Future of the EU27: What to expect from this summer’s period of reflection. CEPS Commentary, 18 July 2016

As the UK’s brutal political fallout of Brexit continues to astound the world, leaders in the other member states are wrestling with the EU’s new reality. They deemed it too early to draw conclusions at the June European Council. Instead, the heads of state and government declared a period of political reflection on the future of an EU with 27 member states. They will meet again informally on September 16th in Bratislava. The question is: What impetus can they give to reforms to remain united and deal with the challenges of the 21st century?

The Principle of Common Concern and Climate Change

Effective policies combating global warming and incentivising reduction of greenhouse gases face fundamental collective action problems. States defending short term interests avoid international commitments and seek to benefit from measures combating global warming taken elsewhere. The paper explores the potential of Common Concern as an emerging principle of international law, in particular international environmental law, in addressing collective action problems and the global commons. It expounds the contours of the principle, its relationship to common heritage of mankind, to shared and differentiated responsibility and to public goods. It explores its potential to provide the foundations not only for international cooperation, but also to justify, and delimitate at the same time, unilateral action at home and deploying extraterritorial effects in addressing the challenges of global warming and climate change mitigation. As unilateral measures mainly translate into measures of trade policy, the principle of Common Concern is inherently linked and limited by existing legal disciplines in particular of the law of the World Trade Organization.

Higher order elicitability and Osband’s principle

A statistical functional, such as the mean or the median, is called elicitable if there is a scoring function or loss function such that the correct forecast of the functional is the unique minimizer of the expected score. Such scoring functions are called strictly consistent for the functional. The elicitability of a functional opens the possibility to compare competing forecasts and to rank them in terms of their realized scores. In this paper, we explore the notion of elicitability for multi-dimensional functionals and give both necessary and sufficient conditions for strictly consistent scoring functions. We cover the case of functionals with elicitable components, but we also show that one-dimensional functionals that are not elicitable can be a component of a higher order elicitable functional. In the case of the variance, this is a known result. However, an important result of this paper is that spectral risk measures with a spectral measure with finite support are jointly elicitable if one adds the “correct” quantiles. A direct consequence of applied interest is that the pair (Value at Risk, Expected Shortfall) is jointly elicitable under mild conditions that are usually fulfilled in risk management applications.

(Table T3) Vitrinite reflection of samples obtained from ODP Leg 180 sites

Seventy-one samples from Ocean Drilling Program Leg 180 sites were analyzed for vitrinite reflectance and organic type. The objective was to define maximum paleotemperatures across the western Woodlark Basin as a function of depth. The organic matter is of early Pliocene to Holocene age and was recovered from drilled depths of 4.5 to 851.3 meters below seafloor. Organic matter is generally restricted to woody fragments within the sediment, although in a number of fine-grained samples, organic matter is dispersed throughout the sample. Virtually all samples contain vitrinite, part of which may be derived from drifted logs. One sample was found to be barren of organic matter, and two contain only fusinite and semifusinite. Variation of vitrinite reflectance is not systematic with either depth or location, and it appears that formation temperatures have been insufficient to cause an increase in vitrinite reflectance levels. Textural variations within the vitrinite show better correlation with depth. Samples of hypautochthonous peats represent either a terrestrial phase of sedimentation or large peat intraclasts within the section, possibly produced by forest fires in the source areas of the organic matter. The vitrinite and peat-derived samples appear to come from eucalyptus forest settings away from the coastline. Liptinite is not abundant in most of the samples (excluding suberinite associated with woody tissues). Marine liptinite is rare to absent, although many of the samples contain abundant foraminiferal tests. Pyrite is abundant in many of the wood fragments, and some pyritization of woody tissues has taken place.

Sand resources of southern Lake Erie, Conneaut to Toledo, Ohio : a seismic reflection and vibracore study /

"November 1980."

Sight-singing from the established notation in a series of lessons and exercises on the tonic principle /

Includes index.

Reflection and transmission characteristics of porous rubble-mound breakwaters /

"March 1976."

The true principle of education : the law of nature, the law of mental development : a new view of the end of juvenile culture, especially as regards the female mind /

Mode of access: Internet.

Regional geology of the southern Lake Erie (Ohio) bottom : a seismic reflection and vibracore study /

"December 1982."

Unity in variety, as deduced from the vegetable kingdom; being an attempt at developing that oneness which is discoverable in the habits, mode of growth, and principle of construction of all plants.

Mode of access: Internet.

The pioneers of empire : being a vindication of the principle and a short sketch of the history of chartered companies, with especial reference to the British South Africa Company /

Mode of access: Internet.

Reflection characteristics of screen wave absorbers : hydraulic model investigation /

Bibliography: p. 42.