Some Remarks on the Approximation of Transitional Density in Stochastic Differential Equations

Aijt-Sahalia (2002) introduced a method to estimate transitional probability densities of di®usion processes by means of Hermite expansions with coe±cients determined by means of Taylor series. This note describes a numerical procedure to ¯nd these coe±cients based on the calculation of moments. One advantage of this procedure is that it can be used e®ectively when the mathematical operations required to ¯nd closed-form expressions for these coe±cients are otherwise infeasible.

A numerical method to quantify the axial shortening of vertical elements in concrete buildings

Differential axial shortening, distortion and deformation in high rise buildings is a serious concern. They are caused by three time dependent modes of volume change; “shrinkage”, “creep” and “elastic shortening” that takes place in every concrete element during and after construction. Vertical concrete components in a high rise building are sized and designed based on their strength demand to carry gravity and lateral loads. Therefore, columns and walls are sized, shaped and reinforced differently with varying concrete grades and volume to surface area ratios. These structural components may be subjected to the detrimental effects of differential axial shortening that escalates with increasing the height of buildings. This can have an adverse impact on other structural and non-structural elements. Limited procedures are available to quantify axial shortening, and the results obtained from them differ because each procedure is based on various assumptions and limited to few parameters. All these prompt to a need to develop an accurate numerical procedure to quantify the axial shortening of concrete buildings taking into account the important time varying functions of (i) construction sequence (ii) Young’s Modulus and (iii) creep and shrinkage models associated with reinforced concrete. General assumptions are refined to minimize variability of creep and shrinkage parameters to improve accuracy of the results. Finite element techniques are used in the procedure that employs time history analysis along with compression only elements to simulate staged construction behaviour. This paper presents such a procedure and illustrates it through an example. Keywords: Differential Axial Shortening, Concrete Buildings, Creep and Shrinkage, Construction Sequence, Finite Element Method.

Multicomponent kinetic spectrophotometric determination of pefloxacin and norfloxacin in pharmaceutical preparations and human plasma samples with the aid of chemometrics

A spectrophotometric method for the simultaneous determination of the important pharmaceuticals, pefloxacin and its structurally similar metabolite, norfloxacin, is described for the first time. The analysis is based on the monitoring of a kinetic spectrophotometric reaction of the two analytes with potassium permanganate as the oxidant. The measurement of the reaction process followed the absorbance decrease of potassium permanganate at 526 nm, and the accompanying increase of the product, potassium manganate, at 608 nm. It was essential to use multivariate calibrations to overcome severe spectral overlaps and similarities in reaction kinetics. Calibration curves for the individual analytes showed linear relationships over the concentration ranges of 1.0–11.5 mg L−1 at 526 and 608 nm for pefloxacin, and 0.15–1.8 mg L−1 at 526 and 608 nm for norfloxacin. Various multivariate calibration models were applied, at the two analytical wavelengths, for the simultaneous prediction of the two analytes including classical least squares (CLS), principal component regression (PCR), partial least squares (PLS), radial basis function-artificial neural network (RBF-ANN) and principal component-radial basis function-artificial neural network (PC-RBF-ANN). PLS and PC-RBF-ANN calibrations with the data collected at 526 nm, were the preferred methods—%RPET not, vert, similar 5, and LODs for pefloxacin and norfloxacin of 0.36 and 0.06 mg L−1, respectively. Then, the proposed method was applied successfully for the simultaneous determination of pefloxacin and norfloxacin present in pharmaceutical and human plasma samples. The results compared well with those from the alternative analysis by HPLC.

Ultrasonic measurement of fine head movements in a standard ophthalmic headrest

We aimed to investigate the naturally occurring horizontal plane movements of a head stabilized in a standard ophthalmic headrest and to analyze their magnitude, velocity, spectral characteristics, and correlation to the cardio pulmonary system. Two custom-made air-coupled highly accurate (±2 μm)ultrasound transducers were used to measure the displacements of the head in different horizontal directions with a sampling frequency of 100 Hz. Synchronously to the head movements, an electrocardiogram (ECG) signal was recorded. Three healthy subjects participated in the study. Frequency analysis of the recorded head movements and their velocities was carried out, and functions of coherence between the two displacements and the ECG signal were calculated. Frequency of respiration and the heartbeat were clearly visible in all recorded head movements. The amplitude of head displacements was typically in the range of ±100 μm. The first harmonic of the heartbeat (in the range of 2–3 Hz), rather than its principal frequency, was found to be the dominant frequency of both head movements and their velocities. Coherence analysis showed high interdependence between the considered signals for frequencies of up to 20 Hz. These findings may contribute to the design of better ophthalmic headrests and should help other studies in the decision making of whether to use a heavy headrest or a bite bar.

Bootstrap approaches for estimation and confidence intervals of long term memory processes

In this work, we investigate an alternative bootstrap approach based on a result of Ramsey [F.L. Ramsey, Characterization of the partial autocorrelation function, Ann. Statist. 2 (1974), pp. 1296-1301] and on the Durbin-Levinson algorithm to obtain a surrogate series from linear Gaussian processes with long range dependence. We compare this bootstrap method with other existing procedures in a wide Monte Carlo experiment by estimating, parametrically and semi-parametrically, the memory parameter d. We consider Gaussian and non-Gaussian processes to prove the robustness of the method to deviations from normality. The approach is also useful to estimate confidence intervals for the memory parameter d by improving the coverage level of the interval.

Modeling multivariate autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity with the double smooth transition conditional correlation GARCH Model

In this paper, we propose a multivariate GARCH model with a time-varying conditional correlation structure. The new double smooth transition conditional correlation (DSTCC) GARCH model extends the smooth transition conditional correlation (STCC) GARCH model of Silvennoinen and Teräsvirta (2005) by including another variable according to which the correlations change smoothly between states of constant correlations. A Lagrange multiplier test is derived to test the constancy of correlations against the DSTCC-GARCH model, and another one to test for another transition in the STCC-GARCH framework. In addition, other specification tests, with the aim of aiding the model building procedure, are considered. Analytical expressions for the test statistics and the required derivatives are provided. Applying the model to the stock and bond futures data, we discover that the correlation pattern between them has dramatically changed around the turn of the century. The model is also applied to a selection of world stock indices, and we find evidence for an increasing degree of integration in the capital markets.

Development of rapid and highly resolving combinatorial genotyping schemes for Campylobacter jejuni and Campylobacter coli

Campylobacter jejuni followed by Campylobacter coli contribute substantially to the economic and public health burden attributed to food-borne infections in Australia. Genotypic characterisation of isolates has provided new insights into the epidemiology and pathogenesis of C. jejuni and C. coli. However, currently available methods are not conducive to large scale epidemiological investigations that are necessary to elucidate the global epidemiology of these common food-borne pathogens. This research aims to develop high resolution C. jejuni and C. coli genotyping schemes that are convenient for high throughput applications. Real-time PCR and High Resolution Melt (HRM) analysis are fundamental to the genotyping schemes developed in this study and enable rapid, cost effective, interrogation of a range of different polymorphic sites within the Campylobacter genome. While the sources and routes of transmission of campylobacters are unclear, handling and consumption of poultry meat is frequently associated with human campylobacteriosis in Australia. Therefore, chicken derived C. jejuni and C. coli isolates were used to develop and verify the methods described in this study. The first aim of this study describes the application of MLST-SNP (Multi Locus Sequence Typing Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms) + binary typing to 87 chicken C. jejuni isolates using real-time PCR analysis. These typing schemes were developed previously by our research group using isolates from campylobacteriosis patients. This present study showed that SNP + binary typing alone or in combination are effective at detecting epidemiological linkage between chicken derived Campylobacter isolates and enable data comparisons with other MLST based investigations. SNP + binary types obtained from chicken isolates in this study were compared with a previously SNP + binary and MLST typed set of human isolates. Common genotypes between the two collections of isolates were identified and ST-524 represented a clone that could be worth monitoring in the chicken meat industry. In contrast, ST-48, mainly associated with bovine hosts, was abundant in the human isolates. This genotype was, however, absent in the chicken isolates, indicating the role of non-poultry sources in causing human Campylobacter infections. This demonstrates the potential application of SNP + binary typing for epidemiological investigations and source tracing. While MLST SNPs and binary genes comprise the more stable backbone of the Campylobacter genome and are indicative of long term epidemiological linkage of the isolates, the development of a High Resolution Melt (HRM) based curve analysis method to interrogate the hypervariable Campylobacter flagellin encoding gene (flaA) is described in Aim 2 of this study. The flaA gene product appears to be an important pathogenicity determinant of campylobacters and is therefore a popular target for genotyping, especially for short term epidemiological studies such as outbreak investigations. HRM curve analysis based flaA interrogation is a single-step closed-tube method that provides portable data that can be easily shared and accessed. Critical to the development of flaA HRM was the use of flaA specific primers that did not amplify the flaB gene. HRM curve analysis flaA interrogation was successful at discriminating the 47 sequence variants identified within the 87 C. jejuni and 15 C. coli isolates and correlated to the epidemiological background of the isolates. In the combinatorial format, the resolving power of flaA was additive to that of SNP + binary typing and CRISPR (Clustered regularly spaced short Palindromic repeats) HRM and fits the PHRANA (Progressive hierarchical resolving assays using nucleic acids) approach for genotyping. The use of statistical methods to analyse the HRM data enhanced sophistication of the method. Therefore, flaA HRM is a rapid and cost effective alternative to gel- or sequence-based flaA typing schemes. Aim 3 of this study describes the development of a novel bioinformatics driven method to interrogate Campylobacter MLST gene fragments using HRM, and is called ‘SNP Nucleated Minim MLST’ or ‘Minim typing’. The method involves HRM interrogation of MLST fragments that encompass highly informative “Nucleating SNPS” to ensure high resolution. Selection of fragments potentially suited to HRM analysis was conducted in silico using i) “Minimum SNPs” and ii) the new ’HRMtype’ software packages. Species specific sets of six “Nucleating SNPs” and six HRM fragments were identified for both C. jejuni and C. coli to ensure high typeability and resolution relevant to the MLST database. ‘Minim typing’ was tested empirically by typing 15 C. jejuni and five C. coli isolates. The association of clonal complexes (CC) to each isolate by ‘Minim typing’ and SNP + binary typing were used to compare the two MLST interrogation schemes. The CCs linked with each C. jejuni isolate were consistent for both methods. Thus, ‘Minim typing’ is an efficient and cost effective method to interrogate MLST genes. However, it is not expected to be independent, or meet the resolution of, sequence based MLST gene interrogation. ‘Minim typing’ in combination with flaA HRM is envisaged to comprise a highly resolving combinatorial typing scheme developed around the HRM platform and is amenable to automation and multiplexing. The genotyping techniques described in this thesis involve the combinatorial interrogation of differentially evolving genetic markers on the unified real-time PCR and HRM platform. They provide high resolution and are simple, cost effective and ideally suited to rapid and high throughput genotyping for these common food-borne pathogens.

A numerical method to quantify differential axial shortening in concrete buildings

Differential distortion comprising axial shortening and consequent rotation in concrete buildings is caused by the time dependent effects of “shrinkage”, “creep” and “elastic” deformation. Reinforcement content, variable concrete modulus, volume to surface area ratio of elements and environmental conditions influence these distortions and their detrimental effects escalate with increasing height and geometric complexity of structure and non vertical load paths. Differential distortion has a significant impact on building envelopes, building services, secondary systems and the life time serviceability and performance of a building. Existing methods for quantifying these effects are unable to capture the complexity of such time dependent effects. This paper develops a numerical procedure that can accurately quantify the differential axial shortening that contributes significantly to total distortion in concrete buildings by taking into consideration (i) construction sequence and (ii) time varying values of Young’s Modulus of reinforced concrete and creep and shrinkage. Finite element techniques are used with time history analysis to simulate the response to staged construction. This procedure is discussed herein and illustrated through an example.

On democracy

If one clear argument emerged from my doctoral thesis in political science, it is that there is no agreement as to what democracy is. There are over 40 different varieties of democracy ranging from those in the mainstream with subtle or minute differences to those playing by themselves in the corner. And many of these various types of democracy are very well argued, empirically supported, and highly relevant to certain polities. The irony is that the thing which all of these democratic varieties or the ‘basic democracy’ that all other forms of democracy stem from, is elusive. There is no international agreement in the literature or in political practice as to what ‘basic democracy’ is and that is problematic as many of us use the word ‘democracy’ every day and it is a concept of tremendous importance internationally. I am still uncertain as to why this problem has not been resolved before by far greater minds than my own, and it may have something to do with the recent growth in democratic theory this past decade and the innovative areas of thought my thesis required, but I think I’ve got the answer. By listing each type of democracy and filling the column next to this list with the literature associated with these various styles of democracy, I amassed a large and comprehensive body of textual data. My research intended to find out what these various styles of democracy had in common and to create a taxonomy (like the ‘tree of life’ in biology) of democracy to attempt at showing how various styles of democracy have ‘evolved’ over the past 5000 years.ii I then ran a word frequency analysis program or a piece of software that counts the 100 most commonly used words in the texts. This is where my logic came in as I had to make sense of these words. How did they answer what the most fundamental commonalities are between 40 different styles of democracy? I used a grounded theory analysis which required that I argue my way through these words to form a ‘theory’ or plausible explanation as to why these particular words and not others are the important ones for answering the question. It came down to the argument that all 40 styles of democracy analysed have the following in common 1) A concept of a citizenry. 2) A concept of sovereignty. 3) A concept of equality. 4) A concept of law. 5) A concept of communication. 6) And a concept of selecting officials. Thus, democracy is a defined citizenry with its own concept of sovereignty which it exercises through the institutions which support the citizenry’s understandings of equality, law, communication, and the selection of officials. Once any of these 6 concepts are defined in a particular way it creates a style of democracy. From this, we can also see that there can be more than one style of democracy active in a particular government as a citizenry is composed of many different aggregates with their own understandings of the six concepts.