A magyar pénzpolitika nemzetközi meghatározottságáról

A magyar gazdaságpolitikát negyed évszázada kritikusan befolyásolja a nemzetközi finanszírozási helyzet, a pénzügyi piacokhoz és a nemzetközi pénzintézetekhez fűződő viszony. A 2010-től folytatott magyar politika fontos vonatkozásokban eltér a nemzetközi szervezetek ajánlásaitól. Európában a recesszió alatt a gazdaságpolitikák sokfélesége mutatkozott meg: a korábbi doktrinális egyöntetűség helyébe a gazdasági felfogások pluralizálódása lépett, gyakoribbak az aktivista kormánypolitikák. A recessziós időszak után azonban nem állt vissza a status quo, hanem elnyúló konszolidációs szakasz következett, amelynek során a nemzetközi pénzügyi piacok már kritikusabbak a nem szabványos kormányzati megoldásokkal szemben. Az európai intézményrendszer pedig a közös szabályok által kikényszerített, pénzügyi fegyelem irányába mozdult el 2009 után. Mindezek következtében az ideiglenesen tágabbá váló magyar gazdaságpolitikai mozgástér ismét visszaszűkülhet az európai konszolidációs erőfeszítések miatt.

Az autóipar szerkezeti átrendeződése – Vállalati stratégiák és a válság hatásai (Structural change in the automotive industry – corporate strategies and the impact of the crisis)

Az írás a globális értékláncok élén álló autóipari cégek világgazdasági válságra adott reakcióit foglalja össze. Megállapítja, hogy a válságnak messze nincs vége: az iparág globális átrendeződése folytatódik. A globális értékláncokba sikeresen betagozódott közép-európai autóipari klaszter ezeknek a folyamatoknak mindmáig nyertese volt. Számolni kell azonban azzal, hogy továbbra is sok a technológiai és a piaci bizonytalanság: az új szereplők belépése, új üzleti modellek elterjedése hosszabb távon felboríthatja a jelenlegi status quo-t, és veszélyeztetheti a hagyományos autóipari befektetőiket munkabér-alapú versenyképességgel megtartani próbáló közép- és kelet-európai országok pozícióit. Az autóipari működő tőkét fogadó közép-kelet-európai országok számára hosszabb távon veszélyt jelenthet az autóipari üzleti modellek átalakulása, a gyártás teljes kiszervezése komplex gyártási szolgáltatást vállaló cégekhez, mivel ez esetben az értéklánc vezető vállalatai bezárhatják a régióban működő gyártóbázisaikat. Az értékláncok élén álló globális cégek „menekülés a minőségbe” stratégiája helyi szinten is követhető, követendő, a működő tőkét fogadó országok versenyképessége kizárólag a helyi leányvállalatok állandó „feljebb lépésével” tartható fenn. ______ This paper summarizes lead firms’ reactions to crisis in global automotive value chains. The paper advances five theses. Author argues that crisis is not over yet, the global restructuring of the industry continues. Actors in the CEE automotive cluster have successfully become integrated into global value chains and have thereby been the winners of past restructuring processes. Nevertheless, technological and market uncertainties prevail: entry of new economic actors and the diffusion of new business models may, in the long run, disrupt the current status quo and jeopardise the world economic position of CEE countries that have been relying solely on their labour cost advantages to sustain direct investment inflows in their automotive industries. In the long run the automotive industries of Central and Eastern European (CEE) economies may become threatened by the transformation of the prevailing automotive business model, the outsourcing of manufacturing and related support activities to complex manufacturing services providers, which could lead to the closure of lead firms’ manufacturing facilities in CEE. Lead firms’ increased focus on high quality high value adding activities strategy can and should be followed by local subsidiaries through a continuous strive for upgrading.

Dynamic capabilities and strategic paradox: a case study

Today’s business leaders must constantly review and develop their firm’s abilities to adapt to and benefit from external changes. Dynamic capabilities are the capacity of an organization to purposefully create, extend or modify its resource base. They enable it to exploit business, technological and market opportunities and adapt to market changes, an ability more often observed in highly dynamic industries, such as consumer electronics or telecommunications. Using the case study method, this article identifies dynamic capabilities in traditional, less dynamic industries when faced with a sudden drop of revenue. Four distinct routines emerge, namely structure and practices enduring time-sensitive strategic decision-making by the tice, and a culture encouraging learning and coevolving. Seemingly strategic paradox objectives encourage the management team to question the status quo and, when managed well, transform the tensions between old and new into an ability to advance superior ideas faster.

The examination of the relationships among secondary principals' leadership behaviors, school climate, and student achievement in an urban context

School principals' leadership is key to successful school reform, as is increased student achievement. This nonexperimental ex post facto study tested relationships among secondary school principals' leadership behaviors, school climate, and student achievement. Of 165 secondary school principals from the three largest school districts in South Florida, 58 completed three online survey instruments: the Leadership Practices Inventory, School Climate Inventory-Revised, and researcher-designed Demographic Questionnaire. Student achievement was measured by students' scores on the reading and mathematics Florida Comprehensive Assessment Tests. Three null hypotheses tested relationships among (a) five principals' leadership behaviors and seven domains of school climate; (b) principals' leadership behaviors and student achievement; and (c) principals' leadership behaviors, school climate, and student achievement. Multiple linear regressions were used to determine the degree to which the independent variables predicted the dependent variables for the first two hypotheses. ANOVAs tested possible group differences between the demographic and research variables as controls for the third hypothesis. Partial correlational analyses tested the strength and direction of relationships among leadership behaviors, climate, and achievement. Results revealed partial support of the hypotheses. None of the leadership variables significantly predicted school climate. No significant relationships were found among the five leadership behaviors and student achievement. Demographic group differences in school climate and student achievement were marginally significant. The leadership behaviors of Inspiring a Shared Vision and Enabling Others to Act were positively linked to reading achievement. Partial correlations were found (r .27 to −.35) among school climate variables of Order, Involvement, and Expectation and achievement variables. The Modeling the Way leadership variable was negatively associated with reading achievement. After controlling for gender, years at current school, and years in the district, partial positive correlations were found among leadership, school climate, and student achievement. Inspiring a Shared Vision, Enabling Others to Act, Encouraging the Heart, and Challenging the Process leadership variables were partially correlated to Order, Leadership (Instructional), and Expectation climate variables. Study results should provide policymakers and educators with a leadership profile for school leaders challenging the status quo who can create schools for enhanced student learning and relevance to the needs of students, families, and society.

Releituras de Celso Furtado: Brasil (2001-2012)

Seeking to explain the causes leading to the developme nt and attempt to understand it, some economists were organized around central ideas, culminating therefore in the development of economic theories. The knowledge accumulated over the work by these scholars will make a significant contribution in shaping t he thinking of Celso Monteiro Furtado . Furtado developed numerous studies trying to understand the dynamics of underdeveloped structures, what their basic characteristics and the main factors responsible for the perpetuation of the status quo of these stru ctures. Starting from the question "What remains of underdevelopment characteristics in Brazil in the light of the thought of Celso Furtado?", This work is guided by the hypothesis that Brazil has not suffered between 2001 and 2012, significant structural changes that it could classifies it as a developed country. It has been for this work as a general objective to analyze the underdevelopment of elements that persist in Brazil in the light of the thought of Furtado. And as specific, characterize economic d evelopment, from the study of the classical schools, Marxist, neoclassical, Kaleckian, Keynesian and ECLAC of economic thought; describe the economic underdevelopment in light of Celso Furtado ideas; and, finally, evaluate from the particular epistemology of thought Furtado Brazilian economic reality, with emphasis on the analysis of underdevelopment elements. It was found that although there have been important advances in some sectors, the country maintains a significant structural heterogeneity. Hence th e relevance of Furtado's contribution to understanding the economic underdevelopment, because he is still a constant in our reality.

The main criteria of biomass selection for energy generation in Brazil

The principal aim of this paper is to examine the criteria assisting in the selection of biomass for energy generation in Brazil. To reach the aim, this paper adopts case study and survey research methods to collect information from four biomass energy case companies and solicits opinions from experts. The data gathered are analysed in line with a wide range of related data, including selection criteria for biomass and its importance, energy policies in Brazil, availability of biomass feedstock in Brazil and its characteristics, as well as status quo of biomass-based energy in Brazil. The findings of the paper demonstrate that there are ten main criteria in biomass selection for energy generation in Brazil. They comprise geographical conditions, availability of biomass feedstock, demand satisfaction, feedstock costs and oil prices, energy content of biomass feedstock, business and economic growth, CO2 emissions of biomass end-products, effects on soil, water and biodiversity, job creation and local community support, as well as conversion technologies. Furthermore, the research also found that these main criteria cannot be grouped on the basis of sustainability criteria, nor ranked by their importance as there is correlation between each criterion such as a cause and effect relationship, as well as some overlapping areas. Consequently, this means that when selecting biomass more comprehensive consideration is advisable.

Naming the pain in requirements engineering: Contemporary problems, causes, and effects in practice

Requirements Engineering (RE) has received much attention in research and practice due to its importance to software project success. Its inter-disciplinary nature, the dependency to the customer, and its inherent uncertainty still render the discipline diffcult to investigate. This results in a lack of empirical data. These are necessary, however, to demonstrate which practically relevant RE problems exist and to what extent they matter. Motivated by this situation, we initiated the Naming the Pain in Requirements Engineering (NaPiRE) initiative which constitutes a globally distributed, bi-yearly replicated family of surveys on the status quo and problems in practical RE.

In this article, we report on the analysis of data obtained from 228 companies in 10 countries. We apply Grounded Theory to the data obtained from NaPiRE and reveal which contemporary problems practitioners encounter. To this end, we analyse 21 problems derived from the literature with respect to their relevance and criticality in dependency to their context, and we complement this picture with a cause-effect analysis showing the causes and effects surrounding the most critical problems.

Our results give us a better understanding of which problems exist and how they manifest themselves in practical environments. Thus, we provide a rst step to ground contributions to RE on empirical observations which, by now, were dominated by conventional wisdom only.

New Organizational Leadership: Nonstate Actors in Global Economic Governance

States and international organizations have found irresistible cause in a globalizing world to coopt nonstate actors (NGOs, private standard setters and so forth) to manage the manifold problems arising under their stretched mandates and resources. The pooling of capacities in the pursuit of common goals seems perfectly sensible. Yet although the strategy of cooptation has become a policy of choice, policy makers often lack full knowledge of its implications. As Philip Selznick first showed, cooptation can have unintended consequences, shifting leadership from one organization to another. We place this fertile insight in a better specified analytical framework. That is, one capable of explaining when and how leadership shifts occur and where the status quo leaders will remain at the helm. Using original interview data and structured focused comparisons to test the framework, we reveal dramatic variation in leadership changes following the cooptation of outside actors in global financial and environmental governance.

Décentralisation et allocation des ressources : les détours de la municipalisation du système de santé brésilien.

Dans cette thèse, nous avons analysé le déroulement d’un processus de municipalisation du système de santé, effectué au Rio Grande do Norte (RN), un des états fédérés du nord-est du Brésil. En tenant compte des contextes historiques d’implantation, nous avons centré notre attention sur la contribution des acteurs impliqués dans ce processus, spécialement dans l’allocation des ressources financières du système. Les croyances, perceptions, attentes, représentations, connaissances, intérêts, l’ensemble des facteurs qui contribuent à la constitution des capacités cognitives de ces acteurs, favorise la réflexivité sur leurs actions et la définition de stratégies diverses de façon à poursuivre leurs objectifs dans le système de santé. Ils sont vus ainsi comme des agents compétents et réflexifs, capables de s’approprier des propriétés structurelles du système de santé (règles et ressources), de façon à prendre position dans l’espace social de ce système pour favoriser le changement ou la permanence du statu quo. Au cours du processus de structuration du Système unique de santé brésilien, le SUS, la municipalisation a été l’axe le plus développé d’un projet de réforme de la santé. Face aux contraintes contextuelles et de la dynamique complexe des espaces sociaux de la santé, les acteurs réformistes n’ont pas pu suivre le chemin de l’utopie idéalisée; quelques détours ont été parcourus. Au RN, la municipalisation de la santé a constitué un processus très complexe où la triade centralisation/décentralisation/recentralisation a suivi son cours au milieu de négociations, de conflits, d’alliances, de disputes, de coopérations, de compétitions. Malgré les contraintes des contextes successifs, des propriétés structurelles du système et des dynamiques sociales dans le système de santé, quelques changements sont intervenus : la construction de leaderships collectifs; l’émergence d’une culture de négociation; la création des structures et des espaces sociaux du système, favorisant les rencontres des acteurs dans chaque municipalité et au niveau de l’état fédéré; un apprentissage collectif sur le processus de structuration du SUS; une grande croissance des services de première ligne permettant d’envisager une inversion de tendance du modèle de prestation des services; les premiers pas vers la rupture avec la culture bureaucratique du système. Le SUS reste prisonnier de quelques enjeux institutionnalisés dans ce système de santé : la dépendance du secteur privé et de quelques groupes de professionnels; le financement insuffisant et instable; la situation des ressources humaines. Les changements arrivés sont convergents, incrémentiels, lents; ils résultent d’actions normatives, délibérées, formalisées. Elles aussi sont issues de l’inattendu, de l’informel, du paradoxe; quelques-unes plus localisées, d’autres plus généralisées, pour une courte ou une plus longue durée.

Using Information on Unconstrained Student Demand to Improve University Course Schedules

We examine how using information on unconstrained demand can improve operational decisions. Specifically, we examine the widespread problem of developing course schedules in not-for-profit university settings. We investigate the potential benefit of incorporating, into the scheduling process, information on the unconstrained demand of students for courses. Prior to this study, the status quo in our college, like that in a large proportion of university settings, was building the course schedule to avoid time conflicts between required courses and to minimize time conflicts between designated groups of courses, such as electives in a particular area. Compared to the status quo approach, we find that, based on three semester's worth of actual data, an approach that explicitly considers students’ course preferences improves a student-based metric of schedule quality on the order of over 4% (which is the equivalent, in our setting, of improving service for over 20% of students).

NOD2 mutations and colorectal cancer - Where do we stand?

Due to the overwhelming burden of colorectal cancer (CRC), great effort has been placed on identifying genetic mutations that contribute to disease development and progression. One of the most studied polymorphisms that could potentially increase susceptibility to CRC involves the nucleotide-binding and oligomerization-domain containing 2 (NOD2) gene. There is growing evidence that the biological activity of NOD2 is far greater than previously thought and a link with intestinal microbiota and mucosal immunity is increasingly sought after. In fact, microbial composition may be an important contributor not only to inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD) but also to CRC. Recent studies have showed that deficient NOD2 function confers a communicable risk of colitis and CRC. Despite the evidence from experimental models, population-based studies that tried to link certain NOD2 polymorphisms and an increase in CRC risk have been described as conflicting. Significant geographic discrepancies in the frequency of such polymorphisms and different interpretations of the results may have limited the conclusions of those studies. Since being first associated to IBD and CRC, our understanding of the role of this gene has come a long way, and it is tempting to postulate that it may contribute to identify individuals with susceptible genetic background that may benefit from early CRC screening programs or in predicting response to current therapeutic tools. The aim of this review is to clarify the status quo of NOD2 mutations as genetic risk factors to chronic inflammation and ultimately to CRC. The use of NOD2 as a predictor of certain phenotypic characteristics of the disease will be analyzed as well.

Hierarchical Forest Management Planning: A Bilevel Wood Supply Modelling Approach

Le processus de planification forestière hiérarchique présentement en place sur les terres publiques risque d’échouer à deux niveaux. Au niveau supérieur, le processus en place ne fournit pas une preuve suffisante de la durabilité du niveau de récolte actuel. À un niveau inférieur, le processus en place n’appuie pas la réalisation du plein potentiel de création de valeur de la ressource forestière, contraignant parfois inutilement la planification à court terme de la récolte. Ces échecs sont attribuables à certaines hypothèses implicites au modèle d’optimisation de la possibilité forestière, ce qui pourrait expliquer pourquoi ce problème n’est pas bien documenté dans la littérature. Nous utilisons la théorie de l’agence pour modéliser le processus de planification forestière hiérarchique sur les terres publiques. Nous développons un cadre de simulation itératif en deux étapes pour estimer l’effet à long terme de l’interaction entre l’État et le consommateur de fibre, nous permettant ainsi d’établir certaines conditions pouvant mener à des ruptures de stock. Nous proposons ensuite une formulation améliorée du modèle d’optimisation de la possibilité forestière. La formulation classique du modèle d’optimisation de la possibilité forestière (c.-à-d., maximisation du rendement soutenu en fibre) ne considère pas que le consommateur de fibre industriel souhaite maximiser son profit, mais suppose plutôt la consommation totale de l’offre de fibre à chaque période, peu importe le potentiel de création de valeur de celle-ci. Nous étendons la formulation classique du modèle d’optimisation de la possibilité forestière afin de permettre l’anticipation du comportement du consommateur de fibre, augmentant ainsi la probabilité que l’offre de fibre soit entièrement consommée, rétablissant ainsi la validité de l’hypothèse de consommation totale de l’offre de fibre implicite au modèle d’optimisation. Nous modélisons la relation principal-agent entre le gouvernement et l’industrie à l’aide d’une formulation biniveau du modèle optimisation, où le niveau supérieur représente le processus de détermination de la possibilité forestière (responsabilité du gouvernement), et le niveau inférieur représente le processus de consommation de la fibre (responsabilité de l’industrie). Nous montrons que la formulation biniveau peux atténuer le risque de ruptures de stock, améliorant ainsi la crédibilité du processus de planification forestière hiérarchique. Ensemble, le modèle biniveau d’optimisation de la possibilité forestière et la méthodologie que nous avons développée pour résoudre celui-ci à l’optimalité, représentent une alternative aux méthodes actuellement utilisées. Notre modèle biniveau et le cadre de simulation itérative représentent un pas vers l’avant en matière de technologie de planification forestière axée sur la création de valeur. L’intégration explicite d’objectifs et de contraintes industrielles au processus de planification forestière, dès la détermination de la possibilité forestière, devrait favoriser une collaboration accrue entre les instances gouvernementales et industrielles, permettant ainsi d’exploiter le plein potentiel de création de valeur de la ressource forestière.

Self-archiving publications

This chapter discusses the historical development, current practice and future prospects of the self-archiving of research papers in open-access repositories (so-called 'e-print archives'). It describes how the development of interoperable e-print repositories in a number of subject communities has shown that self-archiving can benefit academic researchers (and potentially others) by enabling quick and easy access to the research literature and therefore maximising the impact potential of papers. Realising that the possible benefits are high and the technical entry barriers low, many organisations such as universities have recently tried to encourage widespread self-archiving by setting up institutional repositories. However, major barriers to self-archiving remain - most of them cultural and managerial. There are concerns about quality control, intellectual property rights, disturbing the publishing status quo, and workload. Ways in which these issues are currently being addressed are discussed in this chapter. A number of self-archiving initiatives in different countries have been set up to address the concerns and to kick-start e-print repository use. However, issues remain which require further investigation; those discussed in this chapter include discipline differences, definitions of 'publication', versioning problems, digital preservation, costing and funding models, and metadata standards. The ways in which these issues are resolved will be important in determining the future of self-archiving. Possible futures are discussed with particular reference to journal publishing and quality control. If widely adopted, self-archiving might come to assume a central place in the scholarly communication process, but a great deal of restructuring of the process needs to take place before this potential can be realised.

Different approaches to municipal solid waste management in Brazil : case study Rio de Janeiro

Inadequate final disposal of municipal solid waste (MSW) is associated with significant greenhouse gas (GHG) emission, environmental, health and safety issues, space consumption, public health and developmental issues in general. The environmental impact of waste is mostly felt in developing countries, inadequate waste management and treatment solution, inadequate policies and outdated practices are some of the factors leading to the significantly high final disposal of waste in dumps in developing countries. Brazil and other developing countries are changing the status quo by adopting polices that will adequately address this problem of inadequate waste management and disposal. Life cycle analysis (LCA) identifies the potential environmental impact of a product though environmental impact assessment, International Organization for Standardization (ISO) created the ISO 14040 and ISO 14044 to serve as principle guidelines for conducting LCA. Various waste treatment solution was applied to identify the waste management solution with the least Global warming potential (GWP) for treating the MSW generated from the city of Rio de Janerio, while reducing significantly final waste disposed in landfill.

NOD2 mutations and colorectal cancer - Where do we stand?

Due to the overwhelming burden of colorectal cancer (CRC), great effort has been placed on identifying genetic mutations that contribute to disease development and progression. One of the most studied polymorphisms that could potentially increase susceptibility to CRC involves the nucleotide-binding and oligomerization-domain containing 2 (NOD2) gene. There is growing evidence that the biological activity of NOD2 is far greater than previously thought and a link with intestinal microbiota and mucosal immunity is increasingly sought after. In fact, microbial composition may be an important contributor not only to inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD) but also to CRC. Recent studies have showed that deficient NOD2 function confers a communicable risk of colitis and CRC. Despite the evidence from experimental models, population-based studies that tried to link certain NOD2 polymorphisms and an increase in CRC risk have been described as conflicting. Significant geographic discrepancies in the frequency of such polymorphisms and different interpretations of the results may have limited the conclusions of those studies. Since being first associated to IBD and CRC, our understanding of the role of this gene has come a long way, and it is tempting to postulate that it may contribute to identify individuals with susceptible genetic background that may benefit from early CRC screening programs or in predicting response to current therapeutic tools. The aim of this review is to clarify the status quo of NOD2 mutations as genetic risk factors to chronic inflammation and ultimately to CRC. The use of NOD2 as a predictor of certain phenotypic characteristics of the disease will be analyzed as well.