Transcutaneous carbon dioxide and oxygen tension in newborn infants: reliability of a combined monitor of oxygen tension and carbon dioxide tension.

We evaluated a new combined sensor for monitoring transcutaneous carbon dioxide tension (PtcCO2) and oxygen tension (PtcO2) in 20 critically ill newborn infants. Arterial oxygen tension (PaO2) ranged from 16 to 126 torr and arterial carbon dioxide tension (PaCO2) from 14 to 72 torr. Linear correlation analysis (100 paired values) of PtcO2 versus PaO2 showed an r value of 0.75 with a regression equation of PtcO2 = 8.59 + 0.905 (PaO2), while PtcCO2 versus PaCO2 revealed a correlation coefficient of r = 0.89 with an equation of PtcCO2 = 2.53 + 1.06 (PaCO2). The bias between PaO2 and PtcO2 was -2.8 with a precision of +/- 16.0 torr (range, -87 to +48 torr). The bias between PaCO2 and PtcCO2 was -5.1 with a precision of +/- 7.3 torr (range, -34 to +8 torr). The transcutaneous sensor detected 83% of hypoxia (PaO2 less than 45 torr), 75% of hyperoxia (PaO2 greater than 90 torr), 45% of hypocapnia (PaCO2 less than 35 torr), and 96% of hypercapnia (PaCO2 greater than 45 torr). We conclude that the reliability of the combined transcutaneous PO2 and PCO2 monitor in sick neonates is good for detecting hypercapnia, fair for hypoxia and hyperoxia, but poor for hypocapnia. It is an improvement in that it spares available skin surface and requires less handling, but it appears to be slightly less accurate than the single electrodes.

Statistical analysis and modelling of weather radar beam propagation conditions in the Po Valley (Italy)

Ground clutter caused by anomalous propagation (anaprop) can affect seriously radar rain rate estimates, particularly in fully automatic radar processing systems, and, if not filtered, can produce frequent false alarms. A statistical study of anomalous propagation detected from two operational C-band radars in the northern Italian region of Emilia Romagna is discussed, paying particular attention to its diurnal and seasonal variability. The analysis shows a high incidence of anaprop in summer, mainly in the morning and evening, due to the humid and hot summer climate of the Po Valley, particularly in the coastal zone. Thereafter, a comparison between different techniques and datasets to retrieve the vertical profile of the refractive index gradient in the boundary layer is also presented. In particular, their capability to detect anomalous propagation conditions is compared. Furthermore, beam path trajectories are simulated using a multilayer ray-tracing model and the influence of the propagation conditions on the beam trajectory and shape is examined. High resolution radiosounding data are identified as the best available dataset to reproduce accurately the local propagation conditions, while lower resolution standard TEMP data suffers from interpolation degradation and Numerical Weather Prediction model data (Lokal Model) are able to retrieve a tendency to superrefraction but not to detect ducting conditions. Observing the ray tracing of the centre, lower and upper limits of the radar antenna 3-dB half-power main beam lobe it is concluded that ducting layers produce a change in the measured volume and in the power distribution that can lead to an additional error in the reflectivity estimate and, subsequently, in the estimated rainfall rate.

Modelling the risk of nitrate leaching from two soils amended with five different biosolids

High N concentrations in biosolids are one of the strongest reasons for their agricultural use. However, it is essential to understand the fate of N in soils treated with biosolids for both plant nutrition and managing the environmental risk of NO3--N leaching. This work aimed at evaluating the risk of NO3--N leaching from a Spodosol and an Oxisol, each one treated with 0.5-8.0 dry Mg ha-1 of fresh tertiary sewage sludge, composted biosolids, limed biosolids, heat-dried biosolids and solar-irradiated biosolids. Results indicated that under similar application rates NO3--N accumulated up to three times more in the 20 cm topsoil of the Oxisol than the Spodosol. However, a higher water content held at field capacity in the Oxisol compensated for the greater nitrate concentrations. A 20 % NO3--N loss from the root zone in the amended Oxisol could be expected. Depending on the biosolids type, 42 to 76 % of the NO3--N accumulated in the Spodosol could be expected to leach down from the amended 20 cm topsoil. NO3--N expected to leach from the Spodosol ranged from 0.8 (composted sludge) to 3.5 times (limed sludge) the amounts leaching from the Oxisol treated alike. Nevertheless, the risk of NO3--N groundwater contamination as a result of a single biosolids land application at 0.5-8.0 dry Mg ha-1 could be considered low.

Non invasive transcutaneous blood carboxyhemoglobine level: reliability in victims of carbon monoxide poisoning

Introduction: Carbon monoxide (CO) poisoning is one of the mostcommon causes of fatal poisoning. Symptoms of CO poisoning arenonspecific and the documentation of elevated carboxyhemoglobin(HbCO) levels in arterial blood sample is the only standard ofconfirming suspected exposure. The treatment of CO poisoning requiresnormobaric or hyperbaric oxygen therapy, according to the symptomsand HbCO levels. A new device, the Rad-57 pulse CO-oximeter allowsnoninvasive transcutaneous measurement of blood carboxyhemoglobinlevel (SpCO) by measurement of light wavelength absorptions.Methods: Prospective cohort study with a sample of patients, admittedbetween October 2008 - March 2009 and October 2009 - March 2010,in the emergency services (ES) of a Swiss regional hospital and aSwiss university hospital (Burn Center). In case of suspected COpoisoning, three successive noninvasive measurements wereperformed, simultaneously with one arterial blood HbCO test. A controlgroup includes patients admitted in the ES for other complaints (cardiacinsufficiency, respiratory distress, acute renal failure), but necessitatingarterial blood testing. Informed consent was obtained from all patients.The primary endpoint was to assess the agreement of themeasurements made by the Rad-57 (SpCO) and the blood levels(HbCO).Results: 50 patients were enrolled, among whom 32 were admittedfor suspected CO poisoning. Baseline demographic and clinicalcharacteristics of patients are presented in table 1. The median age was37.7 ans ± 11.8, 56% being male. Median laboratory carboxyhemoglobinlevels (HbCO) were 4.25% (95% IC 0.6-28.5) for intoxicated patientsand 1.8% (95% IC 1.0-5.3) for control patients. Only five patientspresented with HbCO levels >= 15%. The results disclose relatively faircorrelations between the SpCO levels obtained by the Rad-57 and thestandard HbCO, without any false negative results. However, theRad-57 tend to under-estimate the value of SpCO for patientsintoxicated HbCO levels >10% (fig. 1).Conclusion: Noninvasive transcutaneous measurement of bloodcarboxyhemoglobin level is easy to use. The correlation seems to becorrect for low to moderate levels (<15%). For higher values, weobserve a trend of the Rad-57 to under-estimate the HbCO levels. Apartfrom this potential limitation and a few cases of false-negative resultsdescribed in the literature, the Rad-57 may be useful for initial triageand diagnosis of CO.

Building a Social Accounting Matrix within the ESA95 Framework: Obtaining a Dataset for Applied General Equilibrium Modelling

This research provides a description of the process followed in order to assemble a "Social Accounting Matrix" for Spain corresponding to the year 2000 (SAMSP00). As argued in the paper, this process attempts to reconcile ESA95 conventions with requirements of applied general equilibrium modelling. Particularly, problems related to the level of aggregation of net taxation data, and to the valuation system used for expressing the monetary value of input-output transactions have deserved special attention. Since the adoption of ESA95 conventions, input-output transactions have been preferably valued at basic prices, which impose additional difficulties on modellers interested in computing applied general equilibrium models. This paper addresses these difficulties by developing a procedure that allows SAM-builders to change the valuation system of input-output transactions conveniently. In addition, this procedure produces new data related to net taxation information.

Stochastic Population Projection for Germany - based on the Quadratic Spline approach to modelling age specific fertility rates

This contribution builds upon a former paper by the authors (Lipps and Betz 2004), in which a stochastic population projection for East- and West Germany is performed. Aim was to forecast relevant population parameters and their distribution in a consistent way. We now present some modifications, which have been modelled since. First, population parameters for the entire German population are modelled. In order to overcome the modelling problem of the structural break in the East during reunification, we show that the adaptation process of the relevant figures by the East can be considered to be completed by now. As a consequence, German parameters can be modelled just by using the West German historic patterns, with the start-off population of entire Germany. Second, a new model to simulate age specific fertility rates is presented, based on a quadratic spline approach. This offers a higher flexibility to model various age specific fertility curves. The simulation results are compared with the scenario based official forecasts for Germany in 2050. Exemplary for some population parameters (e.g. dependency ratio), it can be shown that the range spanned by the medium and extreme variants correspond to the s-intervals in the stochastic framework. It seems therefore more appropriate to treat this range as a s-interval covering about two thirds of the true distribution.

Analysis, modelling and classification of geospatial data using machine learning

The research considers the problem of spatial data classification using machine learning algorithms: probabilistic neural networks (PNN) and support vector machines (SVM). As a benchmark model simple k-nearest neighbor algorithm is considered. PNN is a neural network reformulation of well known nonparametric principles of probability density modeling using kernel density estimator and Bayesian optimal or maximum a posteriori decision rules. PNN is well suited to problems where not only predictions but also quantification of accuracy and integration of prior information are necessary. An important property of PNN is that they can be easily used in decision support systems dealing with problems of automatic classification. Support vector machine is an implementation of the principles of statistical learning theory for the classification tasks. Recently they were successfully applied for different environmental topics: classification of soil types and hydro-geological units, optimization of monitoring networks, susceptibility mapping of natural hazards. In the present paper both simulated and real data case studies (low and high dimensional) are considered. The main attention is paid to the detection and learning of spatial patterns by the algorithms applied.

On the consequences of misspecifing assumptions concerning residuals distribution in a repeated measures and nonlinear mixed modelling context

In this paper we describe the results of a simulation study performed to elucidate the robustness of the Lindstrom and Bates (1990) approximation method under non-normality of the residuals, under different situations. Concerning the fixed effects, the observed coverage probabilities and the true bias and mean square error values, show that some aspects of this inferential approach are not completely reliable. When the true distribution of the residuals is asymmetrical, the true coverage is markedly lower than the nominal one. The best results are obtained for the skew normal distribution, and not for the normal distribution. On the other hand, the results are partially reversed concerning the random effects. Soybean genotypes data are used to illustrate the methods and to motivate the simulation scenarios

SBML qualitative models: a model representation format and infrastructure to foster interactions between qualitative modelling formalisms and tools.

BACKGROUND: Qualitative frameworks, especially those based on the logical discrete formalism, are increasingly used to model regulatory and signalling networks. A major advantage of these frameworks is that they do not require precise quantitative data, and that they are well-suited for studies of large networks. While numerous groups have developed specific computational tools that provide original methods to analyse qualitative models, a standard format to exchange qualitative models has been missing. RESULTS: We present the Systems Biology Markup Language (SBML) Qualitative Models Package ("qual"), an extension of the SBML Level 3 standard designed for computer representation of qualitative models of biological networks. We demonstrate the interoperability of models via SBML qual through the analysis of a specific signalling network by three independent software tools. Furthermore, the collective effort to define the SBML qual format paved the way for the development of LogicalModel, an open-source model library, which will facilitate the adoption of the format as well as the collaborative development of algorithms to analyse qualitative models. CONCLUSIONS: SBML qual allows the exchange of qualitative models among a number of complementary software tools. SBML qual has the potential to promote collaborative work on the development of novel computational approaches, as well as on the specification and the analysis of comprehensive qualitative models of regulatory and signalling networks.

SIMSAFADIM-CLASTIC: A new approach to mathematical 3D forward simulation modelling for terrigenous and carbonate marine sedimentation

Most sedimentary modelling programs developed in recent years focus on either terrigenous or carbonate marine sedimentation. Nevertheless, only a few programs have attempted to consider mixed terrigenous-carbonate sedimentation, and most of these are two-dimensional, which is a major restriction since geological processes take place in 3D. This paper presents the basic concepts of a new 3D mathematical forward simulation model for clastic sediments, which was developed from SIMSAFADIM, a previous 3D carbonate sedimentation model. The new extended model, SIMSAFADIM-CLASTIC, simulates processes of autochthonous marine carbonate production and accumulation, together with clastic transport and sedimentation in three dimensions of both carbonate and terrigenous sediments. Other models and modelling strategies may also provide realistic and efficient tools for prediction of stratigraphic architecture and facies distribution of sedimentary deposits. However, SIMSAFADIM-CLASTIC becomes an innovative model that attempts to simulate different sediment types using a process-based approach, therefore being a useful tool for 3D prediction of stratigraphic architecture and facies distribution in sedimentary basins. This model is applied to the neogene Vallès-Penedès half-graben (western Mediterranean, NE Spain) to show the capacity of the program when applied to a realistic geologic situation involving interactions between terrigenous clastics and carbonate sediments.

There and back again? Combining habitat suitability modelling and connectivity analyses to assess a potential return of the otter to Switzerland

After a steady decline in the early 20th century, several terrestrial carnivore species have recently recovered in Western Europe, either through reintroductions or natural recolonization. Because of the large space requirements of these species and potential conflicts with human activities, ensuring their recovery requires the implementation of conservation and management measures that address the environmental, landscape and social dimensions of the problem. Few examples exist of such integrated management. Taking the case of the otter (Lutra lutra) in Switzerland, we propose a multi-step approach that allows to (1) identify areas with potentially suitable habitat, (2) evaluate their connectivity, (3) verify the potentiality of the species recolonization from populations in neighbouring countries. We showed that even though suitable habitat is available for the species and the level of structural connectivity within Switzerland is satisfactory, the level of connectivity with neighbouring populations is crucial to prioritize strategies that favour the species recovery in the field. This research is the first example integrating habitat suitability and connectivity assessment at different scales with other factors in a multi-step assessment for species recovery.

The Reliability of Pre-travel History to Decide on Appropriate Counseling and Vaccinations: A Prospective Study.

BACKGROUND: Although medical and travel plans gathered from pre-travel interviews are used to decide the provision of specific pre-travel health advice and vaccinations, there has been no evaluation of the relevance of this strategy. In a prospective study, we assessed the agreement between pre-travel plans and post-travel history and the effect on advice regarding the administration of vaccines and recommendations for malaria prevention. METHODS: We included prospectively all consenting adults who had not planned an organized tour. Pre- and post-travel information included questions on destination, itineraries, departure and return dates, access to bottled water, plan of bicycle ride, stays in a rural zone, and close contact with animals. The outcomes measured included: agreement between pre- and post-travel itineraries and activities; and the effect of these differences on pre-travel health recommendations, had the traveler gone to the actual versus intended destinations for actual versus intended duration and activities. RESULTS: Three hundred and sixty-five travelers were included in the survey, where 188 (52%) were males (median age 38 years). In 81(23%) travelers, there was no difference between pre- and post-travel history. Disagreement between pre- and post-travel history were the highest for stays in rural zones or with local people (66% of travelers), close contact with animals (33%), and bicycle riding (21%). According to post-travel history, 125 (35%) travelers would have needed rabies vaccine and 9 (3%) typhoid fever vaccine. Potential overprovision of vaccine was found in <2% of travelers. A change in the malaria prescription would have been recommended in 18 (5%) travelers. CONCLUSIONS: Pre-travel history does not adequately reflect what travelers do. However, difference between recommendations for the actual versus intended travel plans was only clinically significant for the need for rabies vaccine. Particular attention during pre-travel health counseling should focus on the risk of rabies, the need to avoid close contact with animals and to seek care for post-exposure prophylaxis following an animal bite.

Statistics of avalanches in martensitic transformations, II. Modelling

Using a scaling assumption, we propose a phenomenological model aimed to describe the joint probability distribution of two magnitudes A and T characterizing the spatial and temporal scales of a set of avalanches. The model also describes the correlation function of a sequence of such avalanches. As an example we study the joint distribution of amplitudes and durations of the acoustic emission signals observed in martensitic transformations [Vives et al., preceding paper, Phys. Rev. B 52, 12 644 (1995)].