Probabilistic verification of satellite systems for mission critical applications

In this thesis, we present a quantitative approach using probabilistic verification techniques for the analysis of reliability, availability, maintainability, and safety (RAMS) properties of satellite systems. The subject of our research is satellites used in mission critical industrial applications. A strong case for using probabilistic model checking to support RAMS analysis of satellite systems is made by our verification results. This study is intended to build a foundation to help reliability engineers with a basic background in model checking to apply probabilistic model checking to small satellite systems. We make two major contributions. One of these is the approach of RAMS analysis to satellite systems. In the past, RAMS analysis has been extensively applied to the field of electrical and electronics engineering. It allows system designers and reliability engineers to predict the likelihood of failures from the indication of historical or current operational data. There is a high potential for the application of RAMS analysis in the field of space science and engineering. However, there is a lack of standardisation and suitable procedures for the correct study of RAMS characteristics for satellite systems. This thesis considers the promising application of RAMS analysis to the case of satellite design, use, and maintenance, focusing on its system segments. Data collection and verification procedures are discussed, and a number of considerations are also presented on how to predict the probability of failure. Our second contribution is leveraging the power of probabilistic model checking to analyse satellite systems. We present techniques for analysing satellite systems that differ from the more common quantitative approaches based on traditional simulation and testing. These techniques have not been applied in this context before. We present the use of probabilistic techniques via a suite of detailed examples, together with their analysis. Our presentation is done in an incremental manner: in terms of complexity of application domains and system models, and a detailed PRISM model of each scenario. We also provide results from practical work together with a discussion about future improvements.

Extrapolating Satellite Winds to Turbine Operating Heights

Ocean wind retrievals from satellite sensors are typically performed for the standard level of 10 m. This restricts their full exploitation for wind energy planning, which requires wind information at much higher levels where wind turbines operate. A new method is presented for the vertical extrapolation of satellite-based wind maps. Winds near the sea surface are obtained from satellite data and used together with an adaptation of the Monin–Obukhov similarity theory to estimate the wind speed at higher levels. The thermal stratification of the atmosphere is taken into account through a long-term stability correction that is based on numerical weather prediction (NWP) model outputs. The effect of the long-term stability correction on the wind profile is significant. The method is applied to Envisat Advanced Synthetic Aperture Radar scenes acquired over the south Baltic Sea. This leads to maps of the long-term stability correction and wind speed at a height of 100 m with a spatial resolution of 0.02°. Calculations of the corresponding wind power density and Weibull parameters are shown. Comparisons with mast observations reveal that NWP model outputs can correct successfully for long-term stability effects and also, to some extent, for the limited number of satellite samples. The satellite-based and NWP-simulated wind profiles are almost equally accurate with respect to those from the mast. However, the satellite-based maps have a higher spatial resolution, which is particularly important in nearshore areas where most offshore wind farms are built.

Mathematical analysis of maximum power generated by photovoltaic systems and fitting curves for standard test conditions

The rural electrification is characterized by geographical dispersion of the population, low consumption, high investment by consumers and high cost. Moreover, solar radiation constitutes an inexhaustible source of energy and in its conversion into electricity photovoltaic panels are used. In this study, equations were adjusted to field conditions presented by the manufacturer for current and power of small photovoltaic systems. The mathematical analysis was performed on the photovoltaic rural system I- 100 from ISOFOTON, with power 300 Wp, located at the Experimental Farm Lageado of FCA/UNESP. For the development of such equations, the circuitry of photovoltaic cells has been studied to apply iterative numerical methods for the determination of electrical parameters and possible errors in the appropriate equations in the literature to reality. Therefore, a simulation of a photovoltaic panel was proposed through mathematical equations that were adjusted according to the data of local radiation. The results have presented equations that provide real answers to the user and may assist in the design of these systems, once calculated that the maximum power limit ensures a supply of energy generated. This real sizing helps establishing the possible applications of solar energy to the rural producer and informing the real possibilities of generating electricity from the sun.

Photovoltaic power forecast modeling with artificial neural networks

Dissertação de Mestrado, Engenharia Eletrónica e Telecomunicações, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia, Universidade do Algarve, 2016

Real-time load-side control of electric power systems

Two trends are emerging from modern electric power systems: the growth of renewable (e.g., solar and wind) generation, and the integration of information technologies and advanced power electronics. The former introduces large, rapid, and random fluctuations in power supply, demand, frequency, and voltage, which become a major challenge for real-time operation of power systems. The latter creates a tremendous number of controllable intelligent endpoints such as smart buildings and appliances, electric vehicles, energy storage devices, and power electronic devices that can sense, compute, communicate, and actuate. Most of these endpoints are distributed on the load side of power systems, in contrast to traditional control resources such as centralized bulk generators. This thesis focuses on controlling power systems in real time, using these load side resources. Specifically, it studies two problems.

(1) Distributed load-side frequency control: We establish a mathematical framework to design distributed frequency control algorithms for flexible electric loads. In this framework, we formulate a category of optimization problems, called optimal load control (OLC), to incorporate the goals of frequency control, such as balancing power supply and demand, restoring frequency to its nominal value, restoring inter-area power flows, etc., in a way that minimizes total disutility for the loads to participate in frequency control by deviating from their nominal power usage. By exploiting distributed algorithms to solve OLC and analyzing convergence of these algorithms, we design distributed load-side controllers and prove stability of closed-loop power systems governed by these controllers. This general framework is adapted and applied to different types of power systems described by different models, or to achieve different levels of control goals under different operation scenarios. We first consider a dynamically coherent power system which can be equivalently modeled with a single synchronous machine. We then extend our framework to a multi-machine power network, where we consider primary and secondary frequency controls, linear and nonlinear power flow models, and the interactions between generator dynamics and load control.

(2) Two-timescale voltage control: The voltage of a power distribution system must be maintained closely around its nominal value in real time, even in the presence of highly volatile power supply or demand. For this purpose, we jointly control two types of reactive power sources: a capacitor operating at a slow timescale, and a power electronic device, such as a smart inverter or a D-STATCOM, operating at a fast timescale. Their control actions are solved from optimal power flow problems at two timescales. Specifically, the slow-timescale problem is a chance-constrained optimization, which minimizes power loss and regulates the voltage at the current time instant while limiting the probability of future voltage violations due to stochastic changes in power supply or demand. This control framework forms the basis of an optimal sizing problem, which determines the installation capacities of the control devices by minimizing the sum of power loss and capital cost. We develop computationally efficient heuristics to solve the optimal sizing problem and implement real-time control. Numerical experiments show that the proposed sizing and control schemes significantly improve the reliability of voltage control with a moderate increase in cost.

WATER USE AND SYSTEM RELIABILITY UNDER DIESELGENERATOR AND SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC POWERED PUMPING SYSTEMS: A CASE STUDY OF SOLLA TOGO

Access to improved potable water sources is recognized as one of the key factors in improving health and alleviating global poverty. In recently years, substantial investments have been made internationally in potable water infrastructure projects, allowing 2.3 billion people to gain access to potable water from 1990-2012. One such project was planned and installed in Solla, Togo, a rural village in the northern part of the country, from 2010-2012. Ethnographic studies revealed that, while the community has access to potable water, an estimated 45% of the village’s 1500 residents still rely on unprotected sources for drinking and cooking. Additionally, inequality in system use based on income level was revealed, with the higher income groups accessing the system more regularly than lower income groups. Cost, as well as the availability of cheaper sources, was identified as the main deterrent from using the new water distribution system. A new water-pricing scheme is investigated here with the intention of making the system accessible to a greater percentage of the population. Since 2012, a village-level water committee has been responsible for operations and maintenance (O&M), fulfilling the community management model that is recommended by many development theorists in order to create sustainable projects. The water committee received post-construction support, mostly in the form of technical support during system breakdowns, from the Togolese Ministry of Water and Sanitation (MWSVH). While this support has been valuable in maintaining a functional water supply system in Solla, the water committee still has managerial challenges, particularly with billing and fee collection. As a result, the water committee has only received 2% - 25% of the fees owed at each private connection and public tap stand, making their finances vulnerable when future repairs and capital replacements are necessary. A new management structure is proposed by the MWSVH that will pay utilities workers a wage and will hire an accountant in order to improve the local management and increase revenue. This proposal is analyzed under the new water pricing schemes that are presented. Initially, the rural water supply system was powered by a diesel-generator, but in 2013, a solar photo-voltaic power supply was installed. The new system proved a fiscal improvement for the village water committee, since it drastically reduced their annual O&M costs. However, the new system pumps a smaller volume of water on a daily basis and did not meet the community’s water needs during the dry season of 2014. A hydraulic network model was developed to investigate the system’s reliability under diesel-generator (DGPS) and solar photovoltaic (PVPS) power supplies. Additionally, a new system layout is proposed for the PVPS that allows pumping directly into the distribution line, circumventing the high head associated with pumping solely to the storage tank. It was determined that this new layout would allow for a greater volume of water to be provided to the demand points over the course of a day, meeting a greater fraction of the demand than with the current layout.

THE EFFECT OF ANNEALING ON AMORPHOUS SILICON BASED SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC THERMAL SYSTEM (PV/T) AND APPROPRIATE GLOBAL DISPATCH STRATEGIES

Previous work has shown that high-temperature short-term spike thermal annealing of hydrogenated amorphous silicon (a-Si:H) photovoltaic thermal (PVT) systems results in higher electrical energy output. The relationship between temperature and performance of a-Si:H PVT is not simple as high temperatures during thermal annealing improves the immediate electrical performance following an anneal, but during the anneal it creates a marked drop in electrical performance. In addition, the power generation of a-Si:H PVT depends on both the environmental conditions and the Staebler-Wronski Effect kinetics. In order to improve the performance of a-Si:H PVT systems further, this paper reports on the effect of various dispatch strategies on system electrical performance. Utilizing experimental results from thermal annealing, an annealing model simulation for a-Si:Hbased PVT was developed and applied to different cities in the U.S. to investigate potential geographic effects on the dispatch optimization of the overall electrical PVT systems performance and annual electrical yield. The results showed that spike thermal annealing once per day maximized the improved electrical energy generation. In the outdoor operating condition this ideal behavior deteriorates and optimization rules are required to be implemented.

QoE-aware power management in vehicle-to-grid networks:a matching-theoretic approach

Frequency, time and places of charging and discharging have critical impact on the Quality of Experience (QoE) of using Electric Vehicles (EVs). EV charging and discharging scheduling schemes should consider both the QoE of using EV and the load capacity of the power grid. In this paper, we design a traveling plan-aware scheduling scheme for EV charging in driving pattern and a cooperative EV charging and discharging scheme in parking pattern to improve the QoE of using EV and enhance the reliability of the power grid. For traveling planaware scheduling, the assignment of EVs to Charging Stations (CSs) is modeled as a many-to-one matching game and the Stable Matching Algorithm (SMA) is proposed. For cooperative EV charging and discharging in parking pattern, the electricity exchange between charging EVs and discharging EVs in the same parking lot is formulated as a many-to-many matching model with ties, and we develop the Pareto Optimal Matching Algorithm (POMA). Simulation results indicates that the SMA can significantly improve the average system utility for EV charging in driving pattern, and the POMA can increase the amount of electricity offloaded from the grid which is helpful to enhance the reliability of the power grid.

Monitoring system for small sized photovoltaic power plants

This paper presents a monitoring system devoted to small sized photovoltaic (PV) power plants. The system is characterized by: a high level of integration; a low cost, when compared to the cost of the PV system to be monitored; and an easy installation in the majority of the PV plants with installed power of some kW. The system is able to collect, store, process and display electrical and meteorological parameters that are crucial when monitoring PV facilities. The identification of failures in the PV system and the elaboration of performance analysis of such facilities are other important characteristics of the developed system. The access to the information about the monitored facilities is achieved by using a web application, which was developed with a focus on the mobile devices. In addition, there is the possibility of an integration between the developed monitoring system and the central supervision system of Martifer Solar (a company focused on the development, operation and maintenance of PV systems).

Annual Average Value of Solar Radiation and its Variability in Portugal

Solar resource assessment is essential for the different phases of solar energy projects, such as preliminary design engineering, financing including due diligence and, later, insurance phases. An important aspect is the long term resource estimation. This kind of estimation can only be obtained through the statistical analysis of long-term data series of solar radiation measurements, preferably ground measurements. This paper is a first step in this direction, with an initial statistical analysis performed over the radiation data from a national measurement network, consisting of eighty-nine meteorological stations. These preliminary results are presented in figures that represent the annual average values of Global Horizontal Irradiation (GHI) and its Variability in the Portuguese continental territory. These results show that the South of Portugal is the most suitable area for the implementation of medium to large scale solar plants.

Variability and trends of downward surface global solar radiation over the Iberian Peninsula based on ERA-40 reanalysis

A climate study of the incidence of downward surface global solar radiation (SSRD) in the Iberian Peninsula (IP) based primarily on ERA-40 reanalysis is presented. NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and ground-based records from several Portuguese and Spanish stations have been also considered. The results showthat reanalysis can capture a similar inter-annual variability as compared to ground-based observations, especially on a monthly basis, even though annual ERA-40 (NCEP/NCAR) values tend to underestimate (overestimate) the observations with a mean relative difference of around 20Wm–2 (40Wm–2). On the other hand, ground-based measurements in Portuguese stations during the period 1964–1989 show a tendency to decrease until the mid-1970s followed by an increase up to the end of the study period, in line with the dimming/brightening phenomenon reported in the literature. Nevertheless, there are different temporal behaviours as a greater increase since the 1970s is observed in the south and less industrialized regions. Similarly, the ERA-40 reanalysis shows a noticeable decrease until the early 1970s followed by a slight increase up to the end of the 1990s, suggesting a dimming/brightening transition around the early 1970s, earlier in the south and centre and later in the north of the IP. Although there are slight differences in the magnitude of the trends as well as the turning year of the dimming/brightening periods, the decadal changes of ERA-40 fairly agree with the ground-based observations in Portugal and Spain, in contrast to most of the literature for other regions of the world, and is used in the climatology of the SSRD in the study area. NCEP/NCAR reanalysis does not capture the decadal variations of SSRD in the IP. The results show that part of the decadal variability of the global radiation in the IP is related to changes in cloud cover (represented in ERA-40).

UN METODO EMPIRICO PARA LA PREDICCION DE LA RADIACION SOLAR GLOBAL DIARIA MEDIA MENSUAL,SOBRE UNA SUPERFICIEHORIZONTAL, EN COSTA RICA

Lo que se pretende con este trabajo es probar el método de Swartman y Ogunlade (1966), en las aéreas geográficas de Limón, Buenos Aires, Fabio Baudrit (Alajuela), Nicoya y Puntarenas, donde existen datos de brillo solar, humedad relativa y radiación solar global diaria media mensual. Se prueba la validez de este método para estas estaciones en estudio, con un valor aceptable de ± 10% de error en la mayoría de los casos. En ausencia de aparatos que miden directamente la radiación solar global, se recomienda utilizar este método, pues únicamente requiere datos de humedad relativa y brillo solar, que se miden directamente en casi todas las estaciones meteorológicas del país.   SUMMARY This article attempts to verify the method used by Swartman and Ogunlade (1966) in the areas of Limón, Buenos Aires, Fabio Baudrit (Alajuela), Nicoya and Puntarenas, where data exist concerning solar brilliance, relative humidity and daily global solar radiation based on monthly averages. The validity of this method is proved in reference to the above mentioned study sites, with an acceptable error factor of ± 10% in the majority of the cases. The usage of this method is recommended in the absence of apparatus that measure directly the global solar radiation, because you only need data concerning relative humidity and solar brilliance; data that is directly collected in all of the meteorogical stations located in Costa Rica.   RESUME Le but de ce travail est la probation de la méthode de Swartman et Ogunlade (1966), en l’appliquant dans des aires géographiques tant diverses comme Limón, Buenos Aires, Fabio Baudrit (Alajuela), Nicoya et Puntarenas ; c'est-à-dire là où existe des mesures de la durée de l’ensoleillement, de l’humidité relative et de la moyenne mensuelle de la radiation solaire globale quotidienne. Le test de cette méthode, para ces stations donne une erreur relative de 10% dans la plupart de cas. Quand on manque d’appareils pour la mesure de la radiation solaire globale, on recommande l’usage de cette méthode, puisqu’elle se base Our les registres d’humidité relative et d’heures d’ensoleillement mesurées que toutes les stations météoritiques du pays.  

Biophysical indicators based on satellite images in an irrigated area at the São Francisco River Basin, Brazil.

The Jaíba Irrigated Perimeter is a large irrigated agriculturearea, located in the region Forest Jaíba between the SãoFrancisco and Verde Grande rivers, in the Brazilian semi-arid region. In 2014, irrigators thisthe region face losses in theinterruption of new plantings in irrigated areas due to water scarcity. The objective ofthis study is combine the modelto estimate the Monteith BIO with the SAFER algorithm in the case of obtaining ET, to analyze the dynamics of naturalvegetation and irrigated crops in water scarcity period. For application of the model are necessary data frommeteorological stations and satellite images. Were used 23satellite images of MODIS withspatial resolution of 250mand temporal 16 days, of 2014 year. For analyze the results,we used central pivots irrigation mask of Minas Geraisstate, Brazil. In areas with irrigated agriculture with central pivot, the mean values of BIO over the year 2014 were88.96 kg.ha-1.d-1. The highest values occurred between April 23 and May 8, with BIO 139 kg.ha-1.d-1. For areas withnatural vegetation, the average BIO was 88.34 kg.ha-1.d-1with lower values in September. Estimates of ET varied withthe lowest values of ET observedin natural vegetation 1,91±1,22 mm.d-1and the highest values in irrigated area isobserved 3,51±0,97 mm.d-1. Results of this study can assist in monitoring of river basins, contributing to themanagement irrigated agriculture, with the trend of scarcity of water resources and increasing conflicts for the wateruse.

Cálculo y mapeo de la radiación solar directa y difusa en Costa Rica (ING)

Knowledge of direct and diffuse solar radiation in the area is vital importance for the use of solar energy, since it is a prerequesite information for the assessment and design of solar energy system. The work presented here focus on calculation and plotting of contours values of direct and diffuse solar radiation maps based on sixty two scattered radiometric stations nation wide. In the plotting of these contours experimental and predicted values are used, these are compared with the period of dry and rainy season into the six main climate regions of Costa Rica: Central Valley, North Pacific, Central Pacific, South Pacific, North Zone and Caribbean Region. The observed daily mean levels of direct solar radiation oscillate between 6.1 and 10.1 MJ/m2 with higher values in the North Pacific, western part of the Central Valley and in the tops of the highest mountains. The lowest values agree with the North Zone and the Caribbean Region. The highest values of diffuse solar radiation agree with the North Zone and the South Pacific. It is observed an increase of 40% of the direct radiation during dry season months.

Synthesis of new non-fullerene acceptors based on indacenodithiophene core for organic solar cells

Due to the low cost, lightness and flexibility, Polymer Solar Cell (PSC) technology is considered one of the most promising energy technologies. In the past decades, PSCs using fullerenes or fullerene derivatives as the electron acceptors have made great progress with best power conversion efficiency (PCE) reaching 11%. However, fullerene type electron acceptors have several drawbacks such as complicated synthesis, a low light absorption coefficient and poor tuning in energy levels, which prevent the further development of fullerene-based PSCs. Hence the need to have a new class of electron acceptors as an alternative to conventional fullerene compounds. Non-fullerene acceptors (NFAs) have developed rapidly in the last years and the maximum PCEs have exceeded 14% for single-junction cells and 17% for double-junction tandem cells. By combining an electron-donating backbone, generally with several fused rings with electron-withdrawing units, we can simply construct NFA of the acceptor–donor–acceptor type (A–D–A). Versatile molecular structures have been developed using methods such as acceptor motif engineering and donor motif engineering. However, there are only a few electron-donating backbones that have been proved to be successful. Therefore, it is still necessary to develop promising building blocks to further enrich the structural diversity. An indacenodithiophene (IDT) unit with just five fused rings has a sufficiently rigid coplanar structure, which has been regarded as one of the promising electron-rich units to design high-performance A–D–A NFAs. In this work, performed at the King Abdullah University of Science and Technology in Saudi Arabia, a new nine-cyclic building block (TBIDT) with a two benzothiophene unit was synthesized and used for designing new non-fullerene electron acceptors.