Informing the judgments of fingerprint analysts using quality metric and statistical assessment tools

The aim of this research was to evaluate how fingerprint analysts would incorporate information from newly developed tools into their decision making processes. Specifically, we assessed effects using the following: (1) a quality tool to aid in the assessment of the clarity of the friction ridge details, (2) a statistical tool to provide likelihood ratios representing the strength of the corresponding features between compared fingerprints, and (3) consensus information from a group of trained fingerprint experts. The measured variables for the effect on examiner performance were the accuracy and reproducibility of the conclusions against the ground truth (including the impact on error rates) and the analyst accuracy and variation for feature selection and comparison.¦The results showed that participants using the consensus information from other fingerprint experts demonstrated more consistency and accuracy in minutiae selection. They also demonstrated higher accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity in the decisions reported. The quality tool also affected minutiae selection (which, in turn, had limited influence on the reported decisions); the statistical tool did not appear to influence the reported decisions.

Sample size and statistical power in the hierarchical analysis of variance: applications in morphometry of the nervous system.

Analysis of variance is commonly used in morphometry in order to ascertain differences in parameters between several populations. Failure to detect significant differences between populations (type II error) may be due to suboptimal sampling and lead to erroneous conclusions; the concept of statistical power allows one to avoid such failures by means of an adequate sampling. Several examples are given in the morphometry of the nervous system, showing the use of the power of a hierarchical analysis of variance test for the choice of appropriate sample and subsample sizes. In the first case chosen, neuronal densities in the human visual cortex, we find the number of observations to be of little effect. For dendritic spine densities in the visual cortex of mice and humans, the effect is somewhat larger. A substantial effect is shown in our last example, dendritic segmental lengths in monkey lateral geniculate nucleus. It is in the nature of the hierarchical model that sample size is always more important than subsample size. The relative weight to be attributed to subsample size thus depends on the relative magnitude of the between observations variance compared to the between individuals variance.

A-1 Monthly Public Assistance Statistical Report Family Investment Program, August 2009

A-1 - Monthly Public Assistance Statistical Report Family Investment Program

Transportation choices and the value of statistical life

This paper exploits an unusual transportation setting to estimate the value of a statistical life(VSL). We estimate the trade-offs individuals are willing to make between mortality risk andcost as they travel to and from the international airport in Sierra Leone (which is separated fromthe capital Freetown by a body of water). Travelers choose from among multiple transportoptions ? namely, ferry, helicopter, hovercraft, and water taxi. The setting and original datasetallow us to address some typical omitted variable concerns in order to generate some of the firstrevealed preference VSL estimates from Africa. The data also allows us to compare VSLestimates for travelers from 56 countries, including 20 African and 36 non-African countries, allfacing the same choice situation. The average VSL estimate for African travelers in the sample isUS$577,000 compared to US$924,000 for non-Africans. Individual characteristics, particularlyjob earnings, can largely account for the difference between Africans and non-Africans; Africansin the sample typically earn somewhat less. There is little evidence that individual VSL estimatesare driven by a lack of information, predicted life expectancy, or cultural norms around risktakingor fatalism. The data implies an income elasticity of the VSL of 1.77. These revealedpreference VSL estimates from a developing country fill an important gap in the existingliterature, and can be used for a variety of public policy purposes, including in current debateswithin Sierra Leone regarding the desirability of constructing new transportation infrastructure.

Gene-Age Interactions in Blood Pressure Regulation: A Large-Scale Investigation with the CHARGE, Global BPgen, and ICBP Consortia.

Although age-dependent effects on blood pressure (BP) have been reported, they have not been systematically investigated in large-scale genome-wide association studies (GWASs). We leveraged the infrastructure of three well-established consortia (CHARGE, GBPgen, and ICBP) and a nonstandard approach (age stratification and metaregression) to conduct a genome-wide search of common variants with age-dependent effects on systolic (SBP), diastolic (DBP), mean arterial (MAP), and pulse (PP) pressure. In a two-staged design using 99,241 individuals of European ancestry, we identified 20 genome-wide significant (p ≤ 5 × 10(-8)) loci by using joint tests of the SNP main effect and SNP-age interaction. Nine of the significant loci demonstrated nominal evidence of age-dependent effects on BP by tests of the interactions alone. Index SNPs in the EHBP1L1 (DBP and MAP), CASZ1 (SBP and MAP), and GOSR2 (PP) loci exhibited the largest age interactions, with opposite directions of effect in the young versus the old. The changes in the genetic effects over time were small but nonnegligible (up to 1.58 mm Hg over 60 years). The EHBP1L1 locus was discovered through gene-age interactions only in whites but had DBP main effects replicated (p = 8.3 × 10(-4)) in 8,682 Asians from Singapore, indicating potential interethnic heterogeneity. A secondary analysis revealed 22 loci with evidence of age-specific effects (e.g., only in 20 to 29-year-olds). Age can be used to select samples with larger genetic effect sizes and more homogenous phenotypes, which may increase statistical power. Age-dependent effects identified through novel statistical approaches can provide insight into the biology and temporal regulation underlying BP associations.

Paper 4: EUROCAT statistical monitoring: identification and investigation of ten year trends of congenital anomalies in Europe.

BACKGROUND: As part of EUROCAT's surveillance of congenital anomalies in Europe, a statistical monitoring system has been developed to detect recent clusters or long-term (10 year) time trends. The purpose of this article is to describe the system for the identification and investigation of 10-year time trends, conceived as a "screening" tool ultimately leading to the identification of trends which may be due to changing teratogenic factors.METHODS: The EUROCAT database consists of all cases of congenital anomalies including livebirths, fetal deaths from 20 weeks gestational age, and terminations of pregnancy for fetal anomaly. Monitoring of 10-year trends is performed for each registry for each of 96 non-independent EUROCAT congenital anomaly subgroups, while Pan-Europe analysis combines data from all registries. The monitoring results are reviewed, prioritized according to a prioritization strategy, and communicated to registries for investigation. Twenty-one registries covering over 4 million births, from 1999 to 2008, were included in monitoring in 2010.CONCLUSIONS: Significant increasing trends were detected for abdominal wall anomalies, gastroschisis, hypospadias, Trisomy 18 and renal dysplasia in the Pan-Europe analysis while 68 increasing trends were identified in individual registries. A decreasing trend was detected in over one-third of anomaly subgroups in the Pan-Europe analysis, and 16.9% of individual registry tests. Registry preliminary investigations indicated that many trends are due to changes in data quality, ascertainment, screening, or diagnostic methods. Some trends are inevitably chance phenomena related to multiple testing, while others seem to represent real and continuing change needing further investigation and response by regional/national public health authorities.

A-1 Monthly Public Assistance Statistical Report Family Investment Program, September 2009

A-1 - Monthly Public Assistance Statistical Report Family Investment Program

Mutations in FGF17, IL17RD, DUSP6, SPRY4, and FLRT3 Are Identified in Individuals with Congenital Hypogonadotropic Hypogonadism.

Congenital hypogonadotropic hypogonadism (CHH) and its anosmia-associated form (Kallmann syndrome [KS]) are genetically heterogeneous. Among the >15 genes implicated in these conditions, mutations in FGF8 and FGFR1 account for ∼12% of cases; notably, KAL1 and HS6ST1 are also involved in FGFR1 signaling and can be mutated in CHH. We therefore hypothesized that mutations in genes encoding a broader range of modulators of the FGFR1 pathway might contribute to the genetics of CHH as causal or modifier mutations. Thus, we aimed to (1) investigate whether CHH individuals harbor mutations in members of the so-called "FGF8 synexpression" group and (2) validate the ability of a bioinformatics algorithm on the basis of protein-protein interactome data (interactome-based affiliation scoring [IBAS]) to identify high-quality candidate genes. On the basis of sequence homology, expression, and structural and functional data, seven genes were selected and sequenced in 386 unrelated CHH individuals and 155 controls. Except for FGF18 and SPRY2, all other genes were found to be mutated in CHH individuals: FGF17 (n = 3 individuals), IL17RD (n = 8), DUSP6 (n = 5), SPRY4 (n = 14), and FLRT3 (n = 3). Independently, IBAS predicted FGF17 and IL17RD as the two top candidates in the entire proteome on the basis of a statistical test of their protein-protein interaction patterns to proteins known to be altered in CHH. Most of the FGF17 and IL17RD mutations altered protein function in vitro. IL17RD mutations were found only in KS individuals and were strongly linked to hearing loss (6/8 individuals). Mutations in genes encoding components of the FGF pathway are associated with complex modes of CHH inheritance and act primarily as contributors to an oligogenic genetic architecture underlying CHH.

Prediction of 18-month survival in patients with primary myelodysplastic syndrome. A regression model and scoring system based on the combination of chromosome findings and the Bournemouth score.

The predictive potential of six selected factors was assessed in 72 patients with primary myelodysplastic syndrome using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis of survival at 18 months. Factors were age (above median of 69 years), dysplastic features in the three myeloid bone marrow cell lineages, presence of chromosome defects, all metaphases abnormal, double or complex chromosome defects (C23), and a Bournemouth score of 2, 3, or 4 (B234). In the multivariate approach, B234 and C23 proved to be significantly associated with a reduction in the survival probability. The similarity of the regression coefficients associated with these two factors means that they have about the same weight. Consequently, the model was simplified by counting the number of factors (0, 1, or 2) present in each patient, thus generating a scoring system called the Lausanne-Bournemouth score (LB score). The LB score combines the well-recognized and easy-to-use Bournemouth score (B score) with the chromosome defect complexity, C23 constituting an additional indicator of patient outcome. The predicted risk of death within 18 months calculated from the model is as follows: 7.1% (confidence interval: 1.7-24.8) for patients with an LB score of 0, 60.1% (44.7-73.8) for an LB score of 1, and 96.8% (84.5-99.4) for an LB score of 2. The scoring system presented here has several interesting features. The LB score may improve the predictive value of the B score, as it is able to recognize two prognostic groups in the intermediate risk category of patients with B scores of 2 or 3. It has also the ability to identify two distinct prognostic subclasses among RAEB and possibly CMML patients. In addition to its above-described usefulness in the prognostic evaluation, the LB score may bring new insights into the understanding of evolution patterns in MDS. We used the combination of the B score and chromosome complexity to define four classes which may be considered four possible states of myelodysplasia and which describe two distinct evolutional pathways.

ROBETH: un logiciel pour les procédés statistiques robustes [ROBETH: a library for robust statistical procedures].

In the past 20 years the theory of robust estimation has become an important topic of mathematical statistics. We discuss here some basic concepts of this theory with the help of simple examples. Furthermore we describe a subroutine library for the application of robust statistical procedures, which was developed with the support of the Swiss National Science Foundation.

A-1 Monthly Public Assistance Statistical Report Family Investment Program, October 2009

A-1 - Monthly Public Assistance Statistical Report Family Investment Program

Pédiatrie 2. Génétique des épilepsies de l'enfant: Pour qui ? Comment? Pourquoi [Genetics of childhood epilepsies: for who? how? why?].

Recent advances in genetics led to significant improvement in the field of childhood epilepsies diagnosis and physiopathology. Genetic testing is indicated by geneticist who is himself guided by the pediatric neurological approach. In rare circumstance, genetic etiology affects the clinical management. Cost remains the main limitation. Those new genetic tools are the first step toward a better understanding of seizure mechanism and therefore more efficient treatments.

Crocidura cossyrensis Contoli, 1989 (Mammalia, Soridiae): karyotype, biochemical genetics and hybridization experiments

Crocidura cossyrensis Contoli, 1989 (Mammalia, Soricidae): karyotype, biochemical genetics and hybridization experiments. - The shrew Crocidura cossyrensis Contoli, 1989 from Pantelleria (I), a Mediterranean island 100 km south of Sicily and 70 km west from Tunisia, was investigated in order to understand its origin and its relationship with C. russula from Tunisia, Morocco and Switzerland. With the exception of a single heterozygote centric fusion, C. cossyrensis had a karyotype identical with that of C russula from Tunisia (2N = 42, NF = 70 to 72), but it differed from C russula from Morocco and Switzerland (2N = 42, NF = 60). The former have 5-6 pairs of chromosomes with small arms that are acrocentric in the latter. Genetic comparisons with allozyme data revealed small genetic distance (0.04) between C cossyrensis and C russula from Tunisia. In contrast, this eastern clade (Tunisia and Pantelleria) is separated from the western clade (Switzerland and Morocco) by a genetic distance of 0.14. A hybridization experiment between shrews from Pantelleria and Switzerland lead rapidly to an F1 generation. From 12 F1 hybrids that were backcrossed, females reproduced normally, but none of the males did so. Concluding from the results, C. cossyrensis from Pantelleria and C. russula cf. agilis from Tunisia belong to the same taxon that may have reached the differentiation of a biological species within the C. russula group. More geographic samples are needed to determine the definitive taxonomic positions of these shrews.

A-1 Monthly Public Assistance Statistical Report Family Investment Program, November 2009

A-1 - Monthly Public Assistance Statistical Report Family Investment Program

A-1 Monthly Public Assistance Statistical Report Family Investment Program, December 2009

A-1 - Monthly Public Assistance Statistical Report Family Investment Program