948 resultados para Rest.
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11TH INTERNATIONAL COLLOQUIUM ON ANCIENT MOSAICS OCTOBER 16TH 20TH, 2009, BURSA TURKEY Mosaics of Turkey and Parallel Developments in the Rest of the Ancient and Medieval World: Questions of Iconography, Style and Technique from the Beginnings of Mosaic until the Late Byzantine Era
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INTRODUCTION: The situation of tuberculosis (TB) is being modified by the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), which is increasing the occurrence of new cases and the generation of drug resistant strains, affecting not only the people infected with HIV, but also their close contacts and the general population, conforming a serious public health concern. However, the magnitudes of the factors associated to this co-infection differ considerably in relation to the population groups and geographical areas. METHODS: In order to evaluate the prevalence and risk factors for the co-infection of tuberculosis (TB) in a population with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV+) in the Southeast of Mexico, we made the analysis of clinical and epidemiological variables and the diagnosis of tuberculosis by isolation of mycobacteria from respiratory samples. RESULTS: From the 147 HIV+ individuals analyzed, 12 were culture positive; this shows a prevalence of 8% for the co-infection. The only variable found with statistical significance for the co-infection was the number of CD4-T < 200 cells/mm³, OR 13 (95%, CI 2-106 vs 12-109). CONCLUSIONS: To our knowledge this is the first report describing the factors associated with tuberculosis co -infection with HIV in a population from Southern Mexico. The low number of CD4 T-cells was the only variable associated with the TB co-infection and the rest of the variables provide scenarios that require specific and particular interventions for this population group.
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We investigate the role of permanent and transitory shocks for firms and aggregate dynamics. We find that permanent shocks to productivity and permanent shifts in the composition of output explain at least four-fifths of firms’ dynamics. However, these permanent shocks are almost uncorrelated across firms and are therefore less relevant for aggregate dynamics. Transitory shocks, on the other hand, are not very important at the firm level,but they account for most of the volatility of aggregate hours and output, because they are significantly correlated across firms. Finally, we try to make some progress on the interpretation of the shocks.
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We use a novel pricing model to imply time series of diffusive volatility and jump intensity from S&P 500 index options. These two measures capture the ex ante risk assessed by investors. Using a simple general equilibrium model, we translate the implied measures of ex ante risk into an ex ante risk premium. The average premium that compensates the investor for the ex ante risks is 70% higher than the premium for realized volatility. The equity premium implied from option prices is shown to significantly predict subsequent stock market returns.
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Proceedings of the 16th Annual Conference organized by the Insurance Law Association of Serbia and German Foundation for International Legal Co-Operation (IRZ), entitled "Insurance law, governance and transparency: basics of the legal certainty" Palic Serbia, 17-19 April 2015.
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Taking a Media Anthropology’s approach to dynamics of mediated selfrepresentation in migratory contexts, this thesis starts by mapping radio initiatives produced by, for and/or with migrants in Portugal. To further explore dynamics of support of initial settlement in the country, community-making, cultural reproduction, and transnational connectivity - found both in the mapping stage and the minority media literature (e.g. Kosnick, 2007; Rigoni & Saitta, 2012; Silverstone & Georgiou, 2005) - a case study was selected: the station awarded with the first bilingual license in Portugal. The station in question caters largely to the British population presenting themselves as “expats” and residing in the Algarve. The ethnographic strategy to research it consisted of “following the radio” (Marcus, 1995) beyond the station and into the events and establishments it announces on air, so as to relate production and consumption realms. The leading research question asks how does locally produced radio play into “expats” processes of management of cultural identity – and what are the specificities of its role? Drawing on conceptualizations of lifestyle migration (Benson & O’Reilly, 2009), production of locality (Appadurai 1996) and the public sphere (Butsch, 2007; Calhoun & et al, 1992; Dahlgren, 2006), this thesis contributes to valuing radio as a productive gateway to research migrants’ construction of belonging, to inscribe a counterpoint in the field of minority media, and to debate conceptualizations of migratory categories and flows. Specifically, this thesis argues that the station fulfills similar roles to other minority radio initiatives but in ways that are specific to the population being catered to. Namely, unlike other minority stations, radio facilitates the process of transitioning between categories along on a continuum linking tourists and migrants. It also reflects and participates in strategies of reterritorialization that rest on functional and partial modes of incorporation. While contributing to sustain a translocality (Appadurai, 1996) it indexes and fosters a stance of connection that is symbolically and materially connected to the UK and other “neighborhoods” but is, simultaneously, oriented to engaging with the Algarve as “home”. Yet, besides reifying a British cultural identity, radio’s oral, repetitive and ephemeral discourse particularly trivializes the reproduction of an ambivalent stance of connection with place that is shared by other “expats”. This dynamic is related to migratory projects driven by social imaginaries fostered by international media that stimulate the search for idealized ways of living, which the radio associates with the Algarve. While recurrently localizing and validating the narrative projecting an idealized “good life”, radio amplifies dynamics among migrants that seem to reaffirm the migratory move as a good choice.
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ABSTRACTINTRODUCTION:While no single factor is sufficient to guarantee the success of influenza vaccine programs, knowledge of the levels of immunity in local populations is critical. Here, we analyzed influenza immunity in a population from Southern Brazil, a region with weather conditions that are distinct from those in the rest of country, where influenza infections are endemic, and where greater than 50% of the population is vaccinated annually.METHODS:Peripheral blood mononuclear cells were isolated from 40 individuals. Of these, 20 had received the H1N1 vaccine, while the remaining 20 were unvaccinated against the disease. Cells were stimulated in vitro with the trivalent post-pandemic influenza vaccine or with conserved major histocompatibility complex I (MHC I) peptides derived from hemagglutinin and neuraminidase. Cell viability was then analyzed by [3-(4,5-dimethylthiazol-2-yl)-2,5- diphenyltetrazolium bromide)]-based colorimetric assay (MTT), and culture supernatants were assayed for helper T type 1 (Th1) and Th2-specific cytokine levels.RESULTS:Peripheral blood lymphocytes from vaccinated, but not unvaccinated, individuals exhibited significant proliferation in vitro in the presence of a cognate influenza antigen. After culturing with vaccine antigens, cells from vaccinated individuals produced similar levels of interleukin (IL)-10 and interferon (IFN)-γ, while those from unvaccinated individuals produced higher levels of IFN-γ than of IL-10.CONCLUSIONS:Our data indicate that peripheral blood lymphocytes from vaccinated individuals are stimulated upon encountering a cognate antigen, but did not support the hypothesis that cross-reactive responses related to previous infections can ameliorate the immune response. Moreover, monitoring IL-10 production in vaccinated individuals could comprise a valuable tool for predicting disease evolution.
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Inflammatory Bowel Diseases - ulcerative colitis and Crohn's disease- are chronic gastrointestinal inflammatory diseases of unknown etiology. Decreased oral intake, malabsorption, accelerated nutrient losses, increased requirements, and drug-nutrient interactions cause nutritional and functional deficiencies that require proper correction by nutritional therapy. The goals of the different forms of nutritional therapy are to correct nutritional disturbances and to modulate inflammatory response, thus influencing disease activity. Total parenteral nutrition has been used to correct and to prevent nutritional disturbances and to promote bowel rest during active disease, mainly in cases of digestive fistulae with high output. Its use should be reserved for patients who cannot tolerate enteral nutrition. Enteral nutrition is effective in inducing clinical remission in adults and promoting growth in children. Due to its low complication rate and lower costs, enteral nutrition should be preferred over total parenteral nutrition whenever possible. Both present equal effectiveness in primary therapy for remission of active Crohn's disease. Nutritional intervention may improve outcome in certain individuals; however, because of the costs and complications of such therapy, careful selection is warranted, especially in patients presumed to need total parenteral nutrition. Recent research has focused on the use of nutrients as primary treatment agents. Immunonutrition is an important therapeutic alternative in the management of inflammatory bowel diseases, modulating the inflammation and changing the eicosanoid synthesis profile. However, beneficial reported effects have yet to be translated into the clinical practice. The real efficacy of these and other nutrients (glutamine, short-chain fatty acids, antioxidants) still need further evaluation through prospective and randomized trials.
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RESUMO - A dor, incómodo ou desconforto ao nível músculo-esquelético, sobretudo devido a situações e/ou postos de trabalho com elevadas exigências ao nível postural, de aplicação de força, de repetitividade ou por incorrecta distribuição das pausas, é aceite como um indicador de situações de risco passíveis de se encontrarem na génese de lesões músculo- -esqueléticas ligadas ao trabalho (LMELT) (Stuart-Buttle, 1994). No sentido de avaliar a prevalência de sintomas de LME, efectuou-se um estudo numa grande empresa da indústria de componentes para automóveis na região de Lisboa durante o ano de 2001. Utilizou-se um instrumento de recolha de informação construído a partir de uma adaptação do questionário nórdico músculo-esquelético (QNM) (Kuorinka et al., 1987). Com o apoio do serviço de saúde ocupacional da referida empresa, o questionário foi entregue a todos os trabalhadores, obtendo-se uma taxa de respondentes de 63,2% (n = 574). A população em estudo é maioritariamente do sexo feminino (83,9%), tem idades compreendidas entre os 18 e os 65 anos e a classe modal situa-se entre os 26 e os 33 anos (23,3%). Os resultados evidenciam uma alta prevalência de sintomatologia de LME e diferenças significativas de sintomas entre as categorias profissionais (1) operadores de máquina de costura, (2) trabalhadores dos armazéns e de transporte de mercadorias e (3) trabalhadores da logística, qualidade e escritórios. Os operadores apresentam índices superiores e diferentes (p < 0,05) de sintomatologia nos últimos doze meses ao nível da região cervical, ombros, cotovelos, ancas/coxas, pernas/joelhos e tornozelos/pés e nos punhos nos últimos sete dias. No presente estudo, a análise dos dados obtidos parece indicar que a natureza e as características da actividade de trabalho do grupo profissional operadores de máquina de costura (flexão cervical > 20°, trabalho muscular predominantemente estático ao nível da articulação dos ombros, elevação dos membros superiores > 45°, ortostatismo e exigências elevadas ao nível dos punhos/mãos) estão implicadas no desencadear da sintomatologia auto- -referida.
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Euthanasia, especially the active one, has always been an extremely discussed subject, which goes further pure dogmatics and transcends the strictly legal field. A reflection about such issue makes us re-think on what it implies for all the involved without ever loosing sight of the fact that admitting a legalization is, in a legal system as ours, to admit the lack of punishment of an homicide act or an assistance to suicide. However, burying in mind the foreign experiences, isn’t there a possibility of working on a path that respects both the basis of our legal system and the rest of the interests involved? And what interests would those be? How to admit such a path? Based on what assumptions? The present study proposes a discovery of paths and not the search for dead ends, creating definitive answers. The purpose of this dissertation is to explore the existing structure of the Portuguese legal system on these matters, in a path that is until now mostly in favour of punishment, based on homicide or assisted suicide crimes. Along with the Portuguese dynamic, we want to analyse legal systems that opted by decriminalization and, based on those experiences, shared with our legal culture, scan the viability of a decriminalization procedure. What paths would be viable for such a decriminalization in Portuguese criminal territory? The scope is only to open the eyes of who always wanted to keep them shut, or to who just never tried to open them, because at the end of the day it will always be a discussion that we want to keep light up, since that what we are here discussing is life. We want discussion, not imposition.
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RESUMO - Portugal continental, como outros países europeus, foi afectado por uma onda de calor de grande intensidade no Verão de 2003, com efeitos na mortalidade da população. O excesso de óbitos associados à onda de calor foi estimado pela comparação do número de óbitos observados entre 30 de Julho e 15 de Agosto de 2003 e o número de óbitos esperados se a população tivesse estado exposta às taxas de mortalidade médias do biénio 2000-2001 no respectivo período homólogo. Os óbitos esperados foram calculados com ajustamento para a idade. O número de óbitos observados (O) foi superior ao número esperado (E) em todos os dias do período estudado e o seu excesso global foi estimado em 1953 óbitos (excesso relativo de 43%), dos quais 1317 (61%) ocorreram no sexo feminino e 1742 no grupo de 75 e + anos (89%). A nível distrital, Portalegre teve o maior aumento relativo do número de óbitos (+89%) e Aveiro o menor (+18%). Numa área geográfica contínua do interior do território (Guarda, Castelo Branco, Portalegre e Évora) houve aumentos relativos superiores a 80%. Em termos absolutos, o maior excesso de óbitos ocorreu no distrito de Lisboa (mais cerca de 396) e no do Porto (mais cerca de 183). As causas de morte «golpe de calor» e «desidratação e outros distúrbios metabólicos» tiveram os aumentos relativos mais elevados (razões O/E de, respectivamente, 70 e 8,65). Os maiores aumentos absolutos do número de óbitos ocorreram no grupo das «doenças do aparelho circulatório» (mais 758), nas «doenças do aparelho respiratório» (mais 255) e no conjunto de «todas as neoplasias malignas» (mais 131). No período da onda de calor e no período de comparação, a percentagem dos óbitos que ocorreu nos hospitais (52% e 56%), no domicílio (32 e 33%) e em «outros locais» foi semelhante. A discussão sobre os factores que condicionaram a obtenção dos valores apresentados, relativos ao excesso de óbitos por sexo, grupo etário, distrito, causa e local da morte, permite concluir que os mesmos se afiguram adequados para medir a ordem de grandeza e caracterizar o efeito da onda de calor na mortalidade. O erro aleatório, medido pelos intervalos de confiança, e alguns possíveis erros sistemáticos associados ao período de comparação escolhido não deverão afectar de modo relevante as estimativas.
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RESUMO: A reabilitação respiratória (RR) é uma intervenção abrangente e interdisciplinar dirigida aos doentes respiratórios crónicos e inclui o treino de exercício, programas de educação e de modificação comportamental, entre outros, desenhados individualmente para melhorar o desempenho físico e psicossocial e promover a adesão a longo prazo a comportamentos promotores de saúde. A doença pulmonar obstrutiva crónica (DPOC) é uma doença comum, afetando cerca de 210 milhões de pessoas em todo o mundo, com elevada mortalidade e com custos económicos significativos decorrentes do agravamento progressivo da doença, das hospitalizações e de reinternamentos frequentes. Apesar do crescente conhecimento da DPOC e do papel da RR nos benefícios para a saúde, existem aspetos ainda não esclarecidos que têm impacto na prática clínica e de investigação e nas decisões das autoridades de saúde. A primeira parte desta tese focou a DPOC e o seu impacto negativo e incluiu: o estudo da prevalência da DPOC em Portugal; os fatores clínicos e funcionais que se associam à mortalidade em doentes com DPOC avançada; a morbilidade, impacto funcional e risco dos doentes se tornarem dependentes para as atividades diárias e a influência da inflamação sistémica. A prevalência estimada da DPOC de 14,2% indica que esta é uma doença comum em Portugal e alerta para a necessidade de uma maior sensibilização da população, dos profissionais de saúde e autoridades de saúde com vista a um diagnóstico precoce e à alocação dos recursos terapêuticos adequados. A elevada taxa de mortalidade em doentes com DPOC avançada - 36,6% em 3 anos - associou-se a insuficiência respiratória, a elevado número de exacerbações, ao cancro do pulmão e a reduzida capacidade funcional para a marcha, salientando a importância da referenciação precoce para RR, a identificação e o tratamento das comorbilidades e a prevenção das exacerbações. A aplicação de um questionário que avaliou as atividades da vida diária básicas e instrumentais, permitiu identificar um marcador clínico do risco de dependência, complementando as avaliações funcionais e associando-se a outros marcadores de mau prognóstico, como as exacerbações. Em doentes com DPOC, com FEV1 médio de 46,76% (desvio padrão: 20,90%), 67% da categoria D do GOLD, verificou-se uma associação positiva entre a expressão de genes inflamatórios avaliada pela reação em cadeia da polimerase (ARN mensageiro de IFNg, IL1b, IL6, IL8, TNFa, TGFb1, iNOS) e o índice de massa corporal em repouso, acentuando-se após o exercício. Este estudo aponta a inflamação como o potencial elo de ligação entre a obesidade e a inflamação sistémica em doentes com DPOC. A segunda parte da tese focou a RR, nomeadamente os seus efeitos em doentes das categorias GOLD A, B, C e D; o impacto das comorbilidades nos resultados da RR e os resultados de diferentes intensidades de treino aeróbio. Após o programa de RR, verificaram-se melhorias significativas na capacidade de exercício funcional e de endurance e no estado geral de saúde dos doentes de todas as categorias GOLD. Esta classificação não distingue os doentes que melhor poderão beneficiar desta intervenção, indicando que devem ser referenciados para RR, os doentes sintomáticos ou com repercussão na qualidade de vida, independentemente da categoria da DPOC a que pertençam. A prevalência das comorbilidades no grupo de doentes com DPOC que é referenciado para RR, é elevada, sendo as mais frequentes, as cardiovasculares, as respiratórias e as psicológicas. Apesar de poderem diminuir o impacto da RR, os resultados desta foram semelhantes independentemente do número de comorbilidades. A identificação e o tratamento sistemáticos das comorbilidades conferem maior segurança clínica a esta intervenção terapêutica a qual, por apresentar bons resultados, não deve limitar a referenciação dos doentes. Com o programa de RR, verificou-se melhoria significativa em todos os resultados centrados no doente para ambas as intensidades de treino aeróbio, a 60% e a 80% da potência aeróbica máxima (Wmax), com melhoria do estado geral de saúde, nos sintomas e na capacidade para o exercício, o que questiona a indicação sistemática de elevadas intensidades de treino em doentes com DPOC para a obtenção de benefícios a curto prazo. Na terceira e última parte da tese foi estudado o papel da atividade física na DPOC, focando os fatores que influenciam a atividade física diária; a evolução da capacidade funcional e o estado de saúde 2 anos após um programa de RR e o papel da telemonitorização na quantificação e monitorização da atividade física. Confirmámos que os doentes com DPOC são marcadamente sedentários e os fatores que se associaram ao sedentarismo nestes doentes foram a dispneia e a distância percorrida na prova de marcha de seis minutos. Este estudo sublinha a importância do controlo sintomático, nomeadamente da dispneia, bem como, mais uma vez, o potencial papel da reabilitação respiratória no aumento da capacidade funcional para o exercício e na aquisição de hábitos de vida fisicamente ativa. Verificámos que, apesar de os doentes com DPOC apresentarem benefícios clinicamente significativos na capacidade funcional para o exercício e no estado geral de saúde com o programa de RR, apenas os que se mantêm ativos, podem, no final dos dois anos de seguimento, manter os efeitos benéficos desse programa. O sistema de telemonitorização que combina a oximetria e a quantificação da atividade física provou ser clinicamente útil na avaliação da necessidade de oxigenoterapia de longa duração (OLD) e na aferição do débito de oxigénio em repouso, no esforço e no sono, podendo contribuir para uma melhor adequação da prescrição da OLD. A monitorização dos níveis de atividade física regular é um importante instrumento de avaliação dos programas de RR e o seu uso potencial na telereabilitação permitirá prolongar a eficácia dos programas e reduzir os custos associados aos cuidados de saúde.---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ABSTRACT: Pulmonary rehabilitation (PR) is a comprehensive interdisciplinary intervention that includes, but is not limited to, exercise training, education, and behavior change, individually designed to improve physical and psychological conditions of people with chronic respiratory disease and to promote long-term adherence to health-enhancing behaviors. Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a common disease, affecting about 210 million people worldwide, with high mortality and significant health-related costs due to disease progression, hospitalizations and frequent hospital readmissions. Although the increasing knowledge about COPD and benefitial outcomes of PR, some aspects with impact in clinical practice, research and health authorities’ decisions, remain to be clarified. The first part of this thesis focused on COPD and its negative impact, including the study of COPD prevalence in Portugal; clinical and functional factors associated with mortality in advanced COPD patients; morbidity, functional impact and risk of others’ dependance to perform activities of daily living; and the role of systemic inflammation. The evidence of 14.2% estimated COPD prevalence as a common disease in Portugal raises the need of an increasing awareness of population, health care professionals and health authorities towards an earlier diagnosis and apropriate treatment resources allocation. High mortality in patients with advanced COPD – 36.6% in 3 years - was associated with respiratory failure, high frequency of exacerbations, lung cancer and a low functional capacity in walking. This highlightens the importance of an earlier referral to PR, comorbidity identification and treatment, and prevention of exacerbations. A questionnaire evaluated basic and instrumental activities of daily living, and identified a clinical marker of the risk of becoming dependent. This clinical marker complemented other functional evaluations and was associated with prognosis markers such as the number of exacerbations. In COPD patients with a mean FEV1 46.76% (SD 20.90%), 67% belonging to GOLD grade D, we found a positive association between inflammatory gene expression evaluated by polymerase chain reaction (IFNg, IL1b, IL6, IL8, TNFa, TGFb1, iNOS RNA messenger) and body mass index at rest, and a further increase with exercise. This study evidenced obesity as one potential link between COPD and systemic inflammation. The second part of this thesis focused PR, namely its outcomes in patients of GOLD categories A, B, C and D; comorbidities impact in PR outcomes, and the impact of different exercise training intensities in patient related outcomes. xviii With PR intervention, we found significant improvement in functional exercise capacity, endurance exercise capacity and health status in patients of all GOLD categories. This classification did not differentiate which patients would benefit more from PR, hence all symptomatic patients with a negative impact in health status should be referred to PR, regardless of the GOLD category they belong to. There is a high prevalence of comorbidities in COPD patients referred to PR, being cardiovascular, respiratory and psychological, the most prevalent. Although some comorbidities might reduce PR impact, the results were similar regardless of the number of comorbidities. Systematic comorbidities identification and treatment provides safety to PR intervention, and its good results should not preclude patients referral. With PR intervention we found a significant improvement in all patient reported outcomes for exercise training intensities at 60% and 80% maximum work rate (Wmax), namely in health status, symptoms and exercise capacity. These findings challenge the current systematic indication of high exercise training intensities to achieve PR short-term benefits. In the third and last part of the thesis, the role of physical activity in COPD was studied, focusing factors that may influence daily physical activity; the evolution of functional capacity and health status two years after a PR program, and the role of a telemonitoring system in physical activity quantification and monitoring. We confirmed that COPD patients are markedly inactive and factors associated with a sedentary lifestyle are dyspnea and 6 minute walking distance. This study emphasized the importance of symptom control, namely of dyspnea, as well as, once again, the potential role of PR in functional exercise improvement and in integrating physically active habits in daily life. We verified that, although COPD patients improve functional exercise capacity and health status after a PR program, only those who kept physical activity habits were able to maintain those effects after 2 years of follow-up. A telemonitoring system that combines oximetry and physical activity quantification proved to be clinically useful in the evaluation of long-term oxygen therapy (LTOT) indication, as well as in the titration of oxygen levels at rest, exertion, and sleeping, which might contribute to a more adequate LTOT prescription. Monitoring of daily physical activity levels is an important PR evaluation instrument and its potential use in telerehabilitation might allow lengthening programs efficacy, while reducing health-care costs.
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Os aquivos municipais preservam a documentação definida legalmente como de conservação permanente, a memória e a experiência da Administração Local e, como tal, são agentes imprescindíveis à preservação dos direitos municipais. A preocupação com a preservação da documentação deve constituir um dos pilares principais do arquivo desde o início da sua criação. E não somente quando a documentação é transferida para o Arquivo Histórico, deve estar presente durante todo o ciclo de vida da documentação. Com a criação do PARAM (Programa de Apoio à Rede de Arquivos Municipais), os arquivos municipais ganham um novo incremento, não só a nível técnico como a nível financeiro, sendo-lhe reconhecido o seu devido valor e importância, na sua dupla dimensão, administrativa e cultural. Uma das funções do arquivo é disponibilizar a documentação que têm à sua guarda e que se encontra armazenada nos depósitos. Para tal é fundamental criar condições a curto, a médio e a longo prazo, implementando toda uma política integrada de preservação, envolvendo os demais serviços da instituição, fazendo-se o controlo do estado de conservação da documentação, aplicando uma metodologia da manipulação de documentos para disponibilizá-los tanto aos clientes internos como externos. O Arquivo Intermédio da Câmara Municipal de Sintra não possui plano de preservação documental, nem ações de preservação extensíveis aos objetos digitais, daí que a presente tese de mestrado pretenda ser um proposta de um contributo de um plano de preservação, que tenha em consideração os demais aspetos desde a localização e construção ou manutenção do edifício onde se encontra o arquivo, questões de segurança, de controlo ambiental, de luz/fotodegradação, o controlo integrado de pragas, danos causados por água, os desastres naturais, a poluição, a limpeza e vigilância na zona de depósitos e armazenamento e manuseamento dos documentos.
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\The idea that social processes develop in a cyclical manner is somewhat like a `Lorelei'. Researchers are lured to it because of its theoretical promise, only to become entangled in (if not wrecked by) messy problems of empirical inference. The reasoning leading to hypotheses of some kind of cycle is often elegant enough, yet the data from repeated observations rarely display the supposed cyclical pattern. (...) In addition, various `schools' seem to exist which frequently arrive at di erent conclusions on the basis of the same data." (van der Eijk and Weber 1987:271). Much of the empirical controversies around these issues arise because of three distinct problems: the coexistence of cycles of di erent periodicities, the possibility of transient cycles and the existence of cycles without xed periodicity. In some cases, there are no reasons to expect any of these phenomena to be relevant. Seasonality caused by Christmas is one such example (Wen 2002). In such cases, researchers mostly rely on spectral analysis and Auto-Regressive Moving-Average (ARMA) models to estimate the periodicity of cycles.1 However, and this is particularly true in social sciences, sometimes there are good theoretical reasons to expect irregular cycles. In such cases, \the identi cation of periodic movement in something like the vote is a daunting task all by itself. When a pendulum swings with an irregular beat (frequency), and the extent of the swing (amplitude) is not constant, mathematical functions like sine-waves are of no use."(Lebo and Norpoth 2007:73) In the past, this di culty has led to two di erent approaches. On the one hand, some researchers dismissed these methods altogether, relying on informal alternatives that do not meet rigorous standards of statistical inference. Goldstein (1985 and 1988), studying the severity of Great power wars is one such example. On the other hand, there are authors who transfer the assumptions of spectral analysis (and ARMA models) into fundamental assumptions about the nature of social phenomena. This type of argument was produced by Beck (1991) who, in a reply to Goldstein (1988), claimed that only \ xed period models are meaningful models of cyclic phenomena".We argue that wavelet analysis|a mathematical framework developed in the mid-1980s (Grossman and Morlet 1984; Goupillaud et al. 1984) | is a very viable alternative to study cycles in political time-series. It has the advantage of staying close to the frequency domain approach of spectral analysis while addressing its main limitations. Its principal contribution comes from estimating the spectral characteristics of a time-series as a function of time, thus revealing how its di erent periodic components may change over time. The rest of article proceeds as follows. In the section \Time-frequency Analysis", we study in some detail the continuous wavelet transform and compare its time-frequency properties with the more standard tool for that purpose, the windowed Fourier transform. In the section \The British Political Pendulum", we apply wavelet analysis to essentially the same data analyzed by Lebo and Norpoth (2007) and Merrill, Grofman and Brunell (2011) and try to provide a more nuanced answer to the same question discussed by these authors: do British electoral politics exhibit cycles? Finally, in the last section, we present a concise list of future directions.
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"Lecture notes in computational vision and biomechanics series, ISSN 2212-9391, vol. 19"