Briefing: re-engineering the city 2020–2050 – urban foresight and transition management

Cities may be responsible for up to 70% of global carbon emissions and 75% of global energy consumption and by 2050 it is estimated that 70% of the world's population could live in cities. The critical challenge for contemporary urbanism, therefore, is to understand how to develop the knowledge, capacity and capability for public agencies, the private sector and multiple users in city regions systemically to re-engineer their built environment and urban infrastructure in response to climate change and resource constraints. Re-Engineering the City 2020–2050: Urban Foresight and Transition Management (Retrofit 2050) is a major new interdisciplinary project funded under the Engineering and Physical Science Research Council's (EPSRC) Sustainable Urban Environments Programme which seeks to address this challenge. This briefing describes the background and conceptual framing of Retrofit 2050 project, its aims and objectives and research approach.

Arboreal thorn-dwelling ants use domatia morphology to partition nest sites on the savanna ant-plant, Vachellia erioloba

Nest site selection in arboreal, domatia-dwelling ants, particularly those coexisting on a single host plant, is little understood. To examine this phenomenon we studied the African savannah tree Vachellia erioloba, which hosts ants in swollen-thorn domatia. We found four ant species from different genera (Cataulacus intrudens, Tapinoma subtile, Tetraponera ambigua and an unidentified Crematogaster species). In contrast to other African ant plants, many V. erioloba trees (41 % in our survey) were simultaneously co-occupied by more than one ant species. Our study provides quantitative field data describing: (1) aspects of tree and domatia morphology relevant to supporting a community of mutualist ants, (2) how ant species occupancy varies with domatia morphology and (3) how ant colony size varies with domatia size and species. We found that Crematogaster sp. occupy the largest thorns, followed by C. intrudens, with T. subtile in the smallest thorns. Thorn age, as well as nest entrance hole size correlated closely with ant species occupant. These differing occupancy patterns may help to explain the unusual coexistence of three ant species on individual myrmecophytic trees. In all three common ant species, colony size, as measured by total number of ants, increased with domatia size. Additionally, domatia volume and species identity interact to predict ant numbers, suggesting differing responses between species to increased availability of nesting space. The proportion of total ants in nests that were immatures varied with thorn volume and species, highlighting the importance of domatia morphology in influencing colony structure.

Analysis of full-waveform LiDAR data for classification of an orange orchard scene

Full-waveform laser scanning data acquired with a Riegl LMS-Q560 instrument were used to classify an orange orchard into orange trees, grass and ground using waveform parameters alone. Gaussian decomposition was performed on this data capture from the National Airborne Field Experiment in November 2006 using a custom peak-detection procedure and a trust-region-reflective algorithm for fitting Gauss functions. Calibration was carried out using waveforms returned from a road surface, and the backscattering coefficient c was derived for every waveform peak. The processed data were then analysed according to the number of returns detected within each waveform and classified into three classes based on pulse width and c. For single-peak waveforms the scatterplot of c versus pulse width was used to distinguish between ground, grass and orange trees. In the case of multiple returns, the relationship between first (or first plus middle) and last return c values was used to separate ground from other targets. Refinement of this classification, and further sub-classification into grass and orange trees was performed using the c versus pulse width scatterplots of last returns. In all cases the separation was carried out using a decision tree with empirical relationships between the waveform parameters. Ground points were successfully separated from orange tree points. The most difficult class to separate and verify was grass, but those points in general corresponded well with the grass areas identified in the aerial photography. The overall accuracy reached 91%, using photography and relative elevation as ground truth. The overall accuracy for two classes, orange tree and combined class of grass and ground, yielded 95%. Finally, the backscattering coefficient c of single-peak waveforms was also used to derive reflectance values of the three classes. The reflectance of the orange tree class (0.31) and ground class (0.60) are consistent with published values at the wavelength of the Riegl scanner (1550 nm). The grass class reflectance (0.46) falls in between the other two classes as might be expected, as this class has a mixture of the contributions of both vegetation and ground reflectance properties.

City futures: exploring urban retrofit and sustainable transitions

Cities are responsible for up to 70% of global carbon emissions and 75% of global energy consumption. By 2050 it is estimated that 70% of the world's population will live in cities. The critical challenge for contemporary urbanism, therefore, is to understand how to develop the knowledge, capacity and capability for public agencies, the private sector and multiple users in city-regions (i.e. the city and its wider hinterland) to re-engineer systemically their built environment and urban infrastructure in response to climate change and resource constraints. To inform transitions to urban sustainability, key stakeholders' perceptions were sought though a participatory backcasting and scenario foresight process in order to illuminate challenging but realistic socio-technical scenarios for the systemic retrofit of core UK city-regions. The challenge of conceptualizing complex urban transitions is explored across multiple socio-technical ‘regimes’ (housing, non-domestic buildings, urban infrastructure), scales (building, neighbourhood, city-region), and domains (energy, water, use of resources) within a participatory process. The development of three archetypal ‘guiding visions’ of retrofit city-regional futures developed through this process are discussed, along with the contribution that such foresight processes might play in ‘opening up’ the governance and strategic navigation of urban sustainability.

Urban retrofitting: identifying disruptive and sustaining technologies using performative and foresight techniques

Cities, which are now inhabited by a majority of the world's population, are not only an important source of global environmental and resource depletion problems, but can also act as important centres of technological innovation and social learning in the continuing quest for a low carbon future. Planning and managing large-scale transitions in cities to deal with these pressures require an understanding of urban retrofitting at city scale. In this context performative techniques (such as backcasting and roadmapping) can provide valuable tools for helping cities develop a strategic view of the future. However, it is also important to identify ‘disruptive’ and ‘sustaining’ technologies which may contribute to city-based sustainability transitions. This paper presents research findings from the EPSRC Retrofit 2050 project, and explores the relationship between technology roadmaps and transition theory literature, highlighting the research gaps at urban/city level. The paper develops a research methodology to describe the development of three guiding visions for city-regional retrofit futures, and identifies key sustaining and disruptive technologies at city scale within these visions using foresight (horizon scanning) techniques. The implications of the research for city-based transition studies and related methodologies are discussed.

Combined use of satellite estimates and rain gauge observations to generate high-quality historical rainfall time series over Ethiopia

Climate data are used in a number of applications including climate risk management and adaptation to climate change. However, the availability of climate data, particularly throughout rural Africa, is very limited. Available weather stations are unevenly distributed and mainly located along main roads in cities and towns. This imposes severe limitations to the availability of climate information and services for the rural community where, arguably, these services are needed most. Weather station data also suffer from gaps in the time series. Satellite proxies, particularly satellite rainfall estimate, have been used as alternatives because of their availability even over remote parts of the world. However, satellite rainfall estimates also suffer from a number of critical shortcomings that include heterogeneous time series, short time period of observation, and poor accuracy particularly at higher temporal and spatial resolutions. An attempt is made here to alleviate these problems by combining station measurements with the complete spatial coverage of satellite rainfall estimates. Rain gauge observations are merged with a locally calibrated version of the TAMSAT satellite rainfall estimates to produce over 30-years (1983-todate) of rainfall estimates over Ethiopia at a spatial resolution of 10 km and a ten-daily time scale. This involves quality control of rain gauge data, generating locally calibrated version of the TAMSAT rainfall estimates, and combining these with rain gauge observations from national station network. The infrared-only satellite rainfall estimates produced using a relatively simple TAMSAT algorithm performed as good as or even better than other satellite rainfall products that use passive microwave inputs and more sophisticated algorithms. There is no substantial difference between the gridded-gauge and combined gauge-satellite products over the test area in Ethiopia having a dense station network; however, the combined product exhibits better quality over parts of the country where stations are sparsely distributed.

Megacities and climate change: a brief overview

Cities have developed into the hotspots of human economic activity. From the appearance of the first cities in the Neolithic to 21st century metropolis their impact on the environment has always been apparent. With more people living in cities than in rural environments now it becomes crucial to understand these environmental impacts. With the immergence of megacities in the 20th century and their continued growth in both, population and economic power, the environmental impact has reached the global scale. In this paper we examine megacity impacts on atmospheric composition and climate. We present basic concepts, discuss various definitions of footprints, summarize research on megacity impacts and assess the impact of megacity emissions on air quality and on the climate at the regional to global scale. The intention and ambition of this paper is to give a comprehensive but brief overview of the science with regard to megacities and the environment.

Enhanced Australian carbon sink despite increased wildfire during the 21st century

Climate projections show Australia becoming significantly warmer during the 21st century, and precipitation decreasing over much of the continent. Such changes are conventionally considered to increase wildfire risk. Nevertheless, we show that burnt area increases in southern Australia, but decreases in northern Australia. Overall the projected increase in fire is small (0.72–1.31% of land area, depending on the climate scenario used), and does not cause a decrease in carbon storage. In fact, carbon storage increases by 3.7–5.6 Pg C (depending on the climate scenario used). Using a process-based model of vegetation dynamics, vegetation–fire interactions and carbon cycling, we show increased fire promotes a shift to more fire-adapted trees in wooded areas and their encroachment into grasslands, with an overall increase in forested area of 3.9–11.9%. Both changes increase carbon uptake and storage. The increase in woody vegetation increases the amount of coarse litter, which decays more slowly than fine litter hence leading to a relative reduction in overall heterotrophic respiration, further reducing carbon losses. Direct CO2 effects increase woody cover, water-use efficiency and productivity, such that carbon storage is increased by 8.5–14.8 Pg C compared to simulations in which CO2 is held constant at modern values. CO2 effects tend to increase burnt area, fire fluxes and therefore carbon losses in arid areas, but increase vegetation density and reduce burnt area in wooded areas.

Urban-scale Environmental Prediction Systems

Weather, climate, water and related environmental conditions, including air quality, all have profound effects on cities. A growing importance is being attached to understanding and predicting atmospheric conditions and their interactions with other components of the Earth System in cities, at multiple scales. We highlight the need for: (1) development of high-resolution coupled environmental prediction models that include realistic city-specific processes, boundary conditions and fluxes; (2) enhanced observational systems to support (force, constrain, evaluate) these models to provide high quality forecasts for new urban services; (3) provision of meteorological and related environmental variables to aid protection of human health and the environment; (4) new targeted and customized delivery platforms using modern communication techniques, developed with users to ensure that services, advice and warnings result in appropriate action; and (5) development of new skill and capacity to make best use of technologies to deliver new services in complex, challenging and evolving city environments. We highlight the importance of a coordinated and strategic approach that draws on, but does not replicate, past work to maximize benefits to stakeholders.

Creativity, entrepreneurship and economic development: city-level evidence on creativity spillover of entrepreneurship

We examine the black box of creativity, entrepreneurship and economic development by asking about the mechanisms through which creativity can influence economic development in cities. We propose that, like the knowledge spillover theory of entrepreneurship, creativity spillovers occur and can be slowed by a creativity filter. We examine how creativity and entrepreneurship, and creativity and a melting pot environment, interact to influence urban economic development. Using data on 187 cities in 15 European countries for the period 1999–2009, we advance the extant literature by providing evidence on the existence and dynamics of a creativity filter.

Molecular phylogeny of tribe Rhipsalideae (Cactaceae) and taxonomic implications for Schlumbergera and Hatiora

Tribe Rhipsalideae is composed of unusual epiphytic or lithophytic cacti that inhabit humid tropical and subtropical forests. Members of this tribe present a reduced vegetative body, a specialized adventitious root system, usually spineless areoles and flowers and fruits reduced in size. Despite the debate surrounding the classification of Rhipsalideae, no studies have ever attempted to reconstruct phylogenetic relationships among its members or to test the monophyly of its genera using DNA sequence data; all classifications formerly proposed for this tribe have only employed morphological data. In this study, we reconstruct the phylogeny of Rhipsalideae using plastid (trnQ-rps16, rpl32-trnL, psbA-trnH) and nuclear (ITS) markers to evaluate the classifications previously proposed for the group. We also examine morphological features traditionally used to delimit genera within Rhipsalideae in light of the resulting phylogenetic trees. In total new sequences for 35 species of Rhipsalideae were produced (out of 55: 63%). The molecular phylogeny obtained comprises four main clades supporting the recognition of genera Lepismium, Rhipsalis, Hatiora and Schlumbergera. The evidence gathered indicate that a broader genus Schlumbergera, including Hatiora subg. Rhipsalidopsis, should be recognized. Consistent morphological characters rather than homoplastic features are used in order to establish a more coherent and practical classification for the group. Nomenclatural changes and a key for the identification of the genera currently included in Rhipsalideae are provided. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Re-imagining the museum: beyond the mausoleum

Through a range of case- studies, including studies from the UK, North America and Australia, this book moves away from the idea that museums are always "conservative" to suggest they have a long history of engaging with popular culture and addressing a variety of audiences. Andrea Whitcomb argues that museums are key mediators between high and popular culture and between government, media practitioners, cultural policy-makers and museums professionals. The book also analyses links between museums and the media, looks at the role of museums in cities and discusses the effects on museums of cultural policies.

Regional people more content : wellbeing index

Are you feeling happier, safer and are more connected to your community? You should be, if you're living in rural and regional Australia, according to the latest research from Deakin University. Nine of the top ten happiest electorates are in rural Australia, and all of them report feeling safer and having a stronger sense of belonging to their communities, compared to their city counterparts. Rural Social researcher from Charles Sturt University in Wagga, Margaret Alston, says even bad events like drought and bushfires tend to bring people together. "I'd have to agree that there are certain factors that actually lead to people in the country being on average happier than those in cities. The community where I live, we're just recovering from quite a significant bushfire. People have come forward and offered adjistment for stock for the affected farmers, there's been community drives to support the people who've lost their houses, some real moves from the community to make sure the incident didn't scar people unnecessarily." Deakin University researcher, Liz Eckerman, says when it comes to feeling connected to your community, rural and regional people come out on top. She also agrees difficult circumstances like drought often bring out the best sense of community.

Flowering ecology of a Box-Ironbark Eucalyptus community

Box-Ironbark forests occur on the inland hills of the Great Dividing Range in Australia, from western Victoria to southern Queensland. These dry, open forests are characteristically dominated by Eucalyptus species such as Red Ironbark E. tricarpa, Mugga Ironbark E. sideroxylon and Grey Box E. microcarpa. Within these forests, several Eucalyptus species are a major source of nectar for the blossom-feeding birds and marsupials that form a distinctive component of the fauna. In Victoria, approximately 83% of the original pre - European forests of the Box-Ironbark region have been cleared, and the remaining fragmented forests have been heavily exploited for gold and timber. This exploitation has lead to a change in the structure of these forests, from one dominated by large 80-100 cm diameter, widely -spaced trees to mostly small (≥40 cm DBH), more densely - spaced trees. This thesis examines the flowering ecology of seven Eucalyptus species within a Box-Ironbark community. These species are characteristic of Victorian Box-Ironbark forests; River Red Gum E. camaldulensis, Yellow Gum E. leucoxylon, Red Stringybark E. macrorhyncha, Yellow Box E. melliodora, Grey Box E. microcarpa, Red Box E. polyanthemos and Red Ironbark E. tricarpa. Specifically, the topics examined in this thesis are: (1) the floral character traits of species, and the extent to which these traits can be associated with syndromes of bird or insect pollination; (2) the timing, frequency, duration, intensity, and synchrony of flowering of populations and individual trees; (3) the factors that may explain variation in flowering patterns of individual trees through examination of the relationships between flowering and tree-specific factors of individually marked trees; (4) the influence of tree size on the flowering patterns of individually marked trees, and (5) the spatial and temporal distribution of the floral resources of a dominant species, E. tricarpa. The results are discussed in relation to the evolutionary processes that may have lead to the flowering patterns, and the likely effects of these flowering patterns on blossom-feeding fauna of the Box-Ironbark region. Flowering observations were made for approximately 100 individually marked trees for each species (a total of 754 trees). The flower cover of each tree was assessed at a mean interval of 22 (+ 0.6) days for three years; 1997, 1998 and 1999. The seven species of eucalypt each had characteristic flowering seasons, the timing of which was similar each year. In particular, the timing of peak flowering intensity was consistent between years. Other spatial and temporal aspects of flowering patterns for each species, including the percentage of trees that flowered, frequency of flowering, intensity of flowering and duration of flowering, displayed significant variation between years, between forest stands (sites) and between individual trees within sites. All seven species displayed similar trends in flowering phenology over the study, such that 1997 was a relatively 'poor' flowering year, 1998 a 'good' year and 1999 an 'average' year in this study area. The floral character traits and flowering seasons of the seven Eucalyptus species suggest that each species has traits that can be broadly associated with particular pollinator types. Differences between species in floral traits were most apparent between 'summer' and 'winter' flowering species. Winter - flowering species displayed pollination syndromes associated with bird pollination and summer -flowering species displayed syndromes more associated with insect pollination. Winter - flowering E. tricarpa and E. leucoxylon flowers, for example, were significantly larger, and contained significantly greater volumes of nectar, than those of the summer flowering species, such as E. camaldulensis and E. melliodom. An examination of environmental and tree-specific factors was undertaken to investigate relationships between flowering patterns of individually marked trees of E. microcarpa and E. tricarpa and a range of measures that may influence the observed patterns. A positive association with tree-size was the most consistent explanatory variable for variation between trees in the frequency and intensity of flowering. Competition from near-neighbours, tree health and the number of shrubs within the canopy area were also explanatory variables. The relationship between tree size and flowering phenology was further examined by using the marked trees of all seven species, selected to represent five size-classes. Larger trees (≥40 cm DBH) flowered more frequently, more intensely, and for a greater duration than smaller trees. Larger trees provide more abundant floral resources than smaller trees because they have more flowers per unit area of canopy, they have larger canopies in which more flowers can be supported, and they provide a greater abundance of floral resources over the duration of the flowering season. Heterogeneity in the distribution of floral resources was further highlighted by the study of flowering patterns of E. tricarpa at several spatial and temporal scales. A total of approximately 5,500 trees of different size classes were sampled for flower cover along transects in major forest blocks at each of five sample dates. The abundance of flowers varied between forest blocks, between transects and among tree size - classes. Nectar volumes in flowers of E. tricarpa were sampled. The volume of nectar varied significantly among flowers, between trees, and between forest stands. Mean nectar volume per flower was similar on each sample date. The study of large numbers of individual trees for each of seven species was useful in obtaining quantitative data on flowering patterns of species' populations and individual trees. The timing of flowering for a species is likely to be a result of evolutionary selective forces tempered by environmental conditions. The seven species' populations showed a similar pattern in the frequency and intensity of flowering between years (e.g. 1998 was a 'good' year for most species) suggesting that there is some underlying environmental influence acting on these aspects of flowering. For individual trees, the timing of flowering may be influenced by tree-specific factors that affect the ability of each tree to access soil moisture and nutrients. In turn, local weather patterns, edaphic and biotic associations are likely to influence the available soil moisture. The relationships between the timing of flowering and environmental conditions are likely to be complex. There was no evidence that competition for pollinators has a strong selective influence on the timing of flowering. However, as there is year-round flowering in this community, particular types of pollinators may be differentiated along a temporal gradient (e.g. insects in summer, birds in winter). This type of differentiation may have resulted in the co-evolution of floral traits and pollinator types, with flowers displaying adaptations that match the morphologies and energy requirements of the most abundant pollinators in any particular season. Spatial variation in flowering patterns was evident at several levels. This is likely to occur because of variation in climate, weather patterns, soil types, degrees of disturbance and biotic associations, which vary across the Box-Ironbark region. There was no consistency among sites between years in flowering patterns suggesting that factors affecting flowering at this level are complex. Blossom-feeding animals are confronted with a highly spatially and temporally patchy resource. This patchiness has been increased with human exploitation of these forests leading to a much greater abundance of small trees and fewer large trees. Blossom-feeding birds are likely to respond to this variation in different ways, depending upon diet-breadth, mobility and morphological and behavioural characteristics. Future conservation of the blossom-feeding fauna of Box-Ironbark forests would benefit from the retention of a greater number of large trees, the protection and enhancement of existing remnants, and revegetation with key species, such as E. leucoxylon, E. microcarpa and E. tricarpa. The selective clearing of summer flowering species, which occur on the more fertile areas, may have negatively affected the year-round abundance and distribution of floral resources. The unpredictability of the spatial distribution of flowering patches within the region means that all remnants are likely to be important foraging areas in some years.

Tomorrow’s car – for today’s people : can tilting three wheeled vehicles be a solution for the problems of today and the future?

The current automotive industry and todays car drivers are faced with every increasing challenges, not previously experienced. Climate Change, financial issues, rising fuel prices, increased traffic congestion and reduced parking space in cities are all leading to changes in consumer preferences and the requirements of modern passenger vehicles. However, despite the shift in the industry dynamics, the principal layout of a car hasn’t changed since its invention. The design of a ’conventional’ vehicle is still principally a matchbox with four wheels, one at each corner. The concept has served its purpose well for over 100 years, but such a layout is not suited to solving today’s problems. To address the range of problems faced by the industry, a number of alternative commuting vehicles have been developed. Yet the commercialization of these ‘alternative’ vehicles has yet to be successful. This is largely due failure of these vehicles to meet the changing demands of the industry and the limited understanding of consumer behaviour, motivation and attitudes. Deakin University’s Tomorrow’s Car concept tackles all of these problems. The vehicle is a novel three-wheeler cross over concept between a car and a motorbike that combines the best of both worlds. The vehicle combines the low cost, small size and ‘fun’ factor of a motorbike together with the safety, comfort and easy to drive features of a car produce a vehicle with a fuel efficiency better than either car or scooter. Intensive market research has been conducted for various major potential markets of alternative vehicles including India, China and Australia. The research analysed consumer attitudes in relation to narrow tilting vehicles, and in particular towards Deakin’s Tomorrow’s Car (TC). The study revealed that a relatively large percentage of consumers find such a concept very appealing. For the other consumers, the overall appearance and perception of safety and not the actual safety performance were found to be the most impeding factors of such vehicles. By addressing these issues and marketing the vehicle accordingly the successful commercialization of Tomorrow’s Car can be ensured.