Refining Risk Estimates Using Models (Chapter 4)

In 2004 nineteen scientists from fourteen institutions in seven countries
collaborated in the landmark study described in chapter 2 (Thomas et al., 2004a). This chapter provides an overview of results of studies published subsequently and assesses how much, and why, new results differ from those of Thomas et al.
Some species distribution modeling (SDM) studies are directly comparable to the Thomas et al. estimates. Others using somewhat different methods nonetheless illuminate whether the original estimates were of the right order of magnitude. Climate similarity models (Williams et al., 2007; Williams and Jackson, 2007), biome, and vegetation dynamic models (Perry and Enright, 2006) have also been
applied in the context of climate change, providing interesting opportunities
for comparison and cross-validation with results from SDMs.
This chapter concludes with an assessment of whether the range of extinction risk estimates presented in 2004 can be narrowed, and whether the mean estimate should be revised upward or downward. To set the stage for these analyses, the chapter begins with brief reviews of advances in climate modeling and species modeling since 2004.

Encouraging lifestyle behaviour change in mild cognitive impairment patients:development of appropriate educational material

Objectives: A healthy lifestyle may help maintain cognitive function and reduce the risk of developing dementia. This study employed a focus group approach in order to gain insight into opinions of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) patients, caregivers (CG) and health professionals (HP) regarding lifestyle and its relationship with cognition. The qualitative data were used to design, develop and pilot test educational material (EM) to help encourage lifestyle behaviour change. Method: Data gathering phase: structured interviews were conducted with HP (n = 10), and focus groups with MCI patients (n = 24) and CG (n = 12). EM was developed and pilot tested with a new group of MCI patients (n = 21) and CG (n = 6). Results: HP alluded to the lack of clinical trial evidence for a lifestyle and MCI risk link. Although they felt that lifestyle modifications should be recommended to MCI patients, they appeared hesitant in communicating this information and discussions were often patient-driven. MCI patients lacked awareness of the lifestyle cognition link. Participants preferred EM to be concise, eye-catching and in written format, with personal delivery of information favoured. Most pilot testers approved of the EM but were heterogeneous in terms of lifestyle, willingness to change and support needed to change. Conclusion: MCI patients need to be made more aware of the importance of lifestyle for cognition. EM such as those developed here, which are specifically tailored for this population would be valuable for HP who, currently, appear reticent in initiating lifestyle-related discussions. Following further evaluation, the EM could be used in health promotion activities targeting MCI patients.

Defining the molecular basis for the first potent and selective orthosteric agonists of the FFA2 free fatty acid receptor

FFA2 is a G protein-coupled receptor that responds to short chain fatty acids (SCFAs) and has generated interest as a therapeutic target for metabolic and inflammatory conditions. However, definition of its functions has been slowed by a dearth of selective ligands that can distinguish it from the closely related FFA3. At present, the only selective ligands described for FFA2 suffer from either poor potency, altered signaling due to allosteric modes of action, or a lack of function at non-human orthologs of the receptor. To address the need for novel selective ligands, we synthesized two compounds potentially having FFA2 activity and examined the molecular basis of their function. These compounds were confirmed to be potent and selective FFA2 agonists that interact with the orthosteric binding site. A combination of ligand structure-activity relationship, pharmacological analysis, homology modeling, species ortholog comparisons and mutagenesis studies were then employed to define the molecular basis of selectivity and function of these ligands. From this, we identified key residues within both extracellular loop 2 (ECL2) and the transmembrane domain (TM) regions of FFA2 critical for ligand function. One of these ligands was active with reasonable potency at rodent orthologs of FFA2 and demonstrated the role of FFA2 in the regulation of lipolysis in murine 3T3-L1 adipocytes. Together, these findings describe the first potent and selective FFA2 orthosteric agonists and demonstrate key aspects of ligand interaction within the orthosteric binding site of FFA2 that will be invaluable in future ligand development at this receptor.

Targeting treatment resistant breast cancer stem cells with FKBPL and its peptide derivative, AD-01, via the CD44 pathway

PURPOSE: FKBPL and its peptide derivative, AD-01, have already demonstrated tumour growth inhibition and CD44 dependent anti-angiogenic activity. Here we explore the ability of AD-01 to target CD44 positive breast cancer stem cells (BCSCs). EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: Mammosphere assays and flow cytometry were utilized to analyse the effect of FKBPL overexpression/knockdown and AD-01 treatment ± other anti-cancer agents on BCSCs using breast cancer cell lines (MCF-7/MDA-231/ZR-75), primary patient samples and xenografts. Delays in tumour initiation were evaluated in vivo. The anti-stem cell mechanisms were determined using clonogenic assays, qPCR and immunofluorescence. RESULTS: AD-01 treatment was highly effective at inhibiting the BCSC population by reducing mammosphere forming efficiency (MFE) and ESA+/CD44+/CD24- or ALDH+ cell subpopulations in vitro and tumour initiation in vivo. The ability of AD-01 to inhibit the self-renewal capacity of BCSCs was confirmed; mammospheres were completely eradicated by the third generation. The mechanism appears to be due to AD-01-mediated BCSC differentiation demonstrated by a significant decrease in the number of holoclones and an associated increase in meroclones/paraclones; the stem cell markers, Nanog, Oct4 and Sox2, were also significantly reduced. Furthermore, we demonstrated additive inhibitory effects when AD-01 was combined with the Notch inhibitor, DAPT. AD-01 was also able to abrogate a chemo- and radiotherapy induced enrichment in BCSCs. Finally, FKBPL knockdown led to an increase in Nanog/Oct4/Sox2 and an increase in BCSCs, highlighting a role for endogenous FKBPL in stem cell signalling. CONCLUSIONS: AD-01 has dual anti-angiogenic and anti-BCSC activity which will be advantageous as this agent enters clinical trial.

CHARACTERISATION OF THE HUMAN ANTIBODY RESPONSE TO THE UK ANTHRAX VACCINE

Genome-wide association analysis identifies 13 new risk loci for schizophrenia

Schizophrenia is an idiopathic mental disorder with a heritable component and a substantial public health impact. We conducted a multi-stage genome-wide association study (GWAS) for schizophrenia beginning with a Swedish national sample (5,001 cases and 6,243 controls) followed by meta-analysis with previous schizophrenia GWAS (8,832 cases and 12,067 controls) and finally by replication of SNPs in 168 genomic regions in independent samples (7,413 cases, 19,762 controls and 581 parent-offspring trios). We identified 22 loci associated at genome-wide significance; 13 of these are new, and 1 was previously implicated in bipolar disorder. Examination of candidate genes at these loci suggests the involvement of neuronal calcium signaling. We estimate that 8,300 independent, mostly common SNPs (95% credible interval of 6,300-10,200 SNPs) contribute to risk for schizophrenia and that these collectively account for at least 32% of the variance in liability. Common genetic variation has an important role in the etiology of schizophrenia, and larger studies will allow more detailed understanding of this disorder.

Genetic variation in the 6p22.3 gene DTNBP1, the human ortholog of the mouse dysbindin gene, is associated with schizophrenia

Prior evidence has supported the existence of multiple susceptibility genes for schizophrenia. Multipoint linkage analysis of the 270 Irish high-density pedigrees that we have studied, as well as results from several other samples, suggest that at least one such gene is located in region 6p24-21. In the present study, family-based association analysis of 36 simple sequence-length-polymorphism markers and of 17 SNP markers implicated two regions, separated by approximately 7 Mb. The first region, and the focus of this report, is 6p22.3. In this region, single-nucleotide polymorphisms within the 140-kb gene DTNBP1 (dystrobrevin-binding protein 1, or dysbindin) are strongly associated with schizophrenia. Uncorrected, empirical P values produced by the program TRANSMIT were significant (P

Solvent induced phase inversion-based in situ forming controlled release drug delivery implants

In situ forming (ISF) drug delivery implants have gained tremendous levels of interest over the last few decades. This is due to their wide range of biomedical applications such as in tissue engineering, cell encapsulation, microfluidics, bioengineering and drug delivery. Drug delivery implants forming upon injection has shown a range of advantages which include localized drug delivery, easy and less invasive application, sustained drug action, ability to tailor drug delivery, reduction in side effects associated with systemic delivery and also improved patient compliance and comfort. Different factors such as temperature, pH, ions, and exchange of solvents are involved in in situ implant formation. This review especially focuses on ISF implants that are formed through solvent induced phase inversion (SPI) technique. The article critically reviews and compares a wide range of polymers, solvents, and co-solvents that have been used in SPI implant preparation for control release of a range of drug molecules. Major drawback of SPI systems has been their high burst release. In this regard, the article exhaustively discusses factors that affect the burst release and different modification strategies that has been utilised to reduce the burst effect from these implants. Performance and controversial issues associated with the use of different biocompatible solvents in SPI systems is also discussed. Biodegradation, formulation stability, methods of characterisation and sterilisation techniques of SPI systems is comprehensively reviewed. Furthermore, the review also examines current SPI-based marketed products, their therapeutic application and associated clinical data. It also exemplifies the interest of multi-billion dollar pharma companies worldwide for further developments of SPI systems to a range of therapeutic applications. The authors believe that this will be the first review article that extensively investigate and discusses studies done to date on SPI systems. In so doing, this article will undoubtedly serve as an enlightening tool for the scientists working in the concerned area.

A high resolution study of complex organic molecules in hot cores

We present the results of a line identification analysis using data from the IRAM Plateau de Bure Inferferometer, focusing on six massive star-forming hot cores: G31.41+0.31, G29.96-0.02, G19.61-0.23, G10.62-0.38, G24.78+0.08A1 and G24.78+0.08A2. We identify several transitions of vibrationally excited methyl formate (HCOOCH$_3$) for the first time in these objects as well as transitions of other complex molecules, including ethyl cyanide (C$_2$H$_5$CN), and isocyanic acid (HNCO). We also postulate a detection of one transition of glycolaldehyde (CH$_2$(OH)CHO) in two new hot cores. We find G29.96-0.02, G19.61-0.23, G24.78+0.08A1 and 24.78+0.08A2 to be chemically very similar. G31.41+0.31, however, is chemically different: it manifests a larger chemical inventory and has significantly larger column densities. We suggest that it may represent a different evolutionary stage to the other hot cores in the sample, or it may surround a star with a higher mass. We derive column densities for methyl formate in G31.41+0.31, using the rotation diagram method, of $\times$10$^{17}$ cm$^{-2}$ and a T$_{rot}$ of $\sim$170 K. For G29.96-0.02, G24.78+0.08A1 and G24.78+0.08A2, glycolaldehyde, methyl formate and methyl cyanide all seem to trace the same material and peak at roughly the same position towards the dust emission peak. For G31.41+0.31, however, glycolaldehyde shows a different distribution to methyl formate and methyl cyanide and seems to trace the densest, most compact inner part of hot cores.

Dietary patterns and cardiovascular risk factors in adolescents and young adults: the Northern Ireland Young Hearts Project

Dietary pattern (DP) analysis allows examination of the combined effects of nutrients and foods on the markers of CVD. Very few studies have examined these relationships during adolescence or young adulthood. Traditional CVD risk biomarkers were analysed in 12-15-year-olds (n 487; Young Hearts (YH)1) and again in the same individuals at 20-25 years of age (n 487; YH3). Based on 7 d diet histories, in the present study, DP analysis was performed using a posteriori principal component analysis for the YH3 cohort and the a priori Mediterranean Diet Score (MDS) was calculated for both YH1 and YH3 cohorts. In the a posteriori DP analysis, YH3 participants adhering most closely to the 'healthy' DP were found to have lower pulse wave velocity (PWV) and homocysteine concentrations, the 'sweet tooth' DP were found to have increased LDL concentrations, systolic blood pressure, and diastolic blood pressure and decreased HDL concentrations, the 'drinker/social' DP were found to have lower LDL and homocysteine concentrations, but exhibited a trend towards a higher TAG concentration, and finally the 'Western' DP were found to have elevated homocysteine and HDL concentrations. In the a priori dietary score analysis, YH3 participants adhering most closely to the Mediterranean diet were found to exhibit a trend towards a lower PWV. MDS did not track between YH1 and YH3, and nor was there a longitudinal relationship between the change in the MDS and the change in CVD risk biomarkers. In conclusion, cross-sectional analysis revealed that some associations between DP and CVD risk biomarkers were already evident in the young adult population, namely the association between the healthy DP (and the MDS) and PWV; however, no longitudinal associations were observed between these relatively short time periods.