Contagion or Interdependence in the recent Global Financial Crisis? An application to the stock markets using unconditional cross-market correlations

We consider stock market contagion as a significant increase in cross-market linkages after a shock to one country or group of countries. Under this definition we study if contagion occurred from the U.S. Financial Crisis to the rest of the major stock markets in the world by using the adjusted (unconditional) correlation coefficient approach (Forbes and Rigobon, 2002) which consists of testing if average crossmarket correlations increase significantly during the relevant period of turmoil. We would not reject the null hypothesis of interdependence in favour of contagion if the increase in correlation only suggests a continuation of high linkages in all state of the world. Moreover, if contagion occurs, this would justify the intervention of the IMF and the suddenly portfolio restructuring during the period under study.

Influence of preoperative leg pain and radiculopathy on outcomes in mono-segmental lumbar total disc replacement: results from a nationwide registry.

PURPOSE: Currently, many pre-conditions are regarded as relative or absolute contraindications for lumbar total disc replacement (TDR). Radiculopathy is one among them. In Switzerland it is left to the surgeon's discretion when to operate if he adheres to a list of pre-defined indications. Contraindications, however, are less clearly specified. We hypothesized that, the extent of pre-operative radiculopathy results in different benefits for patients treated with mono-segmental lumbar TDR. We used patient perceived leg pain and its correlation with physician recorded radiculopathy for creating the patient groups to be compared. METHODS: The present study is based on the dataset of SWISSspine, a government mandated health technology assessment registry. Between March 2005 and April 2009, 577 patients underwent either mono- or bi-segmental lumbar TDR, which was documented in a prospective observational multicenter mode. A total of 416 cases with a mono-segmental procedure were included in the study. The data collection consisted of pre-operative and follow-up data (physician based) and clinical outcomes (NASS form, EQ-5D). A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was conducted with patients' self-indicated leg pain and the surgeon-based diagnosis "radiculopathy", as marked on the case report forms. As a result, patients were divided into two groups according to the severity of leg pain. The two groups were compared with regard to the pre-operative patient characteristics and pre- and post-operative pain on Visual Analogue Scale (VAS) and quality of life using general linear modeling. RESULTS: The optimal ROC model revealed a leg pain threshold of 40 ≤ VAS > 40 for the absence or the presence of "radiculopathy". Demographics in the resulting two groups were well comparable. Applying this threshold, the mean pre-operative leg pain level was 16.5 points in group 1 and 68.1 points in group 2 (p < 0.001). Back pain levels differed less with 63.6 points in group 1 and 72.6 in group 2 (p < 0.001). Pre-operative quality of life showed considerable differences with an 0.44 EQ-5D score in group 1 and 0.29 in group 2 (p < 0.001, possible score range -0.6 to 1). At a mean follow-up time of 8 months, group 1 showed a mean leg pain improvement of 3.6 points and group 2 of 41.1 points (p < 0.001). Back pain relief was 35.6 and 39.1 points, respectively (p = 0.27). EQ-5D score improvement was 0.27 in group 1 and 0.41 in group 2 (p = 0.11). CONCLUSIONS: Patients labeled as having radiculopathy (group 2) do mostly have pre-operative leg pain levels ≥ 40. Applying this threshold, the patients with pre-operative leg pain do also have more severe back pain and a considerably lower quality of life. Their net benefit from the lumbar TDR is higher and they do have similar post-operative back and leg pain levels as well as the quality of life as patients without pre-operative leg pain. Although randomized controlled trials are required to confirm these findings, they put leg pain and radiculopathy into perspective as absolute contraindications for TDR.

Benefit of Cup Medialization in Total Hip Arthroplasty is Associated With Femoral Anatomy.

BACKGROUND: Medialization of the cup with a respective increase in femoral offset has been proposed in THA to increase abductor moment arms. Insofar as there are potential disadvantages to cup medialization, it is important to ascertain whether the purported biomechanical benefits of cup medialization are large enough to warrant the downsides; to date, studies regarding this question have disagreed. QUESTIONS/PURPOSES: The purpose of this study was to quantify the effect of cup medialization with a compensatory increase in femoral offset compared with anatomic reconstruction for patients undergoing THA. We tested the hypothesis that there is a (linear) correlation between preoperative anatomic parameters and muscle moment arm increase caused by cup medialization. METHODS: Fifteen patients undergoing THA were selected, covering a typical range of preoperative femoral offsets. For each patient, a finite element model was built based on a preoperative CT scan. The model included the pelvis, femur, gluteus minimus, medius, and maximus. Two reconstructions were compared: (1) anatomic position of the acetabular center of rotation, and (2) cup medialization compensated by an increase in the femoral offset. Passive abduction-adduction and flexion-extension were simulated in the range of normal gait. Muscle moment arms were evaluated and correlated to preoperative femoral offset, acetabular offset, height of the greater trochanter (relative to femoral center of rotation), and femoral antetorsion angle. RESULTS: The increase of muscle moment arms caused by cup medialization varied among patients. Muscle moment arms increase by 10% to 85% of the amount of cup medialization for abduction-adduction and from -35% (decrease) to 50% for flexion-extension. The change in moment arm was inversely correlated (R(2) = 0.588, p = 0.001) to femoral antetorsion (anteversion), such that patients with less femoral antetorsion gained more in terms of hip muscle moments. No linear correlation was observed between changes in moment arm and other preoperative parameters in this series. CONCLUSIONS: The benefit of cup medialization is variable and depends on the individual anatomy. CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Cup medialization with compensatory increase of the femoral offset may be particularly effective in patients with less femoral antetorsion. However, cup medialization must be balanced against its tradeoffs, including the additional loss of medial acetabular bone stock, and eventual proprioceptive implications of the nonanatomic center of rotation and perhaps joint reaction forces. Clinical studies should better determine the relevance of small changes of moment arms on function and joint reaction forces.

Comparisons of preoperative three-dimensional planning and surgical reconstruction in primary cementless total hip arthroplasty.

Reconstruction of important parameters such as femoral offset and torsion is inaccurate, when templating is based on plain x-rays. We evaluate intraoperative reproducibility of pre-operative CT-based 3D-templating in a consecutive series of 50 patients undergoing primary cementless THA through an anterior approach. Pre-operative planning was compared to a postoperative CT scan by image fusion. The implant size was correctly predicted in 100% of the stems, 94% of the cups and 88% of the heads (length). The difference between the planned and the postoperative leg length was 0.3 + 2.3 mm. Values for overall offset, femoral anteversion, cup inclination and anteversion were 1.4 mm ± 3.1, 0.6° ± 3.3°, -0.4° ± 5° and 6.9° ± 11.4°, respectively. This planning allows accurate implant size prediction. Stem position and cup inclination are accurately reproducible.

Validation française de l'échelle d'expérience temporelle du plaisir [Validation of the Temporal Experience of Pleasure Scale (TEPS) in a French-speaking environment.]

INTRODUCTION: Anhedonia is defined as a diminished capacity to experience pleasant emotion and is commonly included among the negative symptoms of schizophrenia. However, if patients report experiencing a lower level of pleasure than controls, they report experiencing as much pleasure as controls with online measurements of emotion. OBJECTIVE: The Temporal Experience of Pleasure Scale (TEPS) measures pleasure experienced in the moment and in anticipation of future activities. The TEPS is an 18-item self-report measurement of anticipatory (10 items) and consummatory (eight items) pleasure. The goal of this paper is to assess the psychometric characteristics of the French translation of this scale. METHODS: A control sample was composed of 60 women and 22 men, with a mean age of 38.1 years (S.D.: 10.8). Thirty-six were without qualification and 46 with qualified professional diploma. A sample of 21 patients meeting DSM IV-TR criteria for schizophrenia was recruited among the community psychiatry service of the department of psychiatry in Lausanne. They were five women and 16 men; mean age was of 34.1 years (S.D.: 7.5). Ten obtained a professional qualification and 11 were without qualification. None worked in competitive employment. Their mean dose of chlorpromazine equivalent was 431mg (S.D.: 259). All patients were on atypical antipsychotics. The control sample fulfilled the TEPS and the Physical Anhedonia Scale (PAS). The patient sample fulfilled the TEPS and was independently rated on the Calgary Depression Scale and the Scale for Assessment of Negative Symptoms. For comparison with controls, patients were matched on age, sex and professional qualification. This required the supplementary recruitment of two control subjects. RESULTS: Results with the control sample indicate that the TEPS presents an acceptable internal validity with Crombach alphas of 0.84 for the total scale, 0.74 for the anticipatory pleasure scale and 0.79 for the consummatory pleasure scale. The confirmatory factor analysis indicated that the model is well adapted to our data (chi(2)/dl=1.333; df=134; p<0.0006; root mean square residual, RMSEA=0.064). External validity measured with the PAS showed R=-0.27 (p<0.05) for the consummatory scale and R=-0.26 for the total score. Comparisons between patients and matched controls indicated that patients were significantly lower than control on anticipatory pleasure (t=2.7, df(40), 2-tailed p=0.01; cohen's d=0.83) and on total score of the TEPS (t=2.8, df (40), 2-tailed p=0.01; cohen's d=0.87). The two samples did not differ on consummatory pleasure. The anticipatory pleasure factor and the total TEPS showed significant negative correlation with the SANS anhedonia, respectively R=-0.78 (p<0.01) for the anticipatory factor and R=-0.61 (p<0.01) for the total TEPS. There was also a negative correlation between the anticipatory factor and the SANS avolition of R=-0.50 (p<0.05). These correlations were maintained, with partial correlations controlling for depression and chlorpromazine equivalents. CONCLUSION: The results of this validation show that the French version of the TEPS has psychometric characteristics similar to the original version. These results highlight the discrepancy between results of direct or indirect report of experienced pleasure in patients with schizophrenia. Patients may have difficulties in anticipating the pleasure of future enjoyable activities, but not in experiencing pleasure once in an enjoyable activity. Medication and depression do not seems to modify our results, but this should be better controlled in a longitudinal study. The anticipatory versus consummatory pleasure distinction appears to be useful for the development of new psychosocial interventions, tailored to improve desire in patients suffering from schizophrenia. Major limitations of the study are the small size of patient sample and the under representation of men in the control sample.

Direct detection of a BRAF mutation in total RNA from melanoma cells using cantilever arrays.

Malignant melanoma, the deadliest form of skin cancer, is characterized by a predominant mutation in the BRAF gene. Drugs that target tumours carrying this mutation have recently entered the clinic. Accordingly, patients are routinely screened for mutations in this gene to determine whether they can benefit from this type of treatment. The current gold standard for mutation screening uses real-time polymerase chain reaction and sequencing methods. Here we show that an assay based on microcantilever arrays can detect the mutation nanomechanically without amplification in total RNA samples isolated from melanoma cells. The assay is based on a BRAF-specific oligonucleotide probe. We detected mutant BRAF at a concentration of 500 pM in a 50-fold excess of the wild-type sequence. The method was able to distinguish melanoma cells carrying the mutation from wild-type cells using as little as 20 ng µl(-1) of RNA material, without prior PCR amplification and use of labels.

Correlations between imatinib pharmacokinetics, pharmacodynamics, adherence, and clinical response in advanced metastatic gastrointestinal stromal tumor (GIST): An emerging role for drug blood level testing?

Imatinib is the standard of care for patients with advanced metastatic gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GIST), and is also approved for adjuvant treatment in patients at substantial risk of relapse. Studies have shown that maximizing benefit from imatinib depends on long-term administration at recommended doses. Pharmacokinetic (PK) and pharmacodynamic factors, adherence, and drug-drug interactions can affect exposure to imatinib and impact clinical outcomes. This article reviews the relevance of these factors to imatinib's clinical activity and response in the context of what has been demonstrated in chronic myelogenous leukemia (CML), and in light of new data correlating imatinib exposure to response in patients with GIST. Because of the wide inter-patient variability in drug exposure with imatinib in both CML and GIST, blood level testing (BLT) may play a role in investigating instances of suboptimal response, unusually severe toxicities, drug-drug interactions, and suspected non-adherence. Published clinical data in CML and in GIST were considered, including data from a PK substudy of the B2222 trial correlating imatinib blood levels with clinical responses in patients with GIST. Imatinib trough plasma levels <1100ng/mL were associated with lower rates of objective response and faster development of progressive disease in patients with GIST. These findings have been supported by other analyses correlating free imatinib (unbound) levels with response. These results suggest a future application for imatinib BLT in predicting and optimizing therapeutic response. Nevertheless, early estimates of threshold imatinib blood levels must be confirmed prospectively in future studies and elaborated for different patient subgroups.

Total knee arthroplasty - a clinical and numerical study of the micromovements of the tibial implant

Introduction The importance of the micromovements in the mechanism of aseptic loosening is clinically difficult to evaluate. To complete the analysis of a series of total knee arthroplasties (TKA), we used a tridimensional numerical model to study the micromovements of the tibial implant.Material and Methods Fifty one patients (with 57 cemented Porous Coated Anatomic TKAs) were reviewed (mean follow-up 4.5 year). Radiolucency at the tibial bone-cement interface was sought on the AP radiographs and divided in 7 areas. The distribution of the radiolucency was then correlated with the axis of the lower limb as measured on the orthoradiograms.The tridimensional numerical model is based on the finite element method. It allowed the measurement of the cemented prosthetic tibial implant's displacements and the microvements generated at bone-ciment interface. A total load (2000 Newton) was applied at first vertically and asymetrically on the tibial plateau, thereby simulating an axial deviation of the lower limbs. The vector's posterior inclination then permitted the addition of a tangential component to the axial load. This type of effort is generated by complex biomechanical phenomena such as knee flexion.Results 81 per cent of the 57 knees had a radiolucent line of at least 1 mm, at one or more of the tibial cement-epiphysis jonctional areas. The distribution of these lucent lines showed that they came out more frequently at the periphery of the implant. The lucent lines appeared most often under the unloaded margin of the tibial plateau, when axial deviation of lower limbs was present.Numerical simulations showed that asymetrical loading on the tibial plateau induced a subsidence of the loaded margin (0-100 microns) and lifting off at the opposite border (0-70 microns). The postero-anterior tangential component induced an anterior displacement of the tibial implant (160-220 microns), and horizontal micromovements with non homogenous distribution at the bone-ciment interface (28-54 microns).Discussion Comparison of clinical and numerical results showed a relation between the development of radiolucent lines and the unloading of the tibial implant's margin. The deleterious effect of lower limbs' axial deviation is thereby proven. The irregular distribution of lucent lines under the tibial plateau was similar of the micromovements' repartition at the bone-cement interface when tangential forces were present. A causative relation between the two phenomenaes could not however be established.Numerical simulation is a truly useful method of study; it permits to calculate micromovements which are relative, non homogenous and of very low amplitude. However, comparative clinical studies remain as essential to ensure the credibility of results.

Heterozygosity-fitness correlations among wild populations of European tree frogs (Hyla arborea) detect fixation load.

Quantifying the impacts of inbreeding and genetic drift on fitness traits in fragmented populations is becoming a major goal in conservation biology. Such impacts occur at different levels and involve different sets of loci. Genetic drift randomly fixes slightly deleterious alleles leading to different fixation load among populations. By contrast, inbreeding depression arises from highly deleterious alleles in segregation within a population and creates variation among individuals. A popular approach is to measure correlations between molecular variation and phenotypic performances. This approach has been mainly used at the individual level to detect inbreeding depression within populations and sometimes at the population level but without consideration about the genetic processes measured. For the first time, we used in this study a molecular approach considering both the interpopulation and intrapopulation level to discriminate the relative importance of inbreeding depression vs. fixation load in isolated and non-fragmented populations of European tree frog (Hyla arborea), complemented with interpopulational crosses. We demonstrated that the positive correlations observed between genetic heterozygosity and larval performances on merged data were mainly caused by co-variations in genetic diversity and fixation load among populations rather than by inbreeding depression and segregating deleterious alleles within populations. Such a method is highly relevant in a conservation perspective because, depending on how populations lose fitness (inbreeding vs. fixation load), specific management actions may be designed to improve the persistence of populations.

The effect of femoral component rotation on the five-year outcome of cemented mobile bearing total knee arthroplasty.

PURPOSE: Performing total knee replacement, accurate alignment and neutral rotation of the femoral component are widely believed to be crucial for the ultimate success. Contrary to absolute bone referenced alignment, using a ligament balancing technique does not automatically rotate the femoral component parallel to the transepicondylar axis. In this context we established the hypothesis that rotational alignment of the femoral component parallel to the transepicondylar axis (0° ± 3°) results in better outcome than alignment outside of this range. METHODS: We analysed 204 primary cemented mobile bearing total knee replacements five years postoperatively. Femoral component rotation was measured on axial radiographs using the condylar twist angle (CTA). Knee society score, range of motion as well as subjective rating documented outcome. RESULTS: In 96 knees the femoral component rotation was within the range 0 ± 3° (neutral rotation group), and in 108 knees the five-year postoperative rotational alignment of the femoral component was outside of this range (outlier group). Postoperative CTA showed a mean of 2.8° (±3.4°) internal rotation (IR) with a range between 6° external rotation (ER) and 15° IR (CI 95). No difference with regard to subjective and objective outcome could be detected. CONCLUSION: The present work shows that there is a large given natural variability in optimal rotational orientation, in this study between 6° ER and 15° IR, with numerous co-factors determining correct positioning of the femoral component. Further studies substantiating pre- and postoperative determinants are required to complete the understanding of resulting biomechanics in primary TKA.

Free Flows, Limited Diversification: Explaining the Fall and Rise of Stock Market Correlations, 1890-2001

Using a new dataset on capital account openness, we investigate why equity return correlations changed over the last century. Based on a new, long-run dataset on capital account regulations in a group of 16 countries over the period 1890-2001, we show that correlations increase as financial markets are liberalized. These findings are robust to controlling for both the Forbes-Rigobon bias and global averages in equity return correlations. We test the robustness of our conclusions, and show that greater synchronization of fundamentals is not the main cause of increasing correlations. These results imply that the home bias puzzle may be smaller than traditionally claimed.

An intramedullary alignment guide lodging within the femoral canal during total knee arthroplasty: a case report.

The usual complications of total knee arthroplasty include thrombo-embolism, infection, and loosening. We report an unusual and potentially serious complication of an intramedullary guide lodging within the femoral canal during the procedure. Considering the risk of fracture and additional exposure, the guide was not removed and was cut in situ. The rest of the operation was completed successfully and the patient made an uneventfully recovery.

Body surface area and body weight predict total liver volume in Western adults.

Computed tomography (CT) is used increasingly to measure liver volume in patients undergoing evaluation for transplantation or resection. This study is designed to determine a formula predicting total liver volume (TLV) based on body surface area (BSA) or body weight in Western adults. TLV was measured in 292 patients from four Western centers. Liver volumes were calculated from helical computed tomographic scans obtained for conditions unrelated to the hepatobiliary system. BSA was calculated based on height and weight. Each center used a different established method of three-dimensional volume reconstruction. Using regression analysis, measurements were compared, and formulas correlating BSA or body weight to TLV were established. A linear regression formula to estimate TLV based on BSA was obtained: TLV = -794.41 + 1,267.28 x BSA (square meters; r(2) = 0.46; P &lt;.0001). A formula based on patient weight also was derived: TLV = 191.80 + 18.51 x weight (kilograms; r(2) = 0.49; P &lt;.0001). The newly derived TLV formula based on BSA was compared with previously reported formulas. The application of a formula obtained from healthy Japanese individuals underestimated TLV. Two formulas derived from autopsy data for Western populations were similar to the newly derived BSA formula, with a slight overestimation of TLV. In conclusion, hepatic three-dimensional volume reconstruction based on helical CT predicts TLV based on BSA or body weight. The new formulas derived from this correlation should contribute to the estimation of TLV before liver transplantation or major hepatic resection.