Complexity of Inferences in Polytree-shaped Semi-Qualitative Probabilistic Networks

Semi-qualitative probabilistic networks (SQPNs) merge two important graphical model formalisms: Bayesian networks and qualitative probabilistic networks. They provide a very general modeling framework by allowing the combination of numeric and qualitative assessments over a discrete domain, and can be compactly encoded by exploiting the same factorization of joint probability distributions that are behind the Bayesian networks. This paper explores the computational complexity of semi-qualitative probabilistic networks, and takes the polytree-shaped networks as its main target. We show that the inference problem is coNP-Complete for binary polytrees with multiple observed nodes. We also show that inferences can be performed in linear time if there is a single observed node, which is a relevant practical case. Because our proof is constructive, we obtain an efficient linear time algorithm for SQPNs under such assumptions. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first exact polynomial-time algorithm for SQPNs. Together these results provide a clear picture of the inferential complexity in polytree-shaped SQPNs.

Semi-Qualitative Probabilistic Networks in Computer Vision Problems

This paper explores the application of semi-qualitative probabilistic networks (SQPNs) that combine numeric and qualitative information to computer vision problems. Our version of SQPN allows qualitative influences and imprecise probability measures using intervals. We describe an Imprecise Dirichlet model for parameter learning and an iterative algorithm for evaluating posterior probabilities, maximum a posteriori and most probable explanations. Experiments on facial expression recognition and image segmentation problems are performed using real data.

Belief Updating and Learning in Semi-Qualitative Probabilistic Networks

This paper explores semi-qualitative probabilistic networks (SQPNs) that combine numeric and qualitative information. We first show that exact inferences with SQPNs are NPPP-Complete. We then show that existing qualitative relations in SQPNs (plus probabilistic logic and imprecise assessments) can be dealt effectively through multilinear programming. We then discuss learning: we consider a maximum likelihood method that generates point estimates given a SQPN and empirical data, and we describe a Bayesian-minded method that employs the Imprecise Dirichlet Model to generate set-valued estimates.

Characterizing K2 Planet Discoveries: A super-Earth transiting the bright K-dwarf HIP 116454

We report the first planet discovery from the two-wheeled Kepler (K2) mission: HIP 116454 b. The host star HIP 116454 is a bright (V = 10.1, K = 8.0) K1 dwarf with high proper motion and a parallax-based distance of 55.2 +/- 5.4 pc. Based on high-resolution optical spectroscopy, we find that the host star is metal-poor with [Fe/H]= -0.16 +/- 0.08 and has a radius R-star = 0.716 +/- 0.024 R-circle dot and mass M-star = 0.775 +/- 0.027M(circle dot). The star was observed by the Kepler spacecraft during its Two-Wheeled Concept Engineering Test in 2014 February. During the 9 days of observations, K2 observed a single transit event. Using a new K2 photometric analysis technique, we are able to correct small telescope drifts and recover the observed transit at high confidence, corresponding to a planetary radius of R-p = 2.53 +/- 0.18 R-circle plus. Radial velocity observations with the HARPS-N spectrograph reveal a 11.82 +/- 1.33 M-circle plus planet in a 9.1 day orbit, consistent with the transit depth, duration, and ephemeris. Follow-up photometric measurements from the MOST satellite confirm the transit observed in the K2 photometry and provide a refined ephemeris, making HIP 116454 b amenable for future follow-up observations of this latest addition to the growing population of transiting super-Earths around nearby, bright stars.

Semi-interpenetrating polymer networks incorporating polygalacturonic acid for medical device applications

Background Over 20 million people in the US are living with an implantable medical device [ADDIN RW.CITE{{3114 Higgins,DavidM 2009}}1], with similar figures anticipated for Europe. Complications in the use of medical implants include the Foreign Body Response (FBR) characterised by macrophage adherence and fusion, and device-related infection due to bacterial biofilm formationADDIN RW.CITE{{3124 Harding,JacquelineL 2014}}2. Both can have detrimental consequences on the structural and functional integrity of the medical device [ADDIN RW.CITE{{3101 Anderson,JamesM 2008; 3124 Harding,JacquelineL 2014}}2,3], often necessitating removal; a painful and expensive procedure [ADDIN RW.CITE{{3121 Mah,Thien-FahC 2001}}4]. Materials are sought to attenuate both the FBR and device-related infection, leading to medical devices with improved biocompatibility and performance. Objectives The present work involves development of a semi-interpenetrating network (SIPN) hydrogel containing polygalacturonic acid (PGA), a biopolysaccharide similar in structure to hyaluronic acid. We aim to synthesise, characterise and determine the in vitro biocompatibility of the developed SIPN. Results & Discussion We have successfully incorporated PGA into a poly(HEMA) based hydrogel, which shows favourable swelling and wettability. The surface topography appears altered in comparison to the control material, with pronounced micrometer-scale features. In terms of in vitro performance, the SIPN showed increased protein adsorption, and biofilm formation (Staphylococcus epidermidis and Escherichia coli, up to 1 Log CFU/sample greater than control). However the SIPN displayed minimal cytotoxicity towards L929 fibroblasts, and was resistant to the adherence of RAW 264.7 macrophages. Conclusions The PGA incorporated SIPN lacks cytotoxicity and shows reduced macrophage adherence, however the increased biofilm formation highlights a concern regarding possible device related infection in clinical use. Future work will focus on strategies to reduce bacterial adherence, while maintaining biocompatibility.

The white dwarf's carbon fraction as a secondary parameter of Type Ia supernovae

Context. Binary stellar evolution calculations predict thatChandrasekhar-mass carbon/oxygen white dwarfs (WDs) show a radiallyvarying profile for the composition with a carbon depleted core. Manyrecent multi-dimensional simulations of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia),however, assume the progenitor WD has a homogeneous chemicalcomposition.
Aims: In this work, we explore the impact ofdifferent initial carbon profiles of the progenitor WD on the explosionphase and on synthetic observables in the Chandrasekhar-mass delayeddetonation model. Spectra and light curves are compared to observationsto judge the validity of the model.
Methods: The explosion phaseis simulated using the finite volume supernova code Leafs, which isextended to treat different compositions of the progenitor WD. Thesynthetic observables are computed with the Monte Carlo radiativetransfer code Artis. Results: Differences in binding energies ofcarbon and oxygen lead to a lower nuclear energy release for carbondepleted material; thus, the burning fronts that develop are weaker andthe total nuclear energy release is smaller. For otherwise identicalconditions, carbon depleted models produce less 56Ni.Comparing different models with similar 56Ni yields showslower kinetic energies in the ejecta for carbon depleted models, butonly small differences in velocity distributions and line velocities inspectra. The light curve width-luminosity relation (WLR) obtained formodels with differing carbon depletion is roughly perpendicular to theobserved WLR, hence the carbon mass fraction is probably only asecondary parameter in the family of SNe Ia.
Tables 3 and 4 are available in electronic form at http://www.aanda.org

A Novel Semi-Automated Method of Tracking Fetal Movements

We have designed software that can â€â€™look’’ at recorded ultrasound sequences. We analyzed fifteen video sequences representing recorded ultrasound scans of nine fetuses. Our method requires a small amount of user labelled pixels for processing the first frame. These initialize GrowCut 1 , a background removal algorithm, which was used for separating the fetus from its surrounding environment (segmentation). For each subsequent frame, user input is no longer necessary as some of the pixels will inherit labels from the previously processed frame. This results in our software’s ability to track movement. Two sonographers rated the results of our computer’s â€vision’ on a scale from 1 (poor fit) to 10 (excellent fit). They assessed tracking accuracy for the entire video as well as segmentation accuracy (the ability to identify fetus from non-fetus) for every 100th processed frame. There was no appreciable deterioration in the software’s ability to track the fetus over time. I

Magnetospheric Structure and Atmospheric Joule Heating of Habitable Planets Orbiting M-dwarf Stars

We study the magnetospheric structure and the ionospheric Joule Heating of planets orbiting M-dwarf stars in the habitable zone using a set of magnetohydrodynamic models. The stellar wind solution is used to drive a model for the planetary magnetosphere, which is coupled with a model for the planetary ionosphere. Our simulations reveal that the space environment around close-in habitable planets is extreme, and the stellar wind plasma conditions change from sub- to super-Alfvénic along the planetary orbit. As a result, the magnetospheric structure changes dramatically with a bow shock forming in the super-Alfvénic sectors, while no bow shock forms in the sub-Alfvénic sectors. The planets reside most of the time in the sub-Alfvénic sectors with poor atmospheric protection. A significant amount of Joule Heating is provided at the top of the atmosphere as a result of the intense stellar wind. For the steady-state solution, the heating is about 0.1%-3% of the total incoming stellar irradiation, and it is enhanced by 50% for the time-dependent case. The significant Joule Heating obtained here should be considered in models for the atmospheres of habitable planets in terms of the thickness of the atmosphere, the top-side temperature and density, the boundary conditions for the atmospheric pressure, and particle radiation and transport. Here we assume constant ionospheric Pedersen conductance similar to that of the Earth. The conductance could be greater due to the intense EUV radiation leading to smaller heating rates. We plan to quantify the ionospheric conductance in future study.

Quiescent and flaring X-ray emission from the nearby M/T dwarf binary SCR 1845-6357

Aims: X-ray emission is an important diagnostics to study magnetic activity in very low mass stars that are presumably fully convective and have an effectively neutral photosphere. Methods: We investigate an XMM-Newton observation of SCR 1845-6357, a nearby, ultracool M 8.5 / T 5.5 dwarf binary. The binary is unresolved in the XMM detectors, but the X-ray emission is very likely from the M 8.5 dwarf. We compare its flaring emission to those of similar very low mass stars and additionally present an XMM observation of the M 8 dwarf VB 10. Results: We detect quasi-quiescent X-ray emission from SCR 1845-6357 at soft X-ray energies in the 0.2-2.0 keV band, as well as a strong flare with a count rate increase of a factor of 30 and a duration of only 10 min. The quasi-quiescent X-ray luminosity of log LX = 26.2 erg/s and the corresponding activity level of log LX/Lbol = -3.8 point to a fairly active star. Coronal temperatures of up to 5 MK and frequent minor variability support this picture. During the flare, which is accompanied by a significant brightening in the near-UV, plasma temperatures of 25-30 MK are observed and an X-ray luminosity of LX = 8 × 1027 erg/s is reached. Conclusions: The source SCR 1845-6357 is a nearby, very low mass star that emits X-rays at detectable levels in quasi-quiescence, implying the existence of a corona. The high activity level, coronal temperatures and the observed large flare point to a rather active star, despite its estimated age of a few Gyr.

M Dwarf Flare Continuum Variations on One-second Timescales: Calibrating and Modeling of ULTRACAM Flare Color Indices

We present a large data set of high-cadence dMe flare light curves obtained with custom continuum filters on the triple-beam, high-speed camera system ULTRACAM. The measurements provide constraints for models of the near-ultraviolet (NUV) and optical continuum spectral evolution on timescales of ≈1 s. We provide a robust interpretation of the flare emission in the ULTRACAM filters using simultaneously obtained low-resolution spectra during two moderate-sized flares in the dM4.5e star YZ CMi. By avoiding the spectral complexity within the broadband Johnson filters, the ULTRACAM filters are shown to characterize bona fide continuum emission in the NUV, blue, and red wavelength regimes. The NUV/blue flux ratio in flares is equivalent to a Balmer jump ratio, and the blue/red flux ratio provides an estimate for the color temperature of the optical continuum emission. We present a new “color-color” relationship for these continuum flux ratios at the peaks of the flares. Using the RADYN and RH codes, we interpret the ULTRACAM filter emission using the dominant emission processes from a radiative-hydrodynamic flare model with a high nonthermal electron beam flux, which explains a hot, T ≈ 104 K, color temperature at blue-to-red optical wavelengths and a small Balmer jump ratio as observed in moderate-sized and large flares alike. We also discuss the high time resolution, high signal-to-noise continuum color variations observed in YZ CMi during a giant flare, which increased the NUV flux from this star by over a factor of 100. Based on observations obtained with the Apache Point Observatory 3.5 m telescope, which is owned and operated by the Astrophysical Research Consortium, based on observations made with the William Herschel Telescope operated on the island of La Palma by the Isaac Newton Group in the Spanish Observatorio del Roque de los Muchachos of the Instituto de Astrofsica de Canarias, and observations, and based on observations made with the ESO Telescopes at the La Silla Paranal Observatory under programme ID 085.D-0501(A).