Modelling the system behaviour of wet snow avalanches using an expert system approach for risk management on high alpine traffic roads

The presented approach describes a model for a rule-based expert system calculating the temporal variability of the release of wet snow avalanches, using the assumption of avalanche triggering without the loading of new snow. The knowledge base of the model is created by using investigations on the system behaviour of wet snow avalanches in the Italian Ortles Alps, and is represented by a fuzzy logic rule-base. Input parameters of the expert system are numerical and linguistic variables, measurable meteorological and topographical factors and observable characteristics of the snow cover. Output of the inference method is the quantified release disposition for wet snow avalanches. Combining topographical parameters and the spatial interpolation of the calculated release disposition a hazard index map is dynamically generated. Furthermore, the spatial and temporal variability of damage potential on roads exposed to wet snow avalanches can be quantified, expressed by the number of persons at risk. The application of the rule base to the available data in the study area generated plausible results. The study demonstrates the potential for the application of expert systems and fuzzy logic in the field of natural hazard monitoring and risk management.

Wet deposition of fossil and non-fossil derived particulate carbon: insights from radiocarbon measurement

Radiocarbon (14C) measurements of both organic carbon (OC) and elemental carbon (EC) allow a more detailed source apportionment, leading to a full and unambiguous distinction and quantification of the contributions from non-fossil and fossil sources. A thermal-optical method with a commercial OC/EC analyzer to isolate water-insoluble OC (WIOC) and EC for their subsequent 14C measurement was applied for the first time to filtered precipitation samples collected at a costal site in Portugal and at a continental site in Switzerland. Our results show that WIOC in precipitation is dominated by non-fossil sources such as biogenic and biomass-burning emissions regardless of rain origins and seasons, whereas EC sources are shared by fossil-fuel combustion and biomass burning. In addition, monthly variation of WIOC in Switzerland was characterized by higher abundance in warm than in cold seasons, highlighting the importance of biogenic emissions to particulate carbon in rainwater. Samples with high particulate carbon concentrations in Portugal were found to be associated with increased biogenic input. Despite the importance of non-fossil sources, fossil emissions account for approximately 20% of particulate carbon in wet deposition for our study, which is in line with fossil contribution in bulk rainwater dissolved organic carbon as well as aerosol WIOC and EC estimated by the 14C approach from other studies.

Wet and dry deposition of 129I in Seville (Spain) measured by accelerator mass spectrometry

Iodine-129 (Full-size image (<1 K)) concentrations have been determined by accelerator mass spectrometry in rainwater samples taken at Seville (southwestern Spain) in 1996 and 1997. This technique allows a reduction in the detection limits for this radionuclide in comparison to radiometric counting and other mass spectrometric methods such as ICP-MS. Typical 129I concentrations range from 4.7×107129I atoms/l (19.2%) to 4.97×109129I atoms/l (5.9%), while 129I depositions are normally in the order of 108–1010 atoms/m2 d. These values agree well with other results obtained for recent rainwater samples collected in Europe. Apart from these, the relationship between 129I deposition and some atmospheric factors has been analyzed, showing the importance of the precipitation rate and the concentration of suspended matter in it.

Plasma NGAL and glomerular filtration rate in cardiac transplant recipients treated with standard or reduced calcineurin inhibitor levels.

AIM Predictors of renal recovery following conversion from calcineurin inhibitor- to proliferation signal inhibitor-based therapy are lacking. We hypothesized that plasma NGAL (P-NGAL) could predict improvement in glomerular filtration rate (GFR) after conversion to everolimus. PATIENTS & METHODS P-NGAL was measured in 88 cardiac transplantation patients (median 5 years post-transplant) with renal dysfunction randomized to continuation of conventional calcineurin inhibitor-based immunosuppression or switching to an everolimus-based regimen. RESULTS P-NGAL correlated with measured GFR (mGFR) at baseline (R(2) = 0.21; p < 0.001). Randomization to everolimus improved mGFR after 1 year (median [25-75 % percentiles]: ΔmGFR 5.5 [-0.5-11.5] vs -1 [-7-4] ml/min/1.73 m(2); p = 0.006). Baseline P-NGAL predicted mGFR after 1 year (R(2) = 0.18; p < 0.001), but this association disappeared after controlling for baseline mGFR. CONCLUSION P-NGAL and GFR correlate with renal dysfunction in long-term heart transplantation recipients. P-NGAL did not predict improvement of renal function after conversion to everolimus-based immunosuppression.

The cystatin C/creatinine ratio, a marker of glomerular filtration quality: associated factors, reference intervals, and prediction of morbidity and mortality in healthy seniors.

The ratio of cystatin C (cysC) to creatinine (crea) is regarded as a marker of glomerular filtration quality associated with cardiovascular morbidities. We sought to determine reference intervals for serum cysC-crea ratio in seniors. Furthermore, we sought to determine whether other low-molecular weight molecules exhibit a similar behavior in individuals with altered glomerular filtration quality. Finally, we investigated associations with adverse outcomes. A total of 1382 subjectively healthy Swiss volunteers aged 60 years or older were enrolled in the study. Reference intervals were calculated according to Clinical & Laboratory Standards Institute (CLSI) guideline EP28-A3c. After a baseline exam, a 4-year follow-up survey recorded information about overall morbidity and mortality. The cysC-crea ratio (mean 0.0124 ± 0.0026 mg/μmol) was significantly higher in women and increased progressively with age. Other associated factors were hemoglobin A1c, mean arterial pressure, and C-reactive protein (P < 0.05 for all). Participants exhibiting shrunken pore syndrome had significantly higher ratios of 3.5-66.5 kDa molecules (brain natriuretic peptide, parathyroid hormone, β2-microglobulin, cystatin C, retinol-binding protein, thyroid-stimulating hormone, α1-acid glycoprotein, lipase, amylase, prealbumin, and albumin) and creatinine. There was no such difference in the ratios of very low-molecular weight molecules (urea, uric acid) to creatinine or in the ratios of molecules larger than 66.5 kDa (transferrin, haptoglobin) to creatinine. The cysC-crea ratio was significantly predictive of mortality and subjective overall morbidity at follow-up in logistic regression models adjusting for several factors. The cysC-crea ratio exhibits age- and sex-specific reference intervals in seniors. In conclusion, the cysC-crea ratio may indicate the relative retention of biologically active low-molecular weight compounds and can independently predict the risk for overall mortality and morbidity in the elderly.

Dissolution-Precipitation in Porous Media: Experiments and Modelling

The evolution of porosity due to dissolution/precipitation processes of minerals and the associated change of transport parameters are of major interest for natural geological environments and engineered underground structures. We designed a reproducible and fast to conduct 2D experiment, which is flexible enough to investigate several process couplings implemented in the numerical code OpenGeosys-GEM (OGS-GEM). We investigated advective-diffusive transport of solutes, effect of liquid phase density on advective transport, and kinetically controlled dissolution/precipitation reactions causing porosity changes. In addition, the system allowed to investigate the influence of microscopic (pore scale) processes on macroscopic (continuum scale) transport. A Plexiglas tank of dimension 10 × 10 cm was filled with a 1 cm thick reactive layer consisting of a bimodal grain size distribution of celestite (SrSO4) crystals, sandwiched between two layers of sand. A barium chloride solution was injected into the tank causing an asymmetric flow field to develop. As the barium chloride reached the celestite region, dissolution of celestite was initiated and barite precipitated. Due to the higher molar volume of barite, its precipitation caused a porosity decrease and thus also a decrease in the permeability of the porous medium. The change of flow in space and time was observed via injection of conservative tracers and analysis of effluents. In addition, an extensive post-mortem analysis of the reacted medium was conducted. We could successfully model the flow (with and without fluid density effects) and the transport of conservative tracers with a (continuum scale) reactive transport model. The prediction of the reactive experiments initially failed. Only the inclusion of information from post-mortem analysis gave a satisfactory match for the case where the flow field changed due to dissolution/precipitation reactions. We concentrated on the refinement of post-mortem analysis and the investigation of the dissolution/precipitation mechanisms at the pore scale. Our analytical techniques combined scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and synchrotron X-ray micro-diffraction/micro-fluorescence performed at the XAS beamline (Swiss Light Source). The newly formed phases include an epitaxial growth of barite micro-crystals on large celestite crystals (epitaxial growth) and a nano-crystalline barite phase (resulting from the dissolution of small celestite crystals) with residues of celestite crystals in the pore interstices. Classical nucleation theory, using well-established and estimated parameters describing barite precipitation, was applied to explain the mineralogical changes occurring in our system. Our pore scale investigation showed limits of the continuum scale reactive transport model. Although kinetic effects were implemented by fixing two distinct rates for the dissolution of large and small celestite crystals, instantaneous precipitation of barite was assumed as soon as oversaturation occurred. Precipitation kinetics, passivation of large celestite crystals and metastability of supersaturated solutions, i.e. the conditions under which nucleation cannot occur despite high supersaturation, were neglected. These results will be used to develop a pore scale model that describes precipitation and dissolution of crystals at the pore scale for various transport and chemical conditions. Pore scale modelling can be used to parameterize constitutive equations to introduce pore-scale corrections into macroscopic (continuum) reactive transport models. Microscopic understanding of the system is fundamental for modelling from the pore to the continuum scale.

Permittivity measurements of porous matter in support of investigations of the surface and interior of 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko

Aims. Permittivity measurements on porous samples of volcanic origin have been performed in the 0.05-190 GHz range under laboratory conditions in support of the Rosetta mission to comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko, specifically with the MIRO radiometric experiment and CONSERT radar experiment. Methods. The samples were split into several subsamples with different size ranges covering a few mu m to 500 mu m. Bulk densities of the subsamples were estimated to be in the 800 to 1500 kg/m(3) range. The porosities were in the range of 48% to 65%. From 50 MHz to 6 GHz and at 190 GHz, permittivity has been determined with a coaxial cell and with a quasi-optical bench, respectively. Results. Without taking into account the volume-scattering effect at 190 GHz, the real part of the permittivity, normalized by the bulk density, is in the range of 2.1 to 2.6. The results suggest that the real part of the permittivity of an ice-free dust mantle covering the nucleus is in the 1.5-2.2 range at 190 GHz. From these values, a lower limit for the absorption length for the millimeter receiver of MIRO has been estimated to be between 0.6 and 2 cm, in agreement with results obtained from MIRO in September 2014. At frequencies of interest for CONSERT experiment, the real part of the permittivity of a suspected ice-free dust mantle should be below 2.2. It may be in the range of 1.2 to 1.7 for the nucleus, in agreement with first CONSERT results, taking into account a mean temperature of 110 K and different values for the dust-to-ice volumetric ratio. Estimations of contributions of the different parameters to the permittivity variation may indicate that the porosity is the main parameter.

Osteoblast Response to Commercially Available Ti-6Al-4V and Novel Porous Tantalum. In Vitro Biocompatibility Studies

The response of human osteoblasts to materials is crucial for evaluating biocompatibility of an implant material for bone defects. Previous work in our lab demonstrated that the response of human osteoblasts to orthopaedic and dental materials in vitro varies depending on the sex and age of the patient [1]. Osteoblasts from female patients older than 60 years old, adhered less and produced less matrix proteins and calcification than osteoblasts from younger female patients and all ages of male patients. Recently developed, porous tantalum demonstrates improved biomechanical properties for bone and good biocompatibility in in vivo human studies, however there are few, if any, in vitro biocompatibility studies on this material. In this project, we aimed to compare the phenotypic expression of human osteoblasts from young and old female patients to commercially available Ti-6Al-4V and porous tantalum in a well-developed in vitro system. 1. Zhang H, Lewis CG, Aronow MS, Gronowicz G. The effect of patient age on human osteoblasts’ response to Ti-6Al-4V implants in vitro. J. Orthop. Res. 2004;22(1):30-8.