Implementing systematic review techniques in chemical risk assessment: challenges, opportunities and recommendations

Systematic review (SR) is a rigorous, protocol-driven approach designed to minimise error and bias when summarising the body of research evidence relevant to a specific scientific question. Taking as a comparator the use of SR in synthesising research in healthcare, we argue that SR methods could also pave the way for a “step change” in the transparency, objectivity and communication of chemical risk assessments (CRA) in Europe and elsewhere. We suggest that current controversies around the safety of certain chemicals are partly due to limitations in current CRA procedures which have contributed to ambiguity about the health risks posed by these substances. We present an overview of how SR methods can be applied to the assessment of risks from chemicals, and indicate how challenges in adapting SR methods from healthcare research to the CRA context might be overcome. Regarding the latter, we report the outcomes from a workshop exploring how to increase uptake of SR methods, attended by experts representing a wide range of fields related to chemical toxicology, risk analysis and SR. Priorities which were identified include: the conduct of CRA-focused prototype SRs; the development of a recognised standard of reporting and conduct for SRs in toxicology and CRA; and establishing a network to facilitate research, communication and training in SR methods. We see this paper as a milestone in the creation of a research climate that fosters communication between experts in CRA and SR and facilitates wider uptake of SR methods into CRA.

Mediated action and sexual risk: Searching for 'culture' in discourses of homosexuality and AIDS prevention in China

This paper examines the concept of ‘culture’ and its relationship to HIV prevention. Culture is here seen as the interaction between human beings and the various ‘cultural tools’ they appropriate when taking action. Among these tools are ways of speaking which encode certain meanings, ideologies and social practices. When individuals take action with regard to AIDS, what they do is mediated through voices which they borrow strategically from their environ- ment. The textual tools that are available and the ways individuals adapt and combine them work to either limit or amplify their participation in HIV prevention. What are traditionally seen as ‘cultures’ or ‘sub-cultures’, or worse, ‘risk groups’, are, in this perspective, viewed as ‘communities of practice’, groups of individuals who share particular cultural tools and ways of using them. This conceptual framework is applied to recent discourses of homosexuality and AIDS prevention in China. An instance of ‘of� cial’ discourse in the form of an AIDS education pamphlet for ‘gays’ is analysed for the voices it contains and how these voices are strategically marshalled by the authors and mixed with other voices in ways which amplify participation in AIDS prevention for some and limit it for others. This ‘offical’ discourse is then compared to the discourse of homosexually active Chinese men recently interviewed in Beijing and Fuzhou to examine which of these of� cial voices and other voices they appropriate, and how they adapt these voices in responding to HIV.

Suicide candy: tracing the discourse itineraries of food risk

Traditional approaches to the way people react to food risks often focus on ways in which the media distort information about risk, or on the deficiencies in people’s interpretation of this information. In this chapter Jones offers an alternative model which sees decisions regarding food risk as taking place at a complex nexus where different people, texts, objects and practices, each with their own histories, come together. Based on a case study of a food scandal involving a particular brand of Chinese candy, Jones argues that understanding why people respond the way they do to food risk requires tracing the itineraries along which different people, texts, objects and practices have traveled to converge at particular moments, and understanding the kinds of concrete social actions that these convergences make possible.

Subclinical thyroid dysfunctions are independent risk factors for mortality in a 7.5-year follow-up: the Japanese-Brazilian thyroid study

Objective: The currently available data concerning the influence of subclinical thyroid disease (STD) on morbidity and mortality are conflicting. Our objective was to investigate the relationships between STD and cardiometabolic profile and cardiovascular disease at baseline, as well as with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in a 7.5-year follow-up. Design: Prospective, observational study. Methods: An overall of 1110 Japanese-Brazilians aged above 30 years, free of thyroid disease, and not taking thyroid medication at baseline were studied. In a cross-sectional analysis, we investigated the prevalence of STD and its relationship with cardiometabolic profile and cardiovascular disease. All-cause and cardiovascular mortality rates were assessed for participants followed for up to 7.5 years. Association between STD and mortality was drawn using multivariate analysis, adjusting for potential confounders. Results: A total of 913 (82.3%) participants had euthyroidism, 99 (8.7%) had subclinical hypothyroidism, and 69 (6.2%) had subclinical hyperthyroidism. At baseline, no association was found between STD and cardiometabolic profile or cardiovascular disease. Multivariate-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs (95% confidence interval)) for all-cause mortality were significantly higher for individuals with both subclinical hyperthyroidism (HR, 3.0 (1.5-5.9); n=14) and subclinical hypothyroidism (HR, 2.3 (1.2-4.4); n=13) than for euthyroid subjects. Cardiovascular mortality was significantly associated with subclinical hyperthyroidism (HR, 3.3 (1.4-7.5); n=8), but not with subclinical hypothyroidism (HR, 1.6 (0.6-4.2); n=5). Conclusion: In the Japanese-Brazilian population, subclinical hyperthyroidism is an independent risk factor for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, while subclinical hypothyroidism is associated with all-cause mortality.

SESAME: Finding Ways Of Promoting SME Adaptation To Flood Risk

Small and medium-sized companies and other enterprises (SMEs) around the world are exposed to flood risk and many of the 4.5 million in the UK are at risk. As SMEs represent almost half of total business turnover in the UK, their protection is a vital part of the drive for greater climate change resilience. However, few have measures in place to ensure the continuity of their activities during a flood and its aftermath. The SESAME project aims to develop tools that encourage businesses to discover ways of becoming more resilient to floods and to appreciate how much better off they will be once they have adapted to the ongoing risk. By taking some of the mystery out of flooding and flood risk, it aims to make it susceptible to the same business acumen that enables the UK’s SMEs to deal with the many other challenges they face. In this paper we will report on the different aspects of the research in the project Understanding behaviour Changing behaviour Modelling impacts Economic impacts Through the above the project will advise government, local authorities and other public bodies on how to improve their responses to floods and will enable them to recommend ways to improve the guidelines provided to SMEs in flood risk areas.

Estimating Relative Risk Aversion, Risk-Neutral and Real-World Densities using Brazilian Real Currency Options

Building Risk-Neutral Densities (RND) from options data can provide market-implied expectations about the future behavior of a financial variable. And market expectations on financial variables may influence macroeconomic policy decisions. It can be useful also for corporate and financial institutions decision making. This paper uses the Liu et all (2007) approach to estimate the option-implied Risk-neutral densities from the Brazilian Real/US Dollar exchange rate distribution. We then compare the RND with actual exchange rates, on a monthly basis, in order to estimate the relative risk-aversion of investors and also obtain a Real-world density for the exchange rate. We are the first to calculate relative risk-aversion and the option-implied Real World Density for an emerging market currency. Our empirical application uses a sample of Brazilian Real/US Dollar options traded at BM&F-Bovespa from 1999 to 2011. The RND is estimated using a Mixture of Two Log-Normals distribution and then the real-world density is obtained by means of the Liu et al. (2007) parametric risktransformations. The relative risk aversion is calculated for the full sample. Our estimated value of the relative risk aversion parameter is around 2.7, which is in line with other articles that have estimated this parameter for the Brazilian Economy, such as Araújo (2005) and Issler and Piqueira (2000). Our out-of-sample evaluation results showed that the RND has some ability to forecast the Brazilian Real exchange rate. Abe et all (2007) found also mixed results in the out-of-sample analysis of the RND forecast ability for exchange rate options. However, when we incorporate the risk aversion into RND in order to obtain a Real-world density, the out-of-sample performance improves substantially, with satisfactory results in both Kolmogorov and Berkowitz tests. Therefore, we would suggest not using the “pure” RND, but rather taking into account risk aversion in order to forecast the Brazilian Real exchange rate.

Labor supply, risk aversion and economic refrom in China

Economic reform in China has created a small, but fast-growing private sector that has spurred rapid productivity growth. Growth of the private sector is predicated upon continued labor movements away from state-run industries and into private firms. This paper presents a theory of labor market sectoral choice demonstrating that three factors determine private sector labor supply-the difference in wages between the state and private sectors, private sector wage risk and risk aversion. Estimation of the model using survey data provides strong support for the theory. We find that the riskiness of private sector earnings has a greater effect in discouraging workers from taking jobs in private firms than the wage premi um has in attracting workers.

Risky business: social media metrics and political risk analysis

A quantificação do risco país – e do risco político em particular – levanta várias dificuldades às empresas, instituições, e investidores. Como os indicadores econômicos são atualizados com muito menos freqüência do que o Facebook, compreender, e mais precisamente, medir – o que está ocorrendo no terreno em tempo real pode constituir um desafio para os analistas de risco político. No entanto, com a crescente disponibilidade de “big data” de ferramentas sociais como o Twitter, agora é o momento oportuno para examinar os tipos de métricas das ferramentas sociais que estão disponíveis e as limitações da sua aplicação para a análise de risco país, especialmente durante episódios de violência política. Utilizando o método qualitativo de pesquisa bibliográfica, este estudo identifica a paisagem atual de dados disponíveis a partir do Twitter, analisa os métodos atuais e potenciais de análise, e discute a sua possível aplicação no campo da análise de risco político. Depois de uma revisão completa do campo até hoje, e tendo em conta os avanços tecnológicos esperados a curto e médio prazo, este estudo conclui que, apesar de obstáculos como o custo de armazenamento de informação, as limitações da análise em tempo real, e o potencial para a manipulação de dados, os benefícios potenciais da aplicação de métricas de ferramentas sociais para o campo da análise de risco político, particularmente para os modelos qualitativos-estruturados e quantitativos, claramente superam os desafios.

Business Plan, financial and risk analysis from the start-up mathrix

Mathrix is an e-learning math website that will be launched in March 2016. This master thesis offered a unique chance to interact with experienced supervisors in venture capitalism and project investment. It could serve as guidelines for entrepreneurs who intend to raise funds. Starting with the company’s business plan, the thesis focuses on estimating the company’s value with its return on investment using three scenarios and taking into consideration the risks evolved.

Spatial Distribution of Seropositive Dogs to Leptospira spp. and Evaluation of Leptospirosis Risk Factors Using a Decision Tree

Background: Leptospirosis is an important zoonotic disease associated with poor areas of urban settings of developing countries and early diagnosis and prompt treatment may prevent disease. Although rodents are reportedly considered the main reservoirs of leptospirosis, dogs may develop the disease, may become asymptomatic carriers and may be used as sentinels for disease epidemiology. The use of Geographical Information Systems (GIS) combined with spatial analysis techniques allows the mapping of the disease and the identification and assessment of health risk factors. Besides the use of GIS and spatial analysis, the technique of data mining, decision tree, can provide a great potential to find a pattern in the behavior of the variables that determine the occurrence of leptospirosis. The objective of the present study was to apply Geographical Information Systems and data prospection (decision tree) to evaluate the risk factors for canine leptospirosis in an area of Curitiba, PR.Materials, Methods & Results: The present study was performed on the Vila Pantanal, a urban poor community in the city of Curitiba. A total of 287 dog blood samples were randomly obtained house-by-house in a two-day sampling on January 2010. In addition, a questionnaire was applied to owners at the time of sampling. Geographical coordinates related to each household of tested dog were obtained using a Global Positioning System (GPS) for mapping the spatial distribution of reagent and non-reagent dogs to leptospirosis. For the decision tree, risk factors included results of microagglutination test (MAT) from the serum of dogs, previous disease on the household, contact with rats or other dogs, dog breed, outdoors access, feeding, trash around house or backyard, open sewer proximity and flooding. A total of 189 samples (about 2/3 of overall samples) were randomly selected for the training file and consequent decision rules. The remained 98 samples were used for the testing file. The seroprevalence showed a pattern of spatial distribution that involved all the Pantanal area, without agglomeration of reagent animals. In relation to data mining, from 189 samples used in decision tree, a total of 165 (87.3%) animal samples were correctly classified, generating a Kappa index of 0.413. A total of 154 out of 159 (96.8%) samples were considered non-reagent and were correctly classified and only 5/159 (3.2%) were wrongly identified. on the other hand, only 11 (36.7%) reagent samples were correctly classified, with 19 (63.3%) samples failing diagnosis.Discussion: The spatial distribution that involved all the Pantanal area showed that all the animals in the area are at risk of contamination by Leptospira spp. Although most samples had been classified correctly by the decision tree, a degree of difficulty of separability related to seropositive animals was observed, with only 36.7% of the samples classified correctly. This can occur due to the fact of seronegative animals number is superior to the number of seropositive ones, taking the differences in the pattern of variable behavior. The data mining helped to evaluate the most important risk factors for leptospirosis in an urban poor community of Curitiba. The variables selected by decision tree reflected the important factors about the existence of the disease (default of sewer, presence of rats and rubbish and dogs with free access to street). The analyses showed the multifactorial character of the epidemiology of canine leptospirosis.

Gait and risk of falls associated with frontal cognitive functions at different stages of Alzheimer's disease

The decline in frontal cognitive functions contributes to alterations of gait and increases the risk of falls in patients with dementia, a category which included Alzheimer's disease (AD). The objective of the present study was to compare the gait parameters and the risk of falls among patients at different stages of AD, and to relate these variables with cognitive functions. This is a cross-sectional study with 23 patients with mild and moderate AD. The Clinical Dementia Rating was used to classify the dementia severity. The kinematic parameters of gait (cadence, stride length, and stride speed) were analyzed under two conditions: (a) single task (free gait) and (b) dual task (walking and counting down). The risk of falls was evaluated using the Timed Up-and-Go test. The frontal cognitive functions were evaluated using the Frontal Assessment Battery (FAB), the Clock Drawing Test (CDT) and the Symbol Search Subtest. The patients who were at the moderate stage suffered reduced performance in their stride length and stride speed in the single task and had made more counting errors in the dual task and still had a higher fall risk. Both the mild and the moderate patients exhibited significant decreases in stride length, stride speed and cadence in the dual task. Was detected a significant correlation between CDT, FAB, and stride speed in the dual task condition. We also found a significant correlation between subtest Similarities, FAB and cadence in the dual task condition. The dual task produced changes in the kinematic parameters of gait for the mild and moderate AD patients and the gait alterations are related to frontal cognitive functions, particularly executive functions.

Environmental education and the health risk question: how do we educate the educators working with this theme?

Our society is presently seeing a trend of continuous increase of risk with severe consequences, especially those linked to environmental aspects. It has obligated us to reflect on this production and its effects, either positive or negative, and, after a long reflection, to think about the adopted model of civilization and the possibilities of changing such a model. The educational institution is among the social departments responsible for this revision process, since it represents one possibility to promote a more critical vision from society, providing it with tools needed for a more responsible action. However, schools are dominated by a traditional work, which does not allow for enough and proper attention to these relevant and current questions, and which involve a critical analysis of the conceptions and values established by our civilization, resulting in the present patterns of science-technology-society relations and their influence on the environment and health. Several research works have indicated a diversity of barriers that obstruct this necessary change. Since formal education plays an important role in the education of society for this theme, in this paper the possibilities and difficulty dealing with this problem are discussed, focusing on the question of teacher education, based on investigations related to teacher education programs for environmental education. The data collected show the urgency for introducing this theme in teacher training programs, taking into account the fact that educators have their own conceptions, values and attitudes that should be considered in these programs.

Risk-adjusted poverty in Argentina: measurement and determinants

Includes bibliography

Panoramic radiography in the diagnosis of carotid artery atheromas and the associated risk factors

Atherosclerosis is a serious chronic disease, responsible for thousands of deaths worldwide and is characterized by thickening and loss of elasticity of the arterial walls, associated with the presence of atheromatous plaques. Various risk factors act directly on predisposition to the disease, among which the following are pointed out: diabetes mellitus, arterial hypertension and inadequate diet and eating habits. More recent researches have elucidated new risk factors acting in the development of this disease, such as, for example: periodontitis, chronic renal disease and menopause. The panoramic radiograph, commonly used in dental practice, makes it possible to see calcified atherosclerotic plaques that are eventually deposited in the carotid arteries. The aim of this review article was to emphasize the dentist's important role in the detection of carotid artery atheromas in panoramic radiographs and the immediate referral of patients affected by these calcifications to doctors. In addition, the study intended to guide the dentist, especially the dental radiologist, with regard to differential diagnosis, which should be made taking into consideration particularly the triticeal cartilage when it is calcified. © Henriques et al.