The Global Side of the Investment-Savings Puzzle

In this paper we re-examine the long standing and puzzling correlation between national savings and investment in industrial countries. We apply an econometric methodology that allows us to separate idiosyncratic correlation at the country level from correlation at the global level. In a major break with the existing literature, we find no evidence of a long run relationship in the idiosyncratic components of savings and investment. We also find that the global components in savings and investments comove, indicating that they react to shocks of a global nature.

The economy of the Beijing Olympic Games: An analysis of first impacts and prospects

This paper was presented at the International Sport Business Symposium, held by the Capital University of Economics and Business in Beijing, in 2008. The speakers, Ferran Brunet, as a professor at the Autonomous University of Barcelona and Zuo Xinwen, as a member of Beijing Development and Reform Commission, both set out to analyze changes in the economic and social development of the city which were undertaken with the aim to celebrate the 2008 Olympic Games. They discuss aspects as a transformation in the mode of economic growth, resources of the Organizing Committee, investments related to the Games, transport and communications, industries, the balance of urban and rural development, urban construction and management service and operations into a well-off society.

Booms, Recessions and Financial Turmoil: A Fresh Look at Investment Decisions under Cyclical Uncertainty

The paper studies the interaction between cyclical uncertainty and investment in a stochastic real option framework where demand shifts stochastically between three different states, each with different rates of drift and volatility. In our setting the shifts are governed by a three-state Markov switching model with constant transition probabilities. The magnitude of the link between cyclical uncertainty and investment is quantified using simulations of the model. The chief implication of the model is that recessions and financial turmoil are important catalysts for waiting. In other words, our model shows that macroeconomic risk acts as an important deterrent to investments.

Associação e distribuição das espécies de peixes na laguna de Marapendi, Rio de Janeiro, no período de março de 1985 a fevereiro de 1987

From March 1985 to February 1987 montly cast net and beach seine sambles were collected at the Marapendi lagoon, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, to describe its ichthyofauna and analyze associations between species and their distribution in areas with different salinity regimes. A stratified random sampling design was used and the lagoon diveided in four areas (1-4) according to salinity gradient. The "Bravais-Pearson" correlation index was utilized to analyze the similarity between species and between areas and also group them according to the UPGMA method. According to the results eight species groups were established. The majority of the species were wuryhaline, having a marine origin and were distributed in areas 1, 2 and 3 (high salinity areas). The formation of smaller groups with species of fresh water origin, which occurred in areas 2, 3 and 4 is also discussed.

Transaction Costs and Institutions

This paper proposes a simple framework for understanding endogenous transaction costs - their composition, size and implications. In a model of diversification against risk, we distinguish between investments in institutions that facilitate exchange and the costs of conducting exchange itself. Institutional quality and market size are determined by the decisions of risk averse agents and conditions are discussed under which the efficient allocation may be decentralized. We highlight a number of differences with models where transaction costs are exogenous, including the implications for taxation and measurement issues.

Forecasting the European Carbon Market

In an effort to meet its obligations under the Kyoto Protocol, in 2005 the European Union introduced a cap-and-trade scheme where mandated installations are allocated permits to emit CO2. Financial markets have developed that allow companies to trade these carbon permits. For the EU to achieve reductions in CO2 emissions at a minimum cost, it is necessary that companies make appropriate investments and policymakers design optimal policies. In an effort to clarify the workings of the carbon market, several recent papers have attempted to statistically model it. However, the European carbon market (EU ETS) has many institutional features that potentially impact on daily carbon prices (and associated nancial futures). As a consequence, the carbon market has properties that are quite different from conventional financial assets traded in mature markets. In this paper, we use dynamic model averaging (DMA) in order to forecast in this newly-developing market. DMA is a recently-developed statistical method which has three advantages over conventional approaches. First, it allows the coefficients on the predictors in a forecasting model to change over time. Second, it allows for the entire fore- casting model to change over time. Third, it surmounts statistical problems which arise from the large number of potential predictors that can explain carbon prices. Our empirical results indicate that there are both important policy and statistical bene ts with our approach. Statistically, we present strong evidence that there is substantial turbulence and change in the EU ETS market, and that DMA can model these features and forecast accurately compared to conventional approaches. From a policy perspective, we discuss the relative and changing role of different price drivers in the EU ETS. Finally, we document the forecast performance of DMA and discuss how this relates to the efficiency and maturity of this market.

Modified 'dumbbell' technique: a simple and intuitive method to position balloon-expandable stent valves.

Intraoperative cardiac imaging plays a key role during transcatheter aortic valve replacement. In recent years, new techniques and new tools for improved image quality and virtual navigation have been proposed, in order to simplify and standardize stent valve positioning and implantation. But routine performance of the new techniques may require major economic investments or specific knowledge and skills and, for this reason, they may not be accessible to the majority of cardiac centres involved in transcatheter valve replacement projects. Additionally, they still require injections of contrast medium to obtain computed images. Therefore, we have developed and describe here a very simple and intuitive method of positioning balloon-expandable stent valves, which represents the evolution of the 'dumbbell' technique for echocardiography-guided transcatheter valve replacement without angiography. This method, based on the partial inflation of the balloon catheter during positioning, traps the crimped valve in the aortic valve orifice and, consequently, very near to the ideal landing zone. It does not require specific echocardiographic knowledge; it does not require angiographies that increase the risk of postoperative kidney failure in elderly patients, and it can be also performed in centres not equipped with a hybrid operating room.

The relationship between public education expenditure and economic growth: The case of India

The paper reviews the theoretical and the empirical case for public investment in education in India. Though the theoretical literature provides a backing for such a policy, the empirical literature fails to find a robust relation between education expenditure and growth. Expenditure on education is a necessary but not a sufficient condition for growth. It seems that the effectiveness of education expenditure depends on the institutional and labour market characteristics of the economy. The effectiveness of education investments also depends on other factors such as trade openness. Due to these aforesaid factors, we argue that the empirical relation between education expenditure and growth for India has been inconsistent.

IgM immunoglobulins reacting with the phenolic glycolipid-1 antigen from Mycobacterium leprae in sera of leprosy patients and their contacts

For the first time in Brazil it was investigated the occurrence of IgM anti-PGL-1 in the sera of household contacts of leprozy patients using the ELISA methodology. The sera of the multipatients. It was observed a high subclinical infection incidence among household contacts (19.4%). The percentage of leprosy development was 5% (1/21) among the seropositive contact group. This finding suggests that serology could be useful as prognostic test, but for better definition is necessary to tet a population from endemic area for long period time.

Policy Labels and Investment Decision-making

Much attention in recent years has turned to the potential of behavioural insights to improve the performance of government policy. One behavioural concept of interest is the effect of a cash transfer label on how the transfer is spent. The Winter Fuel Payment (WFP) is a labelled cash transfer to offset the costs of keeping older households warm in the winter. Previous research has shown that households spend a higher proportion of the WFP on energy expenditures due to its label (Beatty et al., 2011). If households interpret the WFP as money for their energy bills, it may reduce their willingness to undertake investments which help achieving the same goal, such as the adoption of renewable energy technologies. In this paper we show that the WFP has distortionary effects on the renewable technology market. Using the sharp eligibility criteria of the WFP in a Regression Discontinuity Design, this analysis finds a reduction in the propensity to install renewable energy technologies of around 2.7 percentage points due to the WFP. This is a considerable number. It implies that 62% of households (whose oldest member turns 60) would have invested in renewable energy but refrain to do so after receiving the WFP. This analysis suggests that the labelling effect spreads to products related to the labelled good. In this case, households use too much energy from sources which generate pollution and too little from relatively cleaner technologies.

Overtime Working and Contract Efficiency

We present a wage-hours contract designed to minimize costly turnover given investments in specific training combined with firm and worker information asymmetries. It may be optimal for the parties to work ‘long hours’ remunerated at premium rates for guaranteed overtime hours. Based on British plant and machine operatives, we test three predictions. First, trained workers with longer tenure are more likely to work overtime. Second, hourly overtime pay exceeds the value of marginal product while the basic hourly wage is less than the value of marginal product. Third, the basic hourly wage is negatively related to the overtime premium.

Dynamic Relational Contracts under Complete Information

This paper considers a long-term relationship between two agents who both undertake a costly action or investment that together produces a joint benefit. Agents have an opportunity to expropriate some of the joint benefit for their own use. Two cases are considered: (i) where agents are risk neutral and are subject to limited liability constraints and (ii) where agents are risk averse, have quasi-linear preferences in consumption and actions but where limited liability constraints do not bind. The question asked is how to structure the investments and division of the surplus over time so as to avoid expropriation. In the risk-neutral case, there may be an initial phase in which one agent overinvests and the other underinvests. However, both actions and surplus converge monotonically to a stationary state in which there is no overinvestment and surplus is at its maximum subject to the constraints. In the risk-averse case, there is no overinvestment. For this case, we establish that dynamics may or may not be monotonic depending on whether or not it is possible to sustain a first-best allocation. If the first-best allocation is not sustainable, then there is a trade-off between risk sharing and surplus maximization. In general, surplus will not be at its constrained maximum even in the long run.

Comparative allometry growth of some marine fish digenetic trematodes

Allometric growth variation was compared for Plagioporus idoneus, Lepocreadium pegorchis, Opecoeloides furcatus, Bacciger israelensis, Aphanurus stossichi and Parahurleytrema trachinoti collected from East Mediterranean fishes. The pharynx, the oral and the ventral sucker diameters always showed a negative allometry. The other parameters tested were variable with the species. We study the effects of some environmental factors: the influence of the host species is analysed in Plagioporus idoneous, wich parasitizes Oblada melanura, Diplodus sargus and D. vulgaris and in Lepocreadium pegorchis, wich parasitizes Pagellus erythrinus, Lithognathus mormyrus and Spicara smaris; the influence of the microhabitat and the intensity of infection is analysed in Bacciger israelensis and Aphanurus stossichi, both parasites of Boops boops. We report significant differences with the host species, for the allometric growth of the testes; the effect of the microhabitat was revealed by the hindbody allometric value; no significant difference was detected in relation with the intensity of infection.

Some personal views on the control of schistosomiasis mansoni

Our views are based, on a recent study of a district of Uniao dos Palmares (Alagoas). Although being a very compact community (32 city blocks holding two thousand families), transmission is very uneven, the geometric mean egg counts in the various blocks ranging between extremes of 96 and 1920. (Results do not correlate with the availability of domestic water supply). We thus are led to conclude that: (a) transmission is primarily peridomestic, resulting from pollution of open ditches and other collections of water; (b) control of transmission can be done on a selective basis, requiring quite medest investments. Given the inefficacy of population-based chemotherapy, when used alone, the author insists that this alternative cannot any longer be overlooked. He also regrets the emphasis placed upon vaccine development; allegations that this would, at any rate, prevent severe morbidity can be dismissed, since-whatever the cause-morbidity due to schistosomiasis has been rapidly declining in Northeast Brazil.

Plan de gestión de energías renovables en el Monasterio Sakya Tashi Ling del Garraf

En el presente estudio se han analizado las posibilidades de reducción del impacto ambiental que genera el consumo de energía en el Monasterio budista Sakya Tashi Ling del Parque del Garraf, mediante la mejora de la eficiencia energética de los edificios y la producción de la energía consumida a partir de fuentes de energía renovables. Se ha realizado un inventario exhaustivo de los flujos energéticos de entrada del Monasterio: electricidad y combustibles fósiles, y el análisis de estos datos ha permitido observar que la mayor parte del consumo energético del Monasterio tiene como uso final la iluminación. El consumo total de energía se ha cuantificado en 138 kWh/m2/año y la emisiones de CO2 en 177 kg CO2/m2/año. A partir de estos datos se ha estudiado la posibilidad de reducir el consumo y abastecer la demanda energética del Monasterio a través de fuentes de energía renovable como las placas solares fotovoltaicas o las calderas de biomasa. Para alcanzar este objetivo se han propuesto tres escenarios posibles con costes económicos y resultados muy distintos. A diferencia de los escenarios “Edificio Energía Plus” y “Edificio Energía 0”, el tercer escenario propuesto, que trataba de alcanzar el triple objetivo del Plan 20/20/20 (producir a partir de fuentes renovables el 20% de la energía consumida, aumentar en una 20% la eficiencia energética y reducir en un 20% las emisiones de CO2 derivadas del uso de la energía) ha resultado ser muy viable económicamente: la inversión necesaria se amortizaría en tan sólo 5 años.