State-Society Relationships, Social Trust and the Development of Labour Market Policies in Italy and Sweden

The first decade of the twenty-first century may be remembered for the rebirth of consensus on labour market policy. After three decades of bitter political and ideological controversy between a neo-liberal and a traditional social democratic approach, a new model, often labelled flexicurity, has emerged. This model is promoted by numerous political organisations since it promises to put an end to the old trade-off between equality and efficiency. Several countries are embracing the flexicurity model as a blueprint for labour market reform, but others, mostly belonging to the 'Mediterranean Rim', are clearly lagging behind. Why is it so difficult for these countries to implement the flexicurity model? This paper argues that the application of a flexicurity strategy in these countries is complicated by the lack of social trust between social partners and the state as well as political economy traditions that highlight the role of labour market regulation as a source of social protection.

The Effect of Four-Lane to Three-Lane Conversion on the Number of Crashes and Crash Rates in Iowa Roads, June 2005

We analyze crash data collected by the Iowa Department of Transportation using Bayesian methods. The data set includes monthly crash numbers, estimated monthly traffic volumes, site length and other information collected at 30 paired sites in Iowa over more than 20 years during which an intervention experiment was set up. The intervention consisted in transforming 15 undivided road segments from four-lane to three lanes, while an additional 15 segments, thought to be comparable in terms of traffic safety-related characteristics were not converted. The main objective of this work is to find out whether the intervention reduces the number of crashes and the crash rates at the treated sites. We fitted a hierarchical Poisson regression model with a change-point to the number of monthly crashes per mile at each of the sites. Explanatory variables in the model included estimated monthly traffic volume, time, an indicator for intervention reflecting whether the site was a “treatment” or a “control” site, and various interactions. We accounted for seasonal effects in the number of crashes at a site by including smooth trigonometric functions with three different periods to reflect the four seasons of the year. A change-point at the month and year in which the intervention was completed for treated sites was also included. The number of crashes at a site can be thought to follow a Poisson distribution. To estimate the association between crashes and the explanatory variables, we used a log link function and added a random effect to account for overdispersion and for autocorrelation among observations obtained at the same site. We used proper but non-informative priors for all parameters in the model, and carried out all calculations using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods implemented in WinBUGS. We evaluated the effect of the four to three-lane conversion by comparing the expected number of crashes per year per mile during the years preceding the conversion and following the conversion for treatment and control sites. We estimated this difference using the observed traffic volumes at each site and also on a per 100,000,000 vehicles. We also conducted a prospective analysis to forecast the expected number of crashes per mile at each site in the study one year, three years and five years following the four to three-lane conversion. Posterior predictive distributions of the number of crashes, the crash rate and the percent reduction in crashes per mile were obtained for each site for the months of January and June one, three and five years after completion of the intervention. The model appears to fit the data well. We found that in most sites, the intervention was effective and reduced the number of crashes. Overall, and for the observed traffic volumes, the reduction in the expected number of crashes per year and mile at converted sites was 32.3% (31.4% to 33.5% with 95% probability) while at the control sites, the reduction was estimated to be 7.1% (5.7% to 8.2% with 95% probability). When the reduction in the expected number of crashes per year, mile and 100,000,000 AADT was computed, the estimates were 44.3% (43.9% to 44.6%) and 25.5% (24.6% to 26.0%) for converted and control sites, respectively. In both cases, the difference in the percent reduction in the expected number of crashes during the years following the conversion was significantly larger at converted sites than at control sites, even though the number of crashes appears to decline over time at all sites. Results indicate that the reduction in the expected number of sites per mile has a steeper negative slope at converted than at control sites. Consistent with this, the forecasted reduction in the number of crashes per year and mile during the years after completion of the conversion at converted sites is more pronounced than at control sites. Seasonal effects on the number of crashes have been well-documented. In this dataset, we found that, as expected, the expected number of monthly crashes per mile tends to be higher during winter months than during the rest of the year. Perhaps more interestingly, we found that there is an interaction between the four to three-lane conversion and season; the reduction in the number of crashes appears to be more pronounced during months, when the weather is nice than during other times of the year, even though a reduction was estimated for the entire year. Thus, it appears that the four to three-lane conversion, while effective year-round, is particularly effective in reducing the expected number of crashes in nice weather.

Hybrid consumption paths in the attribute space: A model and application with scanner data

This paper presents and estimates a dynamic choice model in the attribute space considering rational consumers. In light of the evidence of several state-dependence patterns, the standard attribute-based model is extended by considering a general utility function where pure inertia and pure variety-seeking behaviors can be explained in the model as particular linear cases. The dynamics of the model are fully characterized by standard dynamic programming techniques. The model presents a stationary consumption pattern that can be inertial, where the consumer only buys one product, or a variety-seeking one, where the consumer shifts among varied products.We run some simulations to analyze the consumption paths out of the steady state. Underthe hybrid utility assumption, the consumer behaves inertially among the unfamiliar brandsfor several periods, eventually switching to a variety-seeking behavior when the stationary levels are approached. An empirical analysis is run using scanner databases for three different product categories: fabric softener, saltine cracker, and catsup. Non-linear specifications provide the best fit of the data, as hybrid functional forms are found in all the product categories for most attributes and segments. These results reveal the statistical superiority of the non-linear structure and confirm the gradual trend to seek variety as the level of familiarity with the purchased items increases.

La chaîne des secours: le modèle vaudois [An efficient example of a Swiss pre-hospital chain of survival: the state of Vaud model].

The state of Vaud model of the pre-hospital chain of survival is an example of an efficient way to deal with pre-hospital emergencies. It revolves around a centrally located dispatch center managing emergencies according to specific key words, allowing dispatchers to send out resources among which we find general practitioners, ambulances, physician staffed fast response cars or physician staffed helicopters and specific equipment. The Vaud pre-hospital chain of survival has been tailored according to geographical, demographical and political necessities. It undergoes constant reassessment and needs continuous adaptations to the ever changing demographics and epidemiology of pre-hospital medicine.

Diversity of social wasps (Hymenoptera, Vespidae, Polistinae) in three fragments of semideciduous seasonal forest in the northwest of São Paulo State, Brazil

Human exploitation of the forest in the northwest of São Paulo State has generated enormous fragmentation of that forest. Such disturbance has reduced the populations of insects in general. This work was a survey of social wasps (Hymenoptera, Vespidae; Polistinae) in three areas in different stages of regeneration: Paulo de Faria - SP (435 ha), Pindorama - SP (128 ha) and Neves Paulista - SP (1 ha). These three areas were chosen for comparative purposes. To capture the wasps, it was used: active collecting with attractant liquid (solution of water, salt and sugar) with the aid of a dorsal spray bag. During the period from July to December 2006, 414 social wasps were collected in Paulo de Faria, constituting seven species belonging to four genera; 111 social wasps were collected in Pindorama, constituting six species belonging to four genera, and 129 social wasps were collected in Neves Paulista constituting 12 species belonging to seven genera. In order to compare these three areas ecological indexes were calculated. Neves Paulista had the greatest diversity, and Paulo de Faria presented greater abundance. These factors were probably caused by neighboring areas and ecological corridors, which were limited in Paulo de Faria and Pindorama.

Veliidae (Insecta, Heteroptera, Gerromorpha) from southeastern Brazil: three new species from Rio de Janeiro State, a new species group for Neotropical Rhagovelia Mayr, and notes on distribution and synonymy

Microvelia nelsoni sp. nov., M. takiyae sp. nov., and Rhagovelia mangaratiba sp. nov. are described. Rhagovelia scitula and R. whitei are transferred from the robusta group to the new whitei group. Rhagovelia denticulata is synonymized under R. scitula. Microvelia longipes, Oiovelia brasiliensis, Rhagovelia sooretama, R. trianguloides, R. vaniniae, and Stridulivelia quadrispinosa are recorded for the first time from Rio de Janeiro State. Additional new municipality records in Rio de Janeiro State are presented for Microvelia braziliensis, M. ioana, M. mimula, M. pulchella, Paravelia basalis, P. itatiayana, Rhagovelia accedens, R. agra, R. aiuruoca, R. elegans, R. hambletoni, R. henryi, R. itatiaiana, R. lucida, R. macta, R. modesta, R. novana, R. scitula, R. tenuipes, R. tijuca, R. triangula, and R. zela. Corrections are presented for the previously published distributions of Rhagovelia aiuruoca, R. lucida, R. macta, and R. triangula.

The three horsemen of riches: Plague, war and urbanization in early modern Europe

How did Europe escape the "Iron Law of Wages?" We construct a simple Malthusian model withtwo sectors and multiple steady states, and use it to explain why European per capita incomes andurbanization rates increased during the period 1350-1700. Productivity growth can only explain a smallfraction of the rise in output per capita. Population dynamics changes of the birth and death schedules were far more important determinants of steady states. We show how a major shock to population cantrigger a transition to a new steady state with higher per-capita income. The Black Death was such ashock, raising wages substantially. Because of Engel's Law, demand for urban products increased, andurban centers grew in size. European cities were unhealthy, and rising urbanization pushed up aggregatedeath rates. This effect was reinforced by diseases spread through war, financed by higher tax revenues.In addition, rising trade also spread diseases. In this way higher wages themselves reduced populationpressure. We show in a calibration exercise that our model can account for the sustained rise in Europeanurbanization as well as permanently higher per capita incomes in 1700, without technological change.Wars contributed importantly to the "Rise of Europe", even if they had negative short-run effects. We thustrace Europe s precocious rise to economic riches to interactions of the plague shock with the belligerentpolitical environment and the nature of cities.

Finite-size scaling analysis of the avalanches in the three-dimensional Gaussian random-field Ising model with metastable dynamics

A numerical study is presented of the third-dimensional Gaussian random-field Ising model at T=0 driven by an external field. Standard synchronous relaxation dynamics is employed to obtain the magnetization versus field hysteresis loops. The focus is on the analysis of the number and size distribution of the magnetization avalanches. They are classified as being nonspanning, one-dimensional-spanning, two-dimensional-spanning, or three-dimensional-spanning depending on whether or not they span the whole lattice in different space directions. Moreover, finite-size scaling analysis enables identification of two different types of nonspanning avalanches (critical and noncritical) and two different types of three-dimensional-spanning avalanches (critical and subcritical), whose numbers increase with L as a power law with different exponents. We conclude by giving a scenario for avalanche behavior in the thermodynamic limit.

Spanning avalanches in the three-dimensional Gaussian random-field Ising model with metastable dynamics: Field dependence and geometrical properties

Spanning avalanches in the 3D Gaussian Random Field Ising Model (3D-GRFIM) with metastable dynamics at T=0 have been studied. Statistical analysis of the field values for which avalanches occur has enabled a Finite-Size Scaling (FSS) study of the avalanche density to be performed. Furthermore, a direct measurement of the geometrical properties of the avalanches has confirmed an earlier hypothesis that several types of spanning avalanches with two different fractal dimensions coexist at the critical point. We finally compare the phase diagram of the 3D-GRFIM with metastable dynamics with the same model in equilibrium at T=0.

Diluted three-dimensional random field Ising model at zero temperature with metastable dynamics.

The influence of vacancy concentration on the behavior of the three-dimensional random field Ising model with metastable dynamics is studied. We have focused our analysis on the number of spanning avalanches which allows us a clear determination of the critical line where the hysteresis loops change from continuous to discontinuous. By a detailed finite-size scaling analysis we determine the phase diagram and numerically estimate the critical exponents along the whole critical line. Finally, we discuss the origin of the curvature of the critical line at high vacancy concentration.

State-of-the-art of 3D cultures (organs-on-a-chip) in safety testing and pathophysiology.

Integrated approaches using different in vitro methods in combination with bioinformatics can (i) increase the success rate and speed of drug development; (ii) improve the accuracy of toxicological risk assessment; and (iii) increase our understanding of disease. Three-dimensional (3D) cell culture models are important building blocks of this strategy which has emerged during the last years. The majority of these models are organotypic, i.e., they aim to reproduce major functions of an organ or organ system. This implies in many cases that more than one cell type forms the 3D structure, and often matrix elements play an important role. This review summarizes the state of the art concerning commonalities of the different models. For instance, the theory of mass transport/metabolite exchange in 3D systems and the special analytical requirements for test endpoints in organotypic cultures are discussed in detail. In the next part, 3D model systems for selected organs--liver, lung, skin, brain--are presented and characterized in dedicated chapters. Also, 3D approaches to the modeling of tumors are presented and discussed. All chapters give a historical background, illustrate the large variety of approaches, and highlight up- and downsides as well as specific requirements. Moreover, they refer to the application in disease modeling, drug discovery and safety assessment. Finally, consensus recommendations indicate a roadmap for the successful implementation of 3D models in routine screening. It is expected that the use of such models will accelerate progress by reducing error rates and wrong predictions from compound testing.

Three essays in financial economics: asset pricing, optimal portfolio selection and financial integration

Executive Summary The unifying theme of this thesis is the pursuit of a satisfactory ways to quantify the riskureward trade-off in financial economics. First in the context of a general asset pricing model, then across models and finally across country borders. The guiding principle in that pursuit was to seek innovative solutions by combining ideas from different fields in economics and broad scientific research. For example, in the first part of this thesis we sought a fruitful application of strong existence results in utility theory to topics in asset pricing. In the second part we implement an idea from the field of fuzzy set theory to the optimal portfolio selection problem, while the third part of this thesis is to the best of our knowledge, the first empirical application of some general results in asset pricing in incomplete markets to the important topic of measurement of financial integration. While the first two parts of this thesis effectively combine well-known ways to quantify the risk-reward trade-offs the third one can be viewed as an empirical verification of the usefulness of the so-called "good deal bounds" theory in designing risk-sensitive pricing bounds. Chapter 1 develops a discrete-time asset pricing model, based on a novel ordinally equivalent representation of recursive utility. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to use a member of a novel class of recursive utility generators to construct a representative agent model to address some long-lasting issues in asset pricing. Applying strong representation results allows us to show that the model features countercyclical risk premia, for both consumption and financial risk, together with low and procyclical risk free rate. As the recursive utility used nests as a special case the well-known time-state separable utility, all results nest the corresponding ones from the standard model and thus shed light on its well-known shortcomings. The empirical investigation to support these theoretical results, however, showed that as long as one resorts to econometric methods based on approximating conditional moments with unconditional ones, it is not possible to distinguish the model we propose from the standard one. Chapter 2 is a join work with Sergei Sontchik. There we provide theoretical and empirical motivation for aggregation of performance measures. The main idea is that as it makes sense to apply several performance measures ex-post, it also makes sense to base optimal portfolio selection on ex-ante maximization of as many possible performance measures as desired. We thus offer a concrete algorithm for optimal portfolio selection via ex-ante optimization over different horizons of several risk-return trade-offs simultaneously. An empirical application of that algorithm, using seven popular performance measures, suggests that realized returns feature better distributional characteristics relative to those of realized returns from portfolio strategies optimal with respect to single performance measures. When comparing the distributions of realized returns we used two partial risk-reward orderings first and second order stochastic dominance. We first used the Kolmogorov Smirnov test to determine if the two distributions are indeed different, which combined with a visual inspection allowed us to demonstrate that the way we propose to aggregate performance measures leads to portfolio realized returns that first order stochastically dominate the ones that result from optimization only with respect to, for example, Treynor ratio and Jensen's alpha. We checked for second order stochastic dominance via point wise comparison of the so-called absolute Lorenz curve, or the sequence of expected shortfalls for a range of quantiles. As soon as the plot of the absolute Lorenz curve for the aggregated performance measures was above the one corresponding to each individual measure, we were tempted to conclude that the algorithm we propose leads to portfolio returns distribution that second order stochastically dominates virtually all performance measures considered. Chapter 3 proposes a measure of financial integration, based on recent advances in asset pricing in incomplete markets. Given a base market (a set of traded assets) and an index of another market, we propose to measure financial integration through time by the size of the spread between the pricing bounds of the market index, relative to the base market. The bigger the spread around country index A, viewed from market B, the less integrated markets A and B are. We investigate the presence of structural breaks in the size of the spread for EMU member country indices before and after the introduction of the Euro. We find evidence that both the level and the volatility of our financial integration measure increased after the introduction of the Euro. That counterintuitive result suggests the presence of an inherent weakness in the attempt to measure financial integration independently of economic fundamentals. Nevertheless, the results about the bounds on the risk free rate appear plausible from the view point of existing economic theory about the impact of integration on interest rates.

Studying Avalanches in the ground-state of the two-dimensional random field Ising model driven by an external field

We study the exact ground state of the two-dimensional random-field Ising model as a function of both the external applied field B and the standard deviation ¿ of the Gaussian random-field distribution. The equilibrium evolution of the magnetization consists in a sequence of discrete jumps. These are very similar to the avalanche behavior found in the out-of-equilibrium version of the same model with local relaxation dynamics. We compare the statistical distributions of magnetization jumps and find that both exhibit power-law behavior for the same value of ¿. The corresponding exponents are compared.

Exact lower bounds to the ground-state energy of spin systems: The two-dimensional S=1/2 antiferromagnetic Heisenberg model

We present a very simple but fairly unknown method to obtain exact lower bounds to the ground-state energy of any Hamiltonian that can be partitioned into a sum of sub-Hamiltonians. The technique is applied, in particular, to the two-dimensional spin-1/2 antiferromagnetic Heisenberg model. Reasonably good results are easily obtained and the extension of the method to other systems is straightforward.

APPRAISAL OF THE SNAP MODEL FOR PREDICTING NITROGEN MINERALIZATION IN TROPICAL SOILS UNDER EUCALYPTUS

The Soil Nitrogen Availability Predictor (SNAP) model predicts daily and annual rates of net N mineralization (NNM) based on daily weather measurements, daily predictions of soil water and soil temperature, and on temperature and moisture modifiers obtained during aerobic incubation (basal rate). The model was based on in situ measurements of NNM in Australian soils under temperate climate. The purpose of this study was to assess this model for use in tropical soils under eucalyptus plantations in São Paulo State, Brazil. Based on field incubations for one month in three, NNM rates were measured at 11 sites (0-20 cm layer) for 21 months. The basal rate was determined in in situ incubations during moist and warm periods (January to March). Annual rates of 150-350 kg ha-1 yr-1 NNM predicted by the SNAP model were reasonably accurate (R2 = 0.84). In other periods, at lower moisture and temperature, NNM rates were overestimated. Therefore, if used carefully, the model can provide adequate predictions of annual NNM and may be useful in practical applications. For NNM predictions for shorter periods than a year or under suboptimal incubation conditions, the temperature and moisture modifiers need to be recalibrated for tropical conditions.