Multiplication and comultiplication of beliefs

Multiplication and comultiplication of beliefs represent a generalisation of multiplication and comultiplication of probabilities as well as of binary logic AND and OR. Our approach follows that of subjective logic, where belief functions are expressed as opinions that are interpreted as being equivalent to beta probability distributions. We compare different types of opinion product and coproduct, and show that they represent very good approximations of the analytical product and coproduct of beta probability distributions. We also define division and codivision of opinions, and compare our framework with other logic frameworks for combining uncertain propositions. (C) 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Explaining landholders' decisions about riparian zone management: The role of behavioural, normative, and control beliefs

Water quality is a key concern in the current global environment, with the need to promote practices that help to protect water quality, such as riparian zone management, being paramount. The present study used the theory of planned behaviour as a framework for understanding how beliefs influence decisions about riparian zone management. Respondents completed a survey that assessed their behavioural, normative, and control beliefs in relation to intentions to manage riparian zones on their property. The results of the study showed that, overall, landholders with strong intentions to manage their riparian zones differed significantly in terms of their beliefs compared to landholders who had weak intentions to manage their riparian zones. Strong intentions to manage riparian zones were associated with a favourable cost-benefit analysis, greater perceptions of normative support for the practice and lower perceptions of the extent to which barriers would impede management of riparian zones. It was also evident that willingness to comply with the recommendations of salient referents, beliefs about the benefits of riparian zone management and perceptions of the extent to which barriers would impede riparian zone management were most important for determining intentions to manage riparian zones. Implications for policy and extension practice are discussed. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A genetically informed study of the processes underlying the association between parental marital instability and offspring adjustment

Parental divorce is associated with problematic offspring adjustment, but the relation may be due to shared genetic or environmental factors. One way to test for these confounds is to study offspring of twins discordant for divorce. The current analyses used this design to separate the mechanisms responsible for the association between parental divorce, experienced either before or after the age of 16, and offspring well-being. The results were consistent with a causal role of divorce in earlier initiation of sexual intercourse and emotional difficulties, in addition to a greater probability of educational problems, depressed mood, and suicidal ideation. In contrast, the increased risk for cohabitation and earlier initiation of drug use was explained by selection factors, including genetic confounds.

Bad apples in bad barrels revisited: Cognitive moral development, just world beliefs, rewards, and ethical decision-making

In this study, we test the interactive effect on ethical decision-making of (1) personal characteristics, and (2) personal expectancies based on perceptions of organizational rewards and punishments. Personal characteristics studied were cognitive moral development and belief in a just world. Using an in-basket simulation, we found that exposure to reward system information influenced managers' outcome expectancies. Further, outcome expectancies and belief in a just world interacted with managers' cognitive moral development to influence managers' ethical decision-making. In particular, low-cognitive moral development managers who expected that their organization condoned unethical behavior made less ethical decisions while high cognitive moral development managers became more ethical in this environment. Low cognitive moral development managers also behaved less ethically when their belief in a just world was high.

Mechanisms underlying the diminished sensitivity to prolactin negative feedback during lactation: Reduced STAT5 signaling and up-regulation of cytokine-inducible SH2 domain-containing protein (CIS) expression in tuberoinfundibular dopaminergic neurons

Hyperprolactinaemia during lactation is a consequence of the sucking stimulus and in part due to reduced prolactin (PRL) negative feedback. To date, the mechanisms involved in this diminished sensitivity to PRL feedback are unknown but may involve changes in PRL signal transduction within tuberoinfundibular dopaminergic (TIDA) neurons. Therefore, we investigated signal transducers and activators of transcription (STAT) 5 signaling in the TIDA neurons of lactating rats. Dual-label confocal immunofluorescence studies were used to determine the intracellular distribution of STAT5 within TIDA neurons in the dorsomedial arcuate nucleus. In lactating rats with pups removed for 16 h, injection of ovine PRL significantly (P < 0.05) increased the STAT5 nuclear/cytoplasmic ratio compared with vehicle-treated mothers. In contrast, ovine PRL injection did not increase the STAT5 nuclear/cytoplasmic ratio in lactating mothers with pups, demonstrating that PRL signal transduction through STAT5 is reduced in TIDA neurons in the presence of pups. To investigate possible mechanisms involved in reduced PRL signaling, we examined the expression of suppressors of cytokine signaling (SOCS) proteins. Northern analysis on whole hypothalamus showed that CIS (cytokine-inducible SH2 domain-containing protein), but not SOCS1 or SOCS3, mRNA expression was significantly (P < 0.01) up-regulated in suckled lactating rats. Semiquantitative RT-PCR on arcuate nucleus micropunches also showed up-regulation of CIS transcripts. Immunofluorescence studies demonstrated that CIS is expressed in all TIDA neurons in the dorsomedial arcuate nucleus, and the intensity of CIS staining in these neurons is significantly (P < 0.05) increased in lactating rats with sucking pups. Together, these results support the hypothesis that loss of sensitivity to PRL-negative feedback during lactation is a result of increased CIS expression in TIDA neurons.

Safety behaviors and dysfunctional beliefs about sleep: Testing a cognitive model of the maintenance of insomnia

Objective: Our aim was to determine if insomnia severity, dysfunctional beliefs about sleep, and depression predicted sleep-related safety behaviors. Method: Standard sleep-related measures (such as the Insomnia Severity Index; the Dysfunctional Beliefs About Sleep scale; the Depression, Anxiety, and Stress Scale; and the Sleep-Related Behaviors Questionnaire) were administered. Additionally, 14 days of sleep diary (Pittsburg Sleep Diary) data and actual use of sleep-related behaviors were collected. Results: Regression analysis revealed that dysfunctional beliefs about sleep predicted sleep-related safety behaviors. Insomnia severity did not predict sleep-related safety behaviors. Depression accounted for the greatest amount of unique variance in the prediction of safety behaviors, followed by dysfunctional beliefs. Exploratory analysis revealed that participants with higher levels of depression used more sleep-related behaviors and reported greater dysfunctional beliefs about their sleep. Conclusion: The findings underlie the significant influence that dysfunctional beliefs have on individuals' behaviors. Moreover, the results suggest that depression may need to be considered as an explicit component of cognitive-behavioral models of insomnia. (c) 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The role of alcohol expectancy and drinking refusal self-efficacy beliefs in university student drinking

Aims: University student alcohol misuse is a considerable problem. Alcohol expectancy research has contributed significantly to our understanding of problem drinking in young adults. Most of this research has investigated positive expectancy alone. The current study utilized two measures of alcohol expectancy, the alcohol expectancy questionnaire (AEQ) and the drinking expectancy profile [consisting of the drinking expectancy questionnaire (DEQ) and the drinking refusal self-efficacy questionnaire] to predict severity of alcohol dependence, frequency of drinking, and the quantity of alcohol consumed per occasion. Methods: Measures of drinking behaviour and alcohol expectancy were completed by 174 undergraduate university students. Results: Positive alcohol expectancy factors accounted for significant variance in all three drinking indices, with the DEQ adding additional variance to AEQ scores on frequency and severity of alcohol dependence indices. Negative expectancy did not add incremental variance to the prediction of drinking behaviour in this sample. Drinking refusal self-efficacy and dependence beliefs added additional variance over positive and negative expectancies in the prediction of all three drinking parameters. Conclusions: Positive expectancy and drinking refusal self-efficacy were strongly related to university student drinking. The incorporation of expectancy as a means of informing prevention approaches in tertiary education shows promise.

The continuing use of complementary and alternative medicine in South Australia: costs and beliefs in 2004

Objective: To survey the use, cost, beliefs and quality of life of users of complementary and alternative medicine (CAM). Design: A representative population survey conducted in 2004 with longitudinal comparison to similar 1993 and 2000 surveys. Participants: 3015 South Australian respondents over the age of 15 years (71.7% participation). Results: In 2004, CAMs were used by 52.2% of the population. Greatest use was in women aged 25-34 years, with higher income and education levels. CAM therapists had been visited by 26.5% of the population. In those with children, 29.9% administered CAMs to them and 17.5% of the children had visited CAM therapists. The total extrapolated cost in Australia of CAMs and CAM therapists in 2004 was AUD$1.8 billion, which was a decrease from AUD$2.3 billion in 2000. CAMs were used mostly to maintain general health. The users of CAM had lower quality-of-life scores than non-users. Among CAM users, 49.7% used conventional medicines on the same day and 57.2% did not report the use of CAMs to their doctor. About half of the respondents assumed that CAMs were independently tested by a government agency; of these, 74.8% believed they were tested for quality and safety, 21.8% for what they claimed, and 17.9% for efficacy. Conclusions: Australians continue to use high levels of CAMs and CAM therapists. The public is often unaware that CAMs are not tested by the Therapeutic Goods Administration for efficacy or safety.

Measurement of community beliefs about colorectal cancer

Few educational campaigns have focused on bowel cancer, though studies have indicated that members of the community need and want current information about relevant issues. In order to facilitate research in this area, reliable and valid measures of community attitudes are needed. Content validity of a survey instrument was obtained through use of a Delphi process with Directors of Education from the Australia Cancer Council and focus group discussions with informed members of the public. The subsequent survey of community perceptions about colorectal cancer included a broad range of content areas related to the risk of bowel cancer, preventing and coping with bowel cancer and beliefs about susceptibility and severity. The construct validity of these content areas was investigated by use of a factor analysis and confirmation of an association with related predictor variables. Two measures related to personal influence and anticipated coping responses showed favourable psychometric properties, including moderate to high levels of internal consistency and test-retest reliability. A test of the concurrent validity of these measures requires further development of instruments related to colorectal cancer or adaptation of measures from other areas of health research. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Trait physiology and crop modelling to link phenotypic complexity to underlying genetic systems

New tools derived from advances in molecular biology have not been widely adopted in plant breeding because of the inability to connect information at gene level to the phenotype in a manner that is useful for selection. We explore whether a crop growth and development modelling framework can link phenotype complexity to underlying genetic systems in a way that strengthens molecular breeding strategies. We use gene-to-phenotype simulation studies on sorghum to consider the value to marker-assisted selection of intrinsically stable QTLs that might be generated by physiological dissection of complex traits. The consequences on grain yield of genetic variation in four key adaptive traits – phenology, osmotic adjustment, transpiration efficiency, and staygreen – were simulated for a diverse set of environments by placing the known extent of genetic variation in the context of the physiological determinants framework of a crop growth and development model. It was assumed that the three to five genes associated with each trait, had two alleles per locus acting in an additive manner. The effects on average simulated yield, generated by differing combinations of positive alleles for the traits incorporated, varied with environment type. The full matrix of simulated phenotypes, which consisted of 547 location-season combinations and 4235 genotypic expression states, was analysed for genetic and environmental effects. The analysis was conducted in stages with gradually increased understanding of gene-to-phenotype relationships, which would arise from physiological dissection and modelling. It was found that environmental characterisation and physiological knowledge helped to explain and unravel gene and environment context dependencies. We simulated a marker-assisted selection (MAS) breeding strategy based on the analyses of gene effects. When marker scores were allocated based on the contribution of gene effects to yield in a single environment, there was a wide divergence in rate of yield gain over all environments with breeding cycle depending on the environment chosen for the QTL analysis. It was suggested that knowledge resulting from trait physiology and modelling would overcome this dependency by identifying stable QTLs. The improved predictive power would increase the utility of the QTLs in MAS. Developing and implementing this gene-to-phenotype capability in crop improvement requires enhanced attention to phenotyping, ecophysiological modelling, and validation studies to test the stability of candidate QTLs.

Prophylactic HPV vaccines: Underlying mechanisms

Human papillomavirus virus-like particles (HPV VLP) can be generated by the synthesis and self-assembly in vitro of the major virus capsid protein L1. HPV L1 VLPs are morphologically and antigenically almost identical to native virions, and this technology has been exploited to produce HPV L1 VLP subunit vaccines. The vaccines elicit high titres of anti-L I VLP antibodies that persist at levels 10 times that of natural infections for at least 48 months. At present the assumption is that the protection achieved by these vaccines against incident HPV infection and HPV-associated ano-genital pathology is mediated via serum neutralising Immunoglobulin G (IgG). However, since there have been very few vaccine failures thus far, immune correlates of protection have not been established. The available evidence is that the immunodominant neutralising antibodies generated by L1 VLPs are type-specific and are not cross-neutralising, although highly homologous HPV pairs share minor cross-neutralisation epitopes. Important issues remaining to be addressed include the duration of protection and genotype replacement. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.