Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution. Methods Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk–outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990–2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol. Findings All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8–58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1–43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5–89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa. Interpretation Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.

The ultimate edge: The case for planning media for sustaining space communities

Governments and intergovernmental organisations have long recognised that space communities – the ultimate ‘settlements at the edge’ – will exist one day and have based their first plans for these on another region ‘at the edge’, the Antarctic. United States President Eisenhower proposed to the United Nations in 1960 that the principles of the Antarctic Treaty be applied to outer space and celestial bodies (State Department, n.d.). Three years later the UN adopted the Declaration of Legal Principles Governing the Activities of States in the Exploration and Use of Outer Space and in 1967 that became the Outer Space Treaty. According to the UN Office for Outer Space Affairs, ‘the Treaty was opened for signature by the three depository Governments (the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom and the United States of America) in January 1967, and it entered into force in October 1967’ (Office for Outer Space Affairs, n.d). The status of the treaty (at time of writing) was 89 signatories and 102 parties (Office for Disarmament Affairs, n.d.). Other related instruments include the Rescue Agreement, the Liability Convention, the Registration Convention and the Moon Agreement (Office for Outer Space Affairs, n.d.-a). Jumping to the present, a newsagency reported in July 2014 (Reuters, 2014) that the British Government had shortlisted eight aerodromes in its search for a potential base for the UK’s first spaceplane flights which Ministers want to happen by 2018 (UK Space Agency, 2014). The United States already has a spaceport, in New Mexico (Cokley, Rankin, Heinrich, & McAuliffe, 2013)...

Risk analysis of prostate cancer in PRACTICAL, a multinational consortium, using 25 known prostate cancer susceptibility loci

Background Genome-wide association studies have identified multiple genetic variants associated with prostate cancer risk which explain a substantial proportion of familial relative risk. These variants can be used to stratify individuals by their risk of prostate cancer. Methods We genotyped 25 prostate cancer susceptibility loci in 40,414 individuals and derived a polygenic risk score (PRS).We estimated empirical odds ratios (OR) for prostate cancer associated with different risk strata defined by PRS and derived agespecific absolute risks of developing prostate cancer by PRS stratum and family history. Results The prostate cancer risk for men in the top 1% of the PRS distribution was 30.6 (95% CI, 16.4-57.3) fold compared with men in the bottom 1%, and 4.2 (95% CI, 3.2-5.5) fold compared with the median risk. The absolute risk of prostate cancer by age of 85 years was 65.8% for a man with family history in the top 1% of the PRS distribution, compared with 3.7% for a man in the bottom 1%. The PRS was only weakly correlated with serum PSA level (correlation = 0.09). Conclusions Risk profiling can identify men at substantially increased or reduced risk of prostate cancer. The effect size, measured by OR per unit PRS, was higher in men at younger ages and in men with family history of prostate cancer. Incorporating additional newly identified loci into a PRS should improve the predictive value of risk profiles. Impact:We demonstrate that the risk profiling based on SNPs can identify men at substantially increased or reduced risk that could have useful implications for targeted prevention and screening programs.

Vankina valkoisten : Oulun vankileiri 1918

Suomen sisällissodassa keväällä vuonna 1918 syntyi useita vankileirejä, jotka oli tarkoitettu valkoisten vangitsemia punaisia varten. Yksi vankileireistä sijaitsi Oulun Raatinsaaressa. Tässä tutkimuksessa olen tarkastellut Oulun vankileirin vankeja, vartijoita ja leirin oloja sekä valtiorikosoikeuden toimintaa ja leirin kuolleisuutta. Oulun vankileiri toimi Valloitettujen alueiden turvaamisosastoon kuuluneen sotavankilaitoksen alaisuudessa. Vankileiri oli tarkoitettu lähinnä Oulun ja Lapin läänin punavankeja varten. Myös asevelvollisuuskutsuntoja vältelleitä ja asevelvollisuudesta kieltäytyneitä oli vangittujen joukossa. Vankien määrä oli suurimmillaan hieman yli 800. Vangit kuuluivat pääsääntöisesti työväenluokkaan. Vangittuina oli myös naisia, joista suurin osa oli pidätetty venäläisten kasarmeilta. Venäläisiä sotilaita, joita oli noin 1000, pidettiin vangittuina omilla kasarmeillaan, ennen kuin heidät kotiutettiin toukokuun lopussa. Vartijoina toimivat aluksi Oulun ja lähikuntien suojeluskuntajoukot ja toukokuun lopusta lähtien asevelvollisuusjoukot. Erityisesti asevelvollisjoukkoja pidettiin vartiointitehtävään sopimattomina. Sotilaat suhtautuivat tehtäviinsä välinpitämättömästi ja vankeihin myötämielisesti. Heistä suurin osa oli kotoisin samoilta paikkakunnilta, mistä punavangitkin ja he kuuluivat suurimmalta osaltaan myös työväenluokkaan. Asevelvollisjoukot olivat myös ylityöllistettyjä ja sotilaskuri oli olematonta, joten ei ollut ihme, että heinäkuun alussa useat asevelvollissotilaat karkasivat riveistä. Vangit asuivat leirillä ahtaasti ja saivat vain niukasti ruokaa. Leirillä vankeja hoitivat lääkäri ja kaksi sairaanhoitajaa. Sairaanhoito oli hankalaa, koska sairastuneita ja heikkoja vankeja oli paljon. Vankien hengellisestä huollosta oli vastuussa kasvatusosasto, jonka johdossa oli pappi apunaan kaksi kasvatusapulaista. Kesäkuun aikana Oulussa toimintansa aloitti kaksi valtiorikosoikeuden osastoa, jotka langettivat tuomioita samanlaisen linjan mukaisesti kuin muuallakin maassa. Punaisena lankana näyttää olleen työväenliikkeen poliittinen nujertaminen. Kuolleisuuden suhteelliseen alhaisuuteen oli osasyynä se, että vartijat eivät olleet kiinnostuneita tehtäviään kohtaan. He eivät estäneet yhteydenpitoa vankien ja heidän omaistensa välillä. Vartijat eivät myöskään syyllistyneet vankileiriterroriin, vaan suhtautuivat vankeja kohtaan pääsääntöisesti maltillisesti. Vangeilla oli mahdollisuuksia ulkopuoliseen ruoansaantiin omaisten kautta ja työskennellessään leirin ulkopuolella eri työtehtävissä. Vankeja käytettiinkin vankileirin ulkopuolisiin työtehtäviin paljon. Koska työnantajat oli velvoitettu kustantamaan työssäkäyvien vankien ruoan, he saivat lisäravintoa ohi vankileiriorganisaation. Siten vangit olivat tarpeeksi vastustuskykyisiä tarttuvia tauteja kohtaan. Oulun vankileirissä kuolleisuus jäikin suhteellisen alhaiseksi hieman alle kuuteen prosenttiin. Avainsanat: Suomi 1918 . vankileirit . sisällissota - sotavangit

Suppression of populations of Australian sheep blowfly, Lucilia cuprina (Wiedemann) (Diptera: Calliphoridae), with a novel blowfly trap

The Australian sheep blowfly, Lucilia cuprina initiates more than 85% of fly strikes on sheep in Australia with an estimated average annual cost of A$280 million to the Australian wool industry. LuciTrap® is a commercially available, selective trap for L. cuprina consisting of a plastic bucket with multiple fly entry cones and a synthetic attractant. The impact of LuciTrap on populations of L. cuprina on sheep properties in five Australian states was evaluated by comparing L. cuprina populations on paired properties with and without LuciTraps over seasons when significant fly populations could be expected. Twenty-four comparisons (trials) were conducted over four years. During times of ‘higher fly density’ (when the 48 h geometric mean of trap catches on the control property was greater than five L. cuprina), the overall geometric mean trap catches for control and trapped properties differed significantly (P<0.001) with mean trap catches of 19.4 and 7.74 L. cuprina respectively. The selectivity of the LuciTrap was confirmed with 59% of all trapped flies being L. cuprina. Chrysomya spp. and Calliphora spp. constituted 9.3% and 1.1% of the catches with a variety of other flies (mainly Sarcophagidae and Muscidae) providing the remainder (31%). L. sericata was only trapped in Tasmania and made up 7.7% of the Lucilia spp. catch in this State. Seventy-two percent of the trapped L. cuprina were female. The deployment of LuciTrap on sheep properties at one trap per 100 sheep from the beginning of the anticipated fly season suppressed the populations of L. cuprina by 60% compared to matched control properties. The LuciTrap is a selective and easy to use fly trap and constitutes an effective, non-insecticidal tool for use in integrated management programs for L. cuprina.

Konstruktiivisen linjakkuuden perusteita etsimässä : Systemaattinen analyysi John Biggsin esittämistä yliopisto-opetuksen lähtökohdista

The aim of this study is to explore by systematic textual analysis the crucial conceptions of constructive alignment and to reconstruct the concept of constructive alignment and examine the relation between conceptual relationships in John Biggs’s texts. In this study, I have also analyzed the presuppositions of the concept of constructive alignment and its possible implications. The research material includes Biggs’s (1996b; 2003) article entitled Enhancing Teaching through Constructive Alignment and book entitled Teaching for Quality Learning at University. The primary purpose of the systematic textual analysis is to reconstruct concepts and gain access to a new or more profound understanding of the concepts. The main purpose of the constructive alignment is to design a teaching system that supports and encourages students to adopt a deep approach learning. At the center of the constructive alignment are two concepts: constructivism in learning and alignment in teaching. A tension was detected between these concepts. Biggs assumes that students’ learning activities are primed by the teaching. Because of this it is not important what the teacher does. At the same time he emphasizes that teaching interacts with learning. The teacher’s task is to support student’s appropriate learning activities. On the basis of the analysis, I conclude these conceptions are not mutually exclusive. Interaction between teaching and learning has an effect on student’s learning activities. The most essential benefit of the model of constructive alignment is that Biggs brings together and considers teaching at the same level with learning. A weakness of Biggs’s model relates to the theoretical basis and positions of the concept of constructive alignment. There are some conflicts between conceptions of epistemology in Biggs’s texts. In addition, Biggs writes about constructivism also as conceptions of epistemology, but doesn’t consider implications of that position or what follows or doesn’t follow from that commitment. On the basis of the analysis, I suggest that constructivism refers in Biggs’s texts rather to constructivism in learning than philosophical constructivism. In light of this study, constructive alignment doesn´t lead to philosophical constructivism. That’s why constructive alignment stays out of idealism. Biggs’s way of thinking about teachers possibility to confronting students’ misconceptions and evaluate and assess students’ constructions support a realist purpose in terms of philosophical stance. Realism does not drift toward general problems of relativism, like lack of criteria for assessing or evaluate these constructions.

Meeting of the Joint Distribution Committee and the Executive Committee of the American Jewish Relief Committee 1918 in New York

Reproduction of a painting of a meeting of the Joint Distribution Committee (representing the American Jewish Relief Committee, the Central Rellief Committee and the People's Relief Committee) and the Executive Committee of the American Jewish Relief Committee, with chairman Felix Warburg, secretary Albert Lucas, stenographer Mrs. F. Friedman, executive director Boris Bogen, comptroller Harriet Lowenstein, associate treasurer Paul Baerwald and treasurer Arthur Lehman; Office of Mr. Felix M. Warburg, 52 William Street, New York

John and Ursula Schlosstein nee Gottschalk with their infant son Ralph. portraits family

Digital Image

John Ettinger Collection 1941-1946

John Ettinger, 1987.

John and Ursula Schlosstein nee Gottschalk with their infant son Ralph. portraits family

Digital Image

Memoirs : Heida Hermanns Holde /

The author's mother Alice Goldschmidt was a gifted piano player, who studied with Carl Maria Breithaupt and became his most talented student. Childhood recollections. Early musical awakening. Outbreak of World War One. Recollections of air raids and scarceness of food. Inflation and political instability in post-war Germany. Piano lessons by her mother from an early age. Heida made her debut at age fourteen with the Wiesbaden Symphony under the conductor Carl Schuricht, who became a close mentor and friend. Close relationship to her mother, who had a great influence on her professional career. Heida had a number of outstanding teachers, among them Artur Schnabel, Karl Leimer and Egon Petri. Heida was accepted as a student of Petri at the "Hochschule fuer Musik" in Berlin, where she studied between 1922-1925. Salon at her aunt's house with guests such as the playwright Georg Kaiser and Siegfried Wagner. Her sister Elsie received her Ph.D. in economics and moved to Berlin as well. Heida graduated from the "Hochschule" in 1925. Soon after she won an international piano competition in Berlin. Engagements with various conductors such as Max Fiedler and Otto Klemperer. Private lessons with Arthur Schnabel and Carl Friedberg, the co-founder of Juilliard. Due to occasional experiences of antisemitism during her music career Heida decided to change her name from Goldschmidt to Hermanns. Position at the "Hoch Conservatory" in Frankfurt. Encounter with the music critic Artur Holde, Heida's future-husband. Engagement and wedding in 1932. Move to Berlin.

Comparing Notes 1918-1991

Memoir by Pierre Ferrand, written in 1992, including recollections of his meeting with Alfred Doeblin in the freight car of a military transport leaving occuppied Paris in 1940 for Cahors, information on Ferrand's family which Ferrand believes is portrayed in Doeblin's "Schicksalsreise," critical comments on Doeblin's work and character, and information on Ferrand's father's work as Advisor on German Affairs for the French government and on the family's emigration to the United States; newspaper clipping of 1991 with letter to the editor on Frederick the Great by Pierre Ferrand.

Aus meinem Leben 1899-1918

The memoir was written between 1899 and 1918. Family history going back to the early 18th century. Recollection of the author's childhood in Hildesheim. Moritz was the youngest child of Joseph and Bena Guedemann. Early death of his father in 1847. Moritz attended the Jewish elementary school prior to the age of five. In 1843 he was enrolled in the episcopal "Josephinum Gymnasium", where he was the only Jewish student in the entire school. He had friendly relationships with students and teachers and was not confronted with antisemitism during his school years. Moritz Guedemann graduated in 1853 and enrolled in the newly established Jewish Theological Seminary in Breslau. Description of teachers and colleagues in the seminary. Doctorate in 1858 and continuation of rabbinic studies. Occasional invitation to preach at the high holidays in Berlin, where Moritz got acquainted with the famous rabbi Dr. Michael Sachs. Position as a rabbi in Magdeburg in 1862. Small publications of studies in Jewish history. Engagement with Fanny Spiegel. In 1863 Moritz and Fanny Guedemann got married. Offer to succeed rabbi Michael Sachs in Berlin. Division and intrigues in the Jewish community and withdrawing from the position. Invitation to give a sermon in Vienna. In 1866 Moritz Guedemann was nominated to succeed rabbi Mannheimer at the Leopoldstadt synagogue in Vienna. Austro-Prussian war and defeat of Austria in Koeniggraetz. Initial difficulties and cultural differences. Criticism toward his orthodox conduct in the Vienna Jewish press ("Neuzeit"). Cultural life in Vienna. Welfare institutions and philanthropists. Difference within the Jewish community. Crash of the stock exchange and rise of antisemitism. Publication of sermons and studies in Jewish history. In 1891 Max Guedemann became chief rabbi of Vienna. Speeches against antisemitism and blood libel trials. He was awarded with the title "Ritter" of the Kaiser Franz Joseph order for these achievements. Death of his wife in