A new South American network to study the atmospheric electric field and its variations related to geophysical phenomena

In this paper we present the capability of a new network of field mill sensors to monitor the atmospheric electric field at various locations in South America; we also show some early results. The main objective of the new network is to obtain the characteristic Universal Time diurnal curve of the atmospheric electric field in fair weather, known as the Carnegie curve. The Carnegie curve is closely related to the current sources flowing in the Global Atmospheric Electric Circuit so that another goal is the study of this relationship on various time scales (transient/monthly/seasonal/annual). Also, by operating this new network, we may also study departures of the Carnegie curve from its long term average value related to various solar, geophysical and atmospheric phenomena such as the solar cycle, solar flares and energetic charged particles, galactic cosmic rays, seismic activity and specific meteorological events. We then expect to have a better understanding of the influence of these phenomena on the Global Atmospheric Electric Circuit and its time-varying behavior.

Probabilistic skill in ensemble seasonal forecasts

Simulation models are widely employed to make probability forecasts of future conditions on seasonal to annual lead times. Added value in such forecasts is reflected in the information they add, either to purely empirical statistical models or to simpler simulation models. An evaluation of seasonal probability forecasts from the Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble system for seasonal to inTERannual prediction (DEMETER) and ENSEMBLES multi-model ensemble experiments is presented. Two particular regions are considered: Nino3.4 in the Pacific and the Main Development Region in the Atlantic; these regions were chosen before any spatial distribution of skill was examined. The ENSEMBLES models are found to have skill against the climatological distribution on seasonal time-scales. For models in ENSEMBLES that have a clearly defined predecessor model in DEMETER, the improvement from DEMETER to ENSEMBLES is discussed. Due to the long lead times of the forecasts and the evolution of observation technology, the forecast-outcome archive for seasonal forecast evaluation is small; arguably, evaluation data for seasonal forecasting will always be precious. Issues of information contamination from in-sample evaluation are discussed and impacts (both positive and negative) of variations in cross-validation protocol are demonstrated. Other difficulties due to the small forecast-outcome archive are identified. The claim that the multi-model ensemble provides a ‘better’ probability forecast than the best single model is examined and challenged. Significant forecast information beyond the climatological distribution is also demonstrated in a persistence probability forecast. The ENSEMBLES probability forecasts add significantly more information to empirical probability forecasts on seasonal time-scales than on decadal scales. Current operational forecasts might be enhanced by melding information from both simulation models and empirical models. Simulation models based on physical principles are sometimes expected, in principle, to outperform empirical models; direct comparison of their forecast skill provides information on progress toward that goal.

Time-variations in commodity price jumps

In this paper, we study jumps in commodity prices. Unlike assumed in existing models of commodity price dynamics, a simple analysis of the data reveals that the probability of tail events is not constant but depends on the time of the year, i.e. exhibits seasonality. We propose a stochastic volatility jump–diffusion model to capture this seasonal variation. Applying the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methodology, we estimate our model using 20 years of futures data from four different commodity markets. We find strong statistical evidence to suggest that our model with seasonal jump intensity outperforms models featuring a constant jump intensity. To demonstrate the practical relevance of our findings, we show that our model typically improves Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecasts.

Seasonal forecasts of tropical cyclone activity in a high-atmospheric-resolution coupled prediction system

Seasonal forecast skill of the basinwide and regional tropical cyclone (TC) activity in an experimental coupled prediction system based on the ECMWF System 4 is assessed. As part of a collaboration between the Center for Ocean–Land–Atmosphere Studies (COLA) and the ECMWF called Project Minerva, the system is integrated at the atmospheric horizontal spectral resolutions of T319, T639, and T1279. Seven-month hindcasts starting from 1 May for the years 1980–2011 are produced at all three resolutions with at least 15 ensemble members. The Minerva system demonstrates statistically significant skill for retrospective forecasts of TC frequency and accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) in the North Atlantic (NA), eastern North Pacific (EP), and western North Pacific. While the highest scores overall are achieved in the North Pacific, the skill in the NA appears to be limited by an overly strong influence of the tropical Pacific variability. Higher model resolution improves skill scores for the ACE and, to a lesser extent, the TC frequency, even though the influence of large-scale climate variations on these TC activity measures is largely independent of resolution changes. The biggest gain occurs in transition from T319 to T639. Significant skill in regional TC forecasts is achieved over broad areas of the Northern Hemisphere. The highest-resolution hindcasts exhibit additional locations with skill in the NA and EP, including land-adjacent areas. The feasibility of regional intensity forecasts is assessed. In the presence of the coupled model biases, the benefits of high resolution for seasonal TC forecasting may be underestimated.

Seasonal population dynamics and the genetic structure of the mosquito vector Aedes aegypti in São Paulo, Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Seasonal fecundity and body size in Chrysomya megacephala (Fabricius) (Diptera: Calliphoridae)

Neste estudo a variação sazonal da fecundidade, tamanhos de asa e tíbia, foi investigada em populações naturais de Chrysomya megacephala (Fabricius) a fim de determinar variações nas características bionômicas da espécie em função da sazonalidade. Uma trajetória temporal relativamente constante foi encontrada para fecundidade, tamanhos de asa e tíbia durante doze meses. Correlações positivas e significativas entre tamanho da asa e temperatura, tamanho da tíbia e temperatura e tamanhos da asa e tíbia foram observadas. As implicações desses resultados para a dinâmica populacional de C. megacephala foram discutidas.

Seasonal population dynamics in Lucilia eximia (Wiedemann) (Diptera: Calliphoridae)

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Diel variations in decapod catch rate and size of captured individuals in a subtropical area of Brazil

Diel variations in decapod crustaceans catch rate, as well as variations in size of sampled individuals, were investigated in a sublittoral portion of Ubatuba Bay (23 degrees 20', 23 degrees 35'S and 44 degrees 50', 45 degrees 14'W) in order to detect differential patterns of occurrence. Three replicate trawls, each enclosing a 2,500 m(2) area, were performed at a median depth of 3.5 m during the waning moon period, in 3 consecutive summer and winter months. Trawls were conducted at dawn, noon, dusk and midnight. Hydrological and substratum features were monitored. Penaeoideans did not show a significant diel catch rate variation during the sampling periods, but the catch rate of brachyurans was highest at dusk and midnight during winter (p < 0.01). Fixing diel variation, catch rates of both brachyurans and penaeoideans are subjected to significant seasonal differences (p < 0.05). The largest specimens of Callinectes ornatus, Xiphopenaeus kroyeri, Rimapenaeus constrictus and Farfantepenaeus spp were found at twilight during summer. Differences on size of captured individuals mainly in samples of portunids and penaeids taken during the course of the day evidences that significant daily movements take place. This confirms that activity alterations depend on characteristics of daily schedules and on environmental demands of studied species.

Feeding selectivity of ichthyofauna in a tropical stream: space-time variations in trophic plasticity

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Seasonal diet shifts of seven fish species in an Atlantic rainforest stream in Southeastern Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Variations in tree community composition and structure in a fragment of tropical semideciduous forest in southeastern Brazil related to different human disturbance histories

In an area of tropical seasonal semideciduous forest, the soil characteristics, floristic composition, physiognomic structure, and the distribution of three regeneration and three dispersal guilds were studied for four stands within the forest that had documented histories of varying degrees of human disturbance. The aim was to study forest regeneration in areas of preserved forest and secondary forest, with parts of both types of forest experiencing either 'intensive' or 'occasional' cattle trampling. The study was carried out in the Sebastiao Aleixo da Silva Ecological Station, Bauru, São Paulo State, Brazil. Two stands were called 'secondary' because they corresponded to forest tracts that were felled and occupied by crops and pastures in the past and then abandoned to forest regeneration ca. 40 years before this study. The other two stands, called 'preserved', corresponded to areas of the fragment where the forest has been maintained with only minor human impacts. The arboreal component of the tree community (diameter at breast height or dbh greater than or equal to 5 cm) was sampled in 20 plots of 40 m x 40 m, and the subarboreal component (diameter at the base of the stem or dbs < 5 cm and height greater than or equal to 0.5 m) in subplots of 40 m x 2 m. Physiognomic features, such as canopy height and density of climbing plants, were registered all over a 5 m x 5 m gridline laid on the sample plots. Soil bulk samples were collected for chemical and textural analyses. Most detected differences contrasted the secondary to the preserved forest stands. The soils of the secondary stands showed higher proportions of sand and lower levels of mineral nutrients and organic matter than those of the preserved stands, probably due to higher losses by leaching and erosion. Compared to the secondary stands, the preserved ones had higher proportions of tall trees, higher mean canopy height, lower species diversity, higher abundance of autochorous and shade-tolerant climax species, and lower abundance of pioneer and light-demanding climax species. Despite the high proportion of species shared by the preserved and secondary stands (108 out of 139), they differed consistently in terms of density of the most abundant species. on the other hand, the secondary and preserved stands held similar values for tree density and basal area, suggesting that 40 years were enough to restore these features. Effects of cattle trampling on the vegetation were detected for the frequency of trees of anemochorous and zoochorous species, which were higher in the stands under occasional and intensive cattle trampling, respectively. The density of thin climbers was lower in the stands with intensive trampling. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Seasonal testicular changes in Dendropsophus minutus Peters, 1872 (Anura, Hylidae)

The reproductive cycle in anurans may be either continuous or discontinuous. These differences may be connected to seasonal climate changes and/or to anthropic activity. Forty adult male individuals of the Dendropsophus minutus species were collected during one year, in the municipality of Chapada dos Guimaraes (Mato Grosso, Brazil). The testicles were studied under light and transmission electron microscopy. No variations were observed when the diameter of the seminiferous tubules and the thickness of the interstitial tissue were studied. However, changes in spermatogenesis were conspicuous and indicated that the reproductive cycle of D. minutus in Chapada dos Guimaraes is discontinuous and seems related to variations in air temperature and rainfall.

Seasonal changes in the prostatic complex of Artibeus planirostris (Chiroptera: Phyllostomidae)

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Can the pattern of juvenile recruitment and population structure of the speckled swimming crab Arenaeus cribrarius (Decapoda: Brachyura) be determined by geographical variations?

This study evaluated the effect of environmental stimuli and selective pressures in different geographical areas along a latitudinal gradient, on the juvenile recruitment, population structure, and sex ratio of the speckled swimming crab Arenaeus cribrarius. Samples were collected monthly during 1 year in three locations along the Brazilian coast: Macaé, state of Rio de Janeiro (MAC, 22°47′ S, 41°45′ W); Ubatuba, São Paulo (UBA, 23°27′ S, 44°58′ W); and São Francisco do Sul, Santa Catarina (SFS, 26°08′ S, 48°34′ W). The specimens of A. cribrarius were identified, counted, sexed, and measured for maximum carapace width (CW). The largest juvenile found was in UBA (47.7 ± 1.36 mm); and the largest adult females and males in MAC (74.26 ± 0.93 and 77.04 ± 0.79 mm, respectively). Recruitment in MAC was continuous, whereas in UBA and SFS, recruitment showed seasonal characteristics. The sex ratio was skewed toward females only in UBA; in MAC and SFS, males and females were present in equal proportions. These results indicate that geographical variations can cause differences in the recruitment and population structure of A. cribrarius. These regional differences call attention to the necessity for improved management plans and control of shrimp fishing, which can affect population patterns such as juvenile recruitment, population structure and life history of the target species and species that are caught in bycatch from shrimping, such as the swimming crab A. cribrarius.

Seasonal fluctuation of soil carbon dioxide emission in differently managed pastures

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)