Behavioural queueing : cellular automata and a laboratory experiment

Dans cette thèse, nous étudions les aspects comportementaux d'agents qui interagissent dans des systèmes de files d'attente à l'aide de modèles de simulation et de méthodologies expérimentales. Chaque période les clients doivent choisir un prestataire de servivce. L'objectif est d'analyser l'impact des décisions des clients et des prestataires sur la formation des files d'attente. Dans un premier cas nous considérons des clients ayant un certain degré d'aversion au risque. Sur la base de leur perception de l'attente moyenne et de la variabilité de cette attente, ils forment une estimation de la limite supérieure de l'attente chez chacun des prestataires. Chaque période, ils choisissent le prestataire pour lequel cette estimation est la plus basse. Nos résultats indiquent qu'il n'y a pas de relation monotone entre le degré d'aversion au risque et la performance globale. En effet, une population de clients ayant un degré d'aversion au risque intermédiaire encoure généralement une attente moyenne plus élevée qu'une population d'agents indifférents au risque ou très averses au risque. Ensuite, nous incorporons les décisions des prestataires en leur permettant d'ajuster leur capacité de service sur la base de leur perception de la fréquence moyenne d'arrivées. Les résultats montrent que le comportement des clients et les décisions des prestataires présentent une forte "dépendance au sentier". En outre, nous montrons que les décisions des prestataires font converger l'attente moyenne pondérée vers l'attente de référence du marché. Finalement, une expérience de laboratoire dans laquelle des sujets jouent le rôle de prestataire de service nous a permis de conclure que les délais d'installation et de démantèlement de capacité affectent de manière significative la performance et les décisions des sujets. En particulier, les décisions du prestataire, sont influencées par ses commandes en carnet, sa capacité de service actuellement disponible et les décisions d'ajustement de capacité qu'il a prises, mais pas encore implémentées. - Queuing is a fact of life that we witness daily. We all have had the experience of waiting in line for some reason and we also know that it is an annoying situation. As the adage says "time is money"; this is perhaps the best way of stating what queuing problems mean for customers. Human beings are not very tolerant, but they are even less so when having to wait in line for service. Banks, roads, post offices and restaurants are just some examples where people must wait for service. Studies of queuing phenomena have typically addressed the optimisation of performance measures (e.g. average waiting time, queue length and server utilisation rates) and the analysis of equilibrium solutions. The individual behaviour of the agents involved in queueing systems and their decision making process have received little attention. Although this work has been useful to improve the efficiency of many queueing systems, or to design new processes in social and physical systems, it has only provided us with a limited ability to explain the behaviour observed in many real queues. In this dissertation we differ from this traditional research by analysing how the agents involved in the system make decisions instead of focusing on optimising performance measures or analysing an equilibrium solution. This dissertation builds on and extends the framework proposed by van Ackere and Larsen (2004) and van Ackere et al. (2010). We focus on studying behavioural aspects in queueing systems and incorporate this still underdeveloped framework into the operations management field. In the first chapter of this thesis we provide a general introduction to the area, as well as an overview of the results. In Chapters 2 and 3, we use Cellular Automata (CA) to model service systems where captive interacting customers must decide each period which facility to join for service. They base this decision on their expectations of sojourn times. Each period, customers use new information (their most recent experience and that of their best performing neighbour) to form expectations of sojourn time at the different facilities. Customers update their expectations using an adaptive expectations process to combine their memory and their new information. We label "conservative" those customers who give more weight to their memory than to the xiv Summary new information. In contrast, when they give more weight to new information, we call them "reactive". In Chapter 2, we consider customers with different degree of risk-aversion who take into account uncertainty. They choose which facility to join based on an estimated upper-bound of the sojourn time which they compute using their perceptions of the average sojourn time and the level of uncertainty. We assume the same exogenous service capacity for all facilities, which remains constant throughout. We first analyse the collective behaviour generated by the customers' decisions. We show that the system achieves low weighted average sojourn times when the collective behaviour results in neighbourhoods of customers loyal to a facility and the customers are approximately equally split among all facilities. The lowest weighted average sojourn time is achieved when exactly the same number of customers patronises each facility, implying that they do not wish to switch facility. In this case, the system has achieved the Nash equilibrium. We show that there is a non-monotonic relationship between the degree of risk-aversion and system performance. Customers with an intermediate degree of riskaversion typically achieve higher sojourn times; in particular they rarely achieve the Nash equilibrium. Risk-neutral customers have the highest probability of achieving the Nash Equilibrium. Chapter 3 considers a service system similar to the previous one but with risk-neutral customers, and relaxes the assumption of exogenous service rates. In this sense, we model a queueing system with endogenous service rates by enabling managers to adjust the service capacity of the facilities. We assume that managers do so based on their perceptions of the arrival rates and use the same principle of adaptive expectations to model these perceptions. We consider service systems in which the managers' decisions take time to be implemented. Managers are characterised by a profile which is determined by the speed at which they update their perceptions, the speed at which they take decisions, and how coherent they are when accounting for their previous decisions still to be implemented when taking their next decision. We find that the managers' decisions exhibit a strong path-dependence: owing to the initial conditions of the model, the facilities of managers with identical profiles can evolve completely differently. In some cases the system becomes "locked-in" into a monopoly or duopoly situation. The competition between managers causes the weighted average sojourn time of the system to converge to the exogenous benchmark value which they use to estimate their desired capacity. Concerning the managers' profile, we found that the more conservative Summary xv a manager is regarding new information, the larger the market share his facility achieves. Additionally, the faster he takes decisions, the higher the probability that he achieves a monopoly position. In Chapter 4 we consider a one-server queueing system with non-captive customers. We carry out an experiment aimed at analysing the way human subjects, taking on the role of the manager, take decisions in a laboratory regarding the capacity of a service facility. We adapt the model proposed by van Ackere et al (2010). This model relaxes the assumption of a captive market and allows current customers to decide whether or not to use the facility. Additionally the facility also has potential customers who currently do not patronise it, but might consider doing so in the future. We identify three groups of subjects whose decisions cause similar behavioural patterns. These groups are labelled: gradual investors, lumpy investors, and random investor. Using an autocorrelation analysis of the subjects' decisions, we illustrate that these decisions are positively correlated to the decisions taken one period early. Subsequently we formulate a heuristic to model the decision rule considered by subjects in the laboratory. We found that this decision rule fits very well for those subjects who gradually adjust capacity, but it does not capture the behaviour of the subjects of the other two groups. In Chapter 5 we summarise the results and provide suggestions for further work. Our main contribution is the use of simulation and experimental methodologies to explain the collective behaviour generated by customers' and managers' decisions in queueing systems as well as the analysis of the individual behaviour of these agents. In this way, we differ from the typical literature related to queueing systems which focuses on optimising performance measures and the analysis of equilibrium solutions. Our work can be seen as a first step towards understanding the interaction between customer behaviour and the capacity adjustment process in queueing systems. This framework is still in its early stages and accordingly there is a large potential for further work that spans several research topics. Interesting extensions to this work include incorporating other characteristics of queueing systems which affect the customers' experience (e.g. balking, reneging and jockeying); providing customers and managers with additional information to take their decisions (e.g. service price, quality, customers' profile); analysing different decision rules and studying other characteristics which determine the profile of customers and managers.

Effect of Video Camera-Based Remote Roadway Condition Monitoring on Snow Removal-Related Maintenance Operations. 2014

Remote monitoring through the use of cameras is widely utilized for traffic operation, but has not been utilized widely for roadway maintenance operations. The Utah Department of Transportation (UDOT) has implemented a new remote monitoring system, referred to as a Cloud-enabled Remote Video Streaming (CRVS) camera system for snow removal-related maintenance operations in the winter. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of the use of the CRVS camera system in snow removal-related maintenance operations. This study was conducted in two parts: opinion surveys of maintenance station supervisors and an analysis on snow removal-related maintenance costs. The responses to the opinion surveys mostly displayed positive reviews of the use of the CRVS cameras. On a scale of 1 (least effective) to 5 (most effective), the average overall effectiveness given by the station supervisors was 4.3. An expedition trip for this study was defined as a trip that was made to just check the roadways if snow-removal was necessary. The average of the responses received from surveys was calculated to be a 33 percent reduction in expedition trips. For the second part of this study, an analysis was performed on the snow removal-related maintenance cost data provided by UDOT to see if the installation of a CRVS camera had an effect in reducing expedition trips. This expedition cost comparison was performed for 10 sets of maintenance stations within Utah. It was difficult to make any definitive inferences from the comparison of expedition costs over the years for which precipitation and expedition cost data were available; hence a statistical analysis was performed using the Mixed Model ANOVA. This analysis resulted in an average of 14 percent higher ratio of expedition costs at maintenance stations with a CRVS camera before the installation of the camera compared to the ratio of expedition costs after the installation of the camera. This difference was not proven to be statistically significant at the 95 percent confident level, but indicated that the installation of CRVS cameras was on the average helpful in reducing expedition costs and may be considered practically significant. It is recommended that more detailed and consistent maintenance cost records be prepared for accurate analysis of cost records for this type of study in the future.

Remote collaborative multi-user informal learning experiences: design and evaluation

This paper presents a customizable system used to develop a collaborative multi-user problem solving game. It addresses the increasing demand for appealing informal learning experiences in museum-like settings. The system facilitates remote collaboration by allowing groups of learners tocommunicate through a videoconferencing system and by allowing them to simultaneously interact through a shared multi-touch interactive surface. A user study with 20 user groups indicates that the game facilitates collaboration between local and remote groups of learners. The videoconference and multitouch surface acted as communication channels, attracted students’ interest, facilitated engagement, and promoted inter- and intra-group collaboration—favoring intra-group collaboration. Our findings suggest that augmentingvideoconferencing systems with a shared multitouch space offers newpossibilities and scenarios for remote collaborative environments and collaborative learning.

Effects of Cement on Moisture Migration in Concrete, Phase A, Laboratory Study of Moisture Migration in Hardened Cement Paste, HR-141, 1972

The Columbus Laboratories of Battelle Memorial Institute is currently conducting a study of the effect of cement on moisture migration in concrete as related to the problem of D-cracking of portland cement concrete pavements. The study began on December 31, 1970, and is planned as a 3-year program. The work plan, approved by the policy committee of the members of the Iowa, Kansas, and Missouri highway departments and the Federal Highway Administration, is composed of four parts. The first phase (A) of the investigation concerned the movement of moisture into and from hardened cement pastes and the dimensional changes accompanying the moisture changes. Small slab specimens of hardened neat cement pastes were prepared from 32 different cements which were prepared at the same water/cement ratio and hydrated to the same maturity factor.

Use of active personal dosemeters in interventional radiology and cardiology: Tests in laboratory conditions and recommendations - ORAMED project

Active personal dosemeters (APD) have been found to be very efficient tools to reduce occupational doses in many applications of ionizing radiation. In order to be used in interventional radiology and cardiology (IR/IC), APDs should be able to measure low energy photons and pulsed radiation with relatively high instantaneous personal dose equivalent rates. A study concerning the optimization of the use of APDs in IR/IC was performed in the framework of the ORAMED project, a Collaborative Project (2008-2011) supported by the European Commission within its 7th Framework Program. In particular, eight commercial APDs were tested in continuous and pulsed X-ray fields delivered by calibration laboratories in order to evaluate their performances. Most of APDs provide a response in pulsed mode more or less affected by the personal dose equivalent rate, which means they could be used in routine monitoring provided that correction factors are introduced. These results emphasize the importance of adding tests in pulsed mode in type-test procedures for APDs. Some general recommendations are proposed in the end of this paper for the selection and use of APDs at IR/IC workplaces.

A Laboratory Investigation of An Accelerated Polishing Method for Determining the Skid Resistance Potential of Aggregates, MLR-76-02 and R-264, 1976

An initial feasibility study indicated that the "Purdue Accelerated Polishing Method" gave repeatable results when testing the skid resistance of laboratory specimens. The results also showed a rough correlation with the field performance of the same aggregate sources. The research was then expanded to include all available asphalt aggregates. The results of the expanded study indicated that the method is not presently capable of developing and measuring the full skid potential of the various aggregate sources. Further research in the area of polishing times and/or pressures is needed.

Laboratory Study of the Leachate from Crushed Portland Cement Concrete Base Material, MLR-96-04, 1999

Since the 1980s, the Iowa Department of Transportation has increased its use of recycled Portland Cement Concrete (PCC) as drainable base material below some new pavements. Water flowing out of the longitudinal drains on projects having recycled PCC drainable bases was found to have a high pH value. The high pH water impedes vegetation growth and becomes a contributing factor to soil erosion at the drain outlet. In addition, the high pH water contributes to the growth of crystalline deposits on the drain outlet wire mesh rodent guard and in some cases caused it to become completely blocked. This research determined which of three choices of recycled PCC drainable base material, gradation, and design would give the lowest pH value in the drain discharge water. The drainable base material having its fines separated out and placed as a 2-in. (5.1-mm) bottom layer, below the remaining coarse material, generally gave pH values around 11.2 while other designs tested gave pH values around 11.5.

Evaluation of Long-Term Field Performance of Cold In-Place Recycled Roads: Field and Laboratory Testing, TR-502, 2007

Cold in-place recycling (CIR) has become an attractive method for rehabilitating asphalt roads that have good subgrade support and are suffering distress related to non-structural aging and cracking of the pavement layer. Although CIR is widely used, its use could be expanded if its performance were more predictable. Transportation officials have observed roads that were recycled under similar circumstances perform very differently for no clear reason. Moreover, a rational mix design has not yet been developed, design assumptions regarding the structural support of the CIR layer remain empirical and conservative, and there is no clear understanding of the cause-effect relationships between the choices made during the design/construction process and the resulting performance. The objective of this project is to investigate these relationships, especially concerning the age of the recycled pavement, cumulative traffic volume, support conditions, aged engineering properties of the CIR materials, and road performance. Twenty-four CIR asphalt roads constructed in Iowa from 1986 to 2004 were studied: 18 were selected from a sample of roads studied in a previous research project (HR-392), and 6 were selected from newer CIR projects constructed after 1999. This report describes the results of comprehensive field and laboratory testing for these CIR asphalt roads. The results indicate that the modulus of the CIR layer and the air voids of the CIR asphalt binder were the most important factors affecting CIR pavement performance for high-traffic roads. For low-traffic roads, the wet indirect tensile strength significantly affected pavement performance. The results of this research can help identify changes that should be made with regard to design, material selection, and construction in order to improve the performance and cost-effectiveness of future recycled roads.

Field and Laboratory Evaluation of Precast Concrete Bridges, TR-440, 2001

Recent data compiled by the National Bridge Inventory revealed 29% of Iowa's approximate 24,600 bridges were either structurally deficient or functionally obsolete. This large number of deficient bridges and the high cost of needed repairs create unique problems for Iowa and many other states. The research objective of this project was to determine the load capacity of a particular type of deteriorating bridge – the precast concrete deck bridge – which is commonly found on Iowa's secondary roads. The number of these precast concrete structures requiring load postings and/or replacement can be significantly reduced if the deteriorated structures are found to have adequate load capacity or can be reliably evaluated. Approximately 600 precast concrete deck bridges (PCDBs) exist in Iowa. A typical PCDB span is 19 to 36 ft long and consists of eight to ten simply supported precast panels. Bolts and either a pipe shear key or a grouted shear key are used to join adjacent panels. The panels resemble a steel channel in cross-section; the web is orientated horizontally and forms the roadway deck and the legs act as shallow beams. The primary longitudinal reinforcing steel bundled in each of the legs frequently corrodes and causes longitudinal cracks in the concrete and spalling. The research team performed service load tests on four deteriorated PCDBs; two with shear keys in place and two without. Conventional strain gages were used to measure strains in both the steel and concrete, and transducers were used to measure vertical deflections. Based on the field results, it was determined that these bridges have sufficient lateral load distribution and adequate strength when shear keys are properly installed between adjacent panels. The measured lateral load distribution factors are larger than AASHTO values when shear keys were not installed. Since some of the reinforcement had hooks, deterioration of the reinforcement has a minimal affect on the service level performance of the bridges when there is minimal loss of cross-sectional area. Laboratory tests were performed on the PCDB panels obtained from three bridge replacement projects. Twelve deteriorated panels were loaded to failure in a four point bending arrangement. Although the panels had significant deflections prior to failure, the experimental capacity of eleven panels exceeded the theoretical capacity. Experimental capacity of the twelfth panel, an extremely distressed panel, was only slightly below the theoretical capacity. Service tests and an ultimate strength test were performed on a laboratory bridge model consisting of four joined panels to determine the effect of various shear connection configurations. These data were used to validate a PCDB finite element model that can provide more accurate live load distribution factors for use in rating calculations. Finally, a strengthening system was developed and tested for use in situations where one or more panels of an existing PCDB need strengthening.

Identification of Laboratory Techniques to Optimize Superpave HMA Surface Friction Characteristics, TR-450, 2010

Wet pavement friction is known to be one of the most important roadway safety parameters. In this research, frictional properties of flexible (asphalt) pavements were investigated. As a part of this study, a laboratory device to polish asphalt specimens was refined and a procedure to evaluate mixture frictional properties was proposed. Following this procedure, 46 different Superpave mixtures, one stone matrix asphalt (SMA) mixture and one porous friction course (PFC) mixture were tested. In addition, 23 different asphalt and two concrete field sections were also tested for friction and noise. The results of both field and laboratory measurements were used to develop an International Friction Index (IFI)-based protocol for measurement of the frictional characteristics of asphalt pavements for laboratory friction measurements. Based on the results of the study, it appears the content of high friction aggregate should be 20% or more of the total aggregate blend when used with other, polish susceptible coarse aggregates; the frictional properties increased substantially as the friction aggregate content increased above 20%. Both steel slag and quartzite were found to improve the frictional properties of the blend, though steel slag had a lower polishing rate. In general, mixes containing soft limestone demonstrated lower friction values than comparable mixes with hard limestone or dolomite. Larger nominal maximum aggregate size mixes had better overall frictional performance than smaller sized mixes. In addition, mixes with higher fineness moduli generally had higher macrotexture and friction.

Laboratory Performance Evaluation of CIR-Emulsion and its Comparison Against CIR-Foam Test Results from Phase 2, TR-474, 2009

Currently, no standard mix design procedure is available for CIR-emulsion in Iowa. The CIR-foam mix design process developed during the previous phase is applied for CIR-emulsion mixtures with varying emulsified asphalt contents. Dynamic modulus test, dynamic creep test, static creep test and raveling test were conducted to evaluate the short- and long-term performance of CIR-emulsion mixtures at various testing temperatures and loading conditions. A potential benefit of this research is a better understanding of CIR-emulsion material properties in comparison with those of CIR-foam material that would allow for the selection of the most appropriate CIR technology and the type and amount of the optimum stabilization material. Dynamic modulus, flow number and flow time of CIR-emulsion mixtures using CSS- 1h were generally higher than those of HFMS-2p. Flow number and flow time of CIR-emulsion using RAP materials from Story County was higher than those from Clayton County. Flow number and flow time of CIR-emulsion with 0.5% emulsified asphalt was higher than CIR-emulsion with 1.0% or 1.5%. Raveling loss of CIR-emulsion with 1.5% emulsified was significantly less than those with 0.5% and 1.0%. Test results in terms of dynamic modulus, flow number, flow time and raveling loss of CIR-foam mixtures are generally better than those of CIR-emulsion mixtures. Given the limited RAP sources used for this study, it is recommended that the CIR-emulsion mix design procedure should be validated against several RAP sources and emulsion types.

Manual of Laboratory Mix Design Procedure for Cold In-Place Recycling using Foamed Asphalt (CIR-foam), TR-474, 2007

The objective is to determine the optimum percentage of water needed to produce the best foam properties for a given asphalt binder. The optimum water content is determined by achieving the maximum expansion ratio and half-life of the foamed asphalt. Expansion ratio is defined as the maximum volume over its original volume and half-life is defined as the time in seconds for foam to become a half of its maximum volume.

Spectral induced polarization: Laboratory measurements on sandy quartz samples of varied pore characteristics

Understanding the influence of pore space characteristics on the hydraulic conductivity and spectral induced polarization (SIP) response is critical for establishing relationships between the electrical and hydrological properties of surficial sedimentary deposits. Here, we present the results of laboratory SIP measurements on saturated quartz samples with granulometric characteristics ranging from fine sand to fine gravel. We alter the pore characteristics using three principal methods: (i) variation of the grain sizes, (ii) changing the degree of compaction, and (iii) changing the level of sorting. We then examine how these changes affect both the SIP response and the hydraulic conductivity. In general, the results indicate a clear connection between the applied changes in pore characteristics and the SIP response. In particular, we observe a systematic correlation between the hydraulic conductivity and the relaxation time of the Cole-Cole model describing the observed SIP effect for the whole range of considered grain sizes.

Laboratory Investigation of Concrete Beam-End Treatments, RB08-013, 2015

The ends of prestressed concrete beams under expansion joints are often exposed to moisture and chlorides. Left unprotected, the moisture and chlorides come in contact with the ends of the prestressing strands and/or the mild reinforcing, resulting in corrosion. Once deterioration begins, it progresses unless some process is employed to address it. Deterioration can lead to loss of bearing area and therefore a reduction in bridge capacity. Previous research has looked into the use of concrete coatings (silanes, epoxies, fiber-reinforced polymers, etc.) for protecting prestressed concrete beam ends but found that little to no laboratory research has been done related to the performance of these coatings in this specific type of application. The Iowa Department of Transportation (DOT) currently specifies coating the ends of exposed prestressed concrete beams with Sikagard 62 (a high-build, protective, solvent-free, epoxy coating) at the precast plant prior to installation on the bridge. However, no physical testing of Sikagard 62 in this application has been completed. In addition, the Iowa DOT continues to see deterioration in the prestressed concrete beam ends, even those treated with Sikagard 62. The goals of this project were to evaluate the performance of the Iowa DOT-specified beam-end coating as well as other concrete coating alternatives based on the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) T259-80 chloride ion penetration test and to test their performance on in-service bridges throughout the duration of the project. In addition, alternative beam-end forming details were developed and evaluated for their potential to mitigate and/or eliminate the deterioration caused by corrosion of the prestressing strands on prestressed concrete beam ends used in bridges with expansion joints. The alternative beam-end details consisted of individual strand blockouts, an individual blockout for a cluster of strands, dual blockouts for two clusters of strands, and drilling out the strands after they are flush cut. The goal of all of the forming alternatives was to offset the ends of the prestressing strands from the end face of the beam and then cover them with a grout/concrete layer, thereby limiting or eliminating their exposure to moisture and chlorides.