Holistic Measures for Evaluating Prediction Models in Smart Grids

The performance of prediction models is often based on ``abstract metrics'' that estimate the model's ability to limit residual errors between the observed and predicted values. However, meaningful evaluation and selection of prediction models for end-user domains requires holistic and application-sensitive performance measures. Inspired by energy consumption prediction models used in the emerging ``big data'' domain of Smart Power Grids, we propose a suite of performance measures to rationally compare models along the dimensions of scale independence, reliability, volatility and cost. We include both application independent and dependent measures, the latter parameterized to allow customization by domain experts to fit their scenario. While our measures are generalizable to other domains, we offer an empirical analysis using real energy use data for three Smart Grid applications: planning, customer education and demand response, which are relevant for energy sustainability. Our results underscore the value of the proposed measures to offer a deeper insight into models' behavior and their impact on real applications, which benefit both data mining researchers and practitioners.

Zinc acetylacetonate hydrate adducted with nitrogen donor ligands: Synthesis, spectroscopic characterization, and thermal analysis

We report synthesis, spectroscopic characterization, and thermal analysis of zinc acetylacetonate complex adducted by nitrogen donor ligands, such as pyridine, bipyridine, and phenanthroline. The pyridine adducted complex crystallizes to monoclinic crystal structure, whereas other two adducted complexes have orthorhombic structure. Addition of nitrogen donor ligands enhances the thermal property of these complexes as that with parent metal-organic complex. Zinc acetylacetonate adducted with pyridine shows much higher volatility (106 degrees C), decomposition temperature (202 degrees C) as that with zinc acetylacetonate (136 degrees C, 220 degrees C), and other adducted complexes. All the adducted complexes are thermally stable, highly volatile and are considered to be suitable precursors for metal organic chemical vapor deposition. The formation of these complexes is confirmed by powder X-ray diffraction, Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy, mass spectroscopy, and elemental analysis. The complexes are widely used as starting precursor materials for the synthesis of ZnO nanostructures by microwave irradiation assisted coating process. (c) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Combustion and heat transfer characteristics of nanofluid fuel droplets: A short review

With the pressing need to meet an ever-increasing energy demand, the combustion systems utilizing fossil fuels have been the major contributors to carbon footprint. As the combustion of conventional energy resources continue to produce significant Green House gas (GHG) emissions, there is a strong emphasis to either upgrade or find an energy-efficient eco-friendly alternative to the traditional hydrocarbon fuels. With recent developments in nanotechnology, the ability to manufacture materials with custom tailored properties at nanoscale has led to the discovery of a new class of high energy density fuels containing reactive metallic nanoparticles (NPs). Due to the high reactive interfacial area and enhanced thermal and mass transport properties of nanomaterials, the high heat of formation of these metallic fuels can now be released rapidly, thereby saving on specific fuel consumption and hence reducing GHG emissions. In order to examine the efficacy of nanofuels in energetic formulations, it is imperative to first study their combustion characteristics at the droplet scale that form the fundamental building block for any combustion system utilizing liquid fuel spray. During combustion of such multiphase, multicomponent droplets, the phenomenon of diffusional entrapment of high volatility species leads to its explosive boiling (at the superheat limit) thereby leading to an intense internal pressure build-up. This pressure upsurge causes droplet fragmentation either in form of a microexplosion or droplet puffing followed by atomization (with formation of daughter droplets) featuring disruptive burning. Both these atomization modes represent primary mechanisms for extracting the high oxidation energies of metal NP additives by exposing them to the droplet flame (with daughter droplets acting as carriers of NPs). Atomization also serves as a natural mechanism for uniform distribution and mixing of the base fuel and enhancing burning rates (due to increase in specific surface area through formation of smaller daughter droplets). However, the efficiency of atomization depends on the thermo-physical properties of the base fuel, NP concentration and type. For instance, at dense loading NP agglomeration may lead to shell formation which would sustain the pressure upsurge and hence suppress atomization thereby reducing droplet gasification rate. Contrarily, the NPs may act as nucleation sites and aid boiling and the radiation absorption by NPs (from the flame) may lead to enhanced burning rates. Thus, nanoadditives may have opposing effects on the burning rate depending on the relative dominance of processes occurring at the droplet scale. The fundamental idea in this study is to: First, review different thermo-physical processes that occur globally at the droplet and sub-droplet scale such as surface regression, shell formation due to NP agglomeration, internal boiling, atomization/NP transport to flame zone and flame acoustic interaction that occur at the droplet scale and second, understand how their interaction changes as a function of droplet size, NP type, NP concentration and the type of base fuel. This understanding is crucial for obtaining phenomenological insights on the combustion behavior of novel nanofluid fuels that show great promise for becoming the next-generation fuels. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Deformation pathways and breakup modes in acoustically levitated bicomponent droplets under external heating

Controlled breakup of droplets using heat or acoustics is pivotal in applications such as pharmaceutics, nanoparticle production, and combustion. In the current work we have identified distinct thermal acoustics-induced deformation regimes (ligaments and bubbles) and breakup dynamics in externally heated acoustically levitated bicomponent (benzene-dodecane) droplets with a wide variation in volatility of the two components (benzene is significantly more volatile than dodecane). We showcase the physical mechanism and universal behavior of droplet surface caving in leading to the inception and growth of ligaments. The caving of the top surface is governed by a balance between the acoustic pressure field and the restrictive surface tension of the droplet. The universal collapse of caving profiles for different benzene concentration (<70% by volume) is shown by using an appropriate time scale obtained from force balance. Continuous caving leads to the formation of a liquid membrane-type structure which undergoes radial extension due to inertia gained during the precursor phase. The membrane subsequently closes at the rim and the kinetic energy leads to ligament formation and growth. Subsequent ligament breakup is primarily Rayleigh-Plateau type. The breakup mode shifts to diffusional entrapment-induced boiling with an increase in concentration of the volatile component (benzene >70% by volume). The findings are portable to any similar bicomponent systems with differential volatility.

Uniform stability of a particle approximation of the optimal filter derivative

Sequential Monte Carlo methods, also known as particle methods, are a widely used set of computational tools for inference in non-linear non-Gaussian state-space models. In many applications it may be necessary to compute the sensitivity, or derivative, of the optimal filter with respect to the static parameters of the state-space model; for instance, in order to obtain maximum likelihood model parameters of interest, or to compute the optimal controller in an optimal control problem. In Poyiadjis et al. [2011] an original particle algorithm to compute the filter derivative was proposed and it was shown using numerical examples that the particle estimate was numerically stable in the sense that it did not deteriorate over time. In this paper we substantiate this claim with a detailed theoretical study. Lp bounds and a central limit theorem for this particle approximation of the filter derivative are presented. It is further shown that under mixing conditions these Lp bounds and the asymptotic variance characterized by the central limit theorem are uniformly bounded with respect to the time index. We demon- strate the performance predicted by theory with several numerical examples. We also use the particle approximation of the filter derivative to perform online maximum likelihood parameter estimation for a stochastic volatility model.

Polarización política, rigideces presupuestarias e inflación

Resumen: Los distintos países muestran historias inflacionarias muy diversas. La literatura económica señala a las caracterÍsticas del sistema polÍtico como uno de los factores que explican estas diferencias. En particular, la inestabilidad y la polarización política son destacadas como factores que inciden en un mayor nivel y una mayor volatilidad de la inflación. Este trabajo presenta una explicación novedosa para este vínculo. El trabajo muestra que las rigideces presupuestarias (en particular, la inflexibilidad a la baja del gasto público nominal) pueden llevar a que un mayor grado de polarización política aumente el nivel y la volatilidad de la tasa inflación.

Tolerancia de diferentes variedades de repollo (Brassica oleracea L.) a la bacteriosis causada por Xanthomonas campestris pv. campestris P.

Con el objetivo determinar el grado de tolerancia de diferentes variedades de repollo a la bacteriosis (xanthomonas campestri pv. Campestri) y evaluar su adaptabilidad y rendimiento en la zona de la concepción , Masaya, se establecieron ensayos en invernadero y campo en el periodo comprendido entre el 17 de abril al 17 de noviembre de 1989. Se evaluaron 10 variedades de repollo bajo las condiciones de inoculación artificial en el invernadero de las cuales la variedad superette resulto la más susceptible a la bacteriosis; las variedades yasseng e izalco resultaron las más tolerantes. Otras variedades como King kole, Premium y potye resultaron menos susceptibles. A nivel de campo se evaluaron 5 variedades seleccionadas de acuerdo a su grado de tolerancia a bacteriosis y representatividad en el país de las cuales fueron superette, izalco resulto más tolerante a la bacteriosis mientras que la variedad superette mostro alta susceptibilidad seguido por King kole, Premium y copenhagen. Los rendimientos en las variedades susceptibles a la bacteriosis resultaron bajos comparados con izalco.

Efectos de la política monetaria en un modelo de precios rígidos en distintas monedas

Resumen: En un modelo dinámico, de dos países y con precios rígidos, este trabajo analiza la transmisión de la política monetaria cuando las empresas fijan sus precios en distintas monedas. Siguiendo el modelo de Betts y Devereux (2000) suponemos que las empresas pueden fijar un único precio para el mercado local y extranjero en moneda del país al cual exportan. Algunas empresas segmentan el mercado por país y otras fijan un único precio en su propia moneda o en la del país vecino. Los precios rígidos en moneda del país vecino aumentan la variabilidad del tipo de cambio y reducen los efectos positivos que la política monetaria tiene sobre el consumo y la tasa de interés real, respecto a una situación donde las empresas sólo segmentan el mercado o fijan un único precio en su propia moneda. En ausencia de segmentación de mercado, a mayor número de empresas que fijen su precio en moneda del país vecino, mayor es el efecto positivo que un shock monetario en el país extranjero tiene sobre su bienestar y el del otro, pero es menor en ambos cuando se produce en el país local.

Fiscal imbalances, inflation and sovereign default dynamics

Resumen: La cuestión central que este artículo busca responder es como la política monetaria puede afectar el comportamiento de equilibrio de primas por riesgo soberano y cesación de pagos. El artículo se basa en el modelo de “una-tasa-interés”. La deuda pública se hace riesgosa a causa de una política fiscal activa, como en Uribe (2006), reflejando la habilidad limitada de la autoridad fiscal para controlar el superávit primario. El problema de insolvencia es debido a una oleada de mala suerte (shocks negativos que afectan el superávit primario). Pero en contraste a los resultados de Uribe, a medida que aumenta el costo de la deuda soberana (que resulta de un excedente primario débil), la cesación de pagos se anticipa y es reflejada por una creciente prima de riesgo en el país y una probabilidad de cesación de pagos. La cesación de pagos se define como un incumplimiento de un acuerdo contractual y por ende la decisión es tomada por la autoridad fiscal. Mientras tanto, objetivos conflictivos entre la autoridad monetaria y fiscal juegan un rol importante en llevar a la autoridad fiscal a la cesación de pagos sobre sus pasivos. La característica de la política del gobierno necesaria para restaurar el equilibrio después de la cesación de pagos también es analizada.

Long Term Dynamics in CO2 Allowance Prices and Carbon Capture Investments

In this paper we analyse the behaviour of the EU market for CO2 emission allowances; specifically, we focus on the contracts maturing in the Kyoto Protocol's second period of application (2008 to 2012). We calibrate the underlying parameters for the allowance price in the long run and we also calibrate those from the Spanish wholesale electricity market. This information is then used to assess the option to install a carbon capture and storage (CCS) unit in a coal-fired power plant. We use a two-dimensional binomial lattice where costs and profits are valued and the optimal investment time is determined. In other words, we study the trigger allowance prices above which it is optimal to install the capture unit immediately. We further analyse the impact of several variables on the critical prices, among them allowance price volatility and a hypothetical government subsidy. We conclude that, at current permit prices, from a financial point of view, immediate installation does not seem justified. This need not be the case, though, if carbon market parameters change dramatically and/or a specific policy to promote these units is adopted.

Fiscal Policy and Economic Stability: Does PIGS stand for Procyclicality In Government Spending?

The Financial Crisis has hit particularly hard countries like Ireland or Spain. Procyclical fiscal policy has contributed to a boom-bust cycle that undermined fiscal positions and deepened current account deficits during the boom. We set up an RBC model of a small open economy, following Mendoza (1991), and introduce the effect of fiscal policy decisions that change over the cycle. We calibrate the model on data for Ireland, and simulate the effect of different spending policies in response to supply shocks. Procyclical fiscal policy distorts intertemporal allocation decisions. Temporary spending boosts in booms spur investment, and hence the need for external finance, and so generates very volatile cycles in investment and the current account. This economic instability is also harmful for the steady state level of output. Our model is able to replicate the relation between the degree of cyclicality of fiscal policy, and the volatility of consumption, investment and the current account observed in OECD countries.

The Impact of Firm Level Contracting on Wage Levels and Inequality: Spain 1995-2002

This paper provides microeconomic evidence on the variation over time of the firm-specific wage premium in Spain from 1995 to 2002, and its impact on wage inequality. We make use of two waves of a detailed linked employer-employee data set. In addition, a new data set with financial information on firms is used for 2002 to control as flexibly as possible for differences in the performance of firms (aggregated at industry level). To our knowledge, there is no microeconomic evidence on the dynamics of the firm-specific wage premium for Spain or for any other country with a similar institutional setting. Our results suggest that there is a clear tendency towards centralization in the collective bargaining process in Spain over this seven-year period, that the firm-level contract wage premium undergoes a substantial decrease, particularly for women, and finally that the "centralization" observed in the collective bargaining process has resulted in a slight decrease in wage inequality.

The effect of firm-level contracts on the structure of wages: evidence from matched employer-employee data

Revised: 2006-11

Going Multinational under Exchange Rate Uncertainty

Published as an article in: Journal of International Money and Finance, 2010, vol. 29, issue 6, pages 1171-1191.

Does the Term Spread play a role in the FED's reaction function? An Empirical Investigation

Using US data for the period 1967:5-2002:4, this paper empirically investigates the performance of a Fed’s reaction function (FRF) that (i) allows for the presence of switching regimes, (ii) considers the long-short term spread in addition to the typical variables, (iii) uses an alternative monthly indicator of general economic activity suggested by Stock and Watson (1999), and (iv) considers interest rate smoothing. The estimation results show the existence of three switching regimes, two characterized by low volatility and the remaining regime by high volatility. Moreover, the scale of the responses of the Federal funds rate to movements in the rate of inflation and the economic activity index depends on the regime. The estimation results also show robust empirical evidence that the importance of the term spread in the FRF has increased over the sample period and the FRF has been more stable during the term of office of Chairman Greenspan than in the pre-Greenspan period.