survey 2013'. The survey is part of a longitudinal survey, earlier executed in 2004, 2007 and 2010 under responsibility of the 'Open Universiteit Nederland'. Secondly the dataset of this survey will be used by us to do our own analyses on the predicting value of the triggers 'personality factor: extraversion' and 'lever of control: interactive controls' on the management accounting role that comes close to a role defined as 'Business Partner'. Scientific research shows that there are different management accounting roles, and that these roles change and that preferences exist for certain roles (Verstegen B. , Loo, Mol, Slagter, & Geerkens, 2007). The main question that will be answered in this paper is which coherent combinations of activities are being executed by management accountants in 2013 in the Netherlands by master-graduates? And secondly which triggers of management accountants' activities predict to which cluster a management accountant belongs? The conceptual model of this research has been developed in 2004 (Verstegen B. , Loo, Mol, Slagter, & Geerkens, 2007). For this research the same 37 activities as in the former researches are included (appendix 1). In the trigger-set (appendix 1) some adaptations have been made for reasons of restricting the length of the survey and to pinpoint on particular research goals (e.g. personality and levers of control). The coherent combinations of activities were found by a factor-analysis and the groups of controllers by a cluster analysis. A regression analysis shows which trigger-items are most significant. The survey has been sent to 2.353 students that finished a controller-study on a Dutch University. There was a 9% (211) response with a completely filled survey. 137 of which indicated to work in a controller-function at the moment. These controllers have been included in the results. The factor-analysis results in six different coherent combinations of activities (factors). Shortly these factors are: advising top management on strategic level with result-effecting information (1), organizing internal reporting (2) organizing and representing the organization on external reporting (3), advising and managing changes by shortcomings in processes and control systems (4), maintaining and managing administrative organization- , information- and control systems (5) and organizing/executing risk management and internal audit (6). Factors 4, 5 and 6 are clustered in cluster TYPE I (125 controllers) and factors 1, 2 and 3 in cluster TYPE II (69 controllers). TYPE II can be associated with the management accountant role 'Business Partner', although the accountant keeps partly active in a scorekeeper role. The four most significant triggers for predicting being a TYPE II controller are 'Executing a risk-management task in order to meet compliance standards' (1), extraversion (2), company size in terms of fte (3) and gender (4).

Towards a better understanding of flood-risk preparedness: A typological review

Preparedness has become a central component to contemporary approaches to flood risk management as there is a growing recognition that our reliance on engineered flood defences is unsustainable within the context of more extreme and unpredictable weather events. Whilst many researchers have focused their attention on exploring the key factors influencing flood-risk preparedness at the individual level, little consideration has been attributed to how we understand preparedness conceptually and practically in the first instance. This paper seeks to address this particular gap by identifying and analysing the diverse range of conceptualisations of preparedness and typologies of preparedness measures that exist within the literature in order to identify areas of convergence and divergence. In doing so, we demonstrate that a considerable degree of confusion remains in terms of how preparedness is defined, conceptualised and categorised. We conclude by reflecting on the implications this has from an academic perspective, but also in terms of the more practical aspects of flood risk management.

Towards a Better Modelling and Assessment of Construction Risk: Insights from a Literature Review

This paper reviews the literature of construction risk modelling and assessment. It also reviews the real practice of risk assessment. The review resulted in significant results, summarised as follows. There has been a major shift in risk perception from an estimation variance into a project attribute. Although the Probability–Impact risk model is prevailing, substantial efforts are being put to improving it reflecting the increasing complexity of construction projects. The literature lacks a comprehensive assessment approach capable of capturing risk impact on different project objectives. Obtaining a realistic project risk level demands an effective mechanism for aggregating individual risk assessments. The various assessment tools suffer from low take-up; professionals typically rely on their experience. It is concluded that a simple analytical tool that uses risk cost as a common scale and utilises professional experience could be a viable option to facilitate closing the gap between theory and practice of risk assessment.

A DST-based Approach for Construction Project Risk Analysis

Despite its huge potential in risk analysis, the Dempster–Shafer Theory of Evidence (DST) has not received enough attention in construction management. This paper presents a DST-based approach for structuring personal experience and professional judgment when assessing construction project risk. DST was innovatively used to tackle the problem of lacking sufficient information through enabling analysts to provide incomplete assessments. Risk cost is used as a common scale for measuring risk impact on the various project objectives, and the Evidential Reasoning algorithm is suggested as a novel alternative for aggregating individual assessments. A spreadsheet-based decision support system (DSS) was devised to facilitate the proposed approach. Four case studies were conducted to examine the approach's viability. Senior managers in four British construction companies tried the DSS and gave very promising feedback. The paper concludes that the proposed methodology may contribute to bridging the gap between theory and practice of construction risk assessment.

Aspectos do gerenciamento de riscos de tecnologia da informação nas empresas: um estudo de caso múltiplos

The information technology - IT- benefits have been more perceived during the last decades. Both IT and business managers are dealing with subjects like governance, IT-Business alignment, information security and others on their top priorities. Talking about governance, specifically, managers are facing it with a technical approach, that gives emphasis on protection against invasions, antivirus systems, access controls and others technical issues. The IT risk management, commonly, is faced under this approach, that means, has its importance reduced and delegated to IT Departments. On the last two decades, a new IT risk management perspective raised, bringing an holistic view of IT risk to the organization. According to this new perspective, the strategies formulation process should take into account the IT risks. With the growing of IT dependence on most of organizations, the necessity of a better comprehension about the subject becomes more clear. This work shows a study in three public organizations of the Pernambuco State that investigates how those organizations manage their IT risks. Structured interviews were made with IT managers, and later, analyzed and compared with conceptual categories found in the literature. The results shows that the IT risks culture and IT governance are weakly understood and implemented on those organizations, where there are not such an IT risk methodology formally defined, neither executed. In addition, most of practices suggested in the literature were found, even without an alignment with an IT risks management process

Anticipating future risk in social-ecological systems using fuzzy cognitive mapping: the case of wildfire in the Chiquitania, Bolivia

Understanding complex social-ecological systems, and anticipating how they may respond to rapid change, requires an approach that incorporates environmental, social, economic, and policy factors, usually in a context of fragmented data availability. We employed fuzzy cognitive mapping (FCM) to integrate these factors in the assessment of future wildfire risk in the Chiquitania region, Bolivia. In this region, dealing with wildfires is becoming increasingly challenging because of reinforcing feedbacks between multiple drivers. We conducted semistructured interviews and constructed different FCMs in focus groups to understand the regional dynamics of wildfire from diverse perspectives. We used FCM modelling to evaluate possible adaptation scenarios in the context of future drier climatic conditions. Scenarios also considered possible failure to respond in time to the emergent risk. This approach proved of great potential to support decision making for risk management. It helped identify key forcing variables and generate insights into potential risks and trade-offs of different strategies. The “Hands-off” scenario resulted in amplified impacts driven by intensifying trends, affecting particularly the agricultural production under drought conditions. The “Fire management” scenario, which adopted a bottom-up approach to improve controlled burning, showed less trade-offs between wildfire risk reduction and production compared with the “Fire suppression” scenario. Findings highlighted the importance of considering strategies that involve all actors who use fire, and the need to nest these strategies for a more systemic approach to manage wildfire risk. The FCM model could be used as a decision-support tool and serve as a “boundary object” to facilitate collaboration and integration of different perceptions of fire in the region. This approach also has the potential to inform decisions in other dynamic frontier landscapes around the world that are facing increased risk of large wildfires.