Strategic decision making in small businesses:implications for strategic flexibility and strategic adaptation

Strategic decision making (SDM) in a small business is an informal, highly personalised cognitive process which is emergent in nature. SDM determines the extent to which decision makers generate innovative decision-making options, and is therefore critical in order for small businesses to achieve strategic flexibility to enable strategic adaptation to turbulent environments. By examining SDM in small businesses, this research has the potential to address a major criticism of the extant literature in that it has been pre-occupied with measuring the formality of strategic planning and has neglected the informal, highly personalised and cognitive nature of strategic decision making in a small businesses.

The influence of patient's age on clinical decision-making about coronary heart disease in the USA and the UK

This paper examines UK and US primary care doctors' decision-making about older (aged 75 years) and midlife (aged 55 years) patients presenting with coronary heart disease (CHD). Using an analytic approach based on conceptualising clinical decision-making as a classification process, it explores the ways in which doctors' cognitive processes contribute to ageism in health-care at three key decision points during consultations. In each country, 56 randomly selected doctors were shown videotaped vignettes of actors portraying patients with CHD. The patients' ages (55 or 75 years), gender, ethnicity and social class were varied systematically. During the interviews, doctors gave free-recall accounts of their decision-making. The results do not establish that there was substantial ageism in the doctors' decisions, but rather suggest that diagnostic processes pay insufficient attention to the significance of older patients' age and its association with the likelihood of co-morbidity and atypical disease presentations. The doctors also demonstrated more limited use of 'knowledge structures' when diagnosing older than midlife patients. With respect to interventions, differences in the national health-care systems rather than patients' age accounted for the differences in doctors' decisions. US doctors were significantly more concerned about the potential for adverse outcomes if important diagnoses were untreated, while UK general practitioners cited greater difficulty in accessing diagnostic tests.

Understanding dynamics of strategic decision-making in venture creation:a process study of effectuation and causation

This study draws upon effectuation and causation as examples of planning-based and flexible decision-making logics, and investigates dynamics in the use of both logics. The study applies a longitudinal process research approach to investigate strategic decision-making in new venture creation over time. Combining qualitative and quantitative methods, we analyze 385 decision events across nine technology-based ventures. Our observations suggest a hybrid perspective on strategic decision-making, demonstrating how effectuation and causation logics are combined, and how entrepreneurs’ emphasis on these logics shifts and re-shifts over time. We induce a dynamic model which extends the literature on strategic decision-making in venture creation.

Electronic information sharing in local government authorities:factors influencing the decision-making process

Local Government Authorities (LGAs) are mainly characterised as information-intensive organisations. To satisfy their information requirements, effective information sharing within and among LGAs is necessary. Nevertheless, the dilemma of Inter-Organisational Information Sharing (IOIS) has been regarded as an inevitable issue for the public sector. Despite a decade of active research and practice, the field lacks a comprehensive framework to examine the factors influencing Electronic Information Sharing (EIS) among LGAs. The research presented in this paper contributes towards resolving this problem by developing a conceptual framework of factors influencing EIS in Government-to-Government (G2G) collaboration. By presenting this model, we attempt to clarify that EIS in LGAs is affected by a combination of environmental, organisational, business process, and technological factors and that it should not be scrutinised merely from a technical perspective. To validate the conceptual rationale, multiple case study based research strategy was selected. From an analysis of the empirical data from two case organisations, this paper exemplifies the importance (i.e. prioritisation) of these factors in influencing EIS by utilising the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) technique. The intent herein is to offer LGA decision-makers with a systematic decision-making process in realising the importance (i.e. from most important to least important) of EIS influential factors. This systematic process will also assist LGA decision-makers in better interpreting EIS and its underlying problems. The research reported herein should be of interest to both academics and practitioners who are involved in IOIS, in general, and collaborative e-Government, in particular. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effective decision making and problem solving in projects

Processing information and forming opinions pose special challenges when attempting to effectively manage the new or complex tasks that typically arise in projects. Based on research in organizational and social psychology, we introduce mechanisms and strategies for collective information processing which are important for forming opinions and handling information in projects.

Elemzés vagy megérzés: a stratégiai döntéshozatal gyakorlata Californiában és Magyarországon = Analysis or Intuition: Strategic decision making in California and Hungary

Stratégiai döntéseket jellemzően a vállalatok felsővezetői, vezérigazgatók és elnökök hoznak. Ennek szellemében 40 felsővezetőt kérdeztünk két nagyon különböző régióban (Kaliforniában és Magyarországon) egy összehasonlító kutatás keretében. A két országban tizenkét válaszadó vezérigazgató, elnök, alelnök, vagy felelős vezető volt (rájuk, mint Vezetőkre hivatkoztunk), miközben nyolcan alapítói és többségi tulajdonosai voltak saját vállalkozásuknak (őket nevezzük Vállalkozóknak). A kutatás három területre irányult: 1) Hogyan hoznak döntéseket a felsővezetők a valóságban a világ e két különböző táján; 2) Mennyiben különböznek - ha egyáltalán különböznek - a Vállalkozók és a Vezetők az alkalmazott döntéshozatali közelítésmódot tekintve, amikor az analitikus gondolkodást az intuícióikkal kombinálják; 3) Mik a hasonlóságok és a különbségek a menedzsment képességekben és a döntéshozatali rutinokban a Vállalkozók és a Vezetők között a vizsgált menedzsment kultúrákban. = Strategic decision making is usually conducted by a firm’s top management, led by the CEO or the President of the company. In keeping with this, 40 top level managers in two very different regions (California, USA and Hungary) were targeted in a comparative research study. In the two countries, twelve of the managers were CEOs, Presidents, Vice Presidents or Chief Officers (hereafter referred to as Executives) while eight were founders and majority owners of their own enterprises (hereafter referred to as Entrepreneurs). The research focused on the following 3 areas: 1) How top level managers really make strategic decisions in these two different parts of the world; 2) How Entrepreneurs and Executives differ, if at all, in their approach to strategic decision making when they combine analytical thinking with their intuition; 3) The similarities and differences in management skills and decision making routines between Entrepreneurs and Executives within the investigated management cultures.

Menedzsment képességek és döntéshozatali közelítésmódok longitudinális elemzése a versenyképesség kutatások alapján = Longitudinal analysis of management skills and decision making approaches in Competitiveness Research

Absztrakt: Tanulmányunkban a menedzsment képességek és döntéshozatali közelítésmódok szerepét a versenyképesség alakításában immáron negyedik alkalommal elemezzük. Hogy megértsük, milyen tulajdonságokkal, egyéni képességekkel kell a menedzsmentnek rendelkeznie ahhoz, hogy önmaga is versenyképes legyen, és feltárjuk, melyek a mintában szereplő menedzserek erősségei, illetve gyenge pontjai – a korábbi kutatások hagyományait követve – azt vizsgáltuk, hogy a mintában szereplő menedzserek hogyan értékelik önmagukat bizonyos készségek, képességek szerint, valamint azt is áttekintettük, hogy a menedzserek milyen döntéshozatali közelítésmódokat alkalmaznak. A megkérdezett menedzserekre - akárcsak a korábbi válaszadókra - a gyakorlatorientáltság, a magas szintű szakmai ismeretek birtoklása és a fejlett problémamegoldó képesség jellemző leginkább, illetve a nemzetközi trendekkel némiképp szemben a racionális döntéshozatali megközelítést preferálják. _____ We have been analyzing the role of management skills and decision making approaches in firm level competitiveness for the fourth time already. In order to understand what characteristics and individual capabilities a manager must have to be competitive him/herself, and what the main strengths and weaknesses of the Hungarian managers are, following the methodologies of our earlier studies, self assessment of the skills and capabilities of the managers in our sample were examined. The managers – similarly to the earlier results – are practice oriented, they possess up-to-date professional knowledge, and they have good problem solving skills. Our findings demonstrate that they prefer rational decision making approaches, which contradicts to the international tendencies.

Racionális és intuitív döntéshozók Kaliforniában és Magyarországon (Analysis or Intuition – Strategic decision making in California and Hungary)

Stratégiai döntéseket jellemzően a vállalatok felső vezetői, vezérigazgatók és elnökök hoznak. Ennek szellemében a szerző negyven felső vezetőt kérdezett meg két nagyon különböző régióban (Kaliforniában és Magyarországon) egy összehasonlító kutatás keretében. A két országban tizenkét válaszadó vezérigazgató, elnök, alelnök vagy felelős vezető volt (rájuk mint Vezetőkre hivatkoztunk), miközben nyolcan alapítói és többségi tulajdonosai voltak saját vállalkozásuknak (őket nevezzük Vállalkozóknak). A kutatás három területre irányult: 1) Hogyan hoznak döntéseket a felső vezetők a valóságban a világ e két különböző táján 2) Mennyiben különböznek – ha egyáltalán különböznek – a Vállalkozók és a Vezetők az alkalmazott döntéshozatali közelítésmódot tekintve, amikor az analitikus gondolkodást az intuícióikkal kombinálják 3) Mik a hasonlóságok és a különbségek a menedzsmentképességekben és a döntéshozatali rutinokban a Vállalkozók és a Vezetők között a vizsgált menedzsmentkultúrákban? ______ Strategic decision making is usually conducted by a firm’s top management, led by the CEO or the President of the company. In keeping with this, 40 top level managers in two very different regions (California, USA and Hungary) were targeted in a comparative research study. In the two countries, twelve of the managers were CEOs, Presidents, Vice Presidents or Chief Officers (hereafter referred to as Executives) while eight were founders and majority owners of their own enterprises (hereafter referred to as Entrepreneurs). The research focused on the following 3 areas: 1) How top level managers really make strategic decisions in these two different parts of the world; 2) How Entrepreneurs and Executives differ, if at all, in their approach to strategic decision making when they combine analytical thinking with their intuition; 3) The similarities and differences in management skills and decision making routines between Entrepreneurs and Executives within the investigated management cultures.

Analysis and intuition in strategic decision making. The case of California

Many management scholars believe that the process used to make strategic decisions affects the quality of those decisions. However several authors have observed a lack of research on the strategic decision making process. Empirical tests of factors that have been hypothesized to affect the way strategic decisions are made notably are absent. (Fredrickson, 1985) This paper reports the results of a study that attempts to assess the effects of decision making circumstances focusing mainly on the approaches applied and the managerial skills and capabilities the decision makers built on during concrete strategic decision making procedures. The study was conducted in California between September 2005 and June 2006 and it was sponsored by a Fulbright Research Scholarship Grant.

The role of exploration and critical decision making and problem solving in making life choices

Although the literature on the types of abilities and processes that contribute to identity formation has been growing, the research has been mainly descriptive/correlational. This dissertation conducted an experimental investigation of the role of two theoretically distinct processes (exploration and critical problem solving) in identity formation, one of the first to be reported. The experimental training design (pre-post, training versus control) used in this study was intended to promote identity development by fostering an increase in the use of exploration and critical problem solving with respect to making life choices. Participants included 53 psychology students from a large urban university randomly assigned to each group. The most theoretically significant finding was that the intervention was successful in inducing change in the ability to use critical skills in resolving life decisions, as well as effecting a positive change in identity status. ^

Essays in environmental economic valuation and decision making in the presence of an environmental disaster

The first essay developed a respondent model of Bayesian updating for a double-bound dichotomous choice (DB-DC) contingent valuation methodology. I demonstrated by way of data simulations that current DB-DC identifications of true willingness-to-pay (WTP) may often fail given this respondent Bayesian updating context. Further simulations demonstrated that a simple extension of current DB-DC identifications derived explicitly from the Bayesian updating behavioral model can correct for much of the WTP bias. Additional results provided caution to viewing respondents as acting strategically toward the second bid. Finally, an empirical application confirmed the simulation outcomes. The second essay applied a hedonic property value model to a unique water quality (WQ) dataset for a year-round, urban, and coastal housing market in South Florida, and found evidence that various WQ measures affect waterfront housing prices in this setting. However, the results indicated that this relationship is not consistent across any of the six particular WQ variables used, and is furthermore dependent upon the specific descriptive statistic employed to represent the WQ measure in the empirical analysis. These results continue to underscore the need to better understand both the WQ measure and its statistical form homebuyers use in making their purchase decision. The third essay addressed a limitation to existing hurricane evacuation modeling aspects by developing a dynamic model of hurricane evacuation behavior. A household's evacuation decision was framed as an optimal stopping problem where every potential evacuation time period prior to the actual hurricane landfall, the household's optimal choice is to either evacuate, or to wait one more time period for a revised hurricane forecast. A hypothetical two-period model of evacuation and a realistic multi-period model of evacuation that incorporates actual forecast and evacuation cost data for my designated Gulf of Mexico region were developed for the dynamic analysis. Results from the multi-period model were calibrated with existing evacuation timing data from a number of hurricanes. Given the calibrated dynamic framework, a number of policy questions that plausibly affect the timing of household evacuations were analyzed, and a deeper understanding of existing empirical outcomes in regard to the timing of the evacuation decision was achieved.

Age differences and conformity in juror decision -making

The purpose of this experiment was to investigate whether older adults conform more than young and middle-aged adults on a juror decision making task. Degree of group pressure, personality characteristics, gender, and social influence processes were also examined.^ Registered voters (208 participants) completed a personality questionnaire. Several weeks later, groups of six participants listened to a robbery case that portrayed the defendant as guilty. Afterwards, participants completed the first of two ballots. On the first, participants rated the defendant's degree of guilt and scored their degree of certainty in this verdict rating. They also indicated in writing which piece of information (a statement of evidence) from the robbery case supported their verdict ratings. Next, participants reviewed photocopies of five contrived first ballots. Then participants completed second ballots, in which they again rated the defendant's degree of guilt and scored their degree of certainty in this verdict rating. Finally, participants rated the importance of the five contrived first ballot verdict ratings (normative social influence) and statements of evidence (informational social influence) in reaching their second ballot verdict ratings.^ The results demonstrated that not only did older adults conform as expected, but all age groups conformed; that is, all age groups changed their verdict ratings. After reviewing the other jurors' contrived first ballots (group pressure), participants rated the defendant as less guilty on their second ballot than on their first. However, only older adults significantly changed their level of certainty in their verdict ratings from first to second ballot compared to young and middle-aged adults. With regard to personality characteristics, only rigidity predicted conformity in young and middle-aged adults but not in older adults. It was also found that females conformed more than males. Finally, all three age groups reported that different social influence processes (normative vs. informational) were important in reaching their second ballot verdict ratings. The results of this research indicate that various factors can influence young, middle-aged, and older adults as they reach verdicts. Knowledge of these factors may help alter stereotypes of older adults in terms of conformity, rigidity, and desirability as jurors. ^

The role of overseas Chinese investment in the emerging countries of Southeast and East Asia: A Confucian model of the foreign direct investment decision-making process using factors unconsidered in the West

The purpose of this study was to gain a better understanding of the foreign direct investment location decision making process through the examination of non-Western investors and their investment strategies in non-traditional markets. This was accomplished through in-depth personal interviews with 50 Overseas Chinese business owners and executives in several different industries from Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, Malaysia, and Thailand about 97 separate investment projects in Southeast and East Asia, including The Philippines, Malaysia, Hong Kong, Singapore, Vietnam, India, Pakistan, South Korea, Australia, Indonesia, Cambodia, Thailand, Burma, Taiwan, and Mainland China.^ Traditional factors utilized in Western models of the foreign direct investment decision making process are reviewed, as well as literature on Asian management systems and the current state of business practices in emerging countries of Southeast and East Asia. Because of the lack of institutionalization in these markets and the strong influences of Confucian and patriarchal value systems on the Overseas Chinese, it was suspected that while some aspects of Western rational economic models of foreign direct investment are utilized, these models are insufficient in this context, and thus are not fully generalizable to the unique conditions of the Overseas Chinese business network in the region without further modification.^ Thus, other factors based on a Confucian value system need to be integrated into these models. Results from the analysis of structured interviews suggest Overseas Chinese businesses rely more heavily on their network and traditional Confucian values than rational economic factors when making their foreign direct investment location decisions in emerging countries in Asia. This effect is moderated by the firm's industry and the age of the firm's owners. ^

Examining moderators of the hindsight bias in the context of civil legal decision -making: Counterfactuals, causal proximity, and self -referencing

The current research sought to clarify the diverging relationships between counterfactual thinking and hindsight bias observed in the literature thus far. In a non-legal context, Roese and Olson (1996) found a positive relationship between counterfactuals and hindsight bias, such that counterfactual mutations that undid the outcome also increased participants’ ratings of the outcome’s a priori likelihood. Further, they determined that this relationship is mediated by causal attributions about the counterfactually mutated antecedent event. Conversely, in the context of a civil lawsuit, Robbennolt and Sobus (1997) found that the relationship between counterfactual thinking and hindsight bias is negative. The current research sought to resolve the conflicting findings in the literature within a legal context. ^ In Experiment One, the manipulation of the normality of the defendant’s target behavior, designed to manipulate participants’ counterfactual thoughts about said behavior, did moderate the hindsight effect of outcome knowledge on mock jurors’ judgments of the foreseeability of that outcome as well as their negligence verdicts. Although I predicted that counterfactual thinking would increase, or exacerbate, the hindsight bias, as found by Roese and Olson (1996), my results provided some support for Robbenolt and Sobus’s (1997) finding that counterfactual thinking decreases the hindsight bias. Behavior normality did not moderate the hindsight effect of outcome knowledge in Experiment Two, nor did causal proximity in Experiment Three. ^ Additionally, my hypothesis that self-referencing may be an effective hindsight debiasing technique received little support across the three experiments. Although both the self-referencing instructions and self-report measure consistently decreased mock jurors’ likelihood of finding the defendant negligent, and self-referencing instructions decreased their foreseeability ratings in studies two and three, the self-referencing manipulation did not interact with outcome knowledge to moderate a hindsight bias effect on either foreseeability or negligence judgments. The consistent pattern of results across the three experiments, however, suggests that self-referencing may be an effective technique in reducing the likelihood of negligence verdicts.^

Essays in Environmental Economic Valuation and Decision Making in the Presence of an Environmental Disaster

The first essay developed a respondent model of Bayesian updating for a double-bound dichotomous choice (DB-DC) contingent valuation methodology. I demonstrated by way of data simulations that current DB-DC identifications of true willingness-to-pay (WTP) may often fail given this respondent Bayesian updating context. Further simulations demonstrated that a simple extension of current DB-DC identifications derived explicitly from the Bayesian updating behavioral model can correct for much of the WTP bias. Additional results provided caution to viewing respondents as acting strategically toward the second bid. Finally, an empirical application confirmed the simulation outcomes. The second essay applied a hedonic property value model to a unique water quality (WQ) dataset for a year-round, urban, and coastal housing market in South Florida, and found evidence that various WQ measures affect waterfront housing prices in this setting. However, the results indicated that this relationship is not consistent across any of the six particular WQ variables used, and is furthermore dependent upon the specific descriptive statistic employed to represent the WQ measure in the empirical analysis. These results continue to underscore the need to better understand both the WQ measure and its statistical form homebuyers use in making their purchase decision. The third essay addressed a limitation to existing hurricane evacuation modeling aspects by developing a dynamic model of hurricane evacuation behavior. A household’s evacuation decision was framed as an optimal stopping problem where every potential evacuation time period prior to the actual hurricane landfall, the household’s optimal choice is to either evacuate, or to wait one more time period for a revised hurricane forecast. A hypothetical two-period model of evacuation and a realistic multi-period model of evacuation that incorporates actual forecast and evacuation cost data for my designated Gulf of Mexico region were developed for the dynamic analysis. Results from the multi-period model were calibrated with existing evacuation timing data from a number of hurricanes. Given the calibrated dynamic framework, a number of policy questions that plausibly affect the timing of household evacuations were analyzed, and a deeper understanding of existing empirical outcomes in regard to the timing of the evacuation decision was achieved.