Dynamic Criteria: a Longitudinal Analysis of Professional Basketball Players" Outcomes

This paper describes the fluctuations of temporal criteria dynamics in the context of professional sport. Specifically, we try to verify the underlying deterministic patterns in the outcomes of professional basketball players. We use a longitudinal approach based on the analysis of the outcomes of 94 basketball players over ten years, covering practically players" entire career development. Time series were analyzed with techniques derived from nonlinear dynamical systems theory. These techniques analyze the underlying patterns in outcomes without previous shape assumptions (linear or nonlinear). These techniques are capable of detecting an intermediate situation between randomness and determinism, called chaos. So they are very useful for the study of dynamic criteria in organizations. We have found most players (88.30%) have a deterministic pattern in their outcomes, and most cases are chaotic (81.92%). Players with chaotic patterns have higher outcomes than players with linear patterns. Moreover, players with power forward and center positions achieve better results than other players. The high number of chaotic patterns found suggests caution when appraising individual outcomes, when coaches try to find the appropriate combination of players to design a competitive team, and other personnel decisions. Management efforts must be made to assume this uncertainty.

Competitive Analysis of the Northwest Russian Transport Logistics Cluster – Finnish Perspective

Tutkimus tarkastelee Luoteis-Venäjän liikennelogistiikkaklusteria. Tarkoitus on selvittää klusterin nykyinen rakenne ja kilpailukyky sekä klusterin tarjoamat liiketoimintamahdollisuudet suomalaisille logistiikkayrityksille. Työssä käsitellään neljää perusliikennemuotoa: rautatie-, maantie-, meri- ja sisävesi-, sekä ilmaliikennettä. Tutkimuksen aineisto on kerätty tutkimusta varten laadituista kyselyistä, haastatteluista sekä aiemmin julkaistusta materiaalista. Venäjä on suunnitellut kehittävänsä voimakkaasti liikenneinfrastruktuuria, mm. julkaisemalla protektionistisen liikennestrategiasuunnitelman. Ongelmana ovat olleet toteutukset, jotka ovat jääneet yleensä puutteellisiksi. Tällä hetkellä todellista kilpailukykyä löytyy ainoastaan rautatieliikenteestä, muut kolme liikennemuotoa omaavat potentiaalisen kilpailukyvyn. Venäjällä on mahdollisuus hyötyä laajasta pinta-alastaan Aasian ja Euroopan liikenteen yhdistäjänä. Yksi konkreettisimmista esimerkeistä on Trans Siperian rautatie, joka kaipaisi vielä lisäkehitystä. Suomi on toiminut Venäjän liikenteessä arvotavaran kauttakulkumaana, vuonna 2003 noin 30–40 % Venäjän tuonnin arvosta kulki Suomen kautta. Venäjälle tullaan tuomaan arvotavaraa vielä useita vuosia, mutta reittien osalta kilpailu on tiukentunut. Suomalaisten yritysten liiketoimintamahdollisuuksiin esitetään kaksi mallia: kauttakulkuliikenteen lisäarvologistiset (VAL) operaatiot Suomessa tai etabloituminen Venäjän logistisiin ketjuihin. Suomalaisten olisi syytä parantaa yhteistyötään yritysten ja yliopistojen ym. koulutuslaitosten välillä. Myös yhteistyökumppaneiden hakeminen esimerkiksi Ruotsista voisi tuoda merkittäviä etuja. Suomalaista osaamista voitaisiin hyödyntää parhaiten etabloitumalla Venäjän markkinoille, esimerkiksi keskittymällä Venäjän logististen ketjujen johtamiseen. Myös VAL palveluiden johtamiseen Venäjällä olisi erittäin hyvä tilaisuus, koska Venäjän oma tietotaito logistiikassa ei ole vielä kehittynyt kansainväliselle tasolle, mutta kustannustaso on alhaisempi kuin Suomessa.

Environmental Structural Decomposition Analysis of Italian Emissions, 1995-2005

[spa] El estudio analiza la evolución de los gases de efecto invernadero (GEI) y las emisiones de acidificación para Italia durante el periodo 1995-2005. Los datos muestran que mientras las emisiones que contribuyen a la acidificación han disminuido constantemente, las emisiones de GEI han aumentado debido al aumento de dióxido de carbono. El objetivo de este estudio es poner de relieve cómo diferentes factores económicos, en particular el crecimiento económico, el desarrollo de una tecnología menos contaminante y la estructura del consumo, han impulsado la evolución de las emisiones. La metodología propuesta es un análisis de descomposición estructural (ADE), método que permite descomponer los cambios de la variable de interés entre las diferentes fuerzas y revelar la importancia de cada factor. Por otra parte, este estudio considera la importancia del comercio internacional e intenta incluir el “problema de la responsabilidad”. Es decir, a través de las relaciones comerciales internacionales, un país podría estar exportando procesos de producción contaminantes sin una reducción real de la contaminación implícita en su patrón de consumo. Con este fin, siguiendo primero un enfoque basado en la “responsabilidad del productor”, el ADE se aplica a las emisiones causadas por la producción nacional. Sucesivamente, el análisis se mueve hacia un enfoque basado en la “responsabilidad del consumidor" y la descomposición se aplica a las emisiones relacionadas con la producción nacional o la producción extranjera que satisface la demanda interna. De esta manera, el ejercicio permite una primera comprobación de la importancia del comercio internacional y pone de relieve algunos resultados a nivel global y a nivel sectorial.

Environmental Structural Decomposition Analysis of Italian Emissions, 1995-2005

[spa] El estudio analiza la evolución de los gases de efecto invernadero (GEI) y las emisiones de acidificación para Italia durante el periodo 1995-2005. Los datos muestran que mientras las emisiones que contribuyen a la acidificación han disminuido constantemente, las emisiones de GEI han aumentado debido al aumento de dióxido de carbono. El objetivo de este estudio es poner de relieve cómo diferentes factores económicos, en particular el crecimiento económico, el desarrollo de una tecnología menos contaminante y la estructura del consumo, han impulsado la evolución de las emisiones. La metodología propuesta es un análisis de descomposición estructural (ADE), método que permite descomponer los cambios de la variable de interés entre las diferentes fuerzas y revelar la importancia de cada factor. Por otra parte, este estudio considera la importancia del comercio internacional e intenta incluir el “problema de la responsabilidad”. Es decir, a través de las relaciones comerciales internacionales, un país podría estar exportando procesos de producción contaminantes sin una reducción real de la contaminación implícita en su patrón de consumo. Con este fin, siguiendo primero un enfoque basado en la “responsabilidad del productor”, el ADE se aplica a las emisiones causadas por la producción nacional. Sucesivamente, el análisis se mueve hacia un enfoque basado en la “responsabilidad del consumidor" y la descomposición se aplica a las emisiones relacionadas con la producción nacional o la producción extranjera que satisface la demanda interna. De esta manera, el ejercicio permite una primera comprobación de la importancia del comercio internacional y pone de relieve algunos resultados a nivel global y a nivel sectorial.

Self-Organising Maps and Correlation Analysis as a Tool to Explore Patterns in Excitation-Emission Matrix Data Sets and to Discriminate Dissolved Organic Matter Fluorescence Components

Dissolved organic matter (DOM) is a complex mixture of organic compounds, ubiquitous in marine and freshwater systems. Fluorescence spectroscopy, by means of Excitation-Emission Matrices (EEM), has become an indispensable tool to study DOM sources, transport and fate in aquatic ecosystems. However the statistical treatment of large and heterogeneous EEM data sets still represents an important challenge for biogeochemists. Recently, Self-Organising Maps (SOM) has been proposed as a tool to explore patterns in large EEM data sets. SOM is a pattern recognition method which clusterizes and reduces the dimensionality of input EEMs without relying on any assumption about the data structure. In this paper, we show how SOM, coupled with a correlation analysis of the component planes, can be used both to explore patterns among samples, as well as to identify individual fluorescence components. We analysed a large and heterogeneous EEM data set, including samples from a river catchment collected under a range of hydrological conditions, along a 60-km downstream gradient, and under the influence of different degrees of anthropogenic impact. According to our results, chemical industry effluents appeared to have unique and distinctive spectral characteristics. On the other hand, river samples collected under flash flood conditions showed homogeneous EEM shapes. The correlation analysis of the component planes suggested the presence of four fluorescence components, consistent with DOM components previously described in the literature. A remarkable strength of this methodology was that outlier samples appeared naturally integrated in the analysis. We conclude that SOM coupled with a correlation analysis procedure is a promising tool for studying large and heterogeneous EEM data sets.

Subclinical Hypothyroidism and the Risk of Stroke Events and Fatal Stroke: An Individual Participant Data Analysis.

OBJECTIVE: The objective was to determine the risk of stroke associated with subclinical hypothyroidism. DATA SOURCES AND STUDY SELECTION: Published prospective cohort studies were identified through a systematic search through November 2013 without restrictions in several databases. Unpublished studies were identified through the Thyroid Studies Collaboration. We collected individual participant data on thyroid function and stroke outcome. Euthyroidism was defined as TSH levels of 0.45-4.49 mIU/L, and subclinical hypothyroidism was defined as TSH levels of 4.5-19.9 mIU/L with normal T4 levels. DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS: We collected individual participant data on 47 573 adults (3451 subclinical hypothyroidism) from 17 cohorts and followed up from 1972-2014 (489 192 person-years). Age- and sex-adjusted pooled hazard ratios (HRs) for participants with subclinical hypothyroidism compared to euthyroidism were 1.05 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.91-1.21) for stroke events (combined fatal and nonfatal stroke) and 1.07 (95% CI, 0.80-1.42) for fatal stroke. Stratified by age, the HR for stroke events was 3.32 (95% CI, 1.25-8.80) for individuals aged 18-49 years. There was an increased risk of fatal stroke in the age groups 18-49 and 50-64 years, with a HR of 4.22 (95% CI, 1.08-16.55) and 2.86 (95% CI, 1.31-6.26), respectively (p trend 0.04). We found no increased risk for those 65-79 years old (HR, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.86-1.18) or ≥ 80 years old (HR, 1.31; 95% CI, 0.79-2.18). There was a pattern of increased risk of fatal stroke with higher TSH concentrations. CONCLUSIONS: Although no overall effect of subclinical hypothyroidism on stroke could be demonstrated, an increased risk in subjects younger than 65 years and those with higher TSH concentrations was observed.

Particle shape and orientation in laser diffraction and static image analysis size distribution analysis of micrometer sized rectangular particles

Laser diffraction (LD) and static image analysis (SIA) of rectangular particles [United States Pharmacopeia, USP30-NF25, General Chapter <776>, Optical Miroscopy.] have been systematically studied. To rule out sample dispersion and particle orientation as the root cause of differences in size distribution profiles, we immobilize powder samples on a glass plate by means of a dry disperser. For a defined region of the glass plate, we measure the diffraction pattern as induced by the dispersed particles, and the 2D dimensions of the individual particles using LD and optical microscopy, respectively. We demonstrate a correlation between LD and SIA, with the scattering intensity of the individual particles as the dominant factor. In theory, the scattering intensity is related to the square of the projected area of both spherical and rectangular particles. In traditional LD the size distribution profile is dominated by the maximum projected area of the particles (A). The diffraction diameters of a rectangular particle with length L and breadth B as measured by the LD instrument approximately correspond to spheres of diameter ØL and ØB respectively. Differences in the scattering intensity between spherical and rectangular particles suggest that the contribution made to the overall LD volume probability distribution by each rectangular particle is proportional to A2/L and A2/B. Accordingly, for rectangular particles the scattering intensity weighted diffraction diameter (SIWDD) explains an overestimation of their shortest dimension and an underestimation of their longest dimension. This study analyzes various samples of particles whose length ranges from approximately 10 to 1000 μm. The correlation we demonstrate between LD and SIA can be used to improve validation of LD methods based on SIA data for a variety of pharmaceutical powders all with a different rectangular particle size and shape.

Mesoscale numerical analysis of the historical November 1982 heavy precipitation event over Andorra (Eastern Pyrenees)

From 6 to 8 November 1982 one of the most catastrophic flash-flood events was recorded in the Eastern Pyrenees affecting Andorra and also France and Spain with rainfall accumulations exceeding 400 mm in 24 h, 44 fatalities and widespread damage. This paper aims to exhaustively document this heavy precipitation event and examines mesoscale simulations performed by the French Meso-NH non-hydrostatic atmospheric model. Large-scale simulations show the slow-evolving synoptic environment favourable for the development of a deep Atlantic cyclone which induced a strong southerly flow over the Eastern Pyrenees. From the evolution of the synoptic pattern four distinct phases have been identified during the event. The mesoscale analysis presents the second and the third phase as the most intense in terms of rainfall accumulations and highlights the interaction of the moist and conditionally unstable flows with the mountains. The presence of a SW low level jet (30 m s-1) around 1500 m also had a crucial role on focusing the precipitation over the exposed south slopes of the Eastern Pyrenees. Backward trajectories based on Eulerian on-line passive tracers indicate that the orographic uplift was the main forcing mechanism which triggered and maintained the precipitating systems more than 30 h over the Pyrenees. The moisture of the feeding flow mainly came from the Atlantic Ocean (7-9 g kg-1) and the role of the Mediterranean as a local moisture source was very limited (2-3 g kg-1) due to the high initial water vapour content of the parcels and the rapid passage over the basin along the Spanish Mediterranean coast (less than 12 h).

Railway Wagon Market Analysis and New Multi-Purpose Wagon Solution for Freight Transports - Finnish Manufacturing Perspective

Rautateillä käytettävät tavaravaunut ovat vanhenemassa hyvin nopeasti; tämä koskee niin Venäjää, Suomea, Ruotsia kuin laajemminkin Eurooppaa. Venäjällä ja Euroopassa on käytössä runsaasti vaunuja, jotka ovat jo ylittäneet niille suositeltavan käyttöiän. Silti niitä käytetään kuljetuksissa, kun näitä korvaavia uusia vaunuja ei ole tarpeeksi saatavilla. Uusimmat vaunut ovat yleensä vaunuja vuokraavien yritysten tai uusien rautatieoperaattorien hankkimia - tämä koskee erityisesti Venäjää, jossa vaunuvuokraus on noussut erittäin suosituksi vaihtoehdoksi. Ennusteissa kerrotaan vaunupulan kasvavan ainakin vuoteen 2010 saakka. Jos rautateiden suosio rahtikuljetusmuotona kasvaa, niin voimistuva vaunukysyntä jatkuu huomattavan paljon pidemmän aikaa. Euroopan ja Venäjän vaunukannan tilanne näkyy myös sitä palvelevan konepajateollisuuden ongelmina - yleisesti ottaen alan eurooppalaiset yritykset ovat heikosti kannattavia ja niiden liikevaihto ei juuri kasva, venäläiset ja ukrainalaiset yritykset ovat olleet samassa tilanteessa, joskin aivan viime vuosina tilanne on osassa kääntynyt paremmaksi. Kun näiden maanosien yritysten liikevaihtoa, voittoa ja omistaja-arvoa verrataan yhdysvaltalaisiin kilpailijoihin, huomataan että jälkimmäisten suoriutuminen on huomattavan paljon parempaa, ja näillä yrityksillä on myös kyky maksaa osinkoja omistajilleen. Tutkimuksen tarkoituksena oli kehittää uuden tyyppinen kuljetusvaunu Suomen, Venäjän sekä mahdollisesti myös Kiinan väliseen liikenteeseen. Vaunutyypin tarkoituksena olisi kyetä toimimaan monikäyttöisenä, niin raaka-aineiden kuin konttienkin kuljetuksessa, tasapainottaen kuljetusmuotojen aiheuttamaa kuljetuspaino-ongelmaa. Kehitystyön pohjana käytimme yli 1000 venäläisen vaunutyypin tietokantaa, josta valitsimme Data Envelopment Analysis -menetelmällä soveliaimmat vaunut kontinkuljetukseen (lähemmin tarkastelimme n. 40 vaunutyyppiä), jättäen mahdollisimman vähän tyhjää tilaa junaan, mutta silti kyeten kantamaan valitun konttilastin. Kun kantokykyongelmia venäläisissä vaunuissa ei useinkaan ole, on vertailu tehtävissä tavarajunan pituuden ja kokonaispainon perusteella. Simuloituamme yhdistettyihin kuljetuksiin soveliasta vaunutyyppiä käytännössä löytyvässä kuljetusverkostossa (esim. raakapuuta Suomeen tai Kiinaan ja kontteja takaisin Venäjän suuntaan), huomasimme lyhemmän vaunupituuden sisältävän kustannusetua, erityisesti raakaainekuljetuksissa, mutta myös rajanylityspaikkojen mahdollisesti vähentyessä. Lyhempi vaunutyyppi on myös joustavampi erilaisten konttipituuksien suhteen (40 jalan kontin käyttö on yleistynyt viime vuosina). Työn lopuksi ehdotamme uuden vaunutyypin tuotantotavaksi verkostomaista lähestymistapaa, jossa osa vaunusta tehtäisiin Suomessa ja osa Venäjällä ja/tai Ukrainassa. Vaunutyypin tulisi olla rekisteröity Venäjälle, sillä silloin sitä voi käyttää Suomen ja Venäjän, kuten myös soveltuvin osin Venäjän ja Kiinan välisessä liikenteessä.

Are traffic violators criminals? Searching for answers in experiences of European countries

The connection between road traffic safety and criminal behavior has recently become a topic of interest in the literature, although little emphasis placed on the relationship with road accidents. Evidence worldwide shows that people who commit other offences characteristic of antisocial attitudes, are more prone to suffer road traffic accidents and infringe traffic laws. Here we examine the records of the 28 current member states of the European Union over the period 1999 - 2010. Our aim is to test the hypothesis that crime rates (and specifically, motor vehicle-related crimes) may be considered as predictors of fatal road traffic accidents. If they may, this could justify, at least prima facie, the tendency in several countries to consider traffic offences as crimes in their penal codes and to toughen the punishment imposed on those who commit them. We also analyze the effect of the severity of the legal system applied to traffic offences. Our results reveal that road traffic fatality rates are higher in countries whose inhabitants have more aggressive behavior, while the rates are lower in countries with more severe penal systems.

Are traffic violators criminals? Searching for answers in experiences of European countries

The connection between road traffic safety and criminal behavior has recently become a topic of interest in the literature, although little emphasis placed on the relationship with road accidents. Evidence worldwide shows that people who commit other offences characteristic of antisocial attitudes, are more prone to suffer road traffic accidents and infringe traffic laws. Here we examine the records of the 28 current member states of the European Union over the period 1999 - 2010. Our aim is to test the hypothesis that crime rates (and specifically, motor vehicle-related crimes) may be considered as predictors of fatal road traffic accidents. If they may, this could justify, at least prima facie, the tendency in several countries to consider traffic offences as crimes in their penal codes and to toughen the punishment imposed on those who commit them. We also analyze the effect of the severity of the legal system applied to traffic offences. Our results reveal that road traffic fatality rates are higher in countries whose inhabitants have more aggressive behavior, while the rates are lower in countries with more severe penal systems.

Lowering blood alcohol content levels to save lives: A European case study

Road safety has become an increasing concern in developed countries due to the significant amount of fatalities and the associated economic losses. Only in 2005 these losses rose to 200,000 million euros, a considerable sum ¿ approximately 2% of GDP ¿ that easily justifies any public intervention. One measure taken by governments to address this issue is to enact stricter policies and regulations. Since drunk driving is one of the greatest concerns among public authorities in this field, several European countries have lowered their illegal Blood Alcohol Content (BAC) levels to 0.5 mg/ml during the last decade. This study is the first evaluation of the effectiveness of this transition using European panel-based data (CARE) for the period 1991-2003 with the differences-in-differences method in a fixed effects estimation that allows for any pattern of correlation (Cluster-Robust). The results reveal a positive impact on certain groups of road users and on the whole population when the policy is accompanied by enforcement interventions. Moreover, positive results appeared after a time lag of over two years. Finally, I state the importance of controlling for serial correlation in the evaluation of this type of policy.

Lowering blood alcohol content levels to save lives: A European case study

Road safety has become an increasing concern in developed countries due to the significant amount of fatalities and the associated economic losses. Only in 2005 these losses rose to 200,000 million euros, a considerable sum ¿ approximately 2% of GDP ¿ that easily justifies any public intervention. One measure taken by governments to address this issue is to enact stricter policies and regulations. Since drunk driving is one of the greatest concerns among public authorities in this field, several European countries have lowered their illegal Blood Alcohol Content (BAC) levels to 0.5 mg/ml during the last decade. This study is the first evaluation of the effectiveness of this transition using European panel-based data (CARE) for the period 1991-2003 with the differences-in-differences method in a fixed effects estimation that allows for any pattern of correlation (Cluster-Robust). The results reveal a positive impact on certain groups of road users and on the whole population when the policy is accompanied by enforcement interventions. Moreover, positive results appeared after a time lag of over two years. Finally, I state the importance of controlling for serial correlation in the evaluation of this type of policy.

Cell fusion reprogramming leads to a specific hepatic expression pattern during mouse bone marrow derived hepatocyte formation In Vivo

The fusion of bone marrow (BM) hematopoietic cells with hepatocytes to generate BM derived hepatocytes (BMDH) is a natural process, which is enhanced in damaged tissues. However, the reprogramming needed to generate BMDH and the identity of the resultant cells is essentially unknown. In a mouse model of chronic liver damage, here we identify a modification in the chromatin structure of the hematopoietic nucleus during BMDH formation, accompanied by the loss of the key hematopoietic transcription factor PU.1/Sfpi1 (SFFV proviral integration 1) and gain of the key hepatic transcriptional regulator HNF-1A homeobox A (HNF-1A/Hnf1a). Through genome-wide expression analysis of laser captured BMDH, a differential gene expression pattern was detected and the chromatin changes observed were confirmed at the level of chromatin regulator genes. Similarly, Tranforming Growth Factor-β1 (TGF-β1) and neurotransmitter (e.g. Prostaglandin E Receptor 4 [Ptger4]) pathway genes were over-expressed. In summary, in vivo BMDH generation is a process in which the hematopoietic cell nucleus changes its identity and acquires hepatic features. These BMDHs have their own cell identity characterized by an expression pattern different from hematopoietic cells or hepatocytes. The role of these BMDHs in the liver requires further investigation.

Post-partum persistence of abnormal circadian pattern of blood pressure after preeclampsia [109-POS]

OBJECTIVES: Blunted nocturnal dip of blood pressure (BP) and reversed circadian rhythm have been described in preeclampsia (PE). Non-dipper status and preeclampsia are both associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular disease later in life. Complete recovery of BP in PE is reported to occur over a variable period of time. Twenty-four hours-ambulatory blood pressure measurement (ABPM) in the post-partum follow-up after a PE has not been described. The aim of this study was to assess 24h-ambulatory blood pressure pattern after a PE and to determine the prevalence of non-dipper status, nocturnal hypertension, white coat hypertension and masked hypertension. METHODS: This is an observational, prospective study on women who suffered from a preeclampsia. A 24h-ABPM was done 6 weeks post-partum at the Hypertension Unit of the University Hospitals of Geneva, concomitantly with a clinical and biological evaluation. RESULTS: Forty-five women were included in a preliminary analysis. Mean age was 33±6years, 57.3% were Caucasian, mean BMI before pregnancy was 24±5kg/m(2). Office and ambulatory BP are shown in Table 1. Prevalence of nocturnal hypertension was high and half of the women had no nocturnal dipping. The diagnosis of hypertension based on office BP was discordant with the diagnosis based on ABPM in 25% of women. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of increased nighttime BP and abnormal BP pattern is high at 6weeks post-partum in preeclamptic women. Early assessment of BP with ABPM after preeclampsia allows an early identification of women with persistent circadian abnormalities who might be at increased risk. It also provides a more accurate assessment than office BP. DISCLOSURES: A. Ditisheim: None. B. Ponte: None. G. Wuerzner: None. M. Burnier: None. M. Boulvain: None. A. Pechère-Bertschi: None.