Maximum likelihood estimation of new state space models for operational modal analysis

The modal analysis of a structural system consists on computing its vibrational modes. The experimental way to estimate these modes requires to excite the system with a measured or known input and then to measure the system output at different points using sensors. Finally, system inputs and outputs are used to compute the modes of vibration. When the system refers to large structures like buildings or bridges, the tests have to be performed in situ, so it is not possible to measure system inputs such as wind, traffic, . . .Even if a known input is applied, the procedure is usually difficult and expensive, and there are still uncontrolled disturbances acting at the time of the test. These facts led to the idea of computing the modes of vibration using only the measured vibrations and regardless of the inputs that originated them, whether they are ambient vibrations (wind, earthquakes, . . . ) or operational loads (traffic, human loading, . . . ). This procedure is usually called Operational Modal Analysis (OMA), and in general consists on to fit a mathematical model to the measured data assuming the unobserved excitations are realizations of a stationary stochastic process (usually white noise processes). Then, the modes of vibration are computed from the estimated model. The first issue investigated in this thesis is the performance of the Expectation- Maximization (EM) algorithm for the maximum likelihood estimation of the state space model in the field of OMA. The algorithm is described in detail and it is analysed how to apply it to vibration data. After that, it is compared to another well known method, the Stochastic Subspace Identification algorithm. The maximum likelihood estimate enjoys some optimal properties from a statistical point of view what makes it very attractive in practice, but the most remarkable property of the EM algorithm is that it can be used to address a wide range of situations in OMA. In this work, three additional state space models are proposed and estimated using the EM algorithm: • The first model is proposed to estimate the modes of vibration when several tests are performed in the same structural system. Instead of analyse record by record and then compute averages, the EM algorithm is extended for the joint estimation of the proposed state space model using all the available data. • The second state space model is used to estimate the modes of vibration when the number of available sensors is lower than the number of points to be tested. In these cases it is usual to perform several tests changing the position of the sensors from one test to the following (multiple setups of sensors). Here, the proposed state space model and the EM algorithm are used to estimate the modal parameters taking into account the data of all setups. • And last, a state space model is proposed to estimate the modes of vibration in the presence of unmeasured inputs that cannot be modelled as white noise processes. In these cases, the frequency components of the inputs cannot be separated from the eigenfrequencies of the system, and spurious modes are obtained in the identification process. The idea is to measure the response of the structure corresponding to different inputs; then, it is assumed that the parameters common to all the data correspond to the structure (modes of vibration), and the parameters found in a specific test correspond to the input in that test. The problem is solved using the proposed state space model and the EM algorithm. Resumen El análisis modal de un sistema estructural consiste en calcular sus modos de vibración. Para estimar estos modos experimentalmente es preciso excitar el sistema con entradas conocidas y registrar las salidas del sistema en diferentes puntos por medio de sensores. Finalmente, los modos de vibración se calculan utilizando las entradas y salidas registradas. Cuando el sistema es una gran estructura como un puente o un edificio, los experimentos tienen que realizarse in situ, por lo que no es posible registrar entradas al sistema tales como viento, tráfico, . . . Incluso si se aplica una entrada conocida, el procedimiento suele ser complicado y caro, y todavía están presentes perturbaciones no controladas que excitan el sistema durante el test. Estos hechos han llevado a la idea de calcular los modos de vibración utilizando sólo las vibraciones registradas en la estructura y sin tener en cuenta las cargas que las originan, ya sean cargas ambientales (viento, terremotos, . . . ) o cargas de explotación (tráfico, cargas humanas, . . . ). Este procedimiento se conoce en la literatura especializada como Análisis Modal Operacional, y en general consiste en ajustar un modelo matemático a los datos registrados adoptando la hipótesis de que las excitaciones no conocidas son realizaciones de un proceso estocástico estacionario (generalmente ruido blanco). Posteriormente, los modos de vibración se calculan a partir del modelo estimado. El primer problema que se ha investigado en esta tesis es la utilización de máxima verosimilitud y el algoritmo EM (Expectation-Maximization) para la estimación del modelo espacio de los estados en el ámbito del Análisis Modal Operacional. El algoritmo se describe en detalle y también se analiza como aplicarlo cuando se dispone de datos de vibraciones de una estructura. A continuación se compara con otro método muy conocido, el método de los Subespacios. Los estimadores máximo verosímiles presentan una serie de propiedades que los hacen óptimos desde un punto de vista estadístico, pero la propiedad más destacable del algoritmo EM es que puede utilizarse para resolver un amplio abanico de situaciones que se presentan en el Análisis Modal Operacional. En este trabajo se proponen y estiman tres modelos en el espacio de los estados: • El primer modelo se utiliza para estimar los modos de vibración cuando se dispone de datos correspondientes a varios experimentos realizados en la misma estructura. En lugar de analizar registro a registro y calcular promedios, se utiliza algoritmo EM para la estimación conjunta del modelo propuesto utilizando todos los datos disponibles. • El segundo modelo en el espacio de los estados propuesto se utiliza para estimar los modos de vibración cuando el número de sensores disponibles es menor que vi Resumen el número de puntos que se quieren analizar en la estructura. En estos casos es usual realizar varios ensayos cambiando la posición de los sensores de un ensayo a otro (múltiples configuraciones de sensores). En este trabajo se utiliza el algoritmo EM para estimar los parámetros modales teniendo en cuenta los datos de todas las configuraciones. • Por último, se propone otro modelo en el espacio de los estados para estimar los modos de vibración en la presencia de entradas al sistema que no pueden modelarse como procesos estocásticos de ruido blanco. En estos casos, las frecuencias de las entradas no se pueden separar de las frecuencias del sistema y se obtienen modos espurios en la fase de identificación. La idea es registrar la respuesta de la estructura correspondiente a diferentes entradas; entonces se adopta la hipótesis de que los parámetros comunes a todos los registros corresponden a la estructura (modos de vibración), y los parámetros encontrados en un registro específico corresponden a la entrada en dicho ensayo. El problema se resuelve utilizando el modelo propuesto y el algoritmo EM.

Steady-state thermal analysis of an innovative receiver for linear Fresnel reflectors

The study of the performance of an innovative receiver for linear Fresnel reflectors is carried out in this paper, and the results are analyzed with a physics perspective of the process. The receiver consists of a bundle of tubes parallel to the mirror arrays, resulting on a smaller cross section for the same receiver width as the number of tubes increases, due to the diminution of their diameter. This implies higher heat carrier fluid speeds, and thus, a more effective heat transfer process, although it conveys higher pumping power as well. Mass flow is optimized for different tubes diameters, different impinging radiation intensities and different fluid inlet temperatures. It is found that the best receiver design, namely the tubes diameter that maximizes the exergetic efficiency for given working conditions, is similar for the cases studied. There is a range of tubes diameters that imply similar efficiencies, which can drive to capital cost reduction thanks to the flexibility of design. In addition, the length of the receiver is also optimized, and it is observed that the optimal length is similar for the working conditions considered. As a result of this study, it is found that this innovative receiver provides an optimum design for the whole day, even though impinging radiation intensity varies notably. Thermal features of this type of receiver could be the base of a new generation of concentrated solar power plants with a great potential for cost reduction, because of the simplicity of the system and the lower weigh of the components, plus the flexibility of using the receiver tubes for different streams of the heat carrier fluid.

Development of a Uniform Theory of Diffraction for Scattered and Surface Electromagnetic Field Analysis on a Cylinder

Con esta tesis ”Desarrollo de una Teoría Uniforme de la Difracción para el Análisis de los Campos Electromagnéticos Dispersados y Superficiales sobre un Cilindro” hemos iniciado una nueva línea de investigación que trata de responder a la siguiente pregunta: ¿cuál es la impedancia de superficie que describe una estructura de conductor eléctrico perfecto (PEC) convexa recubierta por un material no conductor? Este tipo de estudios tienen interés hoy en día porque ayudan a predecir el campo electromagnético incidente, radiado o que se propaga sobre estructuras metálicas y localmente convexas que se encuentran recubiertas de algún material dieléctrico, o sobre estructuras metálicas con pérdidas, como por ejemplo se necesita en determinadas aplicaciones aeroespaciales, marítimas o automovilísticas. Además, desde un punto de vista teórico, la caracterización de la impedancia de superficie de una estructura PEC recubierta o no por un dieléctrico es una generalización de varias soluciones que tratan ambos tipos de problemas por separado. En esta tesis se desarrolla una teoría uniforme de la difracción (UTD) para analizar el problema canónico del campo electromagnético dispersado y superficial en un cilindro circular eléctricamente grande con una condición de contorno de impedancia (IBC) para frecuencias altas. Construir una solución basada en UTD para este problema canónico es crucial en el desarrollo de un método UTD para el caso más general de una superficie arbitrariamente convexa, mediante el uso del principio de localización de los campos electromagnéticos a altas frecuencias. Esta tesis doctoral se ha llevado a cabo a través de una serie de hitos que se enumeran a continuación, enfatizando las contribuciones a las que ha dado lugar. Inicialmente se realiza una revisión en profundidad del estado del arte de los métodos asintóticos con numerosas referencias. As í, cualquier lector novel puede llegar a conocer la historia de la óptica geométrica (GO) y la teoría geométrica de la difracción (GTD), que dieron lugar al desarrollo de la UTD. Después, se investiga ampliamente la UTD y los trabajos más importantes que pueden encontrarse en la literatura. As í, este capítulo, nos coloca en la posición de afirmar que, hasta donde nosotros conocemos, nadie ha intentado antes llevar a cabo una investigación rigurosa sobre la caracterización de la impedancia de superficie de una estructura PEC recubierta por un material dieléctrico, utilizando para ello la UTD. Primero, se desarrolla una UTD para el problema canónico de la dispersión electromagnética de un cilindro circular eléctricamente grande con una IBC uniforme, cuando es iluminado por una onda plana con incidencia oblicua a frecuencias altas. La solución a este problema canónico se construye a partir de una solución exacta mediante una expansión de autofunciones de propagación radial. Entonces, ésta se convierte en una nueva expansión de autofunciones de propagación circunferencial muy apropiada para cilindros grandes, a través de la transformación de Watson. De esta forma, la expresión del campo se reduce a una integral que se evalúa asintóticamente, para altas frecuencias, de manera uniforme. El resultado se expresa según el trazado de rayos descrito en la UTD. La solución es uniforme porque tiene la importante propiedad de mantenerse continua a lo largo de la región de transición, a ambos lados de la superficie del contorno de sombra. Fuera de la región de transición la solución se reduce al campo incidente y reflejado puramente ópticos en la región iluminada del cilindro, y al campo superficial difractado en la región de sombra. Debido a la IBC el campo dispersado contiene una componente contrapolar a causa de un acoplamiento entre las ondas TEz y TMz (donde z es el eje del cilindro). Esta componente contrapolar desaparece cuando la incidencia es normal al cilindro, y también en la región iluminada cuando la incidencia es oblicua donde el campo se reduce a la solución de GO. La solución UTD presenta una muy buena exactitud cuando se compara numéricamente con una solución de referencia exacta. A continuación, se desarrolla una IBC efectiva para el cálculo del campo electromagnético dispersado en un cilindro circular PEC recubierto por un dieléctrico e iluminado por una onda plana incidiendo oblicuamente. Para ello se derivan dos impedancias de superficie en relación directa con las ondas creeping y de superficie TM y TE que se excitan en un cilindro recubierto por un material no conductor. Las impedancias de superficie TM y TE están acopladas cuando la incidencia es oblicua, y dependen de la geometría del problema y de los números de onda. Además, se ha derivado una impedancia de superficie constante, aunque con diferente valor cuando el observador se encuentra en la zona iluminada o en la zona de sombra. Después, se presenta una solución UTD para el cálculo de la dispersión de una onda plana con incidencia oblicua sobre un cilindro eléctricamente grande y convexo, mediante la generalización del problema canónico correspondiente al cilindro circular. La solución asintótica es uniforme porque se mantiene continua a lo largo de la región de transición, en las inmediaciones del contorno de sombra, y se reduce a la solución de rayos ópticos en la zona iluminada y a la contribución de las ondas de superficie dentro de la zona de sombra, lejos de la región de transición. Cuando se usa cualquier material no conductor se excita una componente contrapolar que tiende a desaparecer cuando la incidencia es normal al cilindro y en la región iluminada. Se discuten ampliamente las limitaciones de las fórmulas para la impedancia de superficie efectiva, y se compara la solución UTD con otras soluciones de referencia, donde se observa una muy buena concordancia. Y en tercer lugar, se presenta una aproximación para una impedancia de superficie efectiva para el cálculo de los campos superficiales en un cilindro circular conductor recubierto por un dieléctrico. Se discuten las principales diferencias que existen entre un cilindro PEC recubierto por un dieléctrico desde un punto de vista riguroso y un cilindro con una IBC. Mientras para un cilindro de impedancia se considera una impedancia de superficie constante o uniforme, para un cilindro conductor recubierto por un dieléctrico se derivan dos impedancias de superficie. Estas impedancias de superficie están asociadas a los modos de ondas creeping TM y TE excitadas en un cilindro, y dependen de la posición y de la orientación del observador y de la fuente. Con esto en mente, se deriva una solución UTD con IBC para los campos superficiales teniendo en cuenta las dependencias de la impedancia de superficie. La expansión asintótica se realiza, mediante la transformación de Watson, sobre la representación en serie de las funciones de Green correspondientes, evitando as í calcular las derivadas de orden superior de las integrales de tipo Fock, y dando lugar a una solución rápida y precisa. En los ejemplos numéricos realizados se observa una muy buena precisión cuando el cilindro y la separación entre el observador y la fuente son grandes. Esta solución, junto con el método de los momentos (MoM), se puede aplicar para el cálculo eficiente del acoplamiento mutuo de grandes arrays conformados de antenas de parches. Los métodos propuestos basados en UTD para el cálculo del campo electromagnético dispersado y superficial sobre un cilindro PEC recubierto de dieléctrico con una IBC efectiva suponen un primer paso hacia la generalización de una solución UTD para superficies metálicas convexas arbitrarias cubiertas por un material no conductor e iluminadas por una fuente electromagnética arbitraria. ABSTRACT With this thesis ”Development of a Uniform Theory of Diffraction for Scattered and Surface Electromagnetic Field Analysis on a Cylinder” we have initiated a line of investigation whose goal is to answer the following question: what is the surface impedance which describes a perfect electric conductor (PEC) convex structure covered by a material coating? These studies are of current and future interest for predicting the electromagnetic (EM) fields incident, radiating or propagating on locally smooth convex parts of highly metallic structures with a material coating, or by a lossy metallic surfaces, as for example in aerospace, maritime and automotive applications. Moreover, from a theoretical point of view, the surface impedance characterization of PEC surfaces with or without a material coating represents a generalization of independent solutions for both type of problems. A uniform geometrical theory of diffraction (UTD) is developed in this thesis for analyzing the canonical problem of EM scattered and surface field by an electrically large circular cylinder with an impedance boundary condition (IBC) in the high frequency regime, by means of a surface impedance characterization. The construction of a UTD solution for this canonical problem is crucial for the development of the corresponding UTD solution for the more general case of an arbitrary smooth convex surface, via the principle of the localization of high frequency EM fields. The development of the present doctoral thesis has been carried out through a series of landmarks that are enumerated as follows, emphasizing the main contributions that this work has given rise to. Initially, a profound revision is made in the state of art of asymptotic methods where numerous references are given. Thus, any reader may know the history of geometrical optics (GO) and geometrical theory of diffraction (GTD), which led to the development of UTD. Then, the UTD is deeply investigated and the main studies which are found in the literature are shown. This chapter situates us in the position to state that, as far as we know, nobody has attempted before to perform a rigorous research about the surface impedance characterization for material-coated PEC convex structures via UTD. First, a UTD solution is developed for the canonical problem of the EM scattering by an electrically large circular cylinder with a uniform IBC, when it is illuminated by an obliquely incident high frequency plane wave. A solution to this canonical problem is first constructed in terms of an exact formulation involving a radially propagating eigenfunction expansion. The latter is converted into a circumferentially propagating eigenfunction expansion suited for large cylinders, via the Watson transformation, which is expressed as an integral that is subsequently evaluated asymptotically, for high frequencies, in a uniform manner. The resulting solution is then expressed in the desired UTD ray form. This solution is uniform in the sense that it has the important property that it remains continuous across the transition region on either side of the surface shadow boundary. Outside the shadow boundary transition region it recovers the purely ray optical incident and reflected ray fields on the deep lit side of the shadow boundary and to the modal surface diffracted ray fields on the deep shadow side. The scattered field is seen to have a cross-polarized component due to the coupling between the TEz and TMz waves (where z is the cylinder axis) resulting from the IBC. Such cross-polarization vanishes for normal incidence on the cylinder, and also in the deep lit region for oblique incidence where it properly reduces to the GO or ray optical solution. This UTD solution is shown to be very accurate by a numerical comparison with an exact reference solution. Then, an effective IBC is developed for the EM scattered field on a coated PEC circular cylinder illuminated by an obliquely incident plane wave. Two surface impedances are derived in a direct relation with the TM and TE surface and creeping wave modes excited on a coated cylinder. The TM and TE surface impedances are coupled at oblique incidence, and depend on the geometry of the problem and the wave numbers. Nevertheless, a constant surface impedance is found, although with a different value when the observation point lays in the lit or in the shadow region. Then, a UTD solution for the scattering of an obliquely incident plane wave on an electrically large smooth convex coated PEC cylinder is introduced, via a generalization of the canonical circular cylinder problem. The asymptotic solution is uniform because it remains continuous across the transition region, in the vicinity of the shadow boundary, and it recovers the ray optical solution in the deep lit region and the creeping wave formulation within the deep shadow region. When a coating is present a cross-polar field term is excited, which vanishes at normal incidence and in the deep lit region. The limitations of the effective surface impedance formulas are discussed, and the UTD solution is compared with some reference solutions where a very good agreement is met. And in third place, an effective surface impedance approach is introduced for determining surface fields on an electrically large coated metallic circular cylinder. Differences in analysis of rigorouslytreated coated metallic cylinders and cylinders with an IBC are discussed. While for the impedance cylinder case a single constant or uniform surface impedance is considered, for the coated metallic cylinder case two surface impedances are derived. These are associated with the TM and TE creeping wave modes excited on a cylinder and depend on observation and source positions and orientations. With this in mind, a UTD based method with IBC is derived for the surface fields by taking into account the surface impedance variation. The asymptotic expansion is performed, via the Watson transformation, over the appropriate series representation of the Green’s functions, thus avoiding higher-order derivatives of Fock-type integrals, and yielding a fast and an accurate solution. Numerical examples reveal a very good accuracy for large cylinders when the separation between the observation and the source point is large. Thus, this solution could be efficiently applied in mutual coupling analysis, along with the method of moments (MoM), of large conformal microstrip array antennas. The proposed UTD methods for scattered and surface EM field analysis on a coated PEC cylinder with an effective IBC are considered the first steps toward the generalization of a UTD solution for large arbitrarily convex smooth metallic surfaces covered by a material coating and illuminated by an arbitrary EM source.

Analysis of microscopic magnitudes of radiative blast waves launched in xenon clusters with collisional-radiative steady-state simulations

Radiative shock waves play a pivotal role in the transport energy into the stellar medium. This fact has led to many efforts to scale the astrophysical phenomena to accessible laboratory conditions and their study has been highlighted as an area requiring further experimental investigations. Low density material with high atomic mass is suitable to achieve radiative regime, and, therefore, low density xenon gas is commonly used for the medium in which the radiative shocks such as radiative blast waves propagate. In this work, by means of collisional-radiative steady-state calculations, a characterization and an analysis of microscopic magnitudes of laboratory blast waves launched in xenon clusters are made. Thus, for example, the average ionization, the charge state distribution, the cooling time or photon mean free paths are studied. Furthermore, for a particular experiment, the effects of the self-absorption and self-emission in the specific intensity emitted by the shock front and that is going through the radiative precursor are investigated. Finally, for that experiment, since the electron temperature is not measured experimentally, an estimation of this magnitude is made both for the shock shell and the radiative precursor.

Stability Analysis of Teleoperation System by State Convergence with Variable Time Delay

We propose a novel control scheme for bilateral teleoperation of n degree-of-freedom (DOF) nonlinear robotic systems with time-varying communication delay. A major contribution from this work lies in the demonstration that the structure of a state convergence algorithm can be also applied to nth-order nonlinear teleoperation systems. By choosing a Lyapunov Krasovskii functional, we show that the local-remote teleoperation system is asymptotically stable. The time delay of communication channel is assumed to be unknown and randomly time varying, but the upper bounds of the delay interval and the derivative of the delay are assumed to be known.

Linear instability analysis of incompressible flow over a cuboid cavity

Direct numerical simulations are performed to analyze the three-dimensional instability of flows over three-dimensional cavities. The flow structures at different Reynolds numbers are investigated by using the spectral-element solver nek5000. As the Reynolds number increasing, the lateral wall effects become more important, the recirculation zone shrinks, the front vortex increases and the flow structure inside of the cavity becomes more complex. Results show that the flow bifurcates from a steady state to an oscillatory regime beyond a value of Reynolds number Re = 1100.

A multi-scale analysis of transforming agricultural markets in the context of globalization: implications for natural resources, food prices and rural poverty in Latin America

Vivimos una época en la que el mundo se transforma aceleradamente. La globalización está siguiendo un curso imparable, la población mundial así como la población urbana siguen creciendo, y en los países emergentes los ingresos promedios aumentan, resultando en un cambio también acelerado de las dietas y hábitos alimentarios. En conjunto esos factores están causando un aumento fundamental de la demanda de alimentos. Junto con la apertura de los mercados agrícolas, estos procesos han provocado un crecimiento del comercio internacional de alimentos durante la última década. Dado que muchos países de América Latina están dotados de abundancia de recursos naturales, estas tendencias han producido un crecimiento rápido de las exportaciones de bienes primarios desde América Latina al resto del mundo. En sólo 30 años la participación en el mercado agrícola de América Latina casi se ha duplicado, desde 10% en 1980 a 18% en 2010. Este aumento del comercio agrícola ha dado lugar a un debate sobre una serie de cuestiones cruciales relacionadas con los impactos del comercio en la seguridad alimentaria mundial, en el medio ambiente o en la reducción de la pobreza rural en países en desarrollo. Esta tesis aplica un marco integrado para analizar varios impactos relacionados con la transformación de los mercados agrícolas y los mercados rurales debidos a la globalización y, en particular, al progresivo aumento del comercio internacional. En concreto, la tesis aborda los siguientes temas: En primer lugar, la producción mundial de alimentos tendrá que aumentar considerablemente para poder satisfacer la demanda de una población mundial de 9000 millones personas en 2050, lo cual plantea grandes desafíos sobre los sistemas de la producción de alimentos. Alcanzar este logro, sin comprometer la integridad del medio ambiente en regiones exportadoras, es un reto aún mayor. En este contexto, la tesis analiza los efectos de la liberalización del comercio mundial, considerando distintas tecnologías de producción agraria, sobre unos indicadores de seguridad alimentaria en diferentes regiones del mundo y sobre distintos indicadores ambientales, teniendo en cuenta escalas diferentes en América Latina y el Caribe. La tesis utiliza el modelo “International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT)” – un modelo dinámico de equilibrio parcial del sector agrícola a escala global – para modelar la apertura de los mercados agrícolas así como diferentes escenarios de la producción hasta el año 2050. Los resultados del modelo están vinculados a modelos biofísicos para poder evaluar los cambios en la huella hídrica y la calidad del agua, así como para cuantificar los impactos del cambio en el uso del suelo sobre la biodiversidad y los stocks de carbono en 2050. Los resultados indican que la apertura de los mercados agrícolas es muy importante para mejorar la seguridad alimentaria a nivel mundial, sin embargo, produce también presiones ambientales indeseables en algunas regiones de América Latina. Contrastando dos escenarios que consideran distintas modos de producción, la expansión de la tierra agrícola frente a un escenario de la producción más intensiva, se demuestra que las mejoras de productividad son generalmente superiores a la expansión de las tierras agrícolas, desde un punto de vista económico e ambiental. En cambio, los escenarios de intensificación sostenible no sólo hacen posible una mayor producción de alimentos, sino que también generan menos impactos medioambientales que los otros escenarios futuros en todas sus dimensiones: biodiversidad, carbono, emisiones de nitratos y uso del agua. El análisis muestra que hay un “trade-off” entre el objetivo de alcanzar la sostenibilidad ambiental y el objetivo de la seguridad alimentaria, independiente del manejo agrícola en el futuro. En segundo lugar, a la luz de la reciente crisis de los precios de alimentos en los años 2007/08, la tesis analiza los impactos de la apertura de los mercados agrícolas en la transmisión de precios de los alimentos en seis países de América Latina: Argentina, Brasil, Chile, Colombia, México y el Perú. Para identificar las posibles relaciones de cointegración entre los índices de precios al consumidor de alimentos y los índices de precios de agrarios internacionales, sujetos a diferentes grados de apertura de mercados agrícolas en los seis países de América Latina, se utiliza un modelo simple de corrección de error (single equation error correction). Los resultados indican que la integración global de los mercados agrícolas ha dado lugar a diferentes tasas de transmisión de precios en los países investigados. Sobre todo en el corto plazo, las tasas de transmisión dependen del grado de apertura comercial, mientras que en el largo plazo las tasas de transmisión son elevadas, pero en gran medida independientes del régimen de comercio. Por lo tanto, durante un período de shocks de precios mundiales una mayor apertura del comercio trae consigo más inestabilidad de los precios domésticos a corto plazo y la resultante persistencia en el largo plazo. Sin embargo, estos resultados no verifican necesariamente la utilidad de las políticas comerciales, aplicadas frecuentemente por los gobiernos para amortiguar los shocks de precios. Primero, porque existe un riesgo considerable de volatilidad de los precios debido a cambios bruscos de la oferta nacional si se promueve la autosuficiencia en el país; y segundo, la política de proteccionismo asume el riesgo de excluir el país de participar en las cadenas de suministro de alto valor del sector agrícola, y por lo tanto esa política podría obstaculizar el desarrollo económico. Sin embargo, es indispensable establecer políticas efectivas para reducir la vulnerabilidad de los hogares a los aumentos repentinos de precios de alimentos, lo cual requiere una planificación gubernamental precisa con el presupuesto requerido disponible. En tercer lugar, la globalización afecta a la estructura de una economía y, por medios distintos, la distribución de los ingreso en un país. Perú sirve como ejemplo para investigar más profundamente las cuestiones relacionadas con los cambios en la distribución de los ingresos en zonas rurales. Perú, que es un país que está cada vez más integrado en los mercados mundiales, consiguió importantes descensos en la pobreza extrema en sus zonas rurales, pero a la vez adolece de alta incidencia de pobreza moderada y de desigualdad de los ingresos en zonas rural al menos durante el periodo comprendido entre 2004 y 2012. Esta parte de la tesis tiene como objetivo identificar las fuerzas impulsoras detrás de estas dinámicas en el Perú mediante el uso de un modelo de microsimulación basado en modelos de generación de ingresos aplicado a nivel los hogares rurales. Los resultados indican que la fuerza principal detrás de la reducción de la pobreza ha sido el crecimiento económico general de la economía, debido a las condiciones macroeconómicas favorables durante el periodo de estudio. Estos efectos de crecimiento beneficiaron a casi todos los sectores rurales, y dieron lugar a la disminución de la pobreza rural extrema, especialmente entre los agricultores de papas y de maíz. En parte, estos agricultores probablemente se beneficiaron de la apertura de los mercados agrícolas, que es lo que podría haber provocado un aumento de los precios al productor en tiempos de altos precios mundiales de los alimentos. Sin embargo, los resultados también sugieren que para una gran parte de la población más pobre existían barreras de entrada a la hora de poder participar en el empleo asalariado fuera de la agricultura o en la producción de cultivos de alto valor. Esto podría explicarse por la falta de acceso a unos activos importantes: por ejemplo, el nivel de educación de los pobres era apenas mejor en 2012 que en 2004; y también las dotaciones de tierra y de mano de obra, sobre todo de los productores pobres de maíz y patata, disminuyeron entre 2004 y 2012. Esto lleva a la conclusión de que aún hay margen para aplicar políticas para facilitar el acceso a estos activos, que podría contribuir a la erradicación de la pobreza rural. La tesis concluye que el comercio agrícola puede ser un importante medio para abastecer una población mundial creciente y más rica con una cantidad suficiente de calorías. Para evitar adversos efectos ambientales e impactos negativos para los consumidores y de los productores pobres, el enfoque debe centrarse en las mejoras de la productividad agrícola, teniendo en cuenta los límites ambientales y ser socialmente inclusivo. En este sentido, será indispensable seguir desarrollando soluciones tecnológicas que garanticen prácticas de producción agrícola minimizando el uso de recursos naturales. Además, para los pequeños pobres agricultores será fundamental eliminar las barreras de entrada a los mercados de exportación que podría tener efectos indirectos favorables a través de la adopción de nuevas tecnologías alcanzables a través de mercados internacionales. ABSTRACT The world is in a state of rapid transition. Ongoing globalization, population growth, rising living standards and increasing urbanization, accompanied by changing dietary patterns throughout the world, are increasing the demand for food. Together with more open trade regimes, this has triggered growing international agricultural trade during the last decade. For many Latin American countries, which are gifted with relative natural resource abundance, these trends have fueled rapid export growth of primary goods. In just 30 years, the Latin American agricultural market share has almost doubled from 10% in 1980 to 18% in 2010. These market developments have given rise to a debate around a number of crucial issues related to the role of agricultural trade for global food security, for the environment or for poverty reduction in developing countries. This thesis uses an integrated framework to analyze a broad array of possible impacts related to transforming agricultural and rural markets in light of globalization, and in particular of increasing trade activity. Specifically, the following issues are approached: First, global food production will have to rise substantially by the year 2050 to meet effective demand of a nine billion people world population which poses major challenges to food production systems. Doing so without compromising environmental integrity in exporting regions is an even greater challenge. In this context, the thesis explores the effects of future global trade liberalization on food security indicators in different world regions and on a variety of environmental indicators at different scales in Latin America and the Caribbean, in due consideration of different future agricultural production practices. The International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) –a global dynamic partial equilibrium model of the agricultural sector developed by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)– is applied to run different future production scenarios, and agricultural trade regimes out to 2050. Model results are linked to biophysical models, used to assess changes in water footprints and water quality, as well as impacts on biodiversity and carbon stocks from land use change by 2050. Results indicate that further trade liberalization is crucial for improving food security globally, but that it would also lead to more environmental pressures in some regions across Latin America. Contrasting land expansion versus more intensified agriculture shows that productivity improvements are generally superior to agricultural land expansion, from an economic and environmental point of view. Most promising for achieving food security and environmental goals, in equal measure, is the sustainable intensification scenario. However, the analysis shows that there are trade-offs between environmental and food security goals for all agricultural development paths. Second, in light of the recent food price crisis of 2007/08, the thesis looks at the impacts of increasing agricultural market integration on food price transmission from global to domestic markets in six Latin American countries, namely Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru. To identify possible cointegrating relationships between the domestic food consumer price indices and world food price levels, subject to different degrees of agricultural market integration in the six Latin American countries, a single equation error correction model is used. Results suggest that global agricultural market integration has led to different levels of price path-through in the studied countries. Especially in the short-run, transmission rates depend on the degree of trade openness, while in the long-run transmission rates are high, but largely independent of the country-specific trade regime. Hence, under world price shocks more trade openness brings with it more price instability in the short-term and the resulting persistence in the long-term. However, these findings do not necessarily verify the usefulness of trade policies, often applied by governments to buffer such price shocks. First, because there is a considerable risk of price volatility due to domestic supply shocks if self-sufficiency is promoted. Second, protectionism bears the risk of excluding a country from participating in beneficial high-value agricultural supply chains, thereby hampering economic development. Nevertheless, to reduce households’ vulnerability to sudden and large increases of food prices, effective policies to buffer food price shocks should be put in place, but must be carefully planned with the required budget readily available. Third, globalization affects the structure of an economy and, by different means, the distribution of income in a country. Peru serves as an example to dive deeper into questions related to changes in the income distribution in rural areas. Peru, a country being increasingly integrated into global food markets, experienced large drops in extreme rural poverty, but persistently high rates of moderate rural poverty and rural income inequality between 2004 and 2012. The thesis aims at disentangling the driving forces behind these dynamics by using a microsimulation model based on rural household income generation models. Results provide evidence that the main force behind poverty reduction was overall economic growth of the economy due to generally favorable macroeconomic market conditions. These growth effects benefited almost all rural sectors, and led to declines in extreme rural poverty, especially among potato and maize farmers. In part, these farmers probably benefited from policy changes towards more open trade regimes and the resulting higher producer prices in times of elevated global food price levels. However, the results also suggest that entry barriers existed for the poorer part of the population to participate in well-paid wage-employment outside of agriculture or in high-value crop production. This could be explained by a lack of sufficient access to important rural assets. For example, poor people’s educational attainment was hardly better in 2012 than in 2004. Also land and labor endowments, especially of (poor) maize and potato growers, rather decreased than increased over time. This leads to the conclusion that there is still scope for policy action to facilitate access to these assets, which could contribute to the eradication of rural poverty. The thesis concludes that agricultural trade can be one important means to provide a growing and richer world population with sufficient amounts of calories. To avoid adverse environmental effects and negative impacts for poor food consumers and producers, the focus should lie on agricultural productivity improvements, considering environmental limits and be socially inclusive. In this sense, it will be crucial to further develop technological solutions that guarantee resource-sparing agricultural production practices, and to remove entry barriers for small poor farmers to export markets which might allow for technological spill-over effects from high-value global agricultural supply chains.

State space models for multi-setup operational modal analysis

Operational Modal Analysis consists on estimate the modal parameters of a structure (natural frequencies, damping ratios and modal vectors) from output-only vibration measurements. The modal vectors can be only estimated where a sensor is placed, so when the number of available sensors is lower than the number of tested points, it is usual to perform several tests changing the position of the sensors from one test to the following (multiple setups of sensors): some sensors stay at the same position from setup to setup, and the other sensors change the position until all the tested points are covered. The permanent sensors are then used to merge the mode shape estimated at each setup (or partial modal vectors) into global modal vectors. Traditionally, the partial modal vectors are estimated independently setup by setup, and the global modal vectors are obtained in a postprocess phase. In this work we present two state space models that can be used to process all the recorded setups at the same time, and we also present how these models can be estimated using the maximum likelihood method. The result is that the global mode shape of each mode is obtained automatically, and subsequently, a single value for the natural frequency and damping ratio of the mode is computed. Finally, both models are compared using real measured data.

Membrane-bound state of the colicin E1 channel domain as an extended two-dimensional helical array

Atomic level structures have been determined for the soluble forms of several colicins and toxins, but the structural changes that occur after membrane binding have not been well characterized. Changes occurring in the transition from the soluble to membrane-bound state of the C-terminal 190-residue channel polypeptide of colicin E1 (P190) bound to anionic membranes are described. In the membrane-bound state, the α-helical content increases from 60–64% to 80–90%, with a concomitant increase in the average length of the helical segments from 12 to 16 or 17 residues, close to the length required to span the membrane bilayer in the open channel state. The average distance between helical segments is increased and interhelix interactions are weakened, as shown by a major loss of tertiary structure interactions, decreased efficiency of fluorescence resonance energy transfer from an energy donor on helix V of P190 to an acceptor on helix IX, and decreased resonance energy transfer at higher temperatures, not observed in soluble P190, implying freedom of motion of helical segments. Weaker interactions are also shown by a calorimetric thermal transition of low cooperativity, and the extended nature of the helical array is shown by a 3- to 4-fold increase in the average area subtended per molecule to 4,200 Å2 on the membrane surface. The latter, with analysis of the heat capacity changes, implies the absence of a developed hydrophobic core in the membrane-bound P190. The membrane interfacial layer thus serves to promote formation of a highly helical extended two-dimensional flexible net. The properties of the membrane-bound state of the colicin channel domain (i.e., hydrophobic anchor, lengthened and loosely coupled α-helices, and close association with the membrane interfacial layer) are plausible structural features for the state that is a prerequisite for voltage gating, formation of transmembrane helices, and channel opening.

Solid-state synthesis and mechanical unfolding of polymers of T4 lysozyme

Recent advances in single molecule manipulation methods offer a novel approach to investigating the protein folding problem. These studies usually are done on molecules that are naturally organized as linear arrays of globular domains. To extend these techniques to study proteins that normally exist as monomers, we have developed a method of synthesizing polymers of protein molecules in the solid state. By introducing cysteines at locations where bacteriophage T4 lysozyme molecules contact each other in a crystal and taking advantage of the alignment provided by the lattice, we have obtained polymers of defined polarity up to 25 molecules long that retain enzymatic activity. These polymers then were manipulated mechanically by using a modified scanning force microscope to characterize the force-induced reversible unfolding of the individual lysozyme molecules. This approach should be general and adaptable to many other proteins with known crystal structures. For T4 lysozyme, the force required to unfold the monomers was 64 ± 16 pN at the pulling speed used. Refolding occurred within 1 sec of relaxation with an efficiency close to 100%. Analysis of the force versus extension curves suggests that the mechanical unfolding transition follows a two-state model. The unfolding forces determined in 1 M guanidine hydrochloride indicate that in these conditions the activation barrier for unfolding is reduced by 2 kcal/mol.

NMR investigation of ferricytochrome c unfolding: Detection of an equilibrium unfolding intermediate and residual structure in the denatured state

Horse ferricytochrome c (cyt c) undergoes exchange of one of its axial heme ligands (Met-80) for one or more non-native ligands under denaturing conditions. We have used 1H NMR spectroscopy to detect two conformations of paramagnetic cyt c with non-native heme ligation through a range of urea concentrations. One non-native form is an equilibrium unfolding intermediate observed under partially denaturing conditions and is attributed to replacement of Met-80 with one or more Lys side chains. The second non-native form, in which the native Met ligand is replaced by a His, is observed under strongly denaturing conditions. Thermodynamic analysis of these data indicates a relatively small ΔG (17 kJ/mol) for the transition from native to the Lys-ligated intermediate and a significantly larger ΔG (47 kJ/mol) for the transition from native to the His-ligated species. Although CD and fluorescence data indicate that the equilibrium unfolding of cyt c is a two-state process, these NMR results implicate an intermediate with His-Lys ligation.

On the absorbance changes in the photocycle of the photoactive yellow protein: A quantum-chemical analysis

Spectral changes in the photocycle of the photoactive yellow protein (PYP) are investigated by using ab initio multiconfigurational second-order perturbation theory at the available structures experimentally determined. Using the dark ground-state crystal structure [Genick, U. K., Soltis, S. M., Kuhn, P., Canestrelli, I. L. & Getzoff, E. D. (1998) Nature (London) 392, 206–209], the ππ* transition to the lowest excited state is related to the typical blue-light absorption observed at 446 nm. The different nature of the second excited state (nπ*) is consistent with the alternative route detected at 395-nm excitation. The results suggest the low-temperature photoproduct PYPHL as the most plausible candidate for the assignment of the cryogenically trapped early intermediate (Genick et al.). We cannot establish, however, a successful correspondence between the theoretical spectrum for the nanosecond time-resolved x-ray structure [Perman, B., Šrajer, V., Ren, Z., Teng, T., Pradervand, C., et al. (1998) Science 279, 1946–1950] and any of the spectroscopic photoproducts known up to date. It is fully confirmed that the colorless light-activated intermediate recorded by millisecond time-resolved crystallography [Genick, U. K., Borgstahl, G. E. O., Ng, K., Ren, Z., Pradervand, C., et al. (1997) Science 275, 1471–1475] is protonated, nicely matching the spectroscopic features of the photoproduct PYPM. The overall contribution demonstrates that a combined analysis of high-level theoretical results and experimental data can be of great value to perform assignments of detected intermediates in a photocycle.

An inhibitor of p34cdc2/cyclin B that regulates the G2/M transition in Xenopus extracts.

The activity of maturation-promoting factor (MPF), a protein kinase complex composed of p34cdc2 and cyclin B, is undetectable during interphase but rises abruptly at the G2/M transition to induce mitosis. After the synthesis of cyclin B, the suppression of MPF activity before mitosis has been attributed to the phosphorylation of p34cdc2 on sites (threonine-14 and tyrosine-15) that inhibit its catalytic activity. We previously showed that the activity of the mitotic p34cdc2/cyclin B complex is rapidly suppressed when added to interphase Xenopus extracts that lack endogenous cyclin B. Here we show that a mutant of p34cdc2 that cannot be inhibited by phosphorylation (threonine-14-->alanine, tyrosine-15-->phenylalanine) is also susceptible to inactivation, demonstrating that inhibitory mechanisms independent of threonine-14 and tyrosine-15 phosphorylation must exist. We have partially characterized this inhibitory pathway as one involving a reversible binding inhibitor of p34cdc2/cyclin B that is tightly associated with cell membranes. Kinetic analysis suggests that this inhibitor, in conjunction with the kinases that mediate the inhibitory phosphorylations on p34cdc2, maintains the interphase state in Xenopus; it may play an important role in the exact timing of the G2/M transition.

Phase transition in the three dimensional Heisenberg spin glass: Finite-size scaling analysis

We have investigated the phase transition in the Heisenberg spin glass using massive numerical simulations to study very large sizes, 483. A finite-size scaling analysis indicates that the data are compatible with the most economical scenario: a common transition temperature for spins and chiralities.