The number and timing of time -dependent covariate measurements for the Cox regression model

The problem of analyzing data with updated measurements in the time-dependent proportional hazards model arises frequently in practice. One available option is to reduce the number of intervals (or updated measurements) to be included in the Cox regression model. We empirically investigated the bias of the estimator of the time-dependent covariate while varying the effect of failure rate, sample size, true values of the parameters and the number of intervals. We also evaluated how often a time-dependent covariate needs to be collected and assessed the effect of sample size and failure rate on the power of testing a time-dependent effect.^ A time-dependent proportional hazards model with two binary covariates was considered. The time axis was partitioned into k intervals. The baseline hazard was assumed to be 1 so that the failure times were exponentially distributed in the ith interval. A type II censoring model was adopted to characterize the failure rate. The factors of interest were sample size (500, 1000), type II censoring with failure rates of 0.05, 0.10, and 0.20, and three values for each of the non-time-dependent and time-dependent covariates (1/4,1/2,3/4).^ The mean of the bias of the estimator of the coefficient of the time-dependent covariate decreased as sample size and number of intervals increased whereas the mean of the bias increased as failure rate and true values of the covariates increased. The mean of the bias of the estimator of the coefficient was smallest when all of the updated measurements were used in the model compared with two models that used selected measurements of the time-dependent covariate. For the model that included all the measurements, the coverage rates of the estimator of the coefficient of the time-dependent covariate was in most cases 90% or more except when the failure rate was high (0.20). The power associated with testing a time-dependent effect was highest when all of the measurements of the time-dependent covariate were used. An example from the Systolic Hypertension in the Elderly Program Cooperative Research Group is presented. ^

ATXA -dependent gene expression in Bacillus anthracis

The Bacillus anthracis toxin genes, cya, lef , and pag, can be viewed as a regulon, in which transcription of all three genes is activated in trans by the same regulatory gene, atxA, in response to the same signal, CO2. I determined that several phenotypes are associated with the atxA gene. In addition to being toxin-deficient, an atxA -null mutant grows poorly on minimal media and sporulates early compared to the parent strain. Furthermore, an atxA-null mutant has an altered 2-D gel protein profile. I used a genetic approach to find additional atxA-regulated genes. Random transcriptional lacZ fusions were generated in B. anthracis using transposon Tn 917-LTV3. Transposon-insertion libraries were screened for mutants expressing increased β-galactosidase activity in 5% CO2. Introduction of an atxA-null mutation in these mutants revealed that 79% of the CO2-regulated fusions were also atxA-dependent. DNA sequence analysis of transposon insertion sites in mutants carrying CO 2/atxA-regulated fusions revealed ten mutants harboring transposon insertions in loci distinct from the toxin genes. The majority of the tcr (toxin co-regulated) loci mapped within the pXO1 pathogenicity island. These results indicate a clear association of atxA with CO2-enhanced gene expression in B. anthracis and provide evidence that atxA regulates genes other than the structural genes for the anthrax toxin proteins. ^ Characterization of one tcr locus revealed a new regulatory gene, pagR. The pagR gene (300 nt) is located downstream of pag. pagR is cotranscribed with pag and is responsible for autogenous control of the operon. pagR also represses expression of cya and lef. Repression of toxin gene expression by pagR may be mediated by atxA. The steady state level of atxA mRNA is increased in a pagR mutant. Recombinant PagR protein purified from Escherichia coli did not specifically bind the promoter regions of pagA or atxA. An unidentified factor in B. anthracis crude extracts, however, was able to bind the atxA promoter in the absence of PagR or AtxA. These investigations increase our knowledge of virulence regulation in B. anthracis and ultimately will lead to a better understanding of anthrax disease. ^

Specific conductivity and hydrogen ions measured on two ice core (NEEM and NGRIP)

A stratigraphy-based chronology for the North Greenland Eemian Ice Drilling (NEEM) ice core has been derived by transferring the annual layer counted Greenland Ice Core Chronology 2005 (GICC05) and its model extension (GICC05modelext) from the NGRIP core to the NEEM core using 787 match points of mainly volcanic origin identified in the electrical conductivity measurement (ECM) and dielectrical profiling (DEP) records. Tephra horizons found in both the NEEM and NGRIP ice cores are used to test the matching based on ECM and DEP and provide five additional horizons used for the timescale transfer. A thinning function reflecting the accumulated strain along the core has been determined using a Dansgaard-Johnsen flow model and an isotope-dependent accumulation rate parameterization. Flow parameters are determined from Monte Carlo analysis constrained by the observed depth-age horizons. In order to construct a chronology for the gas phase, the ice age-gas age difference (Delta age) has been reconstructed using a coupled firn densification-heat diffusion model. Temperature and accumulation inputs to the Delta age model, initially derived from the water isotope proxies, have been adjusted to optimize the fit to timing constraints from d15N of nitrogen and high-resolution methane data during the abrupt onset of Greenland interstadials. The ice and gas chronologies and the corresponding thinning function represent the first chronology for the NEEM core, named GICC05modelext-NEEM-1. Based on both the flow and firn modelling results, the accumulation history for the NEEM site has been reconstructed. Together, the timescale and accumulation reconstruction provide the necessary basis for further analysis of the records from NEEM.

Mean snow accumulation rate, and mean methane sulfonate, chloride and nitrate concentration in snow pits and firn cores of Dronning Maud Land

We quantified postdepositional losses of methane sulfonate (MSA-), nitrate, and chloride at the European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica (EPICA) drilling site in Dronning Maud Land (DML) (75°S, 0°E). Analyses of four intermediate deep firn cores and 13 snow pits were considered. We found that about 26 ± 13% of the once deposited nitrate and typically 51 ± 20% of MSA- were lost, while for chloride, no significant depletion could be observed in firn older than one year. Assuming a first order exponential decay rate, the characteristic e-folding time for MSA- is 6.4 ± 3 years and 19 ± 6 years for nitrate. It turns out that for nitrate and MSA- the typical mean concentrations representative for the last 100 years were reached after 5.4 and 6.5 years, respectively, indicating that beneath a depth of around 1.2-1.4 m postdepositional losses can be neglected. In the area of investigation, only MSA- concentrations and postdepositional losses showed a distinct dependence on snow accumulation rate. Consequently, MSA- concentrations archived at this site should be significantly dependent on the variability of annual snow accumulation, and we recommend a corresponding correction. With a simple approach, we estimated the partial pressure of the free acids MSA, HNO3, and HCl on the basis of Henry's law assuming that ionic impurities of the bulk ice matrix are localized in a quasi-brine layer (QBL). In contrast to measurements, this approach predicts a nearly complete loss of MSA-, NO3 - , and Cl-.

Measurements of velocity-dependent and slip-dependent frictional strength in laboratory friction experiments on natural samples from IODP Expedition 316 and ODP Hole 190-1174B

Slowslip forms part of the spectrum of fault behaviour between stable creep and destructive earthquakes. Slow slip occurs near the boundaries of large earthquake rupture zones and may sometimes trigger fast earthquakes. It is thought to occur in faults comprised of rocks that strengthen under fast slip rates, preventing rupture as a normal earthquake, or on faults that have elevated pore-fluid pressures. However, the processes that control slow rupture and the relationship between slow and normal earthquakes are enigmatic. Here we use laboratory experiments to simulate faulting in natural rock samples taken from shallow parts of the Nankai subduction zone, Japan, where very low-frequency earthquakes - a form of slow slip - have been observed.We find that the fault rocks exhibit decreasing strength over millimetre-scale slip distances rather than weakening due to increasing velocity. However, the sizes of the slip nucleation patches in our laboratory simulations are similar to those expected for the very lowfrequency earthquakes observed in Nankai. We therefore suggest that this type of fault-weakening behaviour may generate slow earthquakes. Owing to the similarity between the expected behaviour of slow earthquakes based on our data, and that of normal earthquakes during nucleation, we suggest that some types of slow slip may represent prematurely arrested earthquakes.

Haemolymph inorganic ion composition, physiology and behaviour dependent on temperature and ambient magnesium concentration in early life history stages of Paralomis granulosa (Decapoda, Anomura, Lithodidae)

Marine brachyuran and anomuran crustaceans are completely absent from the extremely cold (-1.8 °C) Antarctic continental shelf, but caridean shrimps are abundant. This has at least partly been attributed to low capacities for magnesium excretion in brachyuran and anomuran lithodid crabs ([Mg2+]HL = 20-50 mmol/L) compared to caridean shrimp species ([Mg2+]HL = 5-12 mmol/L). Magnesium has an anaesthetizing effect and reduces cold tolerance and activity of adult brachyuran crabs. We investigated whether the capacity for magnesium regulation is a factor that influences temperature-dependent activity of early ontogenetic stages of the Sub-Antarctic lithodid crab Paralomis granulosa. Ion composition (Na+, Mg2+, Ca2+, Cl-, [SO4]2-) was measured in haemolymph withdrawn from larval stages, the first and second juvenile instars (crabs I and II) and adult males and females. Magnesium excretion improved during ontogeny, but haemolymph sulphate concentration was lowest in the zoeal stages. Neither haemolymph magnesium concentrations nor Ca2+:Mg2+ ratios paralleled activity levels of the life stages. Long-term (3 week) cold exposure of crab I to 1 °C caused a significant rise of haemolymph sulphate concentration and a decrease in magnesium and calcium concentrations compared to control temperature (9 °C). Spontaneous swimming activity of the zoeal stages was determined at 1, 4 and 9 °C in natural sea water (NSW, [Mg2+] = 51 mmol/L) and in sea water enriched with magnesium (NSW + Mg2+, [Mg2+] = 97 mmol/L). It declined significantly with temperature but only insignificantly with increased magnesium concentration. Spontaneous velocities were low, reflecting the demersal life style of the zoeae. Heart rate, scaphognathite beat rate and forced swimming activity (maxilliped beat rate, zoea I) or antennule beat rate (crab I) were investigated in response to acute temperature change (9, 6, 3, 1, -1 °C) in NSW or NSW + Mg2+. High magnesium concentration reduced heart rates in both stages. The temperature-frequency curve of the maxilliped beat (maximum: 9.6 beats/s at 6.6 °C in NSW) of zoea I was depressed and shifted towards warmer temperatures by 2 °C in NSW + Mg2+, but antennule beat rate of crab I was not affected. Magnesium may therefore influence cold tolerance of highly active larvae, but it remains questionable whether the slow-moving lithodid crabs with demersal larvae would benefit from an enhanced magnesium excretion in nature.

Haemolymph inorganic ion composition, physiology and behaviour dependent on temperature and magnesium in adult Paralomis granulosa (Decapoda, Anomura, Lithodidae)

A low capacity for regulation of extracellular Mg2+ has been proposed to exclude reptant marine decapod crustaceans from temperatures below 0°C and thus to exclude them from the high Antarctic. To test this hypothesis and to elaborate the underlying mechanisms in the most cold-tolerant reptant decapod family of the sub-Antarctic, the Lithodidae, thermal tolerance was determined in the crab Paralomis granulosa (Decapoda, Anomura, Lithodidae) using an acute stepwise temperature protocol (-1°, 1°, 4°, 7°, 10°, and 13°C). Arterial and venous oxygen partial pressures (Po2) in hemolymph, heartbeat and ventilation beat frequencies, and hemolymph cation composition were measured at rest and after a forced activity (righting) trial. Scopes for heartbeat and ventilation beat frequencies and intermittent heartbeat and scaphognathite beat rates at rest were evaluated. Hemolymph [Mg2+] was experimentally reduced from 30 mmol/L to a level naturally observed in Antarctic caridean shrimps (12 mmol/L) to investigate whether the animals remain more active and tolerant to cold (-1°, 1°, and 4°C). In natural seawater, righting speed was significantly slower at -1° and 13°C, compared with acclimation temperature (4°C). Arterial and venous hemolymph Po2 increased in response to cooling even though heartbeat and ventilation beat frequencies as well as scopes decreased. At rest, ionic composition of the hemolymph was not affected by temperature. Activity induced a significant increase in hemolymph [K+] at -1° and 1°C. Reduction of hemolymph [Mg2+] did not result in an increase in activity, an increase in heartbeat and ventilation beat frequencies, or a shift in thermal tolerance to lower temperatures. In conclusion, oxygen delivery in this cold-water crustacean was not acutely limiting cold tolerance, and animals may have been constrained more by their functional capacity and motility. In contrast to earlier findings in temperate and subpolar brachyuran crabs, these constraints remained insensitive to changing Mg2+ levels.

Seawater carbonate chemistry, biomass and metabolic rates (leucine incorporation, CO2 fixation and respiration) of Rhodobacteraceae (strain MED165) and Flavobacteriaceae (strain MED217) in a laboratory experiment

Experimental results related to the effects of ocean acidification on planktonic marine microbes are still rather inconsistent and occasionally contradictory. Moreover, laboratory or field experiments that address the effects of changes in CO2 concentrations on heterotrophic microbes are very scarce, despite the major role of these organisms in the marine carbon cycle. We tested the direct effect of an elevated CO2 concentration (1000 ppmv) on the biomass and metabolic rates (leucine incorporation, CO2 fixation and respiration) of 2 isolates belonging to 2 relevant marine bacterial families, Rhodobacteraceae (strain MED165) and Flavobacteriaceae (strain MED217). Our results demonstrate that, contrary to some expectations, high pCO2 did not negatively affect bacterial growth but increased growth efficiency in the case of MED217. The elevated partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) caused, in both cases, higher rates of CO2 fixation in the dissolved fraction and, in the case of MED217, lower respiration rates. Both responses would tend to increase the pH of seawater acting as a negative feedback between elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations and ocean acidification.

Seawater carbonate chemistry and carbon allocation, growth and morphology of the coccolithophore Emiliania huxleyi (calcifying strain CCMP 371) during experiments, 2011

Coccolithophores are unicellular phytoplankton that produce calcium carbonate coccoliths as an exoskeleton. Emiliania huxleyi, the most abundant coccolithophore in the world's ocean, plays a major role in the global carbon cycle by regulating the exchange of CO2 across the ocean-atmosphere interface through photosynthesis and calcium carbonate precipitation. As CO2 concentration is rising in the atmosphere, the ocean is acidifying and ammonium (NH4) concentration of future ocean water is expected to rise. The latter is attributed to increasing anthropogenic nitrogen (N) deposition, increasing rates of cyanobacterial N2 fixation due to warmer and more stratified oceans, and decreased rates of nitrification due to ocean acidification. Thus future global climate change will cause oceanic phytoplankton to experience changes in multiple environmental parameters including CO2, pH, temperature and nitrogen source. This study reports on the combined effect of elevated pCO2 and increased NH4 to nitrate (NO3) ratio (NH4/NO3) on E. huxleyi, maintained in continuous cultures for more than 200 generations under two pCO2 levels and two different N sources. Here we show that NH4 assimilation under N-replete conditions depresses calcification at both low and high pCO2, alters coccolith morphology, and increases primary production. We observed that N source and pCO2 synergistically drive growth rates, cell size and the ratio of inorganic to organic carbon. These responses to N source suggest that, compared to increasing CO2 alone, a greater disruption of the organic carbon pump could be expected in response to the combined effect of increased NH4/NO3 ratio and CO2 level in the future acidified ocean. Additional experiments conducted under lower nutrient conditions are needed prior to extrapolating our findings to the global oceans. Nonetheless, our results emphasize the need to assess combined effects of multiple environmental parameters on phytoplankton biology in order to develop accurate predictions of phytoplankton responses to ocean acidification.

Strong shift from HCO3- to CO2 uptake in Emiliania huxleyi with acidification: new approach unravels acclimation versus short-term pH effects

Effects of ocean acidification on Emiliania huxleyi strain RCC 1216 (calcifying, diploid life-cycle stage) and RCC 1217 (non-calcifying, haploid life-cycle stage) were investigated by measuring growth, elemental composition, and production rates under different pCO2 levels (380 and 950 µatm). In these differently acclimated cells, the photosynthetic carbon source was assessed by a (14)C disequilibrium assay, conducted over a range of ecologically relevant pH values (7.9-8.7). In agreement with previous studies, we observed decreased calcification and stimulated biomass production in diploid cells under high pCO2, but no CO2-dependent changes in biomass production for haploid cells. In both life-cycle stages, the relative contributions of CO2 and HCO3 (-) uptake depended strongly on the assay pH. At pH values =< 8.1, cells preferentially used CO2 (>= 90 % CO2), whereas at pH values >= 8.3, cells progressively increased the fraction of HCO3 (-) uptake (~45 % CO2 at pH 8.7 in diploid cells; ~55 % CO2 at pH 8.5 in haploid cells). In contrast to the short-term effect of the assay pH, the pCO2 acclimation history had no significant effect on the carbon uptake behavior. A numerical sensitivity study confirmed that the pH-modification in the (14)C disequilibrium method yields reliable results, provided that model parameters (e.g., pH, temperature) are kept within typical measurement uncertainties. Our results demonstrate a high plasticity of E. huxleyi to rapidly adjust carbon acquisition to the external carbon supply and/or pH, and provide an explanation for the paradoxical observation of high CO2 sensitivity despite the apparently high HCO3 (-) usage seen in previous studies.