Portuguese stagnation in the 2001-2012 period

The 2001-2012 period has been one of very low growth for Portugal. This work project tries to find reasons for this slowdown. Growth in real GDP will be explained by several variables ranging from education, capital, government and world markets. Compensation of employees, capital per worker and the exports of competitors seem to explain a significant part of the slowdown. The ratio of non-tradables to tradables is also included but not significant, maybe due to a poor sample size. Stagnation then seems to be caused both by low growth in input accumulation and productivity as predicted by Amador and Coimbra in 2007.

Local diversity of tropical and temperature ant faunas (Hymenoptera, Formicidae)

Qualitative and quantitative collections of ants made in the region of Manaus, Brazil (evergreen tropical humid forest), and in western North Carolina, USA (deciduous temperate/wet forest), were undertaken to investigate. latitudinal patterns of ant diversity and community organization on regional and local scales. We have found to date 307 ant species in the Municipality of Manaus. Totals ranging from 134 to 270+ species have been reported in the literature for other tropical regions of less than 10,000km2. In contrast, temperate ant surveys generally report only SO to 150 species in similar or larger areas. Sampling at sardine baits set 10m apart on square grids, we found forest ecosystems near Manaus to be much richer and more diverse in ants than those sampled in North Carolina: 28 species vs. 5-10 species in 50 collections and 16 vs. 3 previously unrecorded species discovered with each doubling of sample size. Room's (1975a) results from climatically simllar Papua New Guinea forest agree closely with those from Manaus. We suggest that one important factor contributing to the increased diversity of tropical, omnivorous ants may be greater variety of nest sites available for specialization.

Attachment style impacts behavior and early oculomotor response to positive, but not negative, pictures

The present study investigated whether oculomotor behavior is influenced by attachment styles. The Relationship Scales Questionnaire was used to assess attachment styles of forty-eight voluntary university students and to classify them into attachment groups (secure, preoccupied, fearful, and dismissing). Eye-tracking was recorded while participants engaged in a 3-seconds free visual exploration of stimuli presenting either a positive or a negative picture together with a neutral picture, all depicting social interactions. The task consisted in identifying whether the two pictures depicted the same emotion. Results showed that the processing of negative pictures was impermeable to attachment style, while the processing of positive pictures was significantly influenced by individual differences in insecure attachment. The groups highly avoidant regarding to attachment (dismissing and fearful) showed reduced accuracy, suggesting a higher threshold for recognizing positive emotions compared to the secure group. The groups with higher attachment anxiety (preoccupied and fearful) showed differences in automatic capture of attention, in particular an increased delay preceding the first fixation to a picture of positive emotional valence. Despite lenient statistical thresholds induced by the limited sample size of some groups (p < 0.05 uncorrected for multiple comparisons), the current findings suggest that the processing of positive emotions is affected by attachment styles. These results are discussed within a broader evolutionary framework.

Polychromatism of populations of Corallus hortulanus (Squamata: Boidae) from the southern Amazon Basin, Brazil

The Amazon tree boa Corallus hortulanus is known for featuring a wide variation in color pattern and design markings. Although there are studies on its polychromatism, none of them addresses the geographic variation in the color pattern of this species. The aim of this study was to describe the chromatic variation found in the populations of C. hortulanus from the southern Amazon Basin and its relationship with geographic distribution of the species. Analysis of both design markings and color patterns on 112 C. hortulanus specimens from the southern Amazon Basin interfluves resulted in the identification of six distinct morphotypes. Grayish-brown coloration and elongated diamond-shaped patterns were the most frequent patterns. Two morphotypes showed a tendency of correlation with the geographical distribution of those species found in Madeira and Juruá Rivers. The small sample size does not allow for a robust conclusion on the possible cause of geographic variation. The distribution of morphological patterns of C. hortullanus in the Amazon Basin suggest that there is gene flow between populations, regardless of geographical distance and natural barriers. The variation in color pattern and markings may represent a phenotypic response to the characteristics of different habitats occupied by the species.

A five year follow-up study of 11 patients with bipolar disorder

OBJECTIVE: To study the long-term follow-up of patients with bipolar disorder (BPD). METHOD: Eleven outpatients with BPD type I were followed up naturalistically for five years at a university teaching hospital. The Clinical Global Impression Scale (BPD version) was used to evaluate the occurrence of affective episodes, and the Strauss-Carpenter Outcome Scale was used to evaluate social and occupational functioning. RESULTS: The majority of patients were symptomatic most of the time, with predominantly depressive episodes. Overall, patients remained euthymic a mean of 47.7% of the time. Despite a low rate of hospitalization, social and occupational functioning was poor in the majority of patients. A poor disease course with respect to work-related functioning was associated with fewer months of euthymia with a longer duration of depressive episodes. The total number of months of euthymia negatively correlated with the patient's age and disease duration. CONCLUSION: Despite the small sample size, the present findings appear to corroborate previous studies on the evolution of BPD. Most of the patients had a poor disease course, with long symptomatic periods, particularly depressive episodes, and significantly impaired social and occupational functioning.

Temperature-sex determination in Podocnemis expansa (Testudines, Podocnemididae)

This study has been carried out at the central region of the Araguaia river on the border between the states of Goiás and Mato Grosso in the Brazilian Amazon Basin from September to December 2000. We recorded temperature fluctuation, clutch-size, incubation period and hatching success rate and hatchlings' sex ratio of five nests of Podocnemis expansa (Schweigger, 1812). Despite the relatively small sample size we infer that: a) nests of P. expansa in the central Araguaia river have a lower incubation temperature than nests located further south; however, incubation period is shorter, hatching success rate is lower and clutch-size is larger; b) Podocnemis expansa may present a female-male-female (FMF) pattern of temperature sex-determination (TSD); c) thermosensitive period of sex determination apparently occur at the last third of the incubation period; and, d) future studies should prioritize the relationship between temperature variation (i.e., range and cycle) and embryos development, survivorship and sex determination.

Sexual dimorphism in Amphisbaena nigricauda (Reptilia, Squamata, Amphisbaenidae) from Southeastern Brazil

Amphisbaena nigricauda Gans, 1966 is a small, poorly known amphisbaenid endemic to the restinga of the states of Espírito Santo and Bahia, Brazil. We analyze 178 specimens collected in Vitória municipality, state of Espírito Santo, Brazil, to investigate whether this species show sexual dimorphism in pre-cloacal pores and in morphological characters. Sex was determined by a ventral incision and direct inspection of gonads. A PCA analysis was performed to generate a general body size measurement. A T test and the non-parametric Mann-Whitney test were used to assess whether this species show sexual dimorphism on five morphometric and five meristic characters, respectively. Sex could not be determined in 36 specimens because they were mutilated in the posterior portion of their bodies. The diagnosis of the species is redefined based on this sample size: the smallest number of body annuli changes from 222 to 192, the number of dorsal and ventral segments in an annulus in the middle of the body changes to 9-11/13-16 (instead of 10/16), and the autotomic tail annulus lies between annulus 7-10 (instead of 6-9). The number of tail annuli remained within the known range of variation of the species (19-24). None of the 80 females analyzed showed pre-cloacal pores, whereas within males 59 out of 62 specimens displayed four and two specimens displayed five pre-cloacal pores. A single male did not possess pre-cloacal pores, but showed irregular scales on its cloacal region. Sex-based difference based on presence or absence of pre-cloacal pores as well as males with wider head was seen in other Neotropical amphisbaenids. However, a pattern of body size differences between males and females has not been identified so far in the few amphisbaenid species studied in this regard. Further studies on this taxonomic group are still needed to elucidate the existence of general patterns of sexual dimorphism and to identify the selective pressures driving these patterns.

On Identification of Bayesian DSGE Models

In recent years there has been increasing concern about the identification of parameters in dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. Given the structure of DSGE models it may be difficult to determine whether a parameter is identified. For the researcher using Bayesian methods, a lack of identification may not be evident since the posterior of a parameter of interest may differ from its prior even if the parameter is unidentified. We show that this can even be the case even if the priors assumed on the structural parameters are independent. We suggest two Bayesian identification indicators that do not suffer from this difficulty and are relatively easy to compute. The first applies to DSGE models where the parameters can be partitioned into those that are known to be identified and the rest where it is not known whether they are identified. In such cases the marginal posterior of an unidentified parameter will equal the posterior expectation of the prior for that parameter conditional on the identified parameters. The second indicator is more generally applicable and considers the rate at which the posterior precision gets updated as the sample size (T) is increased. For identified parameters the posterior precision rises with T, whilst for an unidentified parameter its posterior precision may be updated but its rate of update will be slower than T. This result assumes that the identified parameters are pT-consistent, but similar differential rates of updates for identified and unidentified parameters can be established in the case of super consistent estimators. These results are illustrated by means of simple DSGE models.

Validation and long-term evaluation of a modified on-line chiral analytical method for therapeutic drug monitoring of (R,S)-methadone in clinical samples.

Matrix effects, which represent an important issue in liquid chromatography coupled to mass spectrometry or tandem mass spectrometry detection, should be closely assessed during method development. In the case of quantitative analysis, the use of stable isotope-labelled internal standard with physico-chemical properties and ionization behaviour similar to the analyte is recommended. In this paper, an example of the choice of a co-eluting deuterated internal standard to compensate for short-term and long-term matrix effect in the case of chiral (R,S)-methadone plasma quantification is reported. The method was fully validated over a concentration range of 5-800 ng/mL for each methadone enantiomer with satisfactory relative bias (-1.0 to 1.0%), repeatability (0.9-4.9%) and intermediate precision (1.4-12.0%). From the results obtained during validation, a control chart process during 52 series of routine analysis was established using both intermediate precision standard deviation and FDA acceptance criteria. The results of routine quality control samples were generally included in the +/-15% variability around the target value and mainly in the two standard deviation interval illustrating the long-term stability of the method. The intermediate precision variability estimated in method validation was found to be coherent with the routine use of the method. During this period, 257 trough concentration and 54 peak concentration plasma samples of patients undergoing (R,S)-methadone treatment were successfully analysed for routine therapeutic drug monitoring.

Decision-theoretic analysis of forensic sampling criteria using Bayesian decision networks

Sampling issues represent a topic of ongoing interest to the forensic science community essentially because of their crucial role in laboratory planning and working protocols. For this purpose, forensic literature described thorough (Bayesian) probabilistic sampling approaches. These are now widely implemented in practice. They allow, for instance, to obtain probability statements that parameters of interest (e.g., the proportion of a seizure of items that present particular features, such as an illegal substance) satisfy particular criteria (e.g., a threshold or an otherwise limiting value). Currently, there are many approaches that allow one to derive probability statements relating to a population proportion, but questions on how a forensic decision maker - typically a client of a forensic examination or a scientist acting on behalf of a client - ought actually to decide about a proportion or a sample size, remained largely unexplored to date. The research presented here intends to address methodology from decision theory that may help to cope usefully with the wide range of sampling issues typically encountered in forensic science applications. The procedures explored in this paper enable scientists to address a variety of concepts such as the (net) value of sample information, the (expected) value of sample information or the (expected) decision loss. All of these aspects directly relate to questions that are regularly encountered in casework. Besides probability theory and Bayesian inference, the proposed approach requires some additional elements from decision theory that may increase the efforts needed for practical implementation. In view of this challenge, the present paper will emphasise the merits of graphical modelling concepts, such as decision trees and Bayesian decision networks. These can support forensic scientists in applying the methodology in practice. How this may be achieved is illustrated with several examples. The graphical devices invoked here also serve the purpose of supporting the discussion of the similarities, differences and complementary aspects of existing Bayesian probabilistic sampling criteria and the decision-theoretic approach proposed throughout this paper.

Species distribution models for conservation-oriented studies in Switzerland : filling data and tools gaps

SUMMARYSpecies distribution models (SDMs) represent nowadays an essential tool in the research fields of ecology and conservation biology. By combining observations of species occurrence or abundance with information on the environmental characteristic of the observation sites, they can provide information on the ecology of species, predict their distributions across the landscape or extrapolate them to other spatial or time frames. The advent of SDMs, supported by geographic information systems (GIS), new developments in statistical models and constantly increasing computational capacities, has revolutionized the way ecologists can comprehend species distributions in their environment. SDMs have brought the tool that allows describing species realized niches across a multivariate environmental space and predict their spatial distribution. Predictions, in the form of probabilistic maps showing the potential distribution of the species, are an irreplaceable mean to inform every single unit of a territory about its biodiversity potential. SDMs and the corresponding spatial predictions can be used to plan conservation actions for particular species, to design field surveys, to assess the risks related to the spread of invasive species, to select reserve locations and design reserve networks, and ultimately, to forecast distributional changes according to scenarios of climate and/or land use change.By assessing the effect of several factors on model performance and on the accuracy of spatial predictions, this thesis aims at improving techniques and data available for distribution modelling and at providing the best possible information to conservation managers to support their decisions and action plans for the conservation of biodiversity in Switzerland and beyond. Several monitoring programs have been put in place from the national to the global scale, and different sources of data now exist and start to be available to researchers who want to model species distribution. However, because of the lack of means, data are often not gathered at an appropriate resolution, are sampled only over limited areas, are not spatially explicit or do not provide a sound biological information. A typical example of this is data on 'habitat' (sensu biota). Even though this is essential information for an effective conservation planning, it often has to be approximated from land use, the closest available information. Moreover, data are often not sampled according to an established sampling design, which can lead to biased samples and consequently to spurious modelling results. Understanding the sources of variability linked to the different phases of the modelling process and their importance is crucial in order to evaluate the final distribution maps that are to be used for conservation purposes.The research presented in this thesis was essentially conducted within the framework of the Landspot Project, a project supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation. The main goal of the project was to assess the possible contribution of pre-modelled 'habitat' units to model the distribution of animal species, in particular butterfly species, across Switzerland. While pursuing this goal, different aspects of data quality, sampling design and modelling process were addressed and improved, and implications for conservation discussed. The main 'habitat' units considered in this thesis are grassland and forest communities of natural and anthropogenic origin as defined in the typology of habitats for Switzerland. These communities are mainly defined at the phytosociological level of the alliance. For the time being, no comprehensive map of such communities is available at the national scale and at fine resolution. As a first step, it was therefore necessary to create distribution models and maps for these communities across Switzerland and thus to gather and collect the necessary data. In order to reach this first objective, several new developments were necessary such as the definition of expert models, the classification of the Swiss territory in environmental domains, the design of an environmentally stratified sampling of the target vegetation units across Switzerland, the development of a database integrating a decision-support system assisting in the classification of the relevés, and the downscaling of the land use/cover data from 100 m to 25 m resolution.The main contributions of this thesis to the discipline of species distribution modelling (SDM) are assembled in four main scientific papers. In the first, published in Journal of Riogeography different issues related to the modelling process itself are investigated. First is assessed the effect of five different stepwise selection methods on model performance, stability and parsimony, using data of the forest inventory of State of Vaud. In the same paper are also assessed: the effect of weighting absences to ensure a prevalence of 0.5 prior to model calibration; the effect of limiting absences beyond the environmental envelope defined by presences; four different methods for incorporating spatial autocorrelation; and finally, the effect of integrating predictor interactions. Results allowed to specifically enhance the GRASP tool (Generalized Regression Analysis and Spatial Predictions) that now incorporates new selection methods and the possibility of dealing with interactions among predictors as well as spatial autocorrelation. The contribution of different sources of remotely sensed information to species distribution models was also assessed. The second paper (to be submitted) explores the combined effects of sample size and data post-stratification on the accuracy of models using data on grassland distribution across Switzerland collected within the framework of the Landspot project and supplemented with other important vegetation databases. For the stratification of the data, different spatial frameworks were compared. In particular, environmental stratification by Swiss Environmental Domains was compared to geographical stratification either by biogeographic regions or political states (cantons). The third paper (to be submitted) assesses the contribution of pre- modelled vegetation communities to the modelling of fauna. It is a two-steps approach that combines the disciplines of community ecology and spatial ecology and integrates their corresponding concepts of habitat. First are modelled vegetation communities per se and then these 'habitat' units are used in order to model animal species habitat. A case study is presented with grassland communities and butterfly species. Different ways of integrating vegetation information in the models of butterfly distribution were also evaluated. Finally, a glimpse to climate change is given in the fourth paper, recently published in Ecological Modelling. This paper proposes a conceptual framework for analysing range shifts, namely a catalogue of the possible patterns of change in the distribution of a species along elevational or other environmental gradients and an improved quantitative methodology to identify and objectively describe these patterns. The methodology was developed using data from the Swiss national common breeding bird survey and the article presents results concerning the observed shifts in the elevational distribution of breeding birds in Switzerland.The overall objective of this thesis is to improve species distribution models as potential inputs for different conservation tools (e.g. red lists, ecological networks, risk assessment of the spread of invasive species, vulnerability assessment in the context of climate change). While no conservation issues or tools are directly tested in this thesis, the importance of the proposed improvements made in species distribution modelling is discussed in the context of the selection of reserve networks.RESUMELes modèles de distribution d'espèces (SDMs) représentent aujourd'hui un outil essentiel dans les domaines de recherche de l'écologie et de la biologie de la conservation. En combinant les observations de la présence des espèces ou de leur abondance avec des informations sur les caractéristiques environnementales des sites d'observation, ces modèles peuvent fournir des informations sur l'écologie des espèces, prédire leur distribution à travers le paysage ou l'extrapoler dans l'espace et le temps. Le déploiement des SDMs, soutenu par les systèmes d'information géographique (SIG), les nouveaux développements dans les modèles statistiques, ainsi que la constante augmentation des capacités de calcul, a révolutionné la façon dont les écologistes peuvent comprendre la distribution des espèces dans leur environnement. Les SDMs ont apporté l'outil qui permet de décrire la niche réalisée des espèces dans un espace environnemental multivarié et prédire leur distribution spatiale. Les prédictions, sous forme de carte probabilistes montrant la distribution potentielle de l'espèce, sont un moyen irremplaçable d'informer chaque unité du territoire de sa biodiversité potentielle. Les SDMs et les prédictions spatiales correspondantes peuvent être utilisés pour planifier des mesures de conservation pour des espèces particulières, pour concevoir des plans d'échantillonnage, pour évaluer les risques liés à la propagation d'espèces envahissantes, pour choisir l'emplacement de réserves et les mettre en réseau, et finalement, pour prévoir les changements de répartition en fonction de scénarios de changement climatique et/ou d'utilisation du sol. En évaluant l'effet de plusieurs facteurs sur la performance des modèles et sur la précision des prédictions spatiales, cette thèse vise à améliorer les techniques et les données disponibles pour la modélisation de la distribution des espèces et à fournir la meilleure information possible aux gestionnaires pour appuyer leurs décisions et leurs plans d'action pour la conservation de la biodiversité en Suisse et au-delà. Plusieurs programmes de surveillance ont été mis en place de l'échelle nationale à l'échelle globale, et différentes sources de données sont désormais disponibles pour les chercheurs qui veulent modéliser la distribution des espèces. Toutefois, en raison du manque de moyens, les données sont souvent collectées à une résolution inappropriée, sont échantillonnées sur des zones limitées, ne sont pas spatialement explicites ou ne fournissent pas une information écologique suffisante. Un exemple typique est fourni par les données sur 'l'habitat' (sensu biota). Même s'il s'agit d'une information essentielle pour des mesures de conservation efficaces, elle est souvent approximée par l'utilisation du sol, l'information qui s'en approche le plus. En outre, les données ne sont souvent pas échantillonnées selon un plan d'échantillonnage établi, ce qui biaise les échantillons et par conséquent les résultats de la modélisation. Comprendre les sources de variabilité liées aux différentes phases du processus de modélisation s'avère crucial afin d'évaluer l'utilisation des cartes de distribution prédites à des fins de conservation.La recherche présentée dans cette thèse a été essentiellement menée dans le cadre du projet Landspot, un projet soutenu par le Fond National Suisse pour la Recherche. L'objectif principal de ce projet était d'évaluer la contribution d'unités 'd'habitat' pré-modélisées pour modéliser la répartition des espèces animales, notamment de papillons, à travers la Suisse. Tout en poursuivant cet objectif, différents aspects touchant à la qualité des données, au plan d'échantillonnage et au processus de modélisation sont abordés et améliorés, et leurs implications pour la conservation des espèces discutées. Les principaux 'habitats' considérés dans cette thèse sont des communautés de prairie et de forêt d'origine naturelle et anthropique telles que définies dans la typologie des habitats de Suisse. Ces communautés sont principalement définies au niveau phytosociologique de l'alliance. Pour l'instant aucune carte de la distribution de ces communautés n'est disponible à l'échelle nationale et à résolution fine. Dans un premier temps, il a donc été nécessaire de créer des modèles de distribution de ces communautés à travers la Suisse et par conséquent de recueillir les données nécessaires. Afin d'atteindre ce premier objectif, plusieurs nouveaux développements ont été nécessaires, tels que la définition de modèles experts, la classification du territoire suisse en domaines environnementaux, la conception d'un échantillonnage environnementalement stratifié des unités de végétation cibles dans toute la Suisse, la création d'une base de données intégrant un système d'aide à la décision pour la classification des relevés, et le « downscaling » des données de couverture du sol de 100 m à 25 m de résolution. Les principales contributions de cette thèse à la discipline de la modélisation de la distribution d'espèces (SDM) sont rassemblées dans quatre articles scientifiques. Dans le premier article, publié dans le Journal of Biogeography, différentes questions liées au processus de modélisation sont étudiées en utilisant les données de l'inventaire forestier de l'Etat de Vaud. Tout d'abord sont évalués les effets de cinq méthodes de sélection pas-à-pas sur la performance, la stabilité et la parcimonie des modèles. Dans le même article sont également évalués: l'effet de la pondération des absences afin d'assurer une prévalence de 0.5 lors de la calibration du modèle; l'effet de limiter les absences au-delà de l'enveloppe définie par les présences; quatre méthodes différentes pour l'intégration de l'autocorrélation spatiale; et enfin, l'effet de l'intégration d'interactions entre facteurs. Les résultats présentés dans cet article ont permis d'améliorer l'outil GRASP qui intègre désonnais de nouvelles méthodes de sélection et la possibilité de traiter les interactions entre variables explicatives, ainsi que l'autocorrélation spatiale. La contribution de différentes sources de données issues de la télédétection a également été évaluée. Le deuxième article (en voie de soumission) explore les effets combinés de la taille de l'échantillon et de la post-stratification sur le la précision des modèles. Les données utilisées ici sont celles concernant la répartition des prairies de Suisse recueillies dans le cadre du projet Landspot et complétées par d'autres sources. Pour la stratification des données, différents cadres spatiaux ont été comparés. En particulier, la stratification environnementale par les domaines environnementaux de Suisse a été comparée à la stratification géographique par les régions biogéographiques ou par les cantons. Le troisième article (en voie de soumission) évalue la contribution de communautés végétales pré-modélisées à la modélisation de la faune. C'est une approche en deux étapes qui combine les disciplines de l'écologie des communautés et de l'écologie spatiale en intégrant leurs concepts de 'habitat' respectifs. Les communautés végétales sont modélisées d'abord, puis ces unités de 'habitat' sont utilisées pour modéliser les espèces animales. Une étude de cas est présentée avec des communautés prairiales et des espèces de papillons. Différentes façons d'intégrer l'information sur la végétation dans les modèles de répartition des papillons sont évaluées. Enfin, un clin d'oeil aux changements climatiques dans le dernier article, publié dans Ecological Modelling. Cet article propose un cadre conceptuel pour l'analyse des changements dans la distribution des espèces qui comprend notamment un catalogue des différentes formes possibles de changement le long d'un gradient d'élévation ou autre gradient environnemental, et une méthode quantitative améliorée pour identifier et décrire ces déplacements. Cette méthodologie a été développée en utilisant des données issues du monitoring des oiseaux nicheurs répandus et l'article présente les résultats concernant les déplacements observés dans la distribution altitudinale des oiseaux nicheurs en Suisse.L'objectif général de cette thèse est d'améliorer les modèles de distribution des espèces en tant que source d'information possible pour les différents outils de conservation (par exemple, listes rouges, réseaux écologiques, évaluation des risques de propagation d'espèces envahissantes, évaluation de la vulnérabilité des espèces dans le contexte de changement climatique). Bien que ces questions de conservation ne soient pas directement testées dans cette thèse, l'importance des améliorations proposées pour la modélisation de la distribution des espèces est discutée à la fin de ce travail dans le contexte de la sélection de réseaux de réserves.

Report on a collection of Lutzomyia sand flies (Diptera: Psychodidae) from the middle Solimões (Amazonas, Brazil)

Fifty-two species of Lutzomyia sand flies were identified in contemporaneous samples totalling only 1875 individuals, collected at the same site in tall primary terra-firme rainforest, near the south bank of the Solimões River. The most abundant species belonged to the subgenera Trichophoromyia and Nyssomyia. The subgenera Psathyromyia, Nyssomyia and Psychodopygus represented the greatest number of species. A new, aberrant species of the subgenus Psathyromyia (L. cultellata) and the female of Lu. souzacastroi are described. The Phlebotominae are proposed as a suitable indicator group for biogeographic and diversity studies.

Multimodel inference and multimodel averaging in empirical modeling of occupational exposure levels.

Empirical modeling of exposure levels has been popular for identifying exposure determinants in occupational hygiene. Traditional data-driven methods used to choose a model on which to base inferences have typically not accounted for the uncertainty linked to the process of selecting the final model. Several new approaches propose making statistical inferences from a set of plausible models rather than from a single model regarded as 'best'. This paper introduces the multimodel averaging approach described in the monograph by Burnham and Anderson. In their approach, a set of plausible models are defined a priori by taking into account the sample size and previous knowledge of variables influent on exposure levels. The Akaike information criterion is then calculated to evaluate the relative support of the data for each model, expressed as Akaike weight, to be interpreted as the probability of the model being the best approximating model given the model set. The model weights can then be used to rank models, quantify the evidence favoring one over another, perform multimodel prediction, estimate the relative influence of the potential predictors and estimate multimodel-averaged effects of determinants. The whole approach is illustrated with the analysis of a data set of 1500 volatile organic compound exposure levels collected by the Institute for work and health (Lausanne, Switzerland) over 20 years, each concentration having been divided by the relevant Swiss occupational exposure limit and log-transformed before analysis. Multimodel inference represents a promising procedure for modeling exposure levels that incorporates the notion that several models can be supported by the data and permits to evaluate to a certain extent model selection uncertainty, which is seldom mentioned in current practice.

Obesity Weighting up the Evidence: All-Island Multisectoral Conference on Obesity

The World Health Organization reports that overweight and obesity have reached epidemic proportions globally and estimates that approximately 1.6 billion adults and at least 20 million children under the age of five are overweight or obese. It is accepted that being overweight or obese increases the risk of health conditions such as heart disease, stroke, diabetes and some cancers and has significant impacts on a wide range of other factors including education, employment and emotional wellbeing. This conference aimed to present a multisectoral audience with the latest developments in overweight and obesity prevention and management. This presentation was given by Dr. Kevin Balanda, Institute of Public Health in Ireland. The Institute of Public Health in Ireland (IPH) is leading the development of an All-Ireland obesity observatory The obesity observatory development is being undertaken in collaboration with: - HRB Centre for Health and Diet Research ﾖ UCC /UCD - Centre of Excellence for Public Health (NI) - QUB Projected outcomes: Adequate sample size Data to be sought and recorded Usefulness of a database in influencing policy Value to clinicians in management of obesity

Isoenzyme profiles of Trypanosoma cruzi stocks from different areas of Paraguay

Twenty one Trypanosoma cruzi stocks from humans, domiciliary triatomines and one sylvatic animal of different areas of Paraguay were subjected to isoenzyme analysis. Thirteen enzyme systems (15 loci in total) were studied. MN cl2 (clonets 39) and SO34 cl4 (clonets 20) were used as references. Relationships between stocks were depicted by an UPGMA dendrogram constructed using the Jaccard´s distances matrix. Among the Paraguayan stocks 14 zymodemes were identified (Par1 to Par14), Par 5 being the most frequent. Polymorphism rate and clonal diversity were 0.73 and 0.93, respectively. Average number of alleles per polymorphic locus was 2.5 (range 2-4). These measurements show a high diversity, which is confirmed by the dendrogram topology. All stocks belong to the same lineage, as MN cl2 reference strain (T. cruzi II). Moreover three distinct subgroups were identified and two of them correspond to Brazilian and Bolivian zymodemes, respectively. The third subgroup, the most common in Paraguay, is related to Tulahuen stock. The large geographical distribution of some zymodemes agrees with the hypothesis of clonality for T. cruzi populations. However sample size was not adequate to detect genetic recombination in any single locality.