Using Bayes' rule to define the value of evidence from syndromic surveillance

In this work we propose the adoption of a statistical framework used in the evaluation of forensic evidence as a tool for evaluating and presenting circumstantial "evidence" of a disease outbreak from syndromic surveillance. The basic idea is to exploit the predicted distributions of reported cases to calculate the ratio of the likelihood of observing n cases given an ongoing outbreak over the likelihood of observing n cases given no outbreak. The likelihood ratio defines the Value of Evidence (V). Using Bayes' rule, the prior odds for an ongoing outbreak are multiplied by V to obtain the posterior odds. This approach was applied to time series on the number of horses showing clinical respiratory symptoms or neurological symptoms. The separation between prior beliefs about the probability of an outbreak and the strength of evidence from syndromic surveillance offers a transparent reasoning process suitable for supporting decision makers. The value of evidence can be translated into a verbal statement, as often done in forensics or used for the production of risk maps. Furthermore, a Bayesian approach offers seamless integration of data from syndromic surveillance with results from predictive modeling and with information from other sources such as disease introduction risk assessments.

Morphological ripening of fluid inclusions and coupled zone-refining in quartz crystals revealed by cathodoluminescence imaging: Implications for CL-petrography, fluid inclusion analysis and trace-element geothermometry

Cathodoluminescence (CL) studies have previously shown that some secondary fluid inclusions in luminescent quartz are surrounded by dark, non-luminescent patches, resulting from fracture-sealing by late, trace-element-poor quartz. This finding has led to the tacit generalization that all dark CL patches indicate influx of low temperature, late-stage fluids. In this study we have examined natural and synthetic hydrothermal quartz crystals using CL imaging supplemented by in-situ elemental analysis. The results lead us to propose that all natural, liquid-water-bearing inclusions in quartz, whether trapped on former crystal growth surfaces (i.e., of primary origin) or in healed fractures (i.e., of pseudosecondary or secondary origin), are surrounded by three-dimensional, non-luminescent patches. Cross-cutting relations show that the patches form after entrapment of the fluid inclusions and therefore they are not diagnostic of the timing of fluid entrapment. Instead, the dark patches reveal the mechanism by which fluid inclusions spontaneously approach morphological equilibrium and purify their host quartz over geological time. Fluid inclusions that contain solvent water perpetually dissolve and reprecipitate their walls, gradually adopting low-energy euhedral and equant shapes. Defects in the host quartz constitute solubility gradients that drive physical migration of the inclusions over distances of tens of μm (commonly) up to several mm (rarely). Inclusions thus sequester from their walls any trace elements (e.g., Li, Al, Na, Ti) present in excess of equilibrium concentrations, thereby chemically purifying their host crystals in a process analogous to industrial zone refining. Non-luminescent patches of quartz are left in their wake. Fluid inclusions that contain no liquid water as solvent (e.g., inclusions of low-density H2O vapor or other non-aqueous volatiles) do not undergo this process and therefore do not migrate, do not modify their shapes with time, and are not associated with dark-CL zone-refined patches. This new understanding has implications for the interpretation of solids within fluid inclusions (e.g., Ti- and Al-minerals) and for the elemental analysis of hydrothermal and metamorphic quartz and its fluid inclusions by microbeam methods such as LA-ICPMS and SIMS. As Ti is a common trace element in quartz, its sequestration by fluid inclusions and its depletion in zone-refined patches impacts on applications of the Ti-in-quartz geothermometer.

Δ I = 1 / 2 rule for kaon decays derived from QCD infrared fixed point

This article gives details of our proposal to replace ordinary chiral SU(3)L×SU(3)R perturbation theory χPT3 by three-flavor chiral-scale perturbation theory χPTσ. In χPTσ, amplitudes are expanded at low energies and small u,d,s quark masses about an infrared fixed point αIR of three-flavor QCD. At αIR, the quark condensate ⟨q¯q⟩vac≠0 induces nine Nambu-Goldstone bosons: π,K,η, and a 0++ QCD dilaton σ. Physically, σ appears as the f0(500) resonance, a pole at a complex mass with real part ≲ mK. The ΔI=1/2 rule for nonleptonic K decays is then a consequence of χPTσ, with a KSσ coupling fixed by data for γγ→ππ and KS→γγ. We estimate RIR≈5 for the nonperturbative Drell-Yan ratio R=σ(e+e−→hadrons)/σ(e+e−→μ+μ−) at αIR and show that, in the many-color limit, σ/f0 becomes a narrow qq¯ state with planar-gluon corrections. Rules for the order of terms in χPTσ loop expansions are derived in Appendix A and extended in Appendix B to include inverse-power Li-Pagels singularities due to external operators. This relates to an observation that, for γγ channels, partial conservation of the dilatation current is not equivalent to σ-pole dominance.

Fluid-related inclusions in Alpine high-pressure peridotite reveal trace element recycling during subduction-zone dehydration of serpentinized mantle (Cima di Gagnone, Swiss Alps).

Serpentinites release at sub-arc depths volatiles and several fluid-mobile trace elements found in arc magmas. Constraining element uptake in these rocks and defining the trace element composition of fluids released upon serpentinite dehydration can improve our understanding of mass transfer across subduction zones and to volcanic arcs. The eclogite-facies garnet metaperidotite and chlorite harzburgite bodies embedded in paragneiss of the subduction melange from Cima di Gagnone derive from serpentinized peridotite protoliths and are unique examples of ultramafic rocks that experienced subduction metasomatism and devolatilization. In these rocks, metamorphic olivine and garnet trap polyphase inclusions representing the fluid released during high-pressure breakdown of antigorite and chlorite. Combining major element mapping and laser-ablation ICP-MS bulk inclusion analysis, we characterize the mineral content of polyphase inclusions and quantify the fluid composition. Silicates, Cl-bearing phases, sulphides, carbonates, and oxides document post-entrapment mineral growth in the inclusions starting immediately after fluid entrapment. Compositional data reveal the presence of two different fluid types. The first (type A) records a fluid prominently enriched in fluid-mobile elements, with Cl, Cs, Pb, As, Sb concentrations up to 10(3) PM (primitive mantle), similar to 10(2) PM Tit Ba, while Rb, B, Sr, Li, U concentrations are of the order of 10(1) PM, and alkalis are similar to 2 PM. The second fluid (type B) has considerably lower fluid-mobile element enrichments, but its enrichment patterns are comparable to type A fluid. Our data reveal multistage fluid uptake in these peridotite bodies, including selective element enrichment during seafloor alteration, followed by fluid-rock interaction along with subduction metamorphism in the plate interface melange. Here, infiltration of sediment-equilibrated fluid produced significant enrichment of the serpentinites in As, Sb, B, Pb, an enriched trace element pattern that was then transferred to the fluid released at greater depth upon serpentine dehydration (type A fluid). The type B fluid hosted by garnet may record the composition of the chlorite breakdown fluid released at even greater depth. The Gagnone study-case demonstrates that serpentinized peridotites acquire water and fluid-mobile elements during ocean floor hydration and through exchange with sediment-equilibrated fluids in the early subduction stages. Subsequent antigorite devolatilization at subarc depths delivers aqueous fluids to the mantle wedge that can be prominently enriched in sediment-derived components, potentially triggering arc magmatism without the need of concomitant dehydration/melting of metasediments or altered oceanic crust.

Eclogitic diamonds from variable crustal protoliths in the northeastern Siberian craton: trace elements and coupled δ13C – δ18O signatures in diamonds and garnet inclusions

Diamonds of eclogitic assemblages are dominant in the placer diamond deposits of the northeastern Siberian platform. In this study we present new trace elements and stable isotopes (δ13C and δ18O) data for alluvial diamonds and their garnet inclusions from this locality. Cr-rich garnets of peridotitic affinity in the studied diamonds have a narrow range of δ18O values from 5.7‰ to 6.2‰, which is largely overlapping with the accepted mantle range. This narrow range suggests that the garnet inclusions showing different REE patterns and little variations in oxygen isotopes may have formed by different processes involving fluid/melts that, however, were in oxygen isotopic equilibrium with the mantle. The trace element composition of the eclogitic garnet inclusions supports a crustal origin for at least the high-Ca garnets, which show flat HREE patterns and in some cases a positive Eu-anomaly. High-Ca eclogitic garnets generally show heavier oxygen isotope compositions (δ18O 6.5–9.6‰) than what is observed in low-Ca garnets (δ18O 5.7–7.4‰). The variability in oxygen isotopes and trace elements is suggested to be inherited from contrasting crustal protoliths. The relationship between the high δ18O values of inclusions and the low δ13C values of the host diamonds implies that the high-Ca garnet inclusions were derived from intensely hydrated (e.g., δ18O > 7‰) and typically oxidised basaltic rock close to the seawater interface, and that the carbon for diamonds was closely associated with this protolith.

Electrostatic sampling of trace DNA from clothing.

During acts of physical aggression, offenders frequently come into contact with clothes of the victim, thereby leaving traces of DNA-bearing biological material on the garments. Since tape-lifting and swabbing, the currently established methods for non-destructive trace DNA sampling from clothing, both have their shortcomings in collection efficiency and handling, we thought about a new collection method for these challenging samples. Testing two readily available electrostatic devices for their potential to sample biological material from garments made of different fabrics, we found one of them, the electrostatic dust print lifter (DPL), to perform comparable to well-established sampling with wet cotton swabs. In simulated aggression scenarios, we had the same success rate for the establishment of single aggressor profiles, suitable for database submission, with both the DPL and wet swabbing. However, we lost a substantial amount of information with electrostatic sampling, since almost no mixed aggressor-victim profiles suitable for database entry could be established, compared to conventional swabbing. This study serves as a proof of principle for electrostatic DNA sampling from items of clothing. The technique still requires optimization before it might be used in real casework. But we are confident that in the future it could be an efficient and convenient contribution to the toolbox of forensic practitioners.

Clinical usefulness of gene-expression profile to rule out acute rejection after heart transplantation: CARGO II.

AIMS A non-invasive gene-expression profiling (GEP) test for rejection surveillance of heart transplant recipients originated in the USA. A European-based study, Cardiac Allograft Rejection Gene Expression Observational II Study (CARGO II), was conducted to further clinically validate the GEP test performance. METHODS AND RESULTS Blood samples for GEP testing (AlloMap(®), CareDx, Brisbane, CA, USA) were collected during post-transplant surveillance. The reference standard for rejection status was based on histopathology grading of tissue from endomyocardial biopsy. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC), negative (NPVs), and positive predictive values (PPVs) for the GEP scores (range 0-39) were computed. Considering the GEP score of 34 as a cut-off (>6 months post-transplantation), 95.5% (381/399) of GEP tests were true negatives, 4.5% (18/399) were false negatives, 10.2% (6/59) were true positives, and 89.8% (53/59) were false positives. Based on 938 paired biopsies, the GEP test score AUC-ROC for distinguishing ≥3A rejection was 0.70 and 0.69 for ≥2-6 and >6 months post-transplantation, respectively. Depending on the chosen threshold score, the NPV and PPV range from 98.1 to 100% and 2.0 to 4.7%, respectively. CONCLUSION For ≥2-6 and >6 months post-transplantation, CARGO II GEP score performance (AUC-ROC = 0.70 and 0.69) is similar to the CARGO study results (AUC-ROC = 0.71 and 0.67). The low prevalence of ACR contributes to the high NPV and limited PPV of GEP testing. The choice of threshold score for practical use of GEP testing should consider overall clinical assessment of the patient's baseline risk for rejection.

An Avron rule for fragments of R-mingle

Axiomatic bases of admissible rules are obtained for fragments of the substructural logic R-mingle. In particular, it is shown that a ‘modus-ponens-like’ rule introduced by Arnon Avron forms a basis for the admissible rules of its implication and implication–fusion fragments, while a basis for the admissible rules of the full multiplicative fragment requires an additional countably infinite set of rules. Indeed, this latter case provides an example of a three-valued logic with a finitely axiomatizable consequence relation that has no finite basis for its admissible rules.

Regionalist Protest through Shared Rule? Peripherality and the Use of Cantonal Initiatives in Switzerland

In this article, we are interested in the extent to which federalism is able to deal with peripheral protest through shared rule channels. Shared rule as a key dimension of federal states has not thus far received adequate academic attention. Empirically, we analyse the use of all cantonal initiatives in Switzerland over the past 25 years as a particular instrument of shared rule, subsequently focusing on two peripheral regions with successful regionalist parties, Ticino and Geneva. We find that regionalist parties contribute towards radicalizing peripheral demands in search of attention from the centre. This leads to the mainstreaming of peripheral demands by pulling other parties along. We conclude that shared rule properly designed gives even the most peripheral regions a voice in national decisions, but that regionalist parties may also use shared rule instruments to mobilize their electorate at home to fight their non-regionalist competitors.

The Interplay between Melting, Refertilization and Carbonatite Metasomatism in Off-Cratonic Lithospheric Mantle under Zealandia: an Integrated Major, Trace and Platinum Group Element Study

It is widely accepted that stabilization of the continental crust requires the presence of sub-continental lithospheric mantle. However, the degree of melt depletion required to stabilize the lithosphere and whether widespread refertilization is a significant process remain unresolved. Here, major and trace element, including platinum group elements (PGE), characterization of 40 mantle xenoliths from 13 localities is used to constrain the melt depletion, refertilization and metasomatic history of lithospheric mantle underneath the micro-continent Zealandia. Our previously published Re–Os isotopic data for a subset of these xenoliths indicate Phanerozoic to Paleoproterozoic ages and, reinterpreted with the new major and trace element data presented here, demonstrate that a large volume (>2 million km3) of lithospheric mantle with an age of 1·99 ± 0·21 Ga is present below the much younger crust of Zealandia. A peritectic melting model using moderately incompatible trace elements (e.g. Yb) in bulk-rocks demonstrates that these peridotites experienced a significant range of degrees of partial melting, between 3 and 28%. During subsolidus equilibration clinopyroxene gains significant rare earth elements (REE), which then leads to the underestimation of the degree of partial melting by ≤12% in fertile xenoliths. A new approach taking into account the effects of subsolidus re-equilibration on clinopyroxene composition effectively removes discrepancies in the calculated degree of melting and provides consistent estimates of between 4 and 29%. The estimated amount of melting is independent of the Re–Os model ages of the samples. The PGE patterns record simple melt depletion histories and the retention of primary base metal sulfides in the majority of the xenoliths. A rapid decrease in Pt/IrN observed at c. 1·0 wt % Al2O3 is a direct result of the exhaustion of sulfide in the mantle residue at c. 20–25% partial melting and the inability of Pt to form a stable alloy phase. Major elements preserve evidence for refertilization by a basaltic component that resulted in the formation of secondary clinopyroxene and low-forsterite olivine. The majority of xenoliths show the effects of cryptic metasomatic overprinting, ranging from minor to strong light REE enrichments in bulk-rocks (La/YbN = 0·16–15·9). Metasomatism is heterogeneous, with samples varying from those with weak REE enrichment and notable positive Sr and U–Th anomalies and negative Nb–Ta anomalies in clinopyroxene to those that have extremely high concentrations of REE, Th–U and Nb. Chemical compositions are consistent with a carbonatitic component contributing to the metasomatism of the lithosphere under Zealandia. Notably, the intense metasomatism of the samples did not affect the PGE budget of the peridotites as this was controlled by residual sulfides.