Local Storage Meets Local Demand: A Technical Solution to Future Power Distribution System

Future power systems are expected to integrate large-scale stochastic and intermittent generation and load due to reduced use of fossil fuel resources, including renewable energy sources (RES) and electric vehicles (EV). Inclusion of such resources poses challenges for the dynamic stability of synchronous transmission and distribution networks, not least in terms of generation where system inertia may not be wholly governed by large-scale generation but displaced by small-scale and localised generation. Energy storage systems (ESS) can limit the impact of dispersed and distributed generation by offering supporting reserve while accommodating large-scale EV connection; the latter (load) also participating in storage provision. In this paper, a local energy storage system (LESS) is proposed. The structure, requirement and optimal sizing of the LESS are discussed. Three operating modes are detailed, including: 1) storage pack management; 2) normal operation; and 3) contingency operation. The proposed LESS scheme is evaluated using simulation studies based on data obtained from the Northern Ireland regional and residential network.

A probabilistic approach to the estimation of regional photovoltaic power generation using meteorological data

In Germany the upscaling algorithm is currently the standard approach for evaluating the PV power produced in a region. This method involves spatially interpolating the normalized power of a set of reference PV plants to estimate the power production by another set of unknown plants. As little information on the performances of this method could be found in the literature, the first goal of this thesis is to conduct an analysis of the uncertainty associated to this method. It was found that this method can lead to large errors when the set of reference plants has different characteristics or weather conditions than the set of unknown plants and when the set of reference plants is small. Based on these preliminary findings, an alternative method is proposed for calculating the aggregate power production of a set of PV plants. A probabilistic approach has been chosen by which a power production is calculated at each PV plant from corresponding weather data. The probabilistic approach consists of evaluating the power for each frequently occurring value of the parameters and estimating the most probable value by averaging these power values weighted by their frequency of occurrence. Most frequent parameter sets (e.g. module azimuth and tilt angle) and their frequency of occurrence have been assessed on the basis of a statistical analysis of parameters of approx. 35 000 PV plants. It has been found that the plant parameters are statistically dependent on the size and location of the PV plants. Accordingly, separate statistical values have been assessed for 14 classes of nominal capacity and 95 regions in Germany (two-digit zip-code areas). The performances of the upscaling and probabilistic approaches have been compared on the basis of 15 min power measurements from 715 PV plants provided by the German distribution system operator LEW Verteilnetz. It was found that the error of the probabilistic method is smaller than that of the upscaling method when the number of reference plants is sufficiently large (>100 reference plants in the case study considered in this chapter). When the number of reference plants is limited (<50 reference plants for the considered case study), it was found that the proposed approach provides a noticeable gain in accuracy with respect to the upscaling method.

Estimates of global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2015 : the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background Timely assessment of the burden of HIV/AIDS is essential for policy setting and programme evaluation. In this report from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we provide national estimates of levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART), and mortality for 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. Methods For countries without high-quality vital registration data, we estimated prevalence and incidence with data from antenatal care clinics and population-based seroprevalence surveys, and with assumptions by age and sex on initial CD4 distribution at infection, CD4 progression rates (probability of progression from higher to lower CD4 cell-count category), on and off antiretroviral therapy (ART) mortality, and mortality from all other causes. Our estimation strategy links the GBD 2015 assessment of all-cause mortality and estimation of incidence and prevalence so that for each draw from the uncertainty distribution all assumptions used in each step are internally consistent. We estimated incidence, prevalence, and death with GBD versions of the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) and Spectrum software originally developed by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS). We used an open-source version of EPP and recoded Spectrum for speed, and used updated assumptions from systematic reviews of the literature and GBD demographic data. For countries with high-quality vital registration data, we developed the cohort incidence bias adjustment model to estimate HIV incidence and prevalence largely from the number of deaths caused by HIV recorded in cause-of-death statistics. We corrected these statistics for garbage coding and HIV misclassifi cation. Findings Global HIV incidence reached its peak in 1997, at 3·3 million new infections (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1–3·4 million). Annual incidence has stayed relatively constant at about 2·6 million per year (range 2·5–2·8 million) since 2005, after a period of fast decline between 1997 and 2005. The number of people living with HIV/AIDS has been steadily increasing and reached 38·8 million (95% UI 37·6–40·4 million) in 2015. At the same time, HIV/AIDS mortality has been declining at a steady pace, from a peak of 1·8 million deaths (95% UI 1·7–1·9 million) in 2005, to 1·2 million deaths (1·1–1·3 million) in 2015. We recorded substantial heterogeneity in the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS across countries. Although many countries have experienced decreases in HIV/AIDS mortality and in annual new infections, other countries have had slowdowns or increases in rates of change in annual new infections. Interpretation Scale-up of ART and prevention of mother-to-child transmission has been one of the great successes of global health in the past two decades. However, in the past decade, progress in reducing new infections has been slow, development assistance for health devoted to HIV has stagnated, and resources for health in low-income countries have grown slowly. Achievement of the new ambitious goals for HIV enshrined in Sustainable Development Goal 3 and the 90-90-90 UNAIDS targets will be challenging, and will need continued eff orts from governments and international agencies in the next 15 years to end AIDS by 2030.

Lifetime and distribution of ozone and related pollutants in the eastern United States

Most major cities in the eastern United States have air quality deemed unhealthy by the EPA under a set of regulations known as the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS). The worst air quality in Maryland is measured in Edgewood, MD, a small community located along the Chesapeake Bay and generally downwind of Baltimore during hot, summertime days. Direct measurements and numerical simulations were used to investigate how meteorology and chemistry conspire to create adverse levels of photochemical smog especially at this coastal location. Ozone (O3) and oxidized reactive nitrogen (NOy), a family of ozone precursors, were measured over the Chesapeake Bay during a ten day experiment in July 2011 to better understand the formation of ozone over the Bay and its impact on coastal communities such as Edgewood. Ozone over the Bay during the afternoon was 10% to 20% higher than the closest upwind ground sites. A combination of complex boundary layer dynamics, deposition rates, and unaccounted marine emissions play an integral role in the regional maximum of ozone over the Bay. The CAMx regional air quality model was assessed and enhanced through comparison with data from NASA’s 2011 DISCOVER-AQ field campaign. Comparisons show a model overestimate of NOy by +86.2% and a model underestimate of formaldehyde (HCHO) by –28.3%. I present a revised model framework that better captures these observations and the response of ozone to reductions of precursor emissions. Incremental controls on electricity generating stations will produce greater benefits for surface ozone while additional controls on mobile sources may yield less benefit because cars emit less pollution than expected. Model results also indicate that as ozone concentrations improve with decreasing anthropogenic emissions, the photochemical lifetime of tropospheric ozone increases. The lifetime of ozone lengthens because the two primary gas-phase sinks for odd oxygen (Ox ≈ NO2 + O3) – attack by hydroperoxyl radicals (HO2) on ozone and formation of nitrate – weaken with decreasing pollutant emissions. This unintended consequence of air quality regulation causes pollutants to persist longer in the atmosphere, and indicates that pollutant transport between states and countries will likely play a greater role in the future.

Revisão do plano de segurança da água do sistema regional do Carvoeiro

Os Planos de Segurança da Água surgem com a necessidade de aumentar a segurança da água de abastecimento, superando a monitorização de conformidade de “fim de linha”, permitindo aumentar a confiança do consumidor na qualidade da água que lhe é fornecida. Esta nova abordagem recorre a uma metodologia de gestão baseada na identificação e no controlo de riscos em pontos críticos de um sistema de abastecimento, em complemento do controlo realizado através da monitorização da conformidade da água entregue aos consumidores. O Plano de Segurança da Água (PSA) encontra-se implementado no Sistema Regional do Carvoeiro (SRC) desde o ano de 2009. O SRC é um sistema de abastecimento de água em alta, sendo constituído por conjunto de infraestruturas de captação, tratamento, transporte e armazenamento de água desde a sua origem, localizada no rio Vouga, em Carvoeiro, até aos municípios integrados na Associação de Municípios do Carvoeiro-Vouga. Atendendo à obra de expansão do SRC, tornou-se imperativo efetuar uma revisão ao PSA, sendo este o objetivo primordial do trabalho de estágio desenvolvido na empresa Águas do Vouga S.A, concessionária responsável pela gestão do SRC. Para a prossecução deste objetivo, o trabalho desenvolvido envolveu os seguintes passos metodológicos: identificação das operações aplicadas no SRC; identificação de perigos e eventos perigosos em todos os órgãos constituintes do sistema; avaliação de riscos; identificação de pontos críticos de controlo; identificação de pontos de monitorização e medidas preventivas; elaboração do plano de monitorização, incluindo, procedimentos de controlo operacional em condições normais de funcionamento e em caso de desvio; validação deste plano. Deste trabalho resultou a identificação de 166 eventos perigosos, 17 tipologias de perigos, 3 pontos de controlo crítico e 17 pontos de monitorização. Os pontos de controlo crítico foram identificados nos processos de tratamento da ETA do Carvoeiro. O primeiro foi localizado na etapa de filtração com areia, antracite e zeólitos correspondendo aos perigos com metais (Fe e Mn), outros compostos químicos perigosos, partículas, turvação, matéria orgânica e alumínio. O segundo ponto foi identificado na etapa de filtração com filtros de carvão ativado granular relativo ao aparecimento de sabor e cianotoxinas. O terceiro ponto de controlo crítico foi encontrado na etapa de desinfeção referente aos microrganismos patogénicos. Os pontos de monitorização foram localizados ao longo do sistema em situações onde não se dispõem de nenhuma medida de controlo para eliminar o perigo e antes e após os pontos de controlo crítico. O plano de monitorização foi desenvolvido para estes pontos, embora os limites e procedimentos definidos devam ser alvo de revisão após a conclusão da obra de expansão do sistema. A validação da revisão do plano foi iniciada, mas cingiu-se apenas na avaliação preliminar de riscos, prévia ao início de operação da ETA do Carvoeiro. Para além da revisão deste plano, foram realizadas outras tarefas, nomeadamente uma análise à qualidade da água fornecida e distribuída pelo sistema, a elaboração do plano PCQA para o ano de 2016, a configuração da plataforma de gestão operacional NAVIATM e a revisão do Manual de Gestão da Águas do Vouga relativo ao processo de qualidade na captação, tratamento e distribuição e ao processo de qualidade na gestão do PSA.

Competition and complementarity between seaports and hinterlands for locating distribution activities.

A locational duality in port-related distribution activities is emerging. In some regions, distribution activities have moved from ports to inland locations, driven in part by ‘push factors’ such as port congestion and scarcity of land for container handling activities, or by ‘pull factors’ such as the growth of intermodal corridors, the influence of inland terminals and the changing economic geography in the hinterland. In other regions, ports retain their traditional role as centres of distribution and warehousing activity. More recently, the focus on ‘port-centric logistics’ is indicative that some regions are refocusing on ports as potential locations for large distribution centres. The result has been a growing competition, but also complementarity, between ports and inland locations concerning the location of distribution activities, driven not only by market forces but also by institutional settings and the governance relations between the actors involved. This report provides an overview of regional differences across the world in order to develop a framework identifying for which type of distribution activities ports are suitable locations and which activities are best suited to the hinterland, taking into account geographical, economic and logistics settings. Empirical evidence is derived from a variety of regions in Europe, North America, South America, Southern Africa and Asia.

REGIONAL CONVERGENCE AND R&D INVESTMENT: APPLIED INVESTIGATION IN PORTUGAL

R&D investments are seen has having an enormous potential impact on the competitive position of regions and perhaps on regional convergence (or divergence) too. The aim of the paper is to study both the localization of R&D investments and regional income distribution among the NUTs 3 regions of Portugal to conclude if these variables are related or not. To study the spatial convergence (approximation) of per capita income (GDPpc) and R&D investments in the regions of Portugal, we use a standard methodology of spatial econometrics. We conclude that regions with higher GDPpc are not the same with the highest concentration of R&D investments, with the exception of the northern coastline. The R&D investments are geographically linked to the network of higher education institutions, especially in the interior regions of the country. The northern regions reveal more dynamic in terms of R&D, which apparently is not felt in the population's standard of living measured by GDPpc.

Distribution and at-sea activity of a nocturnal seabird, the Bulwer's petrel Bulweria bulwerii, during the incubation period

Bulwer'spetrelsarenocturnalseabirdsthatmostlypreyonmesopelagicfauna.Asaerialforagersand shallowdivers,theirfeedingopportunitiesarelimitedbynear-surfaceavailabilityoftheirprey,whichis highlyvariablebothtemporally(reflectingdiurnalandlunarcycles)andspatially.Herewestudiedhow Bulwer'spetrelscopewiththeseconstraintsbyanalysingtheirat-seadistributionandactivityduringthe incubationperiod.Wetrackedthemovementsof20birdsfromSelvagemGrande(NEAtlantic)duringa completelunarcycle,andrecorded30foragingtripsthatlasted11daysonaverage.Birdswereboth distributedaroundthecolonyandinwatersclosetotheAzoreanarchipelago(mid-Atlantic)located 1700kmaway,andweresignificantlymoreactiveatnight(especiallyjustaftersunsetandbeforesunrise), whenmesopelagicfaunaisalsoclosertotheseasurfaceduetotheirdielverticalmigrations.Bulwer's petrelsspentsignificantlymoretime flyingduringmoonlight,althoughtheeffectofthemoonwasrela- tivelyweak(ca.10–15%differencebetweenmoonlitanddarkperiodsofthenight),andnotobviouswhen birdswereforaginginmid-Atlanticwaters,whichwerealsotargetedmoreoftenduringfull-moon.These resultsrevealkeyadaptationsoftheBulwer'spetreltothehighlydynamicecologyofitsmesopelagicprey.

Using niche modelling of indicator species to predict the distribution of xerophitic shrub dune communities in South-Western Portugal

Inland sand dune systems are amongst the most threatened habitat types of Europe. Affected by severe conditions, these habitats present distinct community compositions, which makes them excellent for studying possible interactions among their integrating species and the environment. We focus on understanding the distribution and cooccurrence of the species from dune plant assemblages as a key step for the adequate protection of these habitats. Using data from an extensive survey we identified the shrub species that could be considered indicators of the different xerophytic scrub dune communities in South West Portugal. Then, we modelled the responses of these species to the environmental conditions using Ecological Niche Factor Analysis. We present some preliminary results elucidating whether using species distribution models of indicator species at a regional scale is a valid approach to predict the distribution of the different types of communities inhabiting these endangered habitats.

Can we use niche models of indicator species to predict the distribution of endangered communities?

European-wide conservation policies are based on the identification of priority habitats. However, research on conservation biogeography often relies on the results and projections of species distribution models to assess species' vulnerability to global change. We assess whether the distribution and structure of threatened communities can be predicted by the suitability of the environmental conditions for their indicator species. We present some preliminary results elucidating if using species distribution models of indicator species at a regional scale is a valid approach to predict these endangered communities. Dune plant assemblages, affected by severe conditions, are excellent models for studying possible interactions among their integrating species and the environment. We use data from an extensive survey of xerophytic inland sand dune scrub communities from Portugal, one of the most threatened habitat types of Europe. We identify indicator shrub species of different types of communities, model their geographical response to the environment, and evaluate whether the output of these niche models are able to predict the distribution of each type of community in a different region.

Impacts of climate change and species distribution modelling: future scenarios to endangered species in South Brazil.

Earth climate has changed significantly in the last century and the different models indicate that it will continue to change over the next decades, even if the emission of greenhouse gases stop immediately. These changes have impact on different plant populations, as well as in the actual distribution of several species. As plants, in general, have a smaller capacity of dispersion compared with the animals it is likely that they will suffer the impacts of the climate change more intensively.

Comparison of body composition and body fat distribution of patients following a cardiac rehabilitation program and sedentary patients

O objectivo desta investigação foi analisar a composição corporal e a distribuição de gordura corporal de sujeitos com doença das artérias coronárias (DAC) envolvidos num programa estruturado de reabilitação cardíaca (PRC) e sujeitos com DAC que não participam em qualquer PRC. População e métodos: A amostra foi constituída por 62 sujeitos do sexo masculino, caucasianos, com DAC diagnosticada, oriundos de cada um de dois grupos estudados: grupo C/PRC (n=31) foi constituído por sujeitos que participavam na fase IV de um PRC há mais de um ano (idade: 58 + 10 anos); grupo S/PRC (n=31) foi constituído por sujeitos que não participavam em qualquer PRC (idade: 59 + 12 anos). Foi observada a composição corporal e distribuição de gordura corporal dos sujeitos da amostra, através da análise por Densitometria por Raio-X de Dupla Energia (DXA). Foram recolhidas medidas antropometricas. Resultados principais: sujeitos que não participaram em qualquer PRC apresentaram valores superiores, aos sujeitos do grupo C/PRC, nas variáveis massa corporal total (p<0,05), IMC (p<0,05), quantidade (kg) de massa gorda (MG) (p<0,05) e % MG (p<0,05). O grupo S/PRC tambem apresentou valores superiores de MG tronco (p<0,01), % MG tronco (p<0,01), MG abdominal total (p<0,01), % MG abdominal total (p<0,01), MG visceral (p<0,01), % MG visceral total (p<0,01), MG abdominal subcutânea (p=0,05) e na razao MG abdominal total/MG (p<0,05). Tambem foi possivel observar maior prevalencia de obesidade (IMC> 30 kg/m2) no grupo S/PRC (p<0,05), ou seja, neste grupo um em cada tres sujeitos era obeso, enquanto no grupo C/PRC apenas um em cada dez sujeitos foi assim classificado. Nao foram observadas diferencas significativas entre os grupos nas outras variaveis em estudo, incluindo a massa isenta de gordura total e regional. Conclusões: Os resultados encontrados permitem concluir que os sujeitos que não participaram em qualquer PRC apresentaram um perfil de composição corporal e de distribuicao de gordura corporal menos adequado a sua condicao clinica. A maior quantidade de gordura em depositos especificos, assim como os valores superiores encontrados na razao MG abdominal total/MG, confirmam que estes sujeitos apresentaram uma distribuicao de gordura mais adversa. Estes resultados vao ao encontro da tendencia observada em estudos de intervencao em sujeitos com DAC.