Using common features to understand the behavior of metal-commodity prices and forecast them at different horizons

The objective of this article is to study (understand and forecast) spot metal price levels and changes at monthly, quarterly, and annual horizons. The data to be used consists of metal-commodity prices in a monthly frequency from 1957 to 2012 from the International Financial Statistics of the IMF on individual metal series. We will also employ the (relatively large) list of co-variates used in Welch and Goyal (2008) and in Hong and Yogo (2009) , which are available for download. Regarding short- and long-run comovement, we will apply the techniques and the tests proposed in the common-feature literature to build parsimonious VARs, which possibly entail quasi-structural relationships between different commodity prices and/or between a given commodity price and its potential demand determinants. These parsimonious VARs will be later used as forecasting models to be combined to yield metal-commodity prices optimal forecasts. Regarding out-of-sample forecasts, we will use a variety of models (linear and non-linear, single equation and multivariate) and a variety of co-variates to forecast the returns and prices of metal commodities. With the forecasts of a large number of models (N large) and a large number of time periods (T large), we will apply the techniques put forth by the common-feature literature on forecast combinations. The main contribution of this paper is to understand the short-run dynamics of metal prices. We show theoretically that there must be a positive correlation between metal-price variation and industrial-production variation if metal supply is held fixed in the short run when demand is optimally chosen taking into account optimal production for the industrial sector. This is simply a consequence of the derived-demand model for cost-minimizing firms. Our empirical evidence fully supports this theoretical result, with overwhelming evidence that cycles in metal prices are synchronized with those in industrial production. This evidence is stronger regarding the global economy but holds as well for the U.S. economy to a lesser degree. Regarding forecasting, we show that models incorporating (short-run) commoncycle restrictions perform better than unrestricted models, with an important role for industrial production as a predictor for metal-price variation. Still, in most cases, forecast combination techniques outperform individual models.

Using common features to understand the behavior of metal-commodity prices and forecast them at different horizons

The objective of this article is to study (understand and forecast) spot metal price levels and changes at monthly, quarterly, and annual frequencies. Data consists of metal-commodity prices at a monthly and quarterly frequencies from 1957 to 2012, extracted from the IFS, and annual data, provided from 1900-2010 by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). We also employ the (relatively large) list of co-variates used in Welch and Goyal (2008) and in Hong and Yogo (2009). We investigate short- and long-run comovement by applying the techniques and the tests proposed in the common-feature literature. One of the main contributions of this paper is to understand the short-run dynamics of metal prices. We show theoretically that there must be a positive correlation between metal-price variation and industrial-production variation if metal supply is held fixed in the short run when demand is optimally chosen taking into account optimal production for the industrial sector. This is simply a consequence of the derived-demand model for cost-minimizing firms. Our empirical evidence fully supports this theoretical result, with overwhelming evidence that cycles in metal prices are synchronized with those in industrial production. This evidence is stronger regarding the global economy but holds as well for the U.S. economy to a lesser degree. Regarding out-of-sample forecasts, our main contribution is to show the benefits of forecast-combination techniques, which outperform individual-model forecasts - including the random-walk model. We use a variety of models (linear and non-linear, single equation and multivariate) and a variety of co-variates and functional forms to forecast the returns and prices of metal commodities. Using a large number of models (N large) and a large number of time periods (T large), we apply the techniques put forth by the common-feature literature on forecast combinations. Empirically, we show that models incorporating (short-run) common-cycle restrictions perform better than unrestricted models, with an important role for industrial production as a predictor for metal-price variation.

International integration and long- run persistence of the GNP distribution

We use the Ramsey model of g,Towth elaborated by Bliss [1995] and Ventlira [1997] to show how international integration results in long-nm persistellce Df GNPs distribution, while allowing, under certain conditions on parameters, for convergellce during the transition. First, we pi·ovide relationships which explicitly relate, in the neighborhood of the steady-state, the magnitude of conditional convergence or divergence to the fundamentaIs of the economies. Second, we present ali analysis of the Cobb Douglas case with a broad dass of utility functions and show that there is always transitional convergenee with this technology. Third, directions for testing the Illodel against the traditional dosed-ecollomy setting are proposed. These lead to adding specific and world-wide regTessors to traditional growth regressions.

Essays in applied econometrics

Using a unique dataset on Brazilian nominal and real yield curves combined with daily survey forecasts of macroeconomic variables such as GDP growth, inflation, and exchange rate movements, we identify the effect of surprises to the Brazilian interbank target rate on expected future nominal and real short rates, term premia, and inflation expectations. We find that positive surprises to target rates lead to higher expected nominal and real interest rates and reduced nominal and inflation term premia. We also find a strongly positive relation between both real and nominal term premia and measures of dispersion in survey forecasts. Uncertainty about future exchange rates is a particularly important driver of variations in Brazilian term premia.

Fractal correlation of heart rate variability in obese children

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Time course of training-induced microcirculatory changes and of vegf expression in skeletal muscles of spontaneously hypertensive female rats

Exercise-induced vessel changes modulate arterial pressure (AP) in male spontaneously hypertensive rats (SHR). Vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) is important for angiogenesis of skeletal muscle. The present study evaluated the time course of VEGF and angiogenesis after short- and long-term exercise training of female SHR and Wistar Kyoto (WKY) rats, 8-9 weeks (200-250 g). Rats were allocated to daily training or remained sedentary for 3 days (N = 23) or 13 weeks (N = 23). After training, the carotid artery was catheterized for AP measurements. Locomotor (tibialis anterior and gracilis) and non-locomotor skeletal muscles (temporalis) were harvested and prepared for histologic and protein expression analyses. Training increased treadmill performance by all groups (SHR = 28%, WKY = 64%, 3 days) and (SHR = 141%, WKY = 122%, 13 weeks). SHR had higher values of AP than WKY (174 ± 4 vs 111 ± 2 mmHg) that were not altered by training. Three days of running increased VEGF expression (SHR = 28%, WKY = 36%) simultaneously with an increase in capillary-to-fiber ratio in gracilis muscle (SHR = 19%, WKY = 15%). In contrast, 13 weeks of training increased gracilis capillary-to-fiber ratio (SHR = 18%, WKY = 19%), without simultaneous changes in VEGF expression. Training did not change VEGF expression and capillarity of temporalis muscle. We conclude that training stimulates time- and tissue-dependent VEGF protein expression, independent of pressure levels. VEGF triggers angiogenesis in locomotor skeletal muscle shortly after the exercise starts, but is not involved in the maintenance of capillarity after long-term exercise in female rats.

Aberrant crypt foci and colon cancer: comparison between a short- and medium-term bioassay for colon carcinogenesis using dimethylhydrazine in Wistar rats

Aberrant crypt foci (ACF) in the colon of carcinogen-treated rodents are considered to be the earliest hallmark of colon carcinogenesis. In the present study the relationship between a short-term (4 weeks) and medium-term (30 weeks) assay was assessed in a model of colon carcinogenesis induced by dimethylhydrazine (DMH) in the rat. Six-week-old male Wistar rats were given subcutaneous injections of DMH (40 mg/kg) twice a week for 2 weeks and killed at the end of the 4th or 30th week. ACF were scored for number, distribution pattern along the colon and crypt multiplicity in 0.1% methylene-blue whole-mount preparations. ACF were distinguished from normal crypts by their larger size and elliptical shape. The incidence, distribution and morphology of colon tumors were recorded. The majority of ACF were present in the middle and distal colon of DMH-treated rats and their number increased with time. By the 4th week, 91.5% ACF were composed of one or two crypts and 8.5% had three or more crypts, while by the 30th week 46.9% ACF had three or more crypts. Thus, a progression of ACF consisting of multiple crypts was observed from the 4th to the 30th week. Nine well-differentiated adenocarcinomas were found in 10 rats by the 30th week. Seven tumors were located in the distal colon and two in the middle colon. No tumor was found in the proximal colon. The present data indicate that induction of ACF by DMH in the short-term (4 weeks) assay was correlated with development of well-differentiated adenocarcinomas in the medium-term (30 weeks) assay.

A new short and simple health-related quality of life measurement for paediatric rheumatic diseases: initial validation in juvenile idiopathic arthritis

Objective. To develop and validate a new short and simple measure of health-related quality of life (HRQL) in children with juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA).Methods. The Paediatric Rheumatology Quality of Life Scale (PRQL) is a 10-item questionnaire that explores HRQL in two domains: physical health (PhH) and psychosocial health (PsH). Validation of the parent proxy report and child self-report versions of the instrument was accomplished by evaluating 472 JIA patients and similar to 800 healthy children. Validation analyses included assessment of feasibility, face and content validity; construct and discriminative ability; internal structure and consistency; test-retest reliability; responsiveness to clinical change; and minimal clinically important difference.Results. The PRQL was found to be feasible and to possess both face and content validity. The PRQL score correlated in the predicted range with most of the other JIA outcome measures, thereby demonstrating good construct validity, and discriminated well between different levels of disease severity. Assessment of internal structure (factor analysis) revealed that the PhH and PsH subscales identify two unambiguously separated domains. The internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha) was 0.86. The intraclass correlation coefficient for test-retest reliability was 0.91. The PRQL revealed fair responsiveness, with a standardized response mean of 0.67 in improved patients. Overall, the PRQL appeared to be more able to capture physical HRQL than psychosocial HRQL.Conclusion. The PRQL was found to possess good measurement properties and is, therefore, a valid instrument for the assessment of HRQL in children with JIA. This tool is primarily proposed for use in standard clinical care.

Nitric oxide and L-type calcium channel influences the changes in arterial blood pressure and heart rate induced by central angiotesin II

We study the voltage dependent calcium channels and nitric oxide involvement in angiotensin II-induced pressor effect. The antipressor action of L-Type calcium channel antagonist, nifedipine, has been studied when it was injected into the third ventricle prior to angiotensin II. The influence of nitric oxide on nifedipine antipressor action has also been studied by utilizing N(W)-nitro-L-arginine methyl ester (LNAME) (40 mu g/0.2 mu l) a nitric oxide synthase inhibitor and L-arginine ( 20 mu g/0.2 mu l), a nitric oxide donor agent. Adult male Holtzman rats weighting 200-250 g, with cannulae implanted into the third ventricle were injected with angiotensin II. Angiotensin II produced an elevation in mean arterial pressure and a decreased in heart rate. Such effects were potentiated by the prior injection of LNAME. L-arginine and nifedipine blocked the effects of angiotensin II. These data showed the involvement of L-Type calcium channel and a free radical gas nitric oxide in the central control of angiotensin II-induced pressor effect. This suggested that L-Type calcium channel of the circunventricular structures of central nervous system participated in both short and long term neuronal actions of ANG II with the influence of nitrergic system.

Hardness of heat-polymerized acrylic resins after disinfection and long-term water immersion

Statement of the problem. In selecting a disinfectant for dental prostheses, compatibility between the disinfectant and the type of denture base material must be considered to avoid adverse effects on the hardness of the acrylic resin.Purpose. This study investigated the hardness of 2 denture base resins after disinfection and long-term water immersion.Material and methods. Thirty-two disk-shaped specimens (13 mm in diameter and 8 mm thick) were fabricated from each resin (Lucitone 550 and QC-20), polished, stored in water at 37degreesC for 48 hours, and submitted to hardness tests (Vickers hardness number [VHN]) before disinfection. Disinfection methods included scrubbing with 4% chlorhexidine gluconate for 1 minute, immersion for 10 minutes in I of the tested disinfectant Solutions (n=8) (3.78% sodium perborate, 4% chlorhexidine gluconate, or 1% sodium hypochorite), and immersion in water for 3 minutes. The disinfection procedures were repeated 4 times, and 12 hardness measurements were made on each specimen. Control specimens (not disinfected) were stored in water for 56 minutes. Hardness tests (VHN) were also performed after 15, 30, 60, 90, and 120 days of storage in water. Statistical analyses of data were conducted with a repeated measures 3-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) and Tukey post-hoc test (alpha=.05).Results. Mean values +/- SD for Lucitone 550 (16.52 +/- 0.94 VHN) and QC-20 (9.61 +/- 0.62 VHN) demonstrated a significant (P<.05) decrease in hardness after disinfection, regardless of material and disinfectant solutions used (Lucitone 550: 15.25 +/- 0.74; QC-20: 8.09 +/- 0.39). However, this effect was reversed after 15 days of storage in water. Both materials exhibited a continuous increase (P<.05) in hardness values for up to 60 days of water storage, after which no significant change was observed.Conclusion. Within the limitations of this in vitro study, QC-20 and Lucitone 550 specimens exhibited significantly lower hardness values after disinfection regardless of the disinfectant solution used.

Jaw and Long Bone Marrows Have a Different Osteoclastogenic Potential

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Sexual behavior, neuroendocrine, and neurochemical aspects in male rats exposed prenatally to stress

The present study was designed to examine some short- and long-term effects of maternal restraint stress-during the period of sexual brain differentiation-on reproductive and endocrine systems, sexual behavior, and brain neurotransmitters in male rat descendants. Pregnant rats were exposed to restraint stress for 1 h/day from gestational days (GDs) 18 to 22. Prenatal stress did not influence the wet weight of sexual organs and the quantity of germ cells in adult male pups; however, these animals showed reduced testosterone levels, delayed latency to the first mount and first intromission, and also decreased number of ejaculations. Additionally, there was an increase in the dopamine and serotonin levels in the striatum. Our results indicate that prenatal stress had a long-term effect on neurotransmitter levels and sexual behavior. In this sense, reproductive problems caused by injuries during the fetal period can compromise the later success of mating as well as the capacity to generate descendants. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Physical mapping of the Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) genome by fluorescent in situ hybridization of repetitive DNAs to metaphase chromosomes - a review

The Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) has received increasing scientific interest over the past few decades for two reasons: first, tilapia is an enormously important species in aquaculture worldwide, especially in regions where there is a chronic shortage of animal protein; and second, this teleost fish belongs to the fascinating group of cichlid fishes that have undergone a rapid and extensive radiation of much interest to evolutionary biologists. Currently, studies based on physical and genetic mapping of the Nile tilapia genome offer the best opportunities for applying genomics to such diverse questions and issues as phylogeography, isolation of quantitative trait loci involved in behaviour, morphology, and disease, and overall improvement of aquacultural stocks. In this review, we have integrated molecular cytogenetic data for the Nile tilapia describing the chromosomal location of the repetitive DNA sequences, satellite DNAs, telomeres, 45S and 5S rDNAs, and the short and long interspersed nucleotide elements [short interspersed nuclear elements (SINEs) and long interspersed nuclear elements (LINEs)], and provide the beginnings of a physical genome map for this important teleost fish. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Maternal protein restriction induce skeletal muscle changes without altering the MRFs MyoD and myogenin expression in offspring

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

The Influence of Solutes on the Enthalpy/Entropy Change of the Actinomycin D Binding to DNA: Hydration, Energy Compensation and Long-Range Deformation on DNA

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)