973 resultados para Risk - Mathematical models


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Fabric energy storage (FES) systems have gained in popularity in the recent years in response to the demand for energy efficient buildings. The dynamic heat transfer mechanisms of an FES require specialised techniques to predict its thermal performance. This requirement has been one of the barriers to the wider use of FES systems. Based on the research literature, this paper presents a critical review of the published mathematical models of FES systems. The paper discusses the usefulness of these models based on the following criteria: the inputs required; the accuracy of predictions; the ability to link with commercially available simulation software: and the degree of difficulty in using the models. The review found that the currently available mathematical models are either not able to predict the thermal behaviour of a building space with an FES system reliably or the models are too complicated and/or require too much specialised knowledge to make them useful.

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A new design method for a distributed power system stabiliser for interconnected power systems is introduced in this paper. The stabiliser is of a low order, dynamic and robust. To generate the required local control signals, each local stabiliser requires information about either the rotor speed or the load angle of the other subsystems. A simple MATLAB based design algorithm is given and used on a three-machine unstable power system. The resulting stabiliser is simulated and sample results are presented.

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A neurone model (the FORMON) is proposed which provides a mathematical explanation for a range of psychological phenomena and has potential in Artificial Intelligence applications. A general definition of organisation in terms of entropy and information is formulated. The concept of microcodes is introduced to describe the physical nature of organisation. Spatio-temporal pattern acquisition and processing functions attributable to individual neurones are reviewed. The criterion for self-organisation in a neurone is determined as the maximisation of mutual organisation. A feedback control system is proposed to satisfy this criterion and provide an integrated long-term memory of spatio-temporal pattern. This pattern acquisition system is shown to be applicable to dendritic pattern recognition and axonal pattern generation. Provision is also made for adaptation, short-term memory and operant learning. An electro-chemical model of transmission and processing of neural signals is outlined to provide the pattern acquisition functions of the Formon model. A transverse magnetic mode of electrotonic propagation is postulated in addition to the transverse electromagnetic mode. Configurations of the Formon are categorised in terms of possible pattern processing functions. Connective architectures are proposed as self-organising models of acquisitive semantic and syntactic networks.

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An extensive study was made of the physical properties of a range of cementitiously stabilised materials to determine their suitability for use in in situ pavement construction. This process for recycling existing pavements has considerable environmental and cost benefits. Pavement models incorporating these materials were analysed to determine their structural behaviour.

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This thesis investigated how the variation in inputs, such as material and processing conditions affected the shape defect phenomenon (springback) for sheet metal forming processes. Using a stochastic Finite Element modelling tool, it was found that the material type and fluctuations in material properties significantly influenced the variation in springback.

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Modern societies rely on natural water pathways that include subsurface flow of water and dissolved chemicals. The thesis presents a range of numerical and analytical models for simulating physical, chemical and biological processes in the subsurface, including coastal aquifers, the near-surface vadose zone, and solute transport in biogeochemically active aquifers.

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This study assessed the viability of utilising groundwater systems to manage Portland Aluminium's trade waste water stream. A mathematical groundwater model was created to assess laboratory and field results. Fluoride was modelled for spatio-temporal longevity in the system. All models indicate that fluoride will ultimately exit the site to the seaward boundary.

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The mechanisms of heat and mass transfers between heat-treatment fluidised beds and immersed workpiece were studied by using computational simulation and experimental validation. A model called Double Particle-layer and Porous Medium was developed to simulate the gas flow and heat transfer between fluidised beds and immersed workpiece.

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This thesis made outstanding contribution in automating the discovery of linear causal models. It introduced a highly efficient discovery algorithm, which implements new encoding, ensemble and accelerating strategies. Theoretic research and experimental work showed that this new discovery algorithm outperforms the previous system in both accuracy and efficiency.