The retrieval of ice water content from radar reflectivity factor and temperature and its use in evaluating a mesoscale model

Ice clouds are an important yet largely unvalidated component of weather forecasting and climate models, but radar offers the potential to provide the necessary data to evaluate them. First in this paper, coordinated aircraft in situ measurements and scans by a 3-GHz radar are presented, demonstrating that, for stratiform midlatitude ice clouds, radar reflectivity in the Rayleigh-scattering regime may be reliably calculated from aircraft size spectra if the "Brown and Francis" mass-size relationship is used. The comparisons spanned radar reflectivity values from -15 to +20 dBZ, ice water contents (IWCs) from 0.01 to 0.4 g m(-3), and median volumetric diameters between 0.2 and 3 mm. In mixed-phase conditions the agreement is much poorer because of the higher-density ice particles present. A large midlatitude aircraft dataset is then used to derive expressions that relate radar reflectivity and temperature to ice water content and visible extinction coefficient. The analysis is an advance over previous work in several ways: the retrievals vary smoothly with both input parameters, different relationships are derived for the common radar frequencies of 3, 35, and 94 GHz, and the problem of retrieving the long-term mean and the horizontal variance of ice cloud parameters is considered separately. It is shown that the dependence on temperature arises because of the temperature dependence of the number concentration "intercept parameter" rather than mean particle size. A comparison is presented of ice water content derived from scanning 3-GHz radar with the values held in the Met Office mesoscale forecast model, for eight precipitating cases spanning 39 h over Southern England. It is found that the model predicted mean I WC to within 10% of the observations at temperatures between -30 degrees and - 10 degrees C but tended to underestimate it by around a factor of 2 at colder temperatures.

Global scale water stages from SAR imagery (GlosSARi) to support global flood forecasting

Despite the success of studies attempting to integrate remotely sensed data and flood modelling and the need to provide near-real time data routinely on a global scale as well as setting up online data archives, there is to date a lack of spatially and temporally distributed hydraulic parameters to support ongoing efforts in modelling. Therefore, the objective of this project is to provide a global evaluation and benchmark data set of floodplain water stages with uncertainties and assimilation in a large scale flood model using space-borne radar imagery. An algorithm is developed for automated retrieval of water stages with uncertainties from a sequence of radar imagery and data are assimilated in a flood model using the Tewkesbury 2007 flood event as a feasibility study. The retrieval method that we employ is based on possibility theory which is an extension of fuzzy sets and that encompasses probability theory. In our case we first attempt to identify main sources of uncertainty in the retrieval of water stages from radar imagery for which we define physically meaningful ranges of parameter values. Possibilities of values are then computed for each parameter using a triangular ‘membership’ function. This procedure allows the computation of possible values of water stages at maximum flood extents along a river at many different locations. At a later stage in the project these data are then used in assimilation, calibration or validation of a flood model. The application is subsequently extended to a global scale using wide swath radar imagery and a simple global flood forecasting model thereby providing improved river discharge estimates to update the latter.

Retrieval of effective ice crystal size in the infrared: sensitivity study and global measurements from TIROS-N Operational Vertical Sounder

The difference between cirrus emissivities at 8 and 11 μm is sensitive to the mean effective ice crystal size of the cirrus cloud, De. By using single scattering properties of ice crystals shaped as planar polycrystals, diameters of up to about 70 μm can be retrieved, instead of up to 45 μm assuming spheres or hexagonal columns. The method described in this article is used for a global determination of mean effective ice crystal sizes of cirrus clouds from TOVS satellite observations. A sensitivity study of the De retrieval to uncertainties in hypotheses on ice crystal shape, size distributions, and temperature profiles, as well as in vertical and horizontal cloud heterogeneities shows that uncertainties can be as large as 30%. However, the TOVS data set is one of few data sets which provides global and long-term coverage. Having analyzed the years 1987–1991, it was found that measured effective ice crystal diameters De are stable from year to year. For 1990 a global median De of 53.5 μm was determined. Averages distinguishing ocean/land, season, and latitude lie between 23 μm in winter over Northern Hemisphere midlatitude land and 64 μm in the tropics. In general, larger Des are found in regions with higher atmospheric water vapor and for cirrus with a smaller effective emissivity.

Parchment codices in a new text of Galen

An article proposing that the recently discovered Peri Alupias of Galen contains important evidence about the adoption and use of the codex book form.

Estimating drizzle drop size and precipitation rate using two-colour lidar measurements

A method to estimate the size and liquid water content of drizzle drops using lidar measurements at two wavelengths is described. The method exploits the differential absorption of infrared light by liquid water at 905 nm and 1.5 μm, which leads to a different backscatter cross section for water drops larger than ≈50 μm. The ratio of backscatter measured from drizzle samples below cloud base at these two wavelengths (the colour ratio) provides a measure of the median volume drop diameter D0. This is a strong effect: for D0=200 μm, a colour ratio of ≈6 dB is predicted. Once D0 is known, the measured backscatter at 905 nm can be used to calculate the liquid water content (LWC) and other moments of the drizzle drop distribution. The method is applied to observations of drizzle falling from stratocumulus and stratus clouds. High resolution (32 s, 36 m) profiles of D0, LWC and precipitation rate R are derived. The main sources of error in the technique are the need to assume a value for the dispersion parameter μ in the drop size spectrum (leading to at most a 35% error in R) and the influence of aerosol returns on the retrieval (≈10% error in R for the cases considered here). Radar reflectivities are also computed from the lidar data, and compared to independent measurements from a colocated cloud radar, offering independent validation of the derived drop size distributions.

Effects of divided attention and speeded responding on implicit and explicit retrieval of artificial grammar knowledge

The artificial grammar (AG) learning literature (see, e.g., Mathews et al., 1989; Reber, 1967) has relied heavily on a single measure of implicitly acquired knowledge. Recent work comparing this measure (string classification) with a more indirect measure in which participants make liking ratings of novel stimuli (e.g., Manza & Bornstein, 1995; Newell & Bright, 2001) has shown that string classification (which we argue can be thought of as an explicit, rather than an implicit, measure of memory) gives rise to more explicit knowledge of the grammatical structure in learning strings and is more resilient to changes in surface features and processing between encoding and retrieval. We report data from two experiments that extend these findings. In Experiment 1, we showed that a divided attention manipulation (at retrieval) interfered with explicit retrieval of AG knowledge but did not interfere with implicit retrieval. In Experiment 2, we showed that forcing participants to respond within a very tight deadline resulted in the same asymmetric interference pattern between the tasks. In both experiments, we also showed that the type of information being retrieved influenced whether interference was observed. The results are discussed in terms of the relatively automatic nature of implicit retrieval and also with respect to the differences between analytic and nonanalytic processing (Whittlesea Price, 2001).