Age model, radiocarbon dates and dinoflagellate cyst measurements from sediment core DA06-139G

A marine sediment core from Vaigat in Disko Bugt, West Greenland, has been analysed in terms of lithology, dinoflagellate cysts and foraminifera in order to evaluate the influence of oceanographic variability on West Greenland glacier stability. The data show that during the past 5200 years the Atlantic foraminiferal abundance in the subsurface waters of the West Greenland Current (WGC) episodically increased, indicating periods of increases in the inflow of subsurface warm Atlantic water at 2000 - 1500 cal. yr BP and 1300 cal. yr BP as well as periods of less pronounced increased bottom-water temperatures around 4700 - 4000 cal. yr BP, 3100 - 2800, 2600, 1000 - 800, 500 - 400, and at 200 cal. yr. The sedimentological and dinoflagellate cyst data indicate that these episodes with enhanced advection of Irminger Sea-derived waters are accompanied by increased iceberg rafting, which we link to increased iceberg calving in relation to destabilization of the Jakobshavn Isbrae. The long-term trend in the data documents the end of a late-Holocene Thermal Maximum between 5200 and 4300 cal. yr BP and a final onset of the Neoglaciation at 3500 cal. yr BP. Increased responses of the iceberg rafting after 3500 cal. yr BP, reflects a westward/seaward advance of the glacier margin in relation to onset of Neoglaciation and a development of the glacier into a floating tongue after 2000 cal. yr BP. A comparison of our record with a record from the eastern North Atlantic indicates that a NAO-like anomaly pattern between subsurface waters in West Greenland and atmospheric temperature in the Eastern North Atlantic may have been operating during most of the late Holocene. However, during the past 1000 years the NAO signal may have weakened as some other mode of climate variability overprints the anti-phase climate signal in this region.

Solar sensitivity experiments for the pre-industrial time period using the comprehensive global climate model CCSM3 (Community Climate System Model 3)

The Southern Hemisphere Westerly Winds (SWW) constitute an important zonal circulation that influences large-scale precipitation patterns and ocean circulation. Variations in their intensity and latitudinal position have been suggested to exert a strong influence on the CO2 budget in the Southern Ocean, thus making them a potential factor affecting the global climate. The possible influence of solar forcing on SWW variability during the Holocene is addressed. Solar sensitivity experiments with a comprehensive global climate model (CCSM3) are carried out to study the response of SWW to solar variability. In addition, It is shown that a high-resolution iron record from the Chilean continental slope (41° S), which is interpreted to reflect changes in the position of the SWW, is significantly correlated with reconstructed solar activity during the past 3000 years. Taken together, the proxy and model results suggest that centennial-scale periods of lower (higher) solar activity caused equatorward (southward) shifts of the annual mean SWW.

Age model and stable isotopes of sediment core RC17-177

A careful comparison is made between the most detailed records of sea level over the last glacial cycle, and two high-quality oxygen isotope records. One is a high-resolution benthonic record that contains superb detail but proves to record temperature change as well as ice volume; the other is a planktonic record from the west equatorial Pacific where the temperature effect may be minimal but where high resolution is not available. A combined record is generated which may be a better approximation to ice volume than was previously available. This approach cannot yet be applied to the whole Pleistocene. However, comparison of glacial extremes suggests that glacial extremes of stages 12 and 16 significantly exceeded the last glacial maximum as regards ice volume and hence as regards sea level lowering. Interglacial stages 7, 13, 15, 17 and 19 did not attain Holocene oxygen isotope values; possibly the sea did not reach its present level. It is unlikely that sea level was glacio-eustatically higher than present by more than a few metres during any interglacial of the past 2.5 million years.

Age model of ODP Site 184-1146 (Table 1)

Clay mineral assemblages at ODP Site 1146 in the northern South China Sea are used to investigate sediment source and transport processes and to evaluate the evolution of the East Asian monsoon over the past 2 Myr. Clay minerals consist mainly of illite (22-43%) and smectite (12-48%), with associated chlorite (10-30%), kaolinite (2-18%), and random mixed-layer clays (5-22%). Hydrodynamic and mineralogical studies indicate that illite and chlorite sources include Taiwan and the Yangtze River, that smectite and mixed-layer clays originate predominantly from Luzon and Indonesia, and that kaolinite is primarily derived from the Pearl River. Mineral assemblages indicate strong glacial-interglacial cyclicity, with high illite, chlorite, and kaolinite content during glacials and high smectite and mixed-layer clay content during interglacials. During interglacials, summer enhanced monsoon (southwesterly) currents transport more smectite and mixed-layer clays to Site 1146 whereas during glacials, enhanced winter monsoon (northerly) currents transport more illite and chlorite from Taiwan and the Yangtze River. The ratio (smectite+mixed layers)/(illite+chlorite) was adopted as a proxy for East Asian monsoon variability. Higher ratios indicate strengthened summer-monsoon winds and weakened winter-monsoon winds during interglacials. In contrast, lower ratios indicate a strongly intensified winter monsoon and weakened summer monsoon during glacials. Spectral analysis indicates the mineral ratio was dominantly forced by monsoon variability prior to the development of large-scale glaciation at 1.2 Myr and by both monsoon variability and the effects of changing sea level in the interval 1.2 Myr to present.

Age model and ostracod countings from IODP Site 306-U1314

We present a detailed study of glacial/interglacial deep sea benthic ostracod assemblage variability at IODP Site U1314 (subpolar North Atlantic) in relation to the history of ice-rafting events and changes in deep ocean circulation over the past 170 ky. Our records of ostracod diversity, abundance and dissolution and sediment properties (IRD and CaCO3) show an excellent correspondence to high amplitude orbital and millennial variability observed in the climate records (d13C and d18O) from neighboring deep water sites, suggesting that the benthic meiofauna fluctuates synchronously with the prevailing oceanographic conditions (surface ocean conditions, deep ocean circulation and water temperature and food flux). Krithe (dominant), Argilloecia and Cytheropteron are the most abundant and diverse genera in association with Rockallia enigmatica. Three ostracod assemblages are recognized. The genera Pennyella, Argilloecia, Pelecocythere, Ambocythere, Pseudobosquetina, Bradleya and Nannocythere are associated with interglacials and interstadials, and possibly reflect increased flux of food to the sediments and more vigorous NADW formation. A transitional assemblage composed of species of Cytheropteron, Xestoleberis and Eucythere is restricted to climatic transitions and indicate moderate environmental conditions and seasonal productivity. A glacial/stadial assemblage is characterized by a temporal predominance of either intermediate-depth and shallow water Arctic/subarctic species (belonging to Cytheropteron, Polycope, Pedicythere, Swainocythere, Cluthia, Heterocyprideis, Elofsonella and Finmarchinella) or abyssal North Atlantic ostracods (Bythocythere, Dutoitella, Bathycythere and Bythocypris). The influx of high latitude taxa can be partially explained by ice-rafting, but may also represent a shift of the location of intermediate and deep water convection to the area south of Iceland. Therefore the combination of species characteristic of different watermasses during glacials may reflect shifts in the influence of high nutrient southern source water (e.g. AABW) vs. low nutrient GNAIW during glacials.

Morphological variability of Globorotalia menardii in DSDP Sites 68-502 and 68-503

Variability in the test of Globorotalia menardii during the past 8 million years has been investigated at DSDP Site 502A (Caribbean Sea) and DSDP Site 503A (Eastern Equatorial Pacific). Measurements were made of spire height (delta x), maximum diameter (delta y), the tangent angles of the upper and lower peripheral keels (phi 1, phi 2, respectively), the number of chambers in the final whorl, and the area of the silhouette in keel view. Four morphotypes alpha, beta, gamma, and delta were distinguished. Morphotype alpha was found in strata ranging in age from the Late Miocene through the Holocene. It shows a continuous increase in delta x and delta y until the Late Pleistocene. During and after the final closure of the ancient Central American Seaway (between 2.4 Ma and 1.8 Ma) there was a rapid increase in the area of the test in keel view. At the Caribbean Sea site, morphotype beta evolved during the past 0.22 Ma. It is less inflated than alpha and has a more delicate test. In the morphospace of delta x vs. delta y, morphotypes alpha and beta can be distinguished by a separation line delta y = 3.2 * delta x - 160 (delta x and delta y in µm). Plots of morphotype alpha are below that line, those of beta are above it. Morphotype alpha is taken to be Globorotalia menardii menardii Parker, Jones & Brady (1865) and includes G. menardii 'A' Bolli (1970). Morphotype beta is identified as G. menardii cultrata (d'Orbigny). Morphotypes gamma and delta are extinct Upper Miocene to Pliocene forms which evolved from morphotype alpha. They have a narrower phi 1 angle and more chambers (>=7) than morphotype alpha commonly with 5 to 6 chambers (7 in transitional forms). In contemporaneous samples morphotype delta can be distinguished from gamma by a smaller value of phi 1 and 8 or more chambers in the final whorl. Morphotype gamma is taken to be G. limbata (Fornasini, 1902) and includes the junior synonym G. menardii 'B' Bolli (1970). Morphotype delta is G. multicamerata Cushman & Jarvis (1930). With the exception of the Late Pleistocene development of G. menardii cultrataonly in the Caribbean the morphological changes of G. menardii at DSDP Sites 502A and 503A are similar. The development from the ancestral G. menardii menardii of the G. limbata - G. multicamerata lineage during the Pliocene and of G. menardii cultrata during the Late Pleistocene suggests responses at the two sites to a changing palaeoceanography during and after the formation of the Isthmus of Panama.

Inheritance of early Archaean Pb-isotope variability from long-lived Hadean protocrust

Comparison of initial Pb-isotope signatures of several early Archaean (3.65-3.82 Ga) lithologies (orthogneisses and metasediments) and minerals (feldspar and galena) documents the existence of substantial isotopic heterogeneity in the early Archaean, particularly in the Pb-207/Pb-204 ratio. The magnitude of isotopic variability at 3.82-3.65 Ga requires source separation between 4.3 and 4.1 Ga, depending on the extent of U/Pb fractionation possible in the early Earth. The isotopic heterogeneity could reflect the coexistence of enriched and depleted mantle domains or the separation of a terrestrial protocrust with a U-238/Pb-204 (mu) that was ca. 20-30% higher than coeval mantle. We prefer this latter explanation because the high-p signature is most evident in metasediments (that formed at the Earth's surface). This interpretation is strengthened by the fact that no straightforward mantle model can be constructed for these high-mu lithologies without violating bulk silicate Earth constraints. The Pb-isotope evidence for a long-lived protocrust complements similar Hf-isotope data from the Earth's oldest zircons, which also require an origin from an enriched (low Lu/Hf) environment. A model is developed in which greater than or equal to3.8-Ga tonalite and monzodiorite gneiss precursors (for one of which we provide zircon U-Pb data) are not mantle-derived but formed by remelting or differentiation of ancient (ca. 4.3 Ga) basaltic crust which had evolved with a higher U/Pb ratio than coeval mantle in the absence of the subduction process. With the initiation of terrestrial subduction at, we propose, ca. 3.75 Ga, most of the greater than or equal to3.8-Ga basaltic shell (and its differentiation products) was recycled into the mantle, because of the lack of a stabilising mantle lithosphere. We argue that the key event for preservation of all greater than or equal to3.8-Ga terrestrial crust was the intrusion of voluminous granitoids immediately after establishment of global subduction because of complementary creation of a lithospheric keel. Furthermore, we argue that preservation of !3.8-Ga material (in situ rocks and zircons) globally is restricted to cratons with a high U/Pb source character (North Atlantic, Slave, Zimbabwe, Yilgarn, and Wyoming), and that the Pb-isotope systematics of these provinces are ultimately explained by reworking of material that was derived from ca. 4.3 Ga (i.e. Hadean) basaltic crust.

Quantitative justification for target concentration intervention - parameter variability and predictive performance using population pharmacokinetic models for aminoglycosides

Aims [1] To quantify the random and predictable components of variability for aminoglycoside clearance and volume of distribution [2] To investigate models for predicting aminoglycoside clearance in patients with low serum creatinine concentrations [3] To evaluate the predictive performance of initial dosing strategies for achieving an aminoglycoside target concentration. Methods Aminoglycoside demographic, dosing and concentration data were collected from 697 adult patients (>=20 years old) as part of standard clinical care using a target concentration intervention approach for dose individualization. It was assumed that aminoglycoside clearance had a renal and a nonrenal component, with the renal component being linearly related to predicted creatinine clearance. Results A two compartment pharmacokinetic model best described the aminoglycoside data. The addition of weight, age, sex and serum creatinine as covariates reduced the random component of between subject variability (BSVR) in clearance (CL) from 94% to 36% of population parameter variability (PPV). The final pharmacokinetic parameter estimates for the model with the best predictive performance were: CL, 4.7 l h(-1) 70 kg(-1); intercompartmental clearance (CLic), 1 l h(-1) 70 kg(-1); volume of central compartment (V-1), 19.5 l 70 kg(-1); volume of peripheral compartment (V-2) 11.2 l 70 kg(-1). Conclusions Using a fixed dose of aminoglycoside will achieve 35% of typical patients within 80-125% of a required dose. Covariate guided predictions increase this up to 61%. However, because we have shown that random within subject variability (WSVR) in clearance is less than safe and effective variability (SEV), target concentration intervention can potentially achieve safe and effective doses in 90% of patients.

A simple regional-scale model for forecasting sorghum yield across North-Eastern Australia

Sorghum is the main dryland summer crop in NE Australia and a number of agricultural businesses would benefit from an ability to forecast production likelihood at regional scale. In this study we sought to develop a simple agro-climatic modelling approach for predicting shire (statistical local area) sorghum yield. Actual shire yield data, available for the period 1983-1997 from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, were used to train the model. Shire yield was related to a water stress index (SI) that was derived from the agro-climatic model. The model involved a simple fallow and crop water balance that was driven by climate data available at recording stations within each shire. Parameters defining the soil water holding capacity, maximum number of sowings (MXNS) in any year, planting rainfall requirement, and critical period for stress during the crop cycle were optimised as part of the model fitting procedure. Cross-validated correlations (CVR) ranged from 0.5 to 0.9 at shire scale. When aggregated to regional and national scales, 78-84% of the annual variation in sorghum yield was explained. The model was used to examine trends in sorghum productivity and the approach to using it in an operational forecasting system was outlined. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A simulation model of cereal-legume intercropping systems for semi-arid regions II. Model application

Smallholder farmers in Africa practice traditional cropping techniques such as intercropping. Intercropping is thought to offer higher productivity and resource milisation than sole cropping. In this study, risk associated with maize-bean intercropping was evaluated by quantifying long-term yield in both intercropping and sole cropping in a semi-arid region of South Africa (Bloemfontein, Free State) with reference to rainfall variability. The crop simulation model was run with different cultural practices (planting date and plant density) for 52 summer crop growing seasons (1950/1951-2001/2002). Eighty-one scenarios, consisted of three levels of initial soil water, planting date, maize population, and bean population, were simulated. From the simulation outputs, the total land equivalent ratio (LER) was greater than one. The intercrop (equivalent to sole maize) had greater energy value (EV) than sole beans, and the intercrop (equivalent to sole beans) had greater monetary value (MV) than sole maize. From these results, it can be concluded that maize-bean intercropping is advantageous for this semi-arid region. Soil water at planting was the most important factor of all scenario factors, followed by planting date. Irrigation application at planting, November/December planting and high plant density of maize for EV and beans for MV can be one of the most effective cultural practices in the study region. With regard to rainfall variability, seasonal (October-April) rainfall positively affected EV and MV, but not LER. There was more intercrop production in La Nina years than in El Nino years. Thus, better cultural practices may be selected to maximize maize-bean intercrop yields for specific seasons in the semi-arid region based on the global seasonal outlook. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Mixture model with random-effects components for clustering correlated gene-expression profiles

Motivation: The clustering of gene profiles across some experimental conditions of interest contributes significantly to the elucidation of unknown gene function, the validation of gene discoveries and the interpretation of biological processes. However, this clustering problem is not straightforward as the profiles of the genes are not all independently distributed and the expression levels may have been obtained from an experimental design involving replicated arrays. Ignoring the dependence between the gene profiles and the structure of the replicated data can result in important sources of variability in the experiments being overlooked in the analysis, with the consequent possibility of misleading inferences being made. We propose a random-effects model that provides a unified approach to the clustering of genes with correlated expression levels measured in a wide variety of experimental situations. Our model is an extension of the normal mixture model to account for the correlations between the gene profiles and to enable covariate information to be incorporated into the clustering process. Hence the model is applicable to longitudinal studies with or without replication, for example, time-course experiments by using time as a covariate, and to cross-sectional experiments by using categorical covariates to represent the different experimental classes. Results: We show that our random-effects model can be fitted by maximum likelihood via the EM algorithm for which the E(expectation) and M(maximization) steps can be implemented in closed form. Hence our model can be fitted deterministically without the need for time-consuming Monte Carlo approximations. The effectiveness of our model-based procedure for the clustering of correlated gene profiles is demonstrated on three real datasets, representing typical microarray experimental designs, covering time-course, repeated-measurement and cross-sectional data. In these examples, relevant clusters of the genes are obtained, which are supported by existing gene-function annotation. A synthetic dataset is considered too.

A neuro-mechanical model for interpersonal coordination

The present study investigates the coordination between two people oscillating handheld pendulums, with a special emphasis on the influence of the mechanical properties of the effector systems involved. The first part of the study is an experiment in which eight pairs of participants are asked to coordinate the oscillation of their pendulum with the other participant's in an in-phase or antiphase fashion. Two types of pendulums, A and B, having different resonance frequencies (Freq A=0.98 Hz and Freq B=0.64 Hz), were used in different experimental combinations. Results confirm that the preferred frequencies produced by participants while manipulating each pendulum individually were close to the resonance frequencies of the pendulums. In their attempt to synchronize with one another, participants met at common frequencies that were influenced by the mechanical properties of the two pendulums involved. In agreement with previous studies, both the variability of the behavior and the shift in the intended relative phase were found to depend on the task-effector asymmetry, i.e., the difference between the mechanical properties of the effector systems involved. In the second part of the study, we propose a model to account for these results. The model consists of two cross-coupled neuro-mechanical units, each composed of a neural oscillator driving a wrist-pendulum system. Taken individually, each unit reproduced the natural tendency of the participants to freely oscillate a pendulum close to its resonance frequency. When cross-coupled through the vision of the pendulum of the other unit, the two units entrain each other and meet at a common frequency influenced by the mechanical properties of the two pendulums involved. The ability of the proposed model to address the other effects observed as a function of the different conditions of the pendulum and intended mode of coordination is discussed.

Explaining point variability in the eastern Victoria river region, northern territory

This paper constructs a reduction sequence model for north Australian points from the eastern Victoria River region, and identifies a single continuum linking unifacial and bifacial point forms, with some divergence from this single reduction trajectory dependent upon artefact size. Chronological changes in reduction intensity between 5,000BP and the present are found to coincide with typological variation in points as well as changing emphasis on the extendibility of point reduction. It is suggested that changes in the extendibility of point reduction can be linked to intensified ENSO-driven climatic variability in the late Holocene that likely increased economic risk and warranted a substantial technological response, including the use of retouched toolkits with potential for longer use-lives.