Modelagem da distribuição geográfica atual e futura de Guerlinguetus (Rodentia, Sciuridae) no Brasil

O gênero Guerlinguetus, pertencente à família Sciuridae, possui sete espécies existentes no Brasil. Essas espécies têm sido tratadas como sinônimos de Sciurus aestuans, mas foram distinguidas em um gênero próprio com base nas revisões taxonômicas mais abrangentes disponíveis até recentemente. Apesar disso, pouco há na literatura sobre a distribuição das espécies desse gênero no Brasil e nenhuma pesquisa visando o conhecimento de sua distribuição futura havia sido realizada. A modelagem de distribuição potencial de espécies tem se tornado um componente importante dos planos de conservação e uma grande quantidade de técnicas têm sido desenvolvidas com esta finalidade. Ela pode ser uma ferramenta importante para determinar o grau de ameaça principalmente em espécies ou grupos com poucas informações disponíveis sobre sua distribuição. Com isso, o objetivo do presente trabalho foi verificar a influência das possíveis mudanças climáticas na distribuição das espécies de Guerlinguetus no Brasil, através da modelagem potencial das distribuições atual e futura dessas espécies. Para isso foram utilizados dados climáticos e topográficos e o cenário pessimista de emissão de CO2 (A2) para o ano 2070, do Modelo de Circulação Geral CSIRO, com base no quarto relatório do Painel Intergovernamental de Mudanças Climáticas. Os modelos gerados apresentaram perda significativa de áreas consideradas ambientalmente adequadas, do modelo de distribuição atual para o modelo de distribuição futura para as espécies de Guerlinguetus, com exceção de G. aestuans. Apesar da expansão da região potencial de distribuição de G. aestuans para o ano de 2070, a média dos valores de adequabilidade ambiental diminuiu em relação ao modelo de distribuição atual. A localização dessas espécies de hábito arborícola em áreas geograficamente espalhadas dentro da Amazônia, Cerrado e Mata Atlântica é preocupante, devido a grande perda de área original desses biomas, tornando possível a hipótese de ameaça à sobrevivência das espécies devido a mudanças ambientais futuras.

Two-way MANCOVA: an application to public health

The aim of this work is to use the MANCOVA model to study the influence of the phenotype of an enzyme - Acid phosphatase - and a genetic factor - Haptoglobin genotype - on two dependent variables - Activity of Acid Phosphatase (ACP1) and the Body Mass Index (BMI). Therefore it's used a general linear model, namely a multivariate analysis of covariance (Two-way MANCOVA). The covariate is the age of the subject. This covariate works as control variable for the independent factors, serving to reduce the error term in the model. The main results showed that only the ACP1 phenotype has a significant effect on the activity of ACP1 and the covariate has a significant effect in both dependent variables. The univariate analysis showed that ACP1 phenotype accounts for about 12.5% of the variability in the activity of ACP1. In respect to this covariate it can be seen that accounts for about 4.6% of the variability in the activity of ACP1 and 37.3% in the BMI.

The importance of physical education classes in pre-school children

The purpose of this study was to analyse differences between total physical activity (TPA) and moderate-to-vigorous PA (MVPA) of pre-school children during daily school hours when they attended the physical education class (PED) and school days without PE class (NPED) and to assess the contribution of PE classes to TPA in school hours. The sample was composed of 193 pre-school healthy children (96 girls) aged from three to five years old and was conducted between February and December of 2008. Children wore accelerometers for at least four consecutive days during school hours. Data were analysed with specific software, age-specific counts-per-minute cut-off points and a 5 s epoch were used. Independent and general linear model repeated measures were used to assess differences between gender and differences between different days within each gender, respectively. Boys engaged more MVPA than girls (P < 0.05). During PED, pre-school children engaged significantly more in TPA and MVPA than during NPED (P < 0.05). PE class contributed, on average, 27.7% for the TPA and 32.8% of daily MVPA during PED in both gender. The results of this study suggest that structured PA such as a PE class increased the daily TPA and MVPA level of pre-school children.

Past/present and future worries: na fMRI study

For the past decade, numerous imaging techniques gave rise to remarka-ble progresses in the understanding of brain’s structure and function. Amongst the wide variety of studies onto the field of neuroscience, neuropsychiatric re-searches with resource to neuroimaging have attracted increasing attention. The present study will focus on the identification of brain areas recruited while normative subjects read sentences related to past/present or future wor-ries. Our main aim was to accurately characterize these brain areas while providing them with a time-stamp that would hopefully help us understand the implications of past/present memories and future envisioning in worrying episodes. With that purpose, functional magnetic resonance imaging data was collected from ten healthy individuals. The obtained data was processed and statistically treated using the General Linear Model and both Fixed and Ran-dom Effects Analysis for group-level results. Thereafter, a Multi-Voxel Pattern Analysis with Searchlight Mapping was performed in order to find patterns of activation that allow differentiation between conditions. The obtained results indicate higher brain activation while reading sen-tences related to past/present worries when compared to future worry or neu-tral sentences. The main areas include frontal cortex, posterior parietal, occipital and temporal areas. Worrying, per se, was characterized by activation of the medial posterior parietal cortex, left posterior occipital lobe and left central temporal lobe. With the searchlight mapping approach we were able to further identify patterns of distinction between conditions, which were located in the parietal, limbic and frontal lobes.

Simulation of humidity fields in concrete: experimental validation and parameter estimation

The moisture content in concrete structures has an important influence in their behavior and performance. Several vali-dated numerical approaches adopt the governing equation for relative humidity fields proposed in Model Code 1990/2010. Nevertheless there is no integrative study which addresses the choice of parameters for the simulation of the humidity diffusion phenomenon, particularly in concern to the range of parameters forwarded by Model Code 1990/2010. A software based on a Finite Difference Method Algorithm (1D and axisymmetric cases) is used to perform sensitivity analyses on the main parameters in a normal strength concrete. Then, based on the conclusions of the sensi-tivity analyses, experimental results from nine different concrete compositions are analyzed. The software is used to identify the main material parameters that better fit the experimental data. In general, the model was able to satisfactory fit the experimental results and new correlations were proposed, particularly focusing on the boundary transfer coeffi-cient.

Bidding at sequential first-price auctions with(out) supply uncertainty: a laboratory analysis

We report on a series of experiments that test the effects of an uncertain supply on the formation of bids and prices in sequential first-price auctions with private-independent values and unit-demands. Supply is assumed uncertain when buyers do not know the exact number of units to be sold (i.e., the length of the sequence). Although we observe a non-monotone behavior when supply is certain and an important overbidding, the data qualitatively support our price trend predictions and the risk neutral Nash equilibrium model of bidding for the last stage of a sequence, whether supply is certain or not. Our study shows that behavior in these markets changes significantly with the presence of an uncertain supply, and that it can be explained by assuming that bidders formulate pessimistic beliefs about the occurrence of another stage.

Structural inferences from first-price auction experiments

We use structural methods to assess equilibrium models of bidding with data from first-price auction experiments. We identify conditions to test the Nash equilibrium models for homogenous and for heterogeneous constant relative risk aversion when bidders private valuations are independent and uniformly drawn. The outcomes of our study indicate that behavior may have been affected by the procedure used to conduct the experiments and that the usual Nash equilibrium model for heterogeneous constant relative risk averse bidders does not consistently explain the observed overbidding. From an empirical standpoint, our analysis shows the possible drawbacks of overlooking the homogeneity hypothesis when testing symmetric equilibrium models of bidding and it puts in perspective the sensitivity of structural inferences to the available information.

Payoff-dependent balancedness and cores (revised version)

We prove the non-emptiness of the core of an NTU game satisfying a condition of payoff-dependent balancedness, based on transfer rate mappings. We also define a new equilibrium condition on transfer rates and we prove the existence of core payoff vectors satisfying this condition. The additional requirement of transfer rate equilibrium refines the core concept and allows the selection of specific core payoff vectors. Lastly, the class of parametrized cooperative games is introduced. This new setting and its associated equilibrium-core solution extend the usual cooperative game framework and core solution to situations depending on an exogenous environment. A non-emptiness result for the equilibrium-core is also provided in the context of a parametrized cooperative game. Our proofs borrow mathematical tools and geometric constructions from general equilibrium theory with non convexities. Applications to extant results taken from game theory and economic theory are given.

On Identification of Bayesian DSGE Models

In recent years there has been increasing concern about the identification of parameters in dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. Given the structure of DSGE models it may be difficult to determine whether a parameter is identified. For the researcher using Bayesian methods, a lack of identification may not be evident since the posterior of a parameter of interest may differ from its prior even if the parameter is unidentified. We show that this can even be the case even if the priors assumed on the structural parameters are independent. We suggest two Bayesian identification indicators that do not suffer from this difficulty and are relatively easy to compute. The first applies to DSGE models where the parameters can be partitioned into those that are known to be identified and the rest where it is not known whether they are identified. In such cases the marginal posterior of an unidentified parameter will equal the posterior expectation of the prior for that parameter conditional on the identified parameters. The second indicator is more generally applicable and considers the rate at which the posterior precision gets updated as the sample size (T) is increased. For identified parameters the posterior precision rises with T, whilst for an unidentified parameter its posterior precision may be updated but its rate of update will be slower than T. This result assumes that the identified parameters are pT-consistent, but similar differential rates of updates for identified and unidentified parameters can be established in the case of super consistent estimators. These results are illustrated by means of simple DSGE models.

Revealed cardinal preference

I prove that as long as we allow the marginal utility for money (lambda) to vary between purchases (similarly to the budget) then the quasi-linear and the ordinal budget-constrained models rationalize the same data. However, we know that lambda is approximately constant. I provide a simple constructive proof for the necessary and sufficient condition for the constant lambda rationalization, which I argue should replace the Generalized Axiom of Revealed Preference in empirical studies of consumer behavior. 'Go Cardinals!' It is the minimal requirement of any scientifi c theory that it is consistent with the data it is trying to explain. In the case of (Hicksian) consumer theory it was revealed preference -introduced by Samuelson (1938,1948) - that provided an empirical test to satisfy this need. At that time most of economic reasoning was done in terms of a competitive general equilibrium, a concept abstract enough so that it can be built on the ordinal preferences over baskets of goods - even if the extremely specialized ones of Arrow and Debreu. However, starting in the sixties, economics has moved beyond the 'invisible hand' explanation of how -even competitive- markets operate. A seemingly unavoidable step of this 'revolution' was that ever since, most economic research has been carried out in a partial equilibrium context. Now, the partial equilibrium approach does not mean that the rest of the markets are ignored, rather that they are held constant. In other words, there is a special commodity -call it money - that reflects the trade-offs of moving purchasing power across markets. As a result, the basic building block of consumer behavior in partial equilibrium is no longer the consumer's preferences over goods, rather her valuation of them, in terms of money. This new paradigm necessitates a new theory of revealed preference.

Comparative Statics of Asset Prices: the effect of other assets' risk

Currently, financial economics is unable to predict changes in asset prices with respect to changes in the underlying risk factors, even when an asset's dividend is independent of a given factor. This paper takes steps towards addressing this issue by highlighting a crucial component of wealth effects on asset prices hitherto ignored by the literature. Changes in wealth do not only alter an agents risk aversion, but also her perceived 'riskiness' of a security. The latter enhances significantly the extent to which market- clearing leads to endogenously-generated correlation across asset prices, over and above that induced by correlation between payoffs, giving the appearance of 'contagion.'

How much does a single graduation cohort from further education colleges contribute to an open regional economy?

Econometric analysis has been inconclusive in determining the contribution that increased skills have on macroeconomic performance whilst conventional growth accounting approaches to the same problem rest on restrictive assumptions. We propose an alternative micro-to-macro method which combines elements of growth accounting and numerical general equilibrium modelling. The usefulness of this approach for applied education policy analysis is demonstrated by evaluating the macroeconomic impact on the Scottish economy of a single graduation cohort from further education colleges. We find the macroeconomic impact to be significant. From a policy point of view this supports a revival of interest in the conventional teaching role of education institutions.

Unemployment and Endogenous Reallocation over the Business Cycle

This paper studies unemployed workers’ decisions to change occupations, and their impact on fluctuations in aggregate unemployment and its underlying duration distribution. We develop an analytically and computationally tractable stochastic equilibrium model with heterogenous labor markets. In this model three different types of unemployment arise: search, rest and reallocation unemployment. We document new evidence on unemployed workers’ gross occupational mobility and use it to calibrate the model. We show that rest unemployment is the main driver of unemployment fluctuations over the business cycle and causes cyclical unemployment to be highly volatile. The resulting unemployment duration distribution generated by the model responds realistically to the business cycle, creating substantial longer-term unemployment in downturns. Finally, rest unemployment also makes our model simultaneously consistent with procyclical occupational mobility of the unemployed, countercyclical job separations into unemployment and a negatively-sloped Beveridge curve.

Rethinking economy-wide rebound measures: an unbiased proposal

In spite of having been first introduced in the last half of the ninetieth century, the debate about the possible rebound effects from energy efficiency improvements is still an open question in the economic literature. This paper contributes to the existing research on this issue proposing an unbiased measure for economy-wide rebound effects. The novelty of this economy-wide rebound measure stems from the fact that not only actual energy savings but also potential energy savings are quantified under general equilibrium conditions. Our findings indicate that the use of engineering savings instead of general equilibrium potential savings downward biases economy-wide rebound effects and upward-biases backfire effects. The discrepancies between the traditional indicator and our proposed measure are analysed in the context of the Spanish economy.