Three essays in international finance

Executive Summary The first essay of this dissertation investigates whether greater exchange rate uncertainty (i.e., variation over time in the exchange rate) fosters or depresses the foreign investment of multinational firms. In addition to the direct capital financing it supplies, foreign investment can be a source of valuable technology and know-how, which can have substantial positive effects on a host country's economic growth. Thus, it is critically important for policy makers and central bankers, among others, to understand how multinationals base their investment decisions on the characteristics of foreign exchange markets. In this essay, I first develop a theoretical framework to improve our knowledge regarding how the aggregate level of foreign investment responds to exchange rate uncertainty when an economy consists of many firms, each of which is making decisions. The analysis predicts a U-shaped effect of exchange rate uncertainty on the total level of foreign investment of the economy. That is, the effect is negative for low levels of uncertainty and positive for higher levels of uncertainty. This pattern emerges because the relationship between exchange rate volatility and 'the probability of investment is negative for firms with low productivity at home (i.e., firms that find it profitable to invest abroad) and the relationship is positive for firms with high productivity at home (i.e., firms that prefer exporting their product). This finding stands in sharp contrast to predictions in the existing literature that consider a single firm's decision to invest in a unique project. The main contribution of this research is to show that the aggregation over many firms produces a U-shaped pattern between exchange rate uncertainty and the probability of investment. Using data from industrialized countries for the period of 1982-2002, this essay offers a comprehensive empirical analysis that provides evidence in support of the theoretical prediction. In the second essay, I aim to explain the time variation in sovereign credit risk, which captures the risk that a government may be unable to repay its debt. The importance of correctly evaluating such a risk is illustrated by the central role of sovereign debt in previous international lending crises. In addition, sovereign debt is the largest asset class in emerging markets. In this essay, I provide a pricing formula for the evaluation of sovereign credit risk in which the decision to default on sovereign debt is made by the government. The pricing formula explains the variation across time in daily credit spreads - a widely used measure of credit risk - to a degree not offered by existing theoretical and empirical models. I use information on a country's stock market to compute the prevailing sovereign credit spread in that country. The pricing formula explains a substantial fraction of the time variation in daily credit spread changes for Brazil, Mexico, Peru, and Russia for the 1998-2008 period, particularly during the recent subprime crisis. I also show that when a government incentive to default is allowed to depend on current economic conditions, one can best explain the level of credit spreads, especially during the recent period of financial distress. In the third essay, I show that the risk of sovereign default abroad can produce adverse consequences for the U.S. equity market through a decrease in returns and an increase in volatility. The risk of sovereign default, which is no longer limited to emerging economies, has recently become a major concern for financial markets. While sovereign debt plays an increasing role in today's financial environment, the effects of sovereign credit risk on the U.S. financial markets have been largely ignored in the literature. In this essay, I develop a theoretical framework that explores how the risk of sovereign default abroad helps explain the level and the volatility of U.S. equity returns. The intuition for this effect is that negative economic shocks deteriorate the fiscal situation of foreign governments, thereby increasing the risk of a sovereign default that would trigger a local contraction in economic growth. The increased risk of an economic slowdown abroad amplifies the direct effect of these shocks on the level and the volatility of equity returns in the U.S. through two channels. The first channel involves a decrease in the future earnings of U.S. exporters resulting from unfavorable adjustments to the exchange rate. The second channel involves investors' incentives to rebalance their portfolios toward safer assets, which depresses U.S. equity prices. An empirical estimation of the model with monthly data for the 1994-2008 period provides evidence that the risk of sovereign default abroad generates a strong leverage effect during economic downturns, which helps to substantially explain the level and the volatility of U.S. equity returns.

Siphonaptera parasites of wild rodents and marsupials trapped in three mountain ranges of the Atlantic Forest in Southeastern Brazil

A study of the associations between small mammals and fleas was undertaken in three areas of the Atlantic Forest in Souhtheastern Brazil: Serra da Fartura, SP, Serra da Bocaina, SP, and Itatiaia, RJ. Trapping of small rodents and marsupials was done every 3 months during 2 years, from June 1999 to May 2001. A total 502 rodents (13 species) and 50 marsupials (7 species) were collected, and 185 hosts out of 552 (33.5%) captured in the traps were parasitized by 327 fleas belonging to 11 different species. New host records were determined for several flea species, and 5 significant associations between fleas and hosts were also found.

Intradermal vaccination of adults with three low doses (2 µg) of recombinant hepatitis B vaccine. I. Seroconversion rate and adverse effects

A total of 250 dentists (53.6% men and 46.4% women), with a mean age of 35.1 ± 9.8 years, were submitted to serological tests for the diagnosis of hepatitis B (HB) - HBsAg, anti-HBs, anti-HBc, HBeAg, and anti-HBe - using a radioimmunoassay. One or more of these markers were detected in 78 individuals (31.2%) who were excluded from the group to be vaccinated. Of the 172 HB-susceptible individuals, 135 (78.5%) responded to the call and were intradermally injected with three 2 µg doses of the Belgian HB recombinant vaccine, applied at an interval of one month between the 1st and 2nd dose and of five months between the 2nd and 3rd dose. A new determination of HB markers carried out 50 days after the 3rd dose showed that 110 (81.5%) individuals had become anti-HBs positive (65.5% good responders and 34.5% poor responders). Mean serum anti-HBs titer of these 110 dentists was 42.4 U S/N, similar in both sexes. The adverse effects analyzed in 106 dentists were: (a) local: pain (12.3%), burning sensation (14.1%), pruritus (25.5%), erythema (28.3%), local heat (18.9%), and a hypochromic spot (32.1%); (b) systemic (4.7%): discomfort in two patients, and fever, anorexia, and asthenia in one patient each. Intradermal administration of a fourth 2 µg vaccine dose to 39 dentists (poor or non-responders) increased the total number of anti-HBs-positive individuals from 110 (81.5%) to 114 (84.4%), with the number of good responders increasing from 72 (65.5%) to 85 (74.6%). We conclude that the Belgian recombinant vaccine applied in the scheme used here induces a high rate of seroconversion and causes only mild and transitory adverse effects.

Intradermal vaccination of adults with three low doses (2 µg) of recombinant hepatitis B vaccine. II. Persistence of immunity and induction of immunologic memory

Of the 110 dentists who had presented seroconversion 50 days after the intradermal application of three 2 µg doses of the Belgian recombinant vaccine against hepatitis B (HB), administered eight years before at an interval of one month between the 1st and 2nd doses and of five months between the 2nd and 3rd doses, 51 were included for the assessment of the persistence of immunity. None of the dentists had hepatitis or had received HB vaccine during this period. All subjects were submitted to serological tests for the detection of the following markers of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection: HBsAg, anti-HBc, HBeAg, anti-HBe, and anti-HBs, with no HBsAg, anti-HBc, HBeAg or anti-HBe being detected. A microparticle enzyme immunoassay (MEIA) revealed the presence of anti-HBs at protective titers (> 10 mIU/ml) in 42 dentists (82.4%), with the anti-HBs titer being higher than 100 mIU/ml in 36 of them (70.6%) (good responders), between 10 and 100 mIU/ml in 6 (11.8%) (poor responders), and lower than 10 mIU/ml in 9 (17.6%) (non-responders). According to clinical data and serological tests, none of the dentists had presented disease or latent HBV infection during the eight years following the first vaccination. A 2 µg booster dose was administered intradermally to eight dentists with anti-HBs titers lower than 10 mIU/ml (non-responders) and to six dentists with titers ranging from 10 to 100 mIU/ml (poor responders); the determination of anti-HBs one month later demonstrated the occurrence of seroconversion in the eight non-responders and an increase in anti-HBs titer in the six poor responders. In summary, the present results demonstrated the prolonged persistence of protection against HBV infection and the development of immunologic memory provided by vaccination against HB - with intra-dermal application of three 2 µg doses of the Belgian recombinant vaccine at 0, 1, and 6 months - carried out eight years before in 51 dentists.

Physicochemical aspects and efficiency of albuterol nebulization: comparison of three aerosol types in an in vitro pediatric model.

BACKGROUND: Advances in nebulizer design have produced both ultrasonic nebulizers and devices based on a vibrating mesh (vibrating mesh nebulizers), which are expected to enhance the efficiency of aerosol drug therapy. The aim of this study was to compare 4 different nebulizers, of 3 different types, in an in vitro model using albuterol delivery and physical characteristics as benchmarks. METHODS: The following nebulizers were tested: Sidestream Disposable jet nebulizer, Multisonic Infra Control ultrasonic nebulizer, and the Aerogen Pro and Aerogen Solo vibrating mesh nebulizers. Aerosol duration, temperature, and drug solution osmolality were measured during nebulization. Albuterol delivery was measured by a high-performance liquid chromatography system with fluorometric detection. The droplet size distribution was analyzed with a laser granulometer. RESULTS: The ultrasonic nebulizer was the fastest device based on the duration of nebulization; the jet nebulizer was the slowest. Solution temperature decreased during nebulization when the jet nebulizer and vibrating mesh nebulizers were used, but it increased with the ultrasonic nebulizer. Osmolality was stable during nebulization with the vibrating mesh nebulizers, but increased with the jet nebulizer and ultrasonic nebulizer, indicating solvent evaporation. Albuterol delivery was 1.6 and 2.3 times higher with the ultrasonic nebulizer and vibrating mesh nebulizers devices, respectively, than with the jet nebulizer. Particle size was significantly higher with the ultrasonic nebulizer. CONCLUSIONS: The in vitro model was effective for comparing nebulizer types, demonstrating important differences between nebulizer types. The new devices, both the ultrasonic nebulizers and vibrating mesh nebulizers, delivered more aerosolized drug than traditional jet nebulizers.

Cytotoxicity of three new triazolo-pyrimidine derivatives against the plant trypanosomatid: Phytomonas sp. isolated from Euphorbia characias

There is no effective chemotherapy against diseases caused by Phytomonas sp., a plant trypanosomatid responsible for economic losses in major crops. We tested three triazolo-pyrimidine complexes [two with Pt(II), and another with Ru(III)] against promastigotes of Phytomonas sp. isolated from Euphorbia characias. The incorporation of radiolabelled precursors, ultrastructural alterations and changes in the pattern of metabolite excretion were examined. Different degrees of toxicity were found for each complex: the platinun compound showed an inhibition effect on nucleic acid synthesis, provoking alterations on the levels of mitochondria, nucleus and glycosomes. These results, together with others reported previously in our laboratory about the activity of pyrimidine derivatives, reflect the potential of these compounds as agents in the treatment of Phytomonas sp.

Toxicity at three years with and without irradiation of the internal mammary and medial supraclavicular lymph node chain in stage I to III breast cancer (EORTC trial 22922/10925).

INTRODUCTION: The EORTC 22922/10925 trial investigated the potential survival benefit and toxicity of elective irradiation of the internal mammary and medial supraclavicular (IM-MS) nodes Accrual completed in January 2004 and first results are expected in 2012. We present the toxicity reported until year 3 after treatment. PATIENTS AND METHODS: At each visit, toxicity was reported but severity was not graded routinely. Toxicity rates and performance status (PS) changes at three years were compared by chi(2) tests and logistic regression models in all the 3,866 of 4,004 patients eligible to the trial who received the allocated treatment. RESULTS: Only lung (fibrosis; dyspnoea; pneumonitis; any lung toxicities) (4.3% vs. 1.3%; p < 0.0001) but not cardiac toxicity (0.3% vs. 0.4%; p = 0.55) significantly increased with IM-MS treatment. No significant worsening of the PS was observed (p = 0.79), suggesting that treatment-related toxicity does not impair patient's daily activities. CONCLUSIONS: IM-MS irradiation seems well tolerated and does not significantly impair WHO PS at three years. A follow-up period of at least 10 years is needed to determine whether cardiac toxicity is increased after radiotherapy.

Three new species of Isospora Schneider, 1881 (Apicomplexa: Eimeriidae) from the double-collared seed eater, Sporophila caerulescens (Passeriformes: Emberizidae), from Eastern Brazil

Three isosporan species are described from the double-collared seedeater, Sporophila caerulescens from Eastern Brazil. Isospora sporophilae n. sp. oocysts spherical to subspherical; oocyst wall bi-layered, smooth, inner layer colorless to pale yellowish, 21.6 × 20.9 (19.20-23.20 × 18.40-22.60) µm, shape-index 1.03 ± 0.02 (1-1.10), with no micropyle or oocyst residuum. Polar bodies splinter-like or comma-like. Sporocysts ovoidal, 15.2 × 10.6 (17.40-12.80 × 12.60-8.40) µm, shape-index 1.43 ± 0.14 (1.17-1.81), with knob-like Stieda body and residuum. Large crystalloid body in the center of the sporocyst. Isospora flausinoi n. sp. oocysts spherical to subspherical, oocyst wall bi-layered, smooth, colorless, 17.30 x 16.53 (14-20 × 13.60-20) µm, shape-index 1.05 ± 0.04 (1-1.21). Micropyle and oocyst residuum absent; presence of a large polar body. Sporocyst piriform, 14.88 x 10.70 (11.80-18 × 8-12.40) µm, shape-index 1.40 ± 0.18 (1.07-1.77), with smooth, thin, single-layered wall. Sporocyst with rounded Stieda body with no substieda body, and residuum composed of granular material. Isospora teixeirafilhoi n. sp. oocysts spherical to subspherical, oocyst wall bi-layered, smooth, colorless, 17.41 x 16.81 (15.60 19.40 × 14.20-18.80) µm. Shape-index 1.04 ± 0.08 (1-1.12). Micropyle and oocyst residuum absent; presence of a small double-lobuled polar body. Sporocyst ovoid, 11.74 × 8.12 (9-14.20 × 6.20-9.40) µm. Shape-index 1.46 ± 0.23 (1.06-1.88). Sporocyst with knob-like Stieda body, no sub-Stieda body and residuum composed of granular material.

More is not always better-comparison of three instruments measuring volume of drinking in a sample of young men and their association with consequences

OBJECTIVE: In general population survey instruments that measure volume of drinking, additional questions and shorter reference periods yield higher volumes. Comparison studies have focused on volume but not on associations between volume and consequences. METHOD: From a cohort study on substance use risk factors (Cohort Study on Substance Use Risk Factors [C-SURF]), baseline data were analyzed for 5,074 young (approximately 20-year-old) men who were drinkers in the past 12 months. Volume of drinking was measured by a generic quantity-frequency (QF) instrument, an extended QF (separately for weekends and weekdays) instrument with 12-months recall, and a retrospective past-week diary. Associations of consequences with and without attribution of alcohol as a cause, Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition (DSM-IV), criteria for dependence, and DSM-5 alcohol use disorder in the past 12 months were analyzed. RESULTS: The generic QF measure resulted in lower volume compared with either the extended QF measure (more questions) or the retrospective diary (the most questions and the shortest recall period). For outcomes, however, the extended QF assessment performed the best and the diary the worst. CONCLUSIONS: Higher volume yields are not always better regarding associations with outcomes. The extended QF instrument better captures the variability of drinking. The retrospective diary performs poorly for associations because of the mismatch with the recall period for past-12-months consequences and the potential for misclassification of past-week abstainers and heavy drinkers because of an uncommon past week. Diaries are not recommended for research investigating individual associations between exposure and outcomes in young populations if consequences are measured with a sufficiently long interval to capture rare consequences. (J. Stud. Alcohol Drugs, 75, 880-888, 2014).

Prevalence of injuries among three-year-old children in the Republic of Ireland in 2011

The Institute of Public health in Ireland (IPH) produces population prevalence estimates and forecasts for a number of chronic conditions among adults. IPH has now applied the methodology to examine health conditions and injuries among young children across the island of Ireland.This short report is a supplement to a previous IPH report that examines health conditions among three-year-olds in the Republic of Ireland. It provides estimates of the prevalence of injuries that required hospital admission or treatment among three-year-olds in the Republic of Ireland in 2011. The analysis identifies risk factors associated with child injuries and provides estimates of the prevalence of these conditions for each of the 34 administrative cities and counties.

Patterns of antenal sensilla of Panstrongylus megistus from three Brazilian states

The objective of the present study was to analyze and describe the phenotype of the antennal sensilla of Panstrongylus megistus, one of the epidemiologically most important species of triatomines in Brazil. Specimens from the Brazilian states of Goiás (GO), Minas Gerais (MG), and Rio Grande do Sul (RS) were compared, based on studies of four types of sensilla on three antennal segments: thick-walled trichoid (TK), thin-walled trichoid (TH), bristles (BR), and basiconica (BA). Discriminant analysis allowed the separation of the RS specimens from those of GO and MG. Multivariate discriminant analysis demonstrated that the sensilla of males differed from those of females, the variables with greatest weight being the BA of all three segments and the TK of flagellum 1. The basiconica sensilla were significantly more abundant in females, on all three segments. Antennal sensilla patterns also demonstrated significant differences among P. megistus specimens.

Acquired auditory agnosia in childhood and normal sleep electroencephalography subsequently diagnosed as Landau-Kleffner syndrome: a report of three cases.

Aim  We report three cases of Landau-Kleffner syndrome (LKS) in children (two females, one male) in whom diagnosis was delayed because the sleep electroencephalography (EEG) was initially normal. Method  Case histories including EEG, positron emission tomography findings, and long-term outcome were reviewed. Results  Auditory agnosia occurred between the age of 2 years and 3 years 6 months, after a period of normal language development. Initial awake and sleep EEG, recorded weeks to months after the onset of language regression, during a nap period in two cases and during a full night of sleep in the third case, was normal. Repeat EEG between 2 months and 2 years later showed epileptiform discharges during wakefulness and strongly activated by sleep, with a pattern of continuous spike-waves during slow-wave sleep in two patients. Patients were diagnosed with LKS and treated with various antiepileptic regimens, including corticosteroids. One patient in whom EEG became normal on hydrocortisone is making significant recovery. The other two patients did not exhibit a sustained response to treatment and remained severely impaired. Interpretation  Sleep EEG may be normal in the early phase of acquired auditory agnosia. EEG should be repeated frequently in individuals in whom a firm clinical diagnosis is made to facilitate early treatment.

Shared and non-shared antigens from three different extracts of the metacestode of Echinococcus granulosus

Hydatid cyst fluid (HCF), somatic antigens (S-Ag) and excretory-secretory products (ES-Ag) of Echinococcus granulosus protoscoleces are used as the main antigenic sources for immunodiagnosis of human and dog echinococcosis. In order to determine their non-shared as well as their shared antigenic components, these extracts were studied by ELISA-inhibition and immunoblot-inhibition. Assays were carried out using homologous rabbit polyclonal antisera, human sera from individuals with surgically confirmed hydatidosis, and sera from dogs naturally infected with E. granulosus. High levels of cross-reactivity were observed for all antigenic extracts, but especially for ES-Ag and S-Ag. Canine antibodies evidenced lesser avidity for their specific antigens than antibodies from human origin. The major antigenic components shared by HCF, S-Ag, and ES-Ag have apparent molecular masses of 4-6, 20-24, 52, 80, and 100-104 kDa, including doublets of 41/45, 54/57, and 65/68 kDa. Non-shared polypeptides of each antigenic extract of E. granulosus were identified, having apparent masses of 108 and 78 kDa for HCF, of 124, 94, 83, and 75 kDa for S-Ag, and of 89, 66, 42, 39, 37, and 35 kDa for ES-Ag.