Newborn behavior and risk of postnatal depression in the mother

The aim of this study was to assess which behavioral characteristics of the newborn infant are associated with an increased risk of postnatal depression (PND) in the mother. A total of 497 mothers from a prospective cohort study were recruited during the last trimester of pregnancy. Infants were evaluated at 3 days with the Brazelton Neonatal Behavioral Scale. Maternal PND was assessed at 6 weeks postpartum with the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale. Behavioral characteristics of the infant predicted the occurrence of PND, independent of other risk factors for PND: The lower the infants' orientation performance, the higher the risk that the mother would present with PND 6 weeks after delivery. As orientation capacities play a key role in the interactional skills developed between mothers and their infants, an infant who is difficult to engage in interaction may contribute to the risk of PND.

Processing of faces and emotional expressions in infants at risk of social phobia

Individuals with social phobia display social information processing biases yet their aetiological significance is unclear. Infants of mothers with social phobia and control infants' responses were assessed at 10 days, 10 and 16 weeks, and 10 months to faces versus non-faces, variations in intensity of emotional expressions, and gaze direction. Infant temperament and maternal behaviours were also assessed. Both groups showed a preference for faces over non-faces at 10 days and 10 weeks, and full faces over profiles at 16 weeks; they also looked more to high vs. low intensity angry faces at 10 weeks, and fearful faces at 10 months; however, index infants' initial orientation and overall looking to high-intensity fear faces was relatively less than controls at 10 weeks. This was not explained by infant temperament or maternal behaviours. The findings suggest that offspring of mothers with social phobia show processing biases to emotional expressions in infancy.

Communicating risk of medication side effects: an empirical evaluation of EU recommended terminology

Two experiments compared people's interpretation of verbal and numerical descriptions of the risk of medication side effects occurring. The verbal descriptors were selected from those recommended for use by the European Union (very common, common, uncommon, rare, very rare). Both experiments used a controlled empirical methodology, in which nearly 500 members of the general population were presented with a fictitious (but realistic) scenario about visiting the doctor and being prescribed medication, together with information about the medicine's side effects and their probability of occurrence. Experiment 1 found that, in all three age groups tested (18 - 40, 41 - 60 and over 60), participants given a verbal descriptor (very common) estimated side effect risk to be considerably higher than those given a comparable numerical description. Furthermore, the differences in interpretation were reflected in their judgements of side effect severity, risk to health, and intention to comply. Experiment 2 confirmed these findings using two different verbal descriptors (common and rare) and in scenarios which described either relatively severe or relatively mild side effects. Strikingly, only 7 out of 180 participants in this study gave a probability estimate which fell within the EU assigned numerical range. Thus, large scale use of the descriptors could have serious negative consequences for individual and public health. We therefore recommend that the EU and National authorities suspend their recommendations regarding these descriptors until a more substantial evidence base is available to support their appropriate use.

A climate change risk analysis for world ecosystems

We quantify the risks of climate-induced changes in key ecosystem processes during the 21st century by forcing a dynamic global vegetation model with multiple scenarios from 16 climate models and mapping the proportions of model runs showing forest/nonforest shifts or exceedance of natural variability in wildfire frequency and freshwater supply. Our analysis does not assign probabilities to scenarios or weights to models. Instead, we consider distribution of outcomes within three sets of model runs grouped by the amount of global warming they simulate: <2°C (including simulations in which atmospheric composition is held constant, i.e., in which the only climate change is due to greenhouse gases already emitted), 2–3°C, and >3°C. High risk of forest loss is shown for Eurasia, eastern China, Canada, Central America, and Amazonia, with forest extensions into the Arctic and semiarid savannas; more frequent wildfire in Amazonia, the far north, and many semiarid regions; more runoff north of 50°N and in tropical Africa and northwestern South America; and less runoff in West Africa, Central America, southern Europe, and the eastern U.S. Substantially larger areas are affected for global warming >3°C than for <2°C; some features appear only at higher warming levels. A land carbon sink of ≈1 Pg of C per yr is simulated for the late 20th century, but for >3°C this sink converts to a carbon source during the 21st century (implying a positive climate feedback) in 44% of cases. The risks continue increasing over the following 200 years, even with atmospheric composition held constant.

Leptin receptor polymorphisms interact with polyunsaturated fatty acids to augment risk of insulin resistance and metabolic syndrome in adults.

The leptin receptor (LEPR) is associated with insulin resistance, a key feature of metabolic syndrome (MetS). Gene-fatty acid interactions may affect MetS risk. The objective was to investigate the relationship among LEPR polymorphisms, insulin resistance, and MetS risk and whether plasma fatty acids, a biomarker of dietary fatty acids, modulate this. LEPR polymorphisms (rs10493380, rs1137100, rs1137101, rs12067936, rs1805096, rs2025805, rs3790419, rs3790433, rs6673324, and rs8179183), biochemical measurements, and plasma fatty acid profiles were determined in the LIPGENE-SU.VI.MAX study of MetS cases and matched controls (n = 1754). LEPR rs3790433 GG homozygotes had increased MetS risk compared with the minor A allele carriers [odds ratio (OR) = 1.65; 95% CI: 1.05–2.57; P = 0.028], which may be accounted for by their increased risk of elevated insulin concentrations (OR 2.40; 95% CI: 1.28–4.50; P = 0.006) and insulin resistance (OR = 2.15; 95% CI: 1.18–3.90; P = 0.012). Low (less than median) plasma (n-3) and high (n-6) PUFA status exacerbated the genetic risk conferred by GG homozygosity to hyperinsulinemia (OR 2.92–2.94) and insulin resistance (OR 3.40–3.47). Interestingly, these associations were abolished against a high (n-3) or low (n-6) PUFA background. Importantly, we replicated some of these findings in an independent cohort. Homozygosity for the LEPR rs3790433 G allele was associated with insulin resistance, which may predispose to increased MetS risk. Novel gene-nutrient interactions between LEPR rs3790433 and PUFA suggest that these genetic influences were more evident in individuals with low plasma (n-3) or high plasma (n-6) PUFA.

Single nucleotide polymorphisms at the ADIPOQ gene locus interact with age and dietary intake of fat to determine serum adiponectin in subjects at risk of the metabolic syndrome

Background: Adiponectin gene expression is modulated by peroxisome proliferator–activated receptor γ, which is a transcription factor activated by unsaturated fatty acids. Objective: We investigated the effect of the interaction between variants at the ADIPOQ gene locus, age, sex, body mass index (BMI), ethnicity, and the replacement of dietary saturated fatty acids (SFAs) with monounsaturated fatty acids (MUFAs) or carbohydrates on serum adiponectin concentrations. Design: The RISCK (Reading, Imperial, Surrey, Cambridge, and Kings) study is a parallel-design, randomized controlled trial. Serum adiponectin concentrations were measured after a 4-wk high-SFA (HS) diet and a 24-wk intervention with reference (HS), high-MUFA (HM), and low-fat (LF) diets. Single nucleotide polymorphisms at the ADIPOQ locus −11391 G/A (rs17300539), −10066 G/A (rs182052), −7734 A/C (rs16861209), and +276 G/T (rs1501299) were genotyped in 448 participants. Results: In white Europeans, +276 T was associated with higher serum adiponectin concentrations (n = 340; P = 0.006) and −10066 A was associated with lower serum adiponectin concentrations (n = 360; P = 0.03), after adjustment for age, BMI, and sex. After the HM diet, −10066 G/G subjects showed a 3.8% increase (95% CI: −0.1%, 7.7%) and G/A+A/A subjects a 2.6% decrease (95% CI: −5.6%, 0.4%) in serum adiponectin (P = 0.006 for difference after adjustment for the change in BMI, age, and sex). In −10066 G/G homozygotes, serum adiponectin increased with age after the HM diet and decreased after the LF diet. Conclusion: In white −10066 G/G homozygotes, an HM diet may help to increase adiponectin concentrations with advancing age. This trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as ISRCTN29111298.

The dose rate debate: does the risk of fungicide resistance increase or decrease with dose?

This paper reviews the evidence relating to the question: does the risk of fungicide resistance increase or decrease with dose? The development of fungicide resistance progresses through three key phases. During the ‘emergence phase’ the resistant strain has to arise through mutation and invasion. During the subsequent ‘selection phase’, the resistant strain is present in the pathogen population and the fraction of the pathogen population carrying the resistance increases due to the selection pressure caused by the fungicide. During the final phase of ‘adjustment’, the dose or choice of fungicide may need to be changed to maintain effective control over a pathogen population where resistance has developed to intermediate levels. Emergence phase: no experimental publications and only one model study report on the emergence phase, and we conclude that work in this area is needed. Selection phase: all the published experimental work, and virtually all model studies, relate to the selection phase. Seven peer reviewed and four non-peer reviewed publications report experimental evidence. All show increased selection for fungicide resistance with increased fungicide dose, except for one peer reviewed publication that does not detect any selection irrespective of dose and one conference proceedings publication which claims evidence for increased selection at a lower dose. In the mathematical models published, no evidence has been found that a lower dose could lead to a higher risk of fungicide resistance selection. We discuss areas of the dose rate debate that need further study. These include further work on pathogen-fungicide combinations where the pathogen develops partial resistance to the fungicide and work on the emergence phase.

Protecting degraded rainforests: enhancement of forest carbon stocks under REDD+

The likely Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD+) mechanism includes strategies for the enhancement of forest carbon stocks. Recent concerns have been expressed that such enhancement, or restoration, of forest carbon could be counterproductive to biodiversity conservation, because forests are managed as “carbon farms” with the application of intensive silvicultural management that could homogenize diverse degraded rainforests. Restoration increases regeneration rates in degraded forest compared to naturally regenerating forest, and thus could yield significant financial returns for carbon sequestered. Here, we argue that such forest restoration projects are, in fact, likely to provide a number of benefits to biodiversity conservation including the retention of biodiversity, the prevention of forest conversion to agriculture, and employment opportunities for poor local communities. As with other forms of forest-based carbon offsets, there are possible moral hazard and leakage problems with restoration. However, due to the multiple benefits, we urge that enhancement of forest carbon stocks be detailed as a major component in the future negotiations of REDD+.

Impact of the quantity and flavonoid content of fruits and vegetables on markers of intake in adults with an increased risk of cardiovascular disease: the FLAVURS Trial

Purpose Limited robust randomised controlled trials investigating fruit and vegetable (F&V) intake in people at risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) exist. We aimed to design and validate a dietary strategy of increasing flavonoid-rich versus flavonoid-poor F&V consumption on nutrient biomarker profile. Methods A parallel, randomised, controlled, dose–response dietary intervention study. Participants with a CVD relative risk of 1.5 assessed by risk scores were randomly assigned to one of the 3 groups: habitual (control, CT), high-flavonoid (HF) or low-flavonoid (LF) diets. While the CT group (n = 57) consumed their habitual diet throughout, the HF (n = 58) and LF (n = 59) groups sequentially increased their daily F&V intake by an additional 2, 4 and 6 portions for 6-week periods during the 18-week study. Results Compliance to target numbers and types of F&V was broadly met and verified by dietary records, and plasma and urinary biomarkers. Mean (±SEM) number of F&V portions/day consumed by the HF and LF groups at baseline (3.8 ± 0.3 and 3.4 ± 0.3), 6 weeks (6.3 ± 0.4 and 5.8 ± 0.3), 12 weeks (7.0 ± 0.3 and 6.8 ± 0.3) and 18 weeks (7.6 ± 0.4 and 8.1 ± 0.4), respectively, was similar at baseline yet higher than the CT group (3.9 ± 0.3, 4.3 ± 0.3, 4.6 ± 0.4, 4.5 ± 0.3) (P = 0.015). There was a dose-dependent increase in dietary and urinary flavonoids in the HF group, with no change in other groups (P = 0.0001). Significantly higher dietary intakes of folate (P = 0.035), non-starch polysaccharides (P = 0.001), vitamin C (P = 0.0001) and carotenoids (P = 0.0001) were observed in both intervention groups compared with CT, which were broadly supported by nutrient biomarker analysis. Conclusions The success of improving nutrient profile by active encouragement of F&V intake in an intervention study implies the need for a more hands-on public health approach.

‘Nudging’ energy users: regulatory measures to address the risk of aggregate peak demand in European electricity markets

For decades regulators in the energy sector have focused on facilitating the maximisation of energy supply in order to meet demand through liberalisation and removal of market barriers. The debate on climate change has emphasised a new type of risk in the balance between energy demand and supply: excessively high energy demand brings about significantly negative environmental and economic impacts. This is because if a vast number of users is consuming electricity at the same time, energy suppliers have to activate dirty old power plants with higher greenhouse gas emissions and higher system costs. The creation of a Europe-wide electricity market requires a systematic investigation into the risk of aggregate peak demand. This paper draws on the e-Living Time-Use Survey database to assess the risk of aggregate peak residential electricity demand for European energy markets. Findings highlight in which countries and for what activities the risk of aggregate peak demand is greater. The discussion highlights which approaches energy regulators have started considering to convince users about the risks of consuming too much energy during peak times. These include ‘nudging’ approaches such as the roll-out of smart meters, incentives for shifting the timing of energy consumption, differentiated time-of-use tariffs, regulatory financial incentives and consumption data sharing at the community level.