The Effect of Spatial Scale on Predicting Time Series: A Study on Epidemiological System Identification

A susceptible-infective-recovered (SIR) epidemiological model based on probabilistic cellular automaton (PCA) is employed for simulating the temporal evolution of the registered cases of chickenpox in Arizona, USA, between 1994 and 2004. At each time step, every individual is in one of the states S, I, or R. The parameters of this model are the probabilities of each individual (each cell forming the PCA lattice ) passing from a state to another state. Here, the values of these probabilities are identified by using a genetic algorithm. If nonrealistic values are allowed to the parameters, the predictions present better agreement with the historical series than if they are forced to present realistic values. A discussion about how the size of the PCA lattice affects the quality of the model predictions is presented. Copyright (C) 2009 L. H. A. Monteiro et al.

Variation in the wood anatomical structure of Gmelina arborea (Verbenaceae) trees at different ecological conditions in Costa Rica

The tree Gmelina arborea has been widely introduced in Costa Rica for commercial purposes. This new conditions for melina cause variations on anatomy in secondary xylem of the trees growing in plantations. The objective of the present research was to determine the variation in the anatomy of xylem caused by the ecological conduction variation. Dimensions of fiber, axial parenchyma percentage of cross sections, parameters of vessels and the ray were measured. The results showed that some anatomical characteristics remained stable despite variations of ecological conditions, especially radial parenchyma and anatomical features which were less affected by the altitude. On the other hand, the vessels, axial parenchyma and fiber were less stable because they were affected significantly by the longitude, latitude, altitude and precipitation. Latitude significantly affected vessel percentage, length and diameter of the fiber and lumen. Longitude affected vessel percentage and fiber diameter. Altitude had a significant correlation with the amount of cells at my height. Annual average precipitation affected vessel percentage and diameter, not only of the fiber, but also of the lumen. These results suggest that the new growth conditions of G. arborea trees in Costa Rica have produced an anatomic adaptation.

Radial variation of anatomical features, wood density and decay resistance in teak (Tectona grandis) from two qualities of growing sites and two climatic regions of Costa Rica

The objective of this study was to show the radial variation of some anatomic characteristics, wood density and natural durability of teak (Tectona grandis L.F.) growing in Costa Rica. Samples of trees 13 years old were obtained from two growing sites (high and low growing) of plantations established in a humid tropical climate (CHT) and dry tropical climate (CST). The variables measured of the fibers as well as for the rays were not affected by the climate or the type of growing site, except for the length of the fibers. The fibers of teak wood from the best growing site were significantly larger. Vessels were found with a greater frequency for the CST but mostly solitary in comparison with the CBT. Average density, maximum density and the variation within the ring presented a light higher magnitude for the CST. The quality of the growing site did not affect these variables. The resistance of fungus attack was similar in the area of heartwood near the pith compared to the heartwood near the sapwood for all the conditions evaluated. Nevertheless, it was observed in some trees a similar resistance of fungus attack for areas of sapwood compared to similar areas of heartwood.

Plasmodium vivax circumsporozoite genotypes: a limited variation or new subspecies with major biological consequences?

Background: Plasmodium vivax circumsporozoite variants have been identified in several geographical areas. The real implication of the genetic variation in this region of the P. vivax genome has been questioned for a long time. Although previous studies have observed significant association between VK210 and the Duffy blood group, we present here that evidences of this variation are limited to the CSP central portion. Methods: The phylogenetic analyses were accomplished starting from the amplification of conserved domains of 18 SSU RNAr and Cyt B. The antibodies responses against the CSP peptides, MSP-1, AMA-1 and DBP were detected by ELISA, in plasma samples of individuals infected with two P. vivax CS genotypes: VK210 and P. vivax-like. Results: These analyses of the two markers demonstrate high similarity among the P. vivax CS genotypes and surprisingly showed diversity equal to zero between VK210 and P. vivax-like, positioning these CS genotypes in the same clade. A high frequency IgG antibody against the N- and C-terminal regions of the P. vivax CSP was found as compared to the immune response to the R- and V-repetitive regions (p = 0.0005, Fisher's Exact test). This difference was more pronounced when the P. vivax-like variant was present in the infection (p = 0.003, Fisher's Exact test). A high frequency of antibody response against MSP-1 and AMA-1 peptides was observed for all P. vivax CS genotypes in comparison to the same frequency for DBP. Conclusions: This results target that the differences among the P. vivax CS variants are restrict to the central repeated region of the protein, mostly nucleotide variation with important serological consequences.

Spatial patterns of malaria in a land reform colonization project, Juruena municipality, Mato Grosso, Brazil

Background: In Brazil, 99% of malaria cases are concentrated in the Amazon, and malaria's spatial distribution is commonly associated with socio-environmental conditions on a fine landscape scale. In this study, the spatial patterns of malaria and its determinants in a rural settlement of the Brazilian agricultural reform programme called ""Vale do Amanhecer"" in the northern Mato Grosso state were analysed. Methods: In a fine-scaled, exploratory ecological study, geocoded notification forms corresponding to malaria cases from 2005 were compared with spectral indices, such as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and the third component of the Tasseled Cap Transformation (TC_3) and thematic layers, derived from the visual interpretation of multispectral TM-Landsat 5 imagery and the application of GIS distance operators. Results: Of a total of 336 malaria cases, 102 (30.36%) were caused by Plasmodium falciparum and 174 (51.79%) by Plasmodium vivax. Of all the cases, 37.6% (133 cases) were from residents of a unique road. In total, 276 cases were reported for the southern part of the settlement, where the population density is higher, with notification rates higher than 10 cases per household. The local landscape mostly consists of open areas (38.79 km(2)). Training forest occupied 27.34 km(2) and midsize vegetation 7.01 km(2). Most domiciles with more than five notified malaria cases were located near areas with high NDVI values. Most domiciles (41.78%) and malaria cases (44.94%) were concentrated in areas with intermediate values of the TC_3, a spectral index representing surface and vegetation humidity. Conclusions: Environmental factors and their alteration are associated with the occurrence and spatial distribution of malaria cases in rural settlements.

Phenotypic variation among four family members with congenital hypothyroidism caused by two distinct thyroglobulin gene mutations

Background: Thyroglobulin (Tg) is a large glycoprotein that is intimately involved in the biosynthesis of thyroxine and triiodothyronine. At least 38 mutations have been described in the Tg gene that are associated with varying degrees of hypothyroidism. We studied the Tg gene in four related subjects with congenital hypothyroidism. Summary: We found a novel compound heterozygous constellation (IVS30 + 1G>T/A2215D) in a brother and sister and one previously described related mutation (IVS30+1G>T) in their two sibling second degree cousins. The brother with the IVS30 + 1G>T/A2215D mutation and the two siblings with the IVS30+1G>T mutation had fetal or neonatal goiter and all had hypothyroidism. Conclusions: This study further confirms the association of the IVS30+1G>T mutation of the Tg gene with hypothyroidism. Computer analysis predicts that the A2215D mutation, first reported here, should cause structural instability of Tg but when present as a compound heterozygous mutation with IVS30+G>T/A its effect is unclear but is likely to be influenced by iodine intake.

Time variation of some selected topics in bioethical publications

Objective: To analyse the time variation of topics in bioethical publications as a proxy of the relative importance. Methods: We searched the Medline database for bioethics publications using the words ""ethics or bioethics'', and for 360 specific topics publications, associating Medical Subject Heading topic descriptors to those words. We calculated the ratio of bioethics publications to the total publications of Medline, and the ratio of each topic publications to the total bioethics publications, for five-year intervals, from 1970 to 2004. We calculated the time variation of ratios, dividing the difference between the highest and lowest ratio of each topic by its highest ratio. Four topics were described, selected to illustrate different patterns of variation: ""Induced Abortion'', ""Conflict of Interest'', ""Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome'', ""Medical Education.'' Results: The ratio of bioethics publications to total Medline publications increased from 0.003 to 0.012. The variation of the topic's ratios was higher than 0.7 for 68% of the topics. The Induced Abortion ratios decreased from 0.12 to 0.02. Conflict of Interest ratios increased from zero to 0.07. The Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome ratios were nearly zero in the first three intervals, had a peak of 0.06 during 1985-9, followed by a decrease to 0.01. Medical Education ratios varied few, from 0.04 to 0.03. Conclusions: There was an increase of bioethical publications in the Medline database. The topics in bioethics literature have an important time variation. Some factors were suggested to explain this variation: current legal cases, resolution of the issue, saturation of a discussion and epidemiologic importance.

Concurrent sequence variation of TP53 and TP73 genes in anaplastic astrocytoma

Disruption or loss of tumor suppressor gene TP53 is implicated in the development or progression of almost all different types of human malignancies. Other members of the p53 family have been identified. One member, p73, not only shares a high degree of similarity with p53 in its primary sequence, but also has similar functions. Like p53, p73 can bind to DNA and activate transcription. Using PCR-SSCP and gene sequencing, we analyzed the TP53 and TP73 genes in a case of a grade III anaplastic astrocytoma that progressed to glioblastoma. We found a deletion of AAG at position 595-597 of TP53 (exon 6), resulting in the deletion of Glu 199 in the protein and a genomic polymorphism of TP73, identified as an A-to-G change, at position E8/+15 at intron 8 (IVS8-15A>G). The mutation found at exon 6 of the gene TP53 could be associated with the rapid tumoral progression found in this case, since the mutated p53 may inactivate the wild-type p53 and the p73 alpha protein, which was conserved here, leading to an increase in cellular instability.

Observational Characterization of the Downward Atmospheric Longwave Radiation at the Surface in the City of Sao Paulo

This work describes the seasonal and diurnal variations of downward longwave atmospheric irradiance (LW) at the surface in Sao Paulo, Brazil, using 5-min-averaged values of LW, air temperature, relative humidity, and solar radiation observed continuously and simultaneously from 1997 to 2006 on a micrometeorological platform, located at the top of a 4-story building. An objective procedure, including 2-step filtering and dome emission effect correction, was used to evaluate the quality of the 9-yr-long LW dataset. The comparison between LW values observed and yielded by the Surface Radiation Budget project shows spatial and temporal agreement, indicating that monthly and annual average values of LW observed in one point of Sao Paulo can be used as representative of the entire metropolitan region of Sao Paulo. The maximum monthly averaged value of the LW is observed during summer (389 +/- 14 W m(-2): January), and the minimum is observed during winter (332 +/- 12 W m(-2); July). The effective emissivity follows the LW and shows a maximum in summer (0.907 +/- 0.032; January) and a minimum in winter (0.818 +/- 0.029; June). The mean cloud effect, identified objectively by comparing the monthly averaged values of the LW during clear-sky days and all-sky conditions, intensified the monthly average LW by about 32.0 +/- 3.5 W m(-2) and the atmospheric effective emissivity by about 0.088 +/- 0.024. In August, the driest month of the year in Sao Paulo, the diurnal evolution of the LW shows a minimum (325 +/- 11 W m(-2)) at 0900 LT and a maximum (345 12 W m-2) at 1800 LT, which lags behind (by 4 h) the maximum diurnal variation of the screen temperature. The diurnal evolution of effective emissivity shows a minimum (0.781 +/- 0.027) during daytime and a maximum (0.842 +/- 0.030) during nighttime. The diurnal evolution of all-sky condition and clear-sky day differences in the effective emissivity remain relatively constant (7% +/- 1%), indicating that clouds do not change the emissivity diurnal pattern. The relationship between effective emissivity and screen air temperature and between effective emissivity and water vapor is complex. During the night, when the planetary boundary layer is shallower, the effective emissivity can be estimated by screen parameters. During the day, the relationship between effective emissivity and screen parameters varies from place to place and depends on the planetary boundary layer process. Because the empirical expressions do not contain enough information about the diurnal variation of the vertical stratification of air temperature and moisture in Sao Paulo, they are likely to fail in reproducing the diurnal variation of the surface emissivity. The most accurate way to estimate the LW for clear-sky conditions in Sao Paulo is to use an expression derived from a purely empirical approach.

High spatial resolution spectroscopy of W51IRS 2E and IRS 2W: Two very massive young stars in early formation stages

We present K-band spectra of the near infrared counterparts to IRS 2E and IRS 2W which is associated with the ultracompact H II region W51d, both of them embedded sources in the Galactic compact H II region W51 IRS 2. The high spatial resolution observations were obtained with the laser guide star facility and Near-infrared Integral Field Spectrograph (NIFS) mounted at the Gemini-North observatory. The spectrum of the ionizing source of W51d shows the photospheric features N III ( 21155 angstrom) in emission and He II ( 21897 angstrom) in absorption which lead us to classify it as a young O3 type star. We detected CO overtone in emission at 23000 angstrom in the spectrum of IRS 2E, suggesting that it is a massive young object still surrounded by an accretion disk, probably transitioning from the hot core phase to an ultracompact H II region.

Seasonal Variation, Chemical Composition and Antioxidant activity of Brazilian Propolis Samples

Total phenolic contents, antioxidant activity and chemical composition of propolis samples from three localities of Minas Gerais state (southeast Brazil) were determined. Total phenolic contents were determined by the Folin-Ciocalteau method, antioxidant activity was evaluated by DPPH, using BHT as reference, and chemical composition was analyzed by GC/MS. Propolis from Itapecerica and Paula Candido municipalities were found to have high phenolic contents and pronounced antioxidant activity. From these extracts, 40 substances were identified, among them were simple phenylpropanoids, prenylated phenylpropanoids, sesqui- and diterpenoids. Quantitatively, the main constituent of both samples was allyl-3-prenylcinnamic acid. A sample from Virginopolis municipality had no detectable phenolic substances and contained mainly triterpenoids, the main constituents being alpha-and beta-amyrins. Methanolic extracts from Itapecerica and Paula Candido exhibited pronounced scavenging activity towards DPPH, indistinguishable from BHT activity. However, extracts from Virginopolis sample exhibited no antioxidant activity. Total phenolic substances, GC/MS analyses and antioxidant activity of samples from Itapecerica collected monthly over a period of 1 year revealed considerable variation. No correlation was observed between antioxidant activity and either total phenolic contents or contents of artepillin C and other phenolic substances, as assayed by CG/MS analysis.

Spatial patterns in the brood combs of Nannotrigona testaceicornis (Hymenoptera: Meliponinae): male clusters

Genetic models of sex and caste determination in eusocial stingless bees suggest specific patterns of male, worker and gyne cell distribution in the brood comb. Conflict between queen and laying workers over male parentage and center-periphery gradients of conditions, such as food and temperature, could also contribute to non-random spatial configuration. We converted the positions of the hexagonal cells in a brood comb to Cartesian coordinates, labeled by sex or caste of the individuals inside. To detect and locate clustered patterns, the mapped brood combs were evaluated by indexes of dispersion (MMC, mean distance of cells of a given category from their centroid) and eccentricity (DMB, distance between this centroid and the overall brood comb centroid) that we developed. After randomizing the labels and recalculating the indexes, we calculated probabilities that the original values had been generated by chance. We created sets of binary brood combs in which males were aggregated, regularly or randomly distributed among females. These stylized maps were used to describe the power of MMC and DMB, and they were applied to evaluate the male distribution in the sampled Nannotrigona testaceicornis brood combs. MMC was very sensitive to slight deviations from a perfectly rounded clump; DMB detected any asymmetry in the location of these compact to fuzzy clusters. Six of the 82 brood combs of N. testaceicornis that we analyzed had more than nine males, distributed according to variations in spatial patterns, as indicated by the two indexes.

Genetic Variation among Major Human Geographic Groups Supports a Peculiar Evolutionary Trend in PAX9

A total of 172 persons from nine South Amerindian, three African and one Eskimo populations were studied in relation to the Paired box gene 9 (PAX9) exon 3 (138 base pairs) as well as its 5' and 3' flanking intronic segments (232 bp and 220 bp, respectively) and integrated with the information available for the same genetic region from individuals of different geographical origins. Nine mutations were scored in exon 3 and six in its flanking regions; four of them are new South American tribe-specific singletons. Exon3 nucleotide diversity is several orders of magnitude higher than its intronic regions. Additionally, a set of variants in the PAX9 and 101 other genes related with dentition can define at least some dental morphological differences between Sub-Saharan Africans and non-Africans, probably associated with adaptations after the modern human exodus from Africa. Exon 3 of PAX9 could be a good molecular example of how evolvability works.

Leishmania-Specific Surface Antigens Show Sub-Genus Sequence Variation and Immune Recognition

Background: A family of hydrophilic acylated surface (HASP) proteins, containing extensive and variant amino acid repeats, is expressed at the plasma membrane in infective extracellular (metacyclic) and intracellular (amastigote) stages of Old World Leishmania species. While HASPs are antigenic in the host and can induce protective immune responses, the biological functions of these Leishmania-specific proteins remain unresolved. Previous genome analysis has suggested that parasites of the sub-genus Leishmania (Viannia) have lost HASP genes from their genomes. Methods/Principal Findings: We have used molecular and cellular methods to analyse HASP expression in New World Leishmania mexicana complex species and show that, unlike in L. major, these proteins are expressed predominantly following differentiation into amastigotes within macrophages. Further genome analysis has revealed that the L. (Viannia) species, L. (V.) braziliensis, does express HASP-like proteins of low amino acid similarity but with similar biochemical characteristics, from genes present on a region of chromosome 23 that is syntenic with the HASP/SHERP locus in Old World Leishmania species and the L. (L.) mexicana complex. A related gene is also present in Leptomonas seymouri and this may represent the ancestral copy of these Leishmania-genus specific sequences. The L. braziliensis HASP-like proteins (named the orthologous (o) HASPs) are predominantly expressed on the plasma membrane in amastigotes and are recognised by immune sera taken from 4 out of 6 leishmaniasis patients tested in an endemic region of Brazil. Analysis of the repetitive domains of the oHASPs has shown considerable genetic variation in parasite isolates taken from the same patients, suggesting that antigenic change may play a role in immune recognition of this protein family. Conclusions/Significance: These findings confirm that antigenic hydrophilic acylated proteins are expressed from genes in the same chromosomal region in species across the genus Leishmania. These proteins are surface-exposed on amastigotes (although L. (L.) major parasites also express HASPB on the metacyclic plasma membrane). The central repetitive domains of the HASPs are highly variant in their amino acid sequences, both within and between species, consistent with a role in immune recognition in the host.

Effect of spatial inhomogeneity on the mapping between strongly interacting fermions and weakly interacting spins

A combined analytical and numerical study is performed of the mapping between strongly interacting fermions and weakly interacting spins, in the framework of the Hubbard, t-J, and Heisenberg models. While for spatially homogeneous models in the thermodynamic limit the mapping is thoroughly understood, we here focus on aspects that become relevant in spatially inhomogeneous situations, such as the effect of boundaries, impurities, superlattices, and interfaces. We consider parameter regimes that are relevant for traditional applications of these models, such as electrons in cuprates and manganites, and for more recent applications to atoms in optical lattices. The rate of the mapping as a function of the interaction strength is determined from the Bethe-Ansatz for infinite systems and from numerical diagonalization for finite systems. We show analytically that if translational symmetry is broken through the presence of impurities, the mapping persists and is, in a certain sense, as local as possible, provided the spin-spin interaction between two sites of the Heisenberg model is calculated from the harmonic mean of the onsite Coulomb interaction on adjacent sites of the Hubbard model. Numerical calculations corroborate these findings also in interfaces and superlattices, where analytical calculations are more complicated.